My MMA picks

[saku]

Hello

In this thread I'm going to post my MMA analysis and picks

We start with D R E A M 2

#1



Kiyoshi Tamura vs Masakatsu Funaki
Kiyoshi Tamura - Record 31 - 14 - 1 (Win - Loss - Draw)
Masakatsu Funaki - 38 - 12 - 1 (Win - Loss - Draw)

- Tamura has only lost three times via submission (Nogueira and Yoshida) - submissions are biggest weapons of Funaki
- Tamura is better striker and overall more solid fighter
- If Tamura win he's going to fight Sakuraba. He's very determinated and everyone is waiting for this fight
- both fighters have similar records but Tamura is active and Funaki has only fought once since 2000 year!

My pick: Kiyoshi Tamura - 1.58

pinnacle

#2

Zelg Galesic( 7 - 3 - 0) vs Magomed Sultanakhmedov(4 - 1 - 0)

- both guys are muay thai fighters but Sultan also has very good grappling skills.
- Zelg has reach advantage but Sultan will take this fight to the ground with his good takedowns
- Zelg still has very weak submission defense
- odd is worth to play

My pick: Magomed Sultanakhmedov 3.11

pinnacle

sorry for my crappy english

cheers

[saku]

My pick: Kiyoshi Tamura - 1.58

My pick: Magomed Sultanakhmedov 3.11

Tamura as I expected has won in less than a minute.TKO

Sultan has lost, afteir nice start. Zelg has submit him by armbar

[saku]

double post

[saku]

Tomorrow in Warsaw - Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki 9



One of the sponsors of the event is sportsbook betsson so they have odds up

So far I have chosen only one fight (later I will post more)

That should be easy fight for brazilian fighter. He have excellent jiu jitsu and very good takedowns.

Aziz Karaoglu vs Vitor Nobrega - 2.80 , 1.35

Later other KSW picks and also Cage Rage, MFC and ofcourse DREAM 3

[saku]

Daniel Dowda - Olexiy Oliynyk

Olexiy is a mma veteran with a 7-4-0 record. He fight since 1997. He is a winner of the last KSW 8 tournament. Now he also is an underdog. His opponent is a BJJ specialist without to much experience in pro MMA. He's a 4-0-0 but those fights wasn't professional. Three of them took place in one night. Oliynyk has large MMA experience, He's unpredictable and Daniel's strategy is very clear. He have very good takedown defence. Daniel still has no boxing skills and he has a glass jaw.

Daniel Dowda vs Olexiy Oliynyk - 1.67 , 2.00

[saku]

Daniel Dowda - Olexiy Oliynyk

Olexiy is a mma veteran with a 7-4-0 record. He fight since 1997. He is a winner of the last KSW 8 tournament. Now he also is an underdog. His opponent is a BJJ specialist without to much experience in pro MMA. He's a 4-0-0 but those fights wasn't professional. Three of them took place in one night. Oliynyk has large MMA experience, He's unpredictable and Daniel's strategy is very clear. He have very good takedown defence. Daniel still has no boxing skills and he has a glass jaw.

Daniel Dowda vs Olexiy Oliynyk - 1.67 , 2.00

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Aziz Karaoglu vs Vitor Nobrega - 2.80 , 1.35

Originally Posted by saku

Daniel Dowda vs Olexiy Oliynyk - 1.67 , 2.00

...

[saku]

Ok, not much time left so without analysis:

DREAM 3, Japan

Tatsuya Kawajiri 1.27
Luiz Firmino 4.38

Melvin Manhoef 1.24
Dae Won Kim 4.71

[saku]

double post

[The General]

Best of luck to you

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Tatsuya Kawajiri 1.27
Luiz Firmino 4.38

Melvin Manhoef 1.24
Dae Won Kim 4.71

Fail. Firmino has lost via decision. Won Kim was very close to, but made a mistake and also has lost. Thing worth to notice is that Manhoef 3 weeks earlier had very hard fight in K1 when he lost via KO. Afteir that he had blood drained from his lungs and was one week in hospital.. . >CLICK<

