I'm sizing up an UNDER play in Friday night's game between Atlanta and Connecticut.
Today's Atlanta game barely crept over the total of 152 despite 82 points being tallied by halftime.
The Dream scored 16 points in the third quarter and only 14 points in the fourth quarter of a 77-76 loss to Chicago.
But here's the key to Friday's bet:
This is the fourth meeting between Atlanta and Connecticut over the last six weeks and both teams know each other well.
Several Atlanta players in recent seasons have played for Connecticut and vice versa.
Furthermore, the final score of their last meeting (78-75 in favor of Atlanta) is phony because 14 points were scored in the game's final 39 seconds.
Additionally, each team allowed 12 offensive rebounds that night and the WNBA shot clock resets to only 14 seconds after an offensive rebound, forcing teams to jack up another shot in quick fashion.
I assume a point of emphasis for both teams will be defensive rebounding.
Total was 151.5 in the last meeting and I expect a similar number this time around.
One sidenote: The coaches are best friends and I mean BEST friends as Curt Miller served as the best man at Nikki Collen's wedding.
The close relationship doesn't help our bet, but it's interesting nonetheless.