Kelly Pavlik vs. Jermain Taylor

[RiverRat]

Kelly Pavlik vs. Jermain Taylor (Saturday 16th Feb 7:45pm PT)


Less than five months ago the pair squared off in Atlantic City and on that occasion it was Taylor who was holding all the aces. He was the undisputed champion of the world at 160, unbeaten in 28 fights and a big favorite with the odds men to retain his WBC and WBO titles.

However Pavlik battered him into submission in seven enthralling rounds at the Boardwalk, surviving a nightmare second stanza when he was down and almost out to finally realise his dream of becoming a world champion.

The 25-year-old from Youngstown, Ohio's life changed that night and he is now regarded as the best middleweight in the world, with Taylor demoted to the role of contender.

Their rematch promises to be special and there has been a buzz around the MGM all week ahead of this one. The question is, will it be revenge or repeat?

Taylor parted company with trainer Emanuel Steward after his defeat and is now back with old amateur handler Ozell Nelson. The pair have apparently gone "back to basics" for this one with Nelson promising that Taylor "will be in great shape". He may well be. But will it be enough?

Pavlik doesn't baffle them with science. He's an orthodox fighter with a decent defence and OK ring smarts. But the power he generates from that 6'2 frame of his is truly frightening. He throws straight rights and lefts and I believe he is one of the best pure punchers in the game.

In his last three fights he has knocked out Taylor, Edison Miranda and Jose Luis Zertuche. All three men had never been on the floor as pro's until meeting Kelly but all three ended up staggering down queer street after sampling his power.

Taylor was backing up and dropping his hands every time Pavlik threw a straight right in their first fight, a sure sign that Pavlik's power was troubling him. Psychologically I'm not sure Taylor has allowed himself sufficient time to recover from his first career defeat either.

Fair play to him for getting back on his horse and mixing it with the man who shattered his dreams without so much as a tune-up, but when you get brutally knocked out like he did (and the KO was brutal), sometimes you are simply not the same fighter.

There have been examples in history of a fighter being stopped first time round but going on to win the return, Tony Zale (v Rocky Graziano), Joe Louis (v Max Schmeling), Floyd Patterson (v Ingemar Johansson) and Lennox Lewis (v Hasim Rahman) all spring to mind. However generally when a fighter wins by KO first time round they usually repeat the trick in any rematch, and often do it quicker.

I fancy this to be the case in Las Vegas, especially given the fact that the fight will be made at 166. Boxing scribes reckon the extra six pounds with suit Taylor, who is a tremendous athlete and one of the finest physical specimens in the sport. But Pavlik is very tall for a middleweight and I expect him to be even more explosive given the fact he won't have to boil that tall frame of his down to the championship limit.

Kelly also has career momentum on his side. He is on a role right now, living the dream and badly wants to do well for the people of Youngstown, where it seems he is now second only to Jesus Christ in the popularity stakes.

Taylor, by his own admission, has never truly been in love with his trade, and the fact he is taking this return on so early has led to whispers in some quarters that he is merely after one last payday before walking away from the sport.

He is certainly not without hope and it must be remembered that he was one punch away from winning the fight in that second round last time out.

However the way Pavlik dealt with him after that suggests to me that he may just have his number. Taylor could be gunshy after that vicious KO in the seventh and if he is he's in a whole lot of trouble.

I wouldn't totally rule out Pavlik doing a job on Jermain inside two rounds and having won in this round on 12 occassions already in his career odds of 25/1 look more than fair to me. However, to make it simplier;

I fancy Pavlik to win and win by KO so the +100 quotes about him getting it done inside schedule look genuinely tempting. Pavlik has won every fight by stoppage since 2004 and he knows he can KO Taylor.




3 units Pavlik to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification at +100.

[Reload]

Thanks, RiverRat. Good writeup on this.

[The General]

GL