Ok, lets get it on:

World Victory Road, Tokyo, 5/17

Mike Pyle 1.275
Dan Hornbuckle 4.240

Yoshihiro Nakao 1.459
Jim York 2.980

Kevin Randleman 1.450
Ryo Kawamura 3.020

Satoru Kitaoka 1.313
Ian James Schaffa 3.900

all odds - pinnacle

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Mike Pyle 1.275
Dan Hornbuckle 4.240

Yoshihiro Nakao 1.459
Jim York 2.980

Kevin Randleman 1.450
Ryo Kawamura 3.020

Satoru Kitaoka 1.313
Ian James Schaffa 3.900

UFC 84

#1

Ivan Salaverry vs Rousimar Palhares



Ivan - MMA veteran with record 12 - 6 - 0 (Win - Loss - Draw). Rousimar is a young blood with record 7 - 1 - 0. I'm going with Rousimar, and that's why:

- Ivan is 37 years old
- Ivan fights once a year...
- Rousimar isn't that good stand up fighter as Ivan but it's going to be a ground battle where Rousimar have an advantage
- Rousimar have a bizzare strenght + he is very dynamic
- Rousimar have great submission skills, on the ground he is dengerous in every position. He is hard to submit - short arms and legs, strong neck
- Ivan is a experienced and smart fighter, I don't think he's going to risk injury by some leglock or other Palhares weapon
- Rousimar is coming from very strong Brazilian Top Team

Ivan Salaverry 1.75
Rousimar Palhares 2.24

#2

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs John Koppenhaver



Yoshida - 9 - 2 - 0
John - 5 - 1 - 0

Stawiam tutaj na japończyka:

- both guys are well rounded but yoshida has solid judo background
- John isn't that solid fighter as Yoshida
- John hasn't fought witch such a good fighter as Yoshida
- John isn't the guy that i can trust, he have troubles with the law, he isn't 100 % pro fighter
- That's Yoshida's debut in the UFC but he has fought in the octagon with the rules very similar to the UFC (elbows) and he know how to use fence in the fight

John Koppenhaver 2.51
Yoshiyuki Yoshida 1.62

No picks but suggestions and prognosis that might be helpfull:

Sean Sherk - BJ Penn 2,90 1,35

I'm staying away from the main card bouts. BJ is ofcourse favourite but this fight is going to be 5 x 5 minutes and in this time many things can happen. Sherk is hard to submit and he might heve better cardio

Keith Jardine - Wanderlei Silva 2,35 1,50

Odds are ok for wand buth he will have hard battle with Keith

Tito Ortiz - Lyoto Machida 2,70 1,40

Lyoto is ofcourse favourite, he is very wellrounded. Tito fights rarely but Lyoto hasn't fought that strong wrestler like him. No bet

Goran Reljic - Wilson Gouveia 2,10 1,60

Again no bet. Goran is very young and that's going to be his debut at such big competitions but he seems to be more solid.

Antonio Mendes - Thiago Silva 6,20 1,10

Antonio is coming from the Europe and that it will be his debut in the UFC. Thiago has been preparing for this fight in the US. No bet.

Kazuhiro Nakamura - Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou 2,90 1,35

Two judo players. Soko is better striker and its going to be a stand up fight. Naka is hard to submit and is much more experienced in MMA.If you going to put som cash on Soko, don't do it.

Terry Etim - Rich Clementi 2,70 1,40

Rich is much much more experienced fighter, he is stronger and more solid. And Terry is coming from UK so he might be tired

Jason Tan - Dong Hyun Kim 3,60 1,25

I don't know those guys

Shane Carwin - Christian Wellisch 1,50 2,35

No bet. I don't suggest carwin, his opponent has fought in MMA much much earlier than him.

[Hache Man]

Good Luck Saku

[4625]

Thanks for the contribution. . . .Good luck!

[saku]

[quote=saku lbn;290958]
[color=SeaGreen]Ivan Salaverry 1.75
Rousimar Palhares 2.24

[saku]

EliteXC, Saturday May 31 / 9 pm

Phil Baroni vs Joey Villasenor

Phil is a Pride FC and UFC veteran with mma record 10 - 9 - 0.

