Affliction: Banned and UFC Fight Night 14

[Hoosier Daddy]

Affliction: Banned (8 PM EST FSN and 9 PM PPV)
Bets:
Tim Sylvia +325 over Fedor Emelianenko
I think Fedor wins the fight via armbar, but good value here for Big Tim. I officially pick Fedor but am taking a flier on Tim for a small bet.

Ben Rothwell +225 over Andrei Arlovski
AA should win here, but he is also training for pro boxing and I question his focus. Rothwell dominated the IFL and finally gets a shot on the true big stage in a big league fight. Rothwell trains with Sylvia, who won 2 of 3 over Arlovski.

Mike Whitehead +215 over Renato "Babalu" Sobral
Whitehead is much better at 205 than Heavyweight. Only concern is that he has always choked in big fights. Whitehead is an outstanding grappler and Idon't seehim getting caught too bad in oneof Babalu's submissions.

Picks:
Josh Barnett over Pedro Rizzo
JB got knocked out by the Rock 7 years ago, the only guy to ever do it. This eats at Barnett and he is a much different fighter now.

Matt Lindland over Fabio Negao

Justin Levens over Ray Lizama

Mike Pyle over JJ Ambrose
Quick submission win for Pyle here.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Edwin Dewees
Mismatch of the weekend.

Paul Buentello over Gary Goodridge
Big Daddy Goodridge is a sub for Alex Emelianenko. The original fight got cancelled and Goodridge is an 11th-hour sub.

Vitor Belfort over Terry Martin
I question Martin's motivation here. He is also training for boxing. Belfort may have found a home at 185.

Mark Hominick over Savant Young
Coin flip here, but Young has had some family problems this year. I think he is just happy to be making some money.

UFC Fight Night 14:
Bets:
Frank Edgar (-150) over Hermes Franca
Hermes off his long suspension. Hermes throws looping punches that leave him open for takedowns. Edgar gets the takedowns and wins a decision.

Cain Velasquez (-265) over Jake O'Brien
Both guys were excellent collegiate wrestlers (Cain at Arizona St and Jake at Purdue). Cain is a much better striker (trains at AKA in San Jose) and wins this on the feet.

CB Dollaway (-160) over Jesse Taylor
Hoping third time is a charm. CB should outwrestle him here. He has to stay out of subs.

Brad Blackburn (-225) over James Giboo
Blackburn has fought better comp and finally gets his shot in the UFC.

Nate Loughran (-165) over Johnny Rees

Dale Hartt (+180) over Shannon Gugerty

Picks:
Anderson Silva over James Irvin
Irvin is easy to hit and that's not good against the best striker in MMA.

Brandon Vera over Reese Andy
Andy has a lot of potential and will continue to get better, but Vera comes in motivated off his controversial stoppage loss versus Fabricio Werdum. He's also back at his natural weight fighting at 205.

Anthony Johnson over Kevin Burns
AJ has devastating KO power. Burns pulled off the upset of the year subbing Roan Carneiro, a world class BJJ guy.

Tim Credeur over Cale Yarbrough
Fight was supposed to happen a few weeks back, but Credeur couldn't fight due to Adderall in his system. Huge experience edge here.

Rory Markham over Brodie Farber
Farber has fought a bunch of cans in Mexico. Markham is an IFL vet and trained with Pat Miletich and now trains with Matt Hughes.

GL
HD

P.S. I'll have DREAM 5 picks up Sunday.