HD's UFC 86 Picks

[Hoosier Daddy]

I separate them into bets and just picks (with no action):

Bets:

Main card:
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (-260) over Forrest Griffin
I hate laying this big #, but Rampage looks focused here and seems angry. An angry Rampage is a tough to beat Rampage. I think he finishes Forrest in R3.

Ricardo Almeida (-120) over Patrick Cote
The last time Cote fought a really good BJJ guy, he got dominated and submitted quickly by Travis Lutter. Lutter is very good on the ground, but not as good as Almeida. Cote on 4-match win streak, but pretty much off all of his wins were against guys that stand and trade (Scott Smith, Grove, McFedries).

Josh Koscheck (-295) over Chris Lytle
I love Lytle and know him personally. He is a tough guy too root against and he is impossible to stop in a fight. Kos's wrestling is on another level and I think he'll get a decision win here.

Gleison Tibau (+200) over Joe Stevenson
Tibau is a huge 155-pounder. Stevenson is off being destroyed by BJ Penn, which is not a bad loss. However, Joe has had a lot of camp changes and I think that can come into play here. Tibau lost a close dec to Griffin and I like his focus here.

Main card picks:
Tyson Griffin over Marcus Aurelio
I can't bet Griffin here b/c the line is way too high (-325 at some outs). Value players should go with Aurelio on principle alone. Griffin defends submissions well and I think Guida laid out the blueprint here to beat Marcus, by pressuring him on the feet.

Prelim bets:
Cole Miller (-140) over Jorge Gurgel
Gurgel is a great guy, but he is almost an automatic go against for me here. Miller is way too big for him.

Dennis Siver (+190) over Melvin Guillard
Siver is more well-rounded and I always question Melvin's mindset. Siver did get subbed by Jess Liaudin (which is bad), but almost choked out Gray Maynard. Good value play here.

Prelim Picks:
Gabriel Gonzaga over Justin McCully
I won't bet it here b/c McCully is a decent wrestler and could lay and pray and get a decision here (his only shot). However, this is set up for GG to get on track.

Corey Hill over Justin Bucholz
I can't lay -255 with Hill here. However, Hill has been destroying guys at the Miletich camp. Bucholz is experienced and Hill has only 2 pro fights, but Bucholz's level of competition is marginal at best.


GL

HD