Joe is a former KOTC champion with the record 25 - 6 - 0

* Joe have much better cardio

* Joe is a technical and smart fighter while Phil is a typical brawler (all or nothing)

* Joe ismuch better on the ground

* Joe has only lost 3 fights since 2002 ( all 3 with the top fighters) and I don't see him loosing from the fighter like Baroni

Joey Villasenor - 125 (1.8)
Phil Baroni - 105 (1.95)

[4625]

Thanks! Good job on the previous winners!

[reigle9]

So is that the only fight you have for tonight? And are you making any picks for the WEC tomorrow?

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Joey Villasenor - 125 (1.8)
Phil Baroni - 105 (1.95)

TKO 1st round

Yes, that was the only one fight from this card worth to play

Unfortunatly I havent got time to focus at WEC card...

btw - all my picks and statistics you can check at mma4life - mma betting, odds, analysis and picks - Home

[reigle9]

I ended up going with Villasenor (-110) and Lawler. The Lawler-Smith rematch should have a closer line than this one was since it was so close. I'll be loading up on Lawler. I expect -170 or so.

When will you be posting the UFC picks for this weekend?

[saku]

I always put my bets just afteir weigh-ins but I suggest bet at Werdum now

[saku]

vs

UFC 85 Bedlam - London England, saturday, june 7

Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum vs Brandon "The Truth" Vera

Fabricio is a Brazilian jiu jitsu specialist ( two-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion, 2007 ADCC world champion, European Jiu-Jitsu champion, and a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in judo. ) with the MMA record 10 - 3 - 1.

Vera is a mixed martial artist with the record 8 - 1 - 0

* Werdum is a grappler but his standup has much improved since joining Chute Boxe

* He is taller and weights more than Vera who in my opinion fits more to the light heavy weight

* Fabricio has spend a lot of time in the Europe and that's going to be his fifth fight in England. This is going to be first overseas fight for Vera

* Fabricio has fought better strikers than Vera and he never lose via KO/TKO

* Vera might be a better striker but his stand up skills might be neutralized by the reach advantage

Pick:
Fabricio Werdum 160 (2.6)
Brandon Vera -200 (1.5)


vs

UFC 85 Bedlam - London England, saturday, june 7

Nathan Marquardt vs Thales Leites

Nathan Marquardt is a MMA fighter with the record: 26 - 7 - 2 (Win - Loss - Draw)
Wins 4 (T)
KOs (15.38%)
15 Submissions (57.69%)
7 Decisions (26.92%)
Losses
1 (T)KOs (14.29%)
2 Submissions (28.57%)
4 Decisions (57.14%)

Thales Leites - 12 - 1 - 0 (Win - Loss - Draw)
Wins 2
(T)KOs (16.67%)
8 Submissions (66.67%)
2 Decisions (16.67%)
Losses
1 Decisions (100.00%

Both fighters are submission specialists but Nathan is also very well rounded:

*great wrestling and solid striking.

* Leites have clear strategy - take Nate down where he feels more comfortable but:

- his takedowns arent his strong point

- Nate have great takedown defence

- His BJJ teachers are one of the best masters in the world, so there is nothing in Leite's ground game that might surprise him

- Nate has lost only twice by submission (all two with the great grapplers)

Pick:
Nate Marquardt -170 (1.59)
Thales Leites 140 (2.4)

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Pick:
Fabricio Werdum 160 (2.6)
Brandon Vera -200 (1.5)

Pick:
Nate Marquardt -170 (1.59)
Thales Leites 140 (2.4)

Werdum has won via TKO. gif #1 #2

Marquardt has lost via split decision. gif #1

Both fights was controversial. Veras stoppage was too quickly and Marquardt should win by unanimous decision.

[saku]

Dream 4

Saitama Superarena: Saitama , Japan - 6.15

#1



Gegard Mousasi vs Dong Sik Yoon

Mousasi is a mixed martial artist with 21 - 2 - 1 record.
Dong Sik Yoon is a great judo fighter with 4 - 4 record.

