xpanda's week 6 picks

X

xpanda

Guest
Having a great season so far. It'd be nice to think I can keep it up, but I'm still waiting on the law of averages to kick me in the ass. Fade me if you think it's hot on my tail. :D

Week 1: 2-3
Week 2: 5-0
Week 3: 3-0
Week 4: 5-0
Week 5: 3-1

Season total: 18-4


Carolina @ Detroit -1

Every NFL expert out there is writing up Carolina like they're the Second Coming (this week at least) and talking incessantly about Detroit's issues at Receiver. All I know is that three weeks ago this line would have had Carolina favoured by at least 3, and now they are the dog going into what can only be called the Ugliest City in America. Folks are loving Carolina this week, seems too easy.

Pick: Detroit -1


Cincinnati @ Tennessee +3

Home dogs. Gotta love 'em. Especially since most people seem convinced that Cincinnati's loss last week some kind of fluke and that the REAL Palmer and Co. were the guys we saw through the first four weeks of the season. You know, as unimpressive as Tennesse has been this season, they are still far more experienced a ball club and well, they are a home dog against what I am convinced are pretenders.

Pick: Tennessee +3


Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh -3

Gawd, I am hoping this line moves half a point. I've been playing these three-point dogs all season on games where both teams are defensive grinders. I swear I'll be dead by Week 8 if this keeps up. Rationale: folks on Pittsburgh, so I'm not. Pretty straightforward.

Pick: Jacksonville +3 (waiting til Sunday morning, just in case there really is a god.)


Caveat: if Ken's prediction is correct, and the line on the Denver game moves to -3.5, I will take NE as well. Until then, I hate it.


Good luck to all!
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
thanks for these again, double popped the winners last week and will stay at the double pop level for these. you have made me much $$$$$.
 
T

Truthteller

2
I like the Jags pick but think Bengals win by more than 3. The Detroit/Carolina game I have no opinion.

BTW, my POW is Vikings +3.
 
X

xpanda

Guest
Caveat: not that it matters much, but I waited to bet Detroit until a few minutes ago, so have them at +1 now. Lots of shops showing +2, Bodog offering +2.5. Not sure now if that's public or sharp action causing this so I'm officially uneasy about the play.

FWIW.
 
X

xpanda

Guest
Phew! That makes me feel tons better. Nervous about them this week. Thanks!
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
We need a new contest, The SHRINK vs. The Fezzik vs. The Xpanda. While those guys hover around .500, they would be eating your dust. You go girl.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
xpanda said:
Caveat: not that it matters much, but I waited to bet Detroit until a few minutes ago, so have them at +1 now. Lots of shops showing +2, Bodog offering +2.5. Not sure now if that's public or sharp action causing this so I'm officially uneasy about the play.

FWIW.
Click to expand...

It does matter much. You are new so I will explain it. What you are doing, innocently I am sure is double dealing lines. You released Lions -1, then comeback and say, well I waited and now I can get +1. If the line went the other way, you would not have waited? I know you are a good hearted person, and that was not your intent. Just an FYI. Do not take it as a shot, just some friendly advice. Besides that, hope you sweep the board.

Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5


P.S. If The SHRINK tried that, the forum would crucify him.
 
X

xpanda

Guest
Gotcha, Frog. I tend to post my plays on Fridays/Saturday mornings but usually wait to actually play them until Sunday morning since I do the contrarian thing. When I said 'it doesn't matter much' I meant that the crossover from -1 to +1 isn't a huge deal, certainly not like going from -2.5 to -3.5.

But I completely understand what you're saying and will post in the future that I normally wait until Sunday mornings to place my bets. Fwiw, as far as my record here goes, I'm holding myself to the -1.

Good luck to you today!
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
It really is not what numbers are involved, it is the concept of getting the best of both worlds. If the line moved your way, you do not say I waited. Moves against you, well, I waited. I do not read you as that type of person. Like I said, no shot, numbers were lame anyway. But it did get to high 2 1/2. So anyone who went out and got the Det -1 was not in the happy camp. But you are cool, because you waited. It's not like you tried pulling a "SHRINK".

Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
X

xpanda

Guest
Frog!!! Holy crap, that +1 made ALL the difference in the world.

Hard lesson learned, but thanks for teaching it to me.

Shit day today, 1-2-1. Yech!

:hung

Sorry to those who followed ... hope your afternoon games work out well.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Tough taking any dogs today. Chalk was outlining all of the dog players corpses. Rare double middle on Lions game, side and total. Of course I had neither. You will bounce back as dogs will also.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
J

JJGOLD

1
Bubba you are correct

I bet she is a guy pretending to be a woman and it is amazing the guys here that fall for it
 
ZZ CREAM

ZZ CREAM

EOG Master
jjgold said:
Bubba you are correct

I bet she is a guy pretending to be a woman and it is amazing the guys here that fall for it
Click to expand...
Come on Bubba/JJ - You know you whack off thinking about XPanda! And maybe more if you thought she was a he!
 
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