Hopkins vs. Calzaghe

[RiverRat]

The brilliant Hunter S. Thompson once wrote that 'For a loser, Vegas is the meanest town on earth'. This Saturday night either Joe Calzaghe or Bernard Hopkins will find this out for themselves. Their light-heavyweight tussle at the Thomas & Mack Center has just about everything, pitting together two of the sport's most experienced champions.

In the one corner we have a man who ruled the middleweight roost for a decade (making a record 20 title defences) before seamlessly moving up to 175 and becoming that division's top dog. In the other corner we have a man who has defended his super-middleweight world title 21 times while remaining unbeaten in 18 years as a amateur and pro.

This man might just be the finest fighter ever to come out of the British Isles but nevertheless still needs a big win against a big name in America to get the universal recognition his prodigious talents deserve.

It's a battle between two countries with Hopkins continually asserting that he's going to win the fight for America. The race card has also been rather clumsily played by 'B-Hop' too after his now infamous assertion that he will "never let a white boy beat me". It's all bubbling nicely and the pair have been trading verbal jabs all week at the media gatherings scheduled to hype the fight.

Hopkins, perhaps sensing Calzaghe is holding all the aces physically in this one, is trying his level best to get inside the Welshman's mind, questioning the role of Joe's father as trainer and also belittling Calzaghe's achievements at 168. The Philadelphian will be mindful of how Ricky Hatton seemed to lose focus in the days leading up to his moment of truth against Floyd Mayweather in December.

The normally calm and mild mannered Hatton was wild-eyed at the weigh-in for his fight with 'Pretty Boy' Floyd, whooping and hollering with the fans and writing cheques with his mouth that sadly his fists couldn't cash. However Calzaghe is not Hatton. And you better believe Hopkins ain't Mayweather. He's a 43-year-old grandfather who has over-achieved fabulously in the past few years. But it's my belief that his brilliant career is going to end not with a bang, but with a whimper.

Calzaghe has remained aloof from all the media brouhaha this week. He seems to be taking it all in his stride and there is a steely determination in his eyes. The Welsh master is clearly here on business and doesn't want to merely get his hand raised against Hopkins. He's after making a statement to the boxing world.

As he said at a press conference on Thursday: "I don't just want to win. I want to knock this guy out and put him back into retirement." Bold words considering Hopkins has never been stopped in 54 pro outings. In fact he's never been on the floor since Segundo Mercado twice put him on his dish back in 1994. The Calzaghe KO win is available at +400 in places but that's not a bet that appeals to me.

For I see this fight as being more of a chess match. A chess match between brothers. One younger and more gifted and the other more gnarled and grizzled, willing to cheat and do whatever is necessary to get the victory. I'm convinced Hopkins will fight dirty and try and get Calzaghe off his game.

He did just that to brilliant effect against another southpaw in Ronald 'Winky' Wright last time out. Wright is a beautiful boxer, but he was clearly rattled by B-Hop's rough-housing, eventually losing clearly on points and finishing the fight with a nasty gash across his eye.

Hopkins will try the same with Calzaghe and it's up to referee Joe Cortez to be strong in the middle. He was very poor officiating Hatton - Mayweather, rarely allowing 'The Hitman' to work inside. If he allows Hopkins to get away with blatant butts and other rough stuff I imagine there will be a near riot, with up to 9,000 Brits expected to be watching the drama unfold in Sin City.

'Team Calzaghe' have been posing the question all week as to whether or not Hopkins will come to fight? Personally I just can't see it. Hopkins is a wily old veteran and one of the best defensive fighters in the game. There is a touch of the Archie Moore's about his defensive prowess and while both men are superb at adapting their game to whatever their opponents bring on the night and making essential adjustments mid-fight, with Hopkins it's all about shutting the other man down and taking away his major strengths by any means possible.

Against Calzaghe that will mean trying to negate that cultured jab, evade those blurring hands and trying to cope with the Prince of Wales' superb footwork.

Hopkins is far more than a mere spoiler. You don't beat men like Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad by spoiling. He works a lot of feints in fights, has decent power, a punishing jab and excellent foot and upper-body movement.

But in all his years he won't have fought anyone with the work rate of Calzaghe. Joe will set a hot pace at the start a la Jeff Lacy and maintain it throughout. It's my opinion that Hopkins would have struggled to deal with such a pace 15 years ago. In 2008? Forget about it.

I go for Calzaghe to be that much busier and while the old man will not go gently into that good night, Calzaghe will have too much speed and variety for his US foe and can win a fairly comfortable points decision.



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3 units Calzaghe to win by Decision at -120. Hopkins has been a great champion but youth will be served in Sin City.