Classic striker vs grappler match. Mousasi is very dangerous in the stand up but:

* Dong is a world class judoka and he will take this fight to the ground

* Dong has defeated more aggresive strikers than Gegart (Manhoef, Galesic)

* when the fight go to the ground Dong should be on top and control the fight (points)

* in Dream first round lasts 10 minuts and this is more comfortable for grapplers

Pick:

Gegard Mousasi -210 (1.48)
Dong Sik Yoon +170 (2.7)


#2



Kazushi Sakuraba vs Melvin Manhoef

Another striker vs grappler matchup. I'm going here with Sakuraba because:

* Sakuraba is a world class grappler and Manhoef has no ground game

* Sakuraba have good takedowns, especially single-leg

* first round lasts 10 minuts and that should be enough for Sakuraba to finish Melvin when the fight goes to the ground

* Event is in Japan where Sakuraba is a legend and a host so judges might favourize him

* Manhoef not so long time ago was having big health problems (blood drained from lungs) so he for sure isn't 100 % prepared and also he have to travel to Japan from europe

Pick:

Kazushi Sakuraba +125 (2.25)
Melvin Manhoef -155 ( 1.65)


#3



Ronaldo Jacare Souza vs Jason "Mayhem" Miller

Another grappler vs striker fight. Jacare is one of the best grapplers on the planet. This is going to be his second MMA fight. Miller is a MMA veteran with 21 - 5 - 0 record.

* As fast as the both fighters hit the mat we don't need to worry about the result

* Millers takedown defence isn't his strongest point and Jacare have very good takedowns

* Jacares BJJ is very well adopted to MMA - it's a mix of great techniqe with dynamic strenght.

* Miller is a showman and showing off may cost him a lot

Pick:

Jason Miller +139 (2.4)
Ronaldo De Souza -149 (1.67)

[saku]

Dream - 1 won, 2 lost

#1

Jeremy Horn is a mixed martial artist with great mma record 79 - 17 - 5.

Dean Lister is a submission specialist with 10 - 5 - 0 record.

* Jeremy is a veteran and past his prime
* He has lost his last 2 fights via submission with worster submission fighters than Lister
* Lister is a stronger competitor and he should be on top during ground fight
* Lister seems to be a better striker

Pick:

Jeremy Horn -130 (1.77)
Dean Lister -110 (1.91)


#2

Dante Rivera is a bjj fighter with 10 - 2 - 0 record.

This is going to be first Matt Riddles pro fight.

* Dante have more experience and better ground game

* Matt hasn't fought in front such a big crowd

* Matt isn't just ready for UFC

Pick:

Dante Rivera +195 (2.95)
Matt Riddle -215 (1.47)

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Jeremy Horn -130 (1.77)
Dean Lister -110 (1.91)

Dante Rivera +195 (2.95)
Matt Riddle -215 (1.47)

Strikeforce 10

Billy Evangelista is a mixed martial artist with 6 - 0 - 0 record.

Nam Phan is a brazilian jiu jitsu fighter with 14 - 4 - 0 record.

I think that Billy is better in almost every aspect of the game. He's better striker and wrestler. Only one think that he have to do is avoiding Phans submission attempts.

Pick:

Billy Evangelista +120 (2.2)
Nam Phan -150 (1.67)

[saku]

Originally Posted by saku

Billy Evangelista +120 (2.2)
Nam Phan -150 (1.67)

decision

[saku]

I haven't got time to wrote analysis, but I was thinking about every single fight for a long time. Here we have my picks:

UFC 86

#1

Patrick Cote + 110 (2.1)

Ricardo Almeida -140 (1.71)

#2

Cole Miller -130 (1.74)

Jorge Gurgel EV (2.0)

#3

Marcus Aurelio + 200 (3.0)

Tyson Griffin - 260 (1.38)

#4

Corey Hill -230 (1.43)

Justin Buchholz +180 (2.8)

[4625]

Where are you Saku??