Fantasy preview: Talladega

[Ego74]

Fantasy preview: Talladega

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No matter what Mike Ford (crew chief for Denny Hamlin) may say, I love green-white-checkered flag finishes, and I hope they always remain part of the NASCAR rulebook.

Yes, the end result of overtime can be a number of wrecked cars (especially at Talladega and Daytona), but the positives of having cars racing for the win far outweigh that concern.

Let's rewind to why we have green-white-checkered flag finishes in the first place. The 2004 Aaron's 499 finished under caution, with Alabama Public Enemy No. 1 Jeff Gordon winning and the state's adopted son, Dale Earnhardt Jr., finishing second.


Beer cans and other debris littered the track as Gordon did his burnout -- the deluge fueled by the controversy that Earnhardt Jr. was leading as the cars raced back to the start/finish line following Brian Vickers' spin that brought out the caution. But since Gordon was ahead at the time the caution was called, he was given back the lead and won the race as the remaining four laps clicked off under yellow.


NASCAR had a rule at the time that the race could not be red-flagged to ensure a green-flag finish if the caution came within five laps to go. So based largely off of the circumstances of this race, overtime was installed in the Cup Series three months later to give fans a chance at a green-flag finish.
What causes the wrecks during overtime are the varying pit strategies teams can employ. Do you come in to take two tires or four? Do you stay out for track position, hoping you can hold off those with fresher tires? Do you have enough gas to account for overtime? All the strategy makes for riveting, white-knuckle finishes because drivers with fresh rubber can go faster because of the better grip. The chances that drivers can take in those situations can put others with older tires at risk.


That's why Ford is so upset, and it is an extremely valid point. Hamlin lost one spot at Texas because of contact with Clint Bowyer (who had new tires) during the overtime session earlier this month. But the greater injustice is not having a chance to see the best car race for the win. Even if the best car loses or wrecks as a result of this format, and it ends up costing fantasy teams (even mine), I have two words for you -- "That's racing."


Has a much better ring to it than "That's caution," doesn't it?


TOP TIER
Kurt Busch. It's not encouraging to see Busch struggle to find the handle on his cars lately, but he sure had a good handle on his car at Daytona when he pushed teammate Ryan Newman to the win. Busch always has been great at restrictor plate tracks, and owners should expect nothing less this time around.
Denny Hamlin. Tony Stewart is third in driver rating at Talladega, but he doesn't start winning until the summer. So I'm looking at Hamlin bringing home the win for Joe Gibbs Racing, because Kyle Busch's record at Talladega isn't good. Hamlin had a great car at Talladega and has shown strength at other plate races, including the 2007 Budweiser Shootout.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. We're still anxiously awaiting his first win with Hendrick Motorsports, and this is another great chance for him to do it. His value has risen over $500,000 since Bristol in Sporting News' Fantasy Stock Car Challenge, and it will continue to rise.
Jeff Gordon. Suspension problems robbed Gordon of a good finish in the Daytona 500, but you better believe those have been fixed by now. And I'm betting he has a good handling car come Sunday at this track, where he has had so much success in the past.


MIDDLE TIER
Jamie McMurray. I can't believe I'm writing about him after writing him off just a few weeks ago, but look who has the fourth-highest driver rating at Talladega. Roush Fenway cars aren't great at qualifying at plate tracks, but they do race well. McMurray is one of those benefitting.
Jeff Burton. His last three Talladega finishes (27th, 34th, 43rd) are Dave Blaney-bad, but I still firmly believe Burton is good to own at plate tracks. He usually stays out of trouble and is running at the end. Childress cars run well at plate tracks, too.
Casey Mears. If not for contact with Tony Stewart late in the Daytona 500, Mears would have had a top-10 or a top-five finish. This is his big chance to get back on track.


BOTTOM TIER
Michael Waltrip. Since he was locked into the top 35 after Bristol, I've had Waltrip on my roster and his value has risen nicely. But I plan to ditch Waltrip after this weekend. Waltrip has demonstrated he's worthless beyond plate tracks.
Robby Gordon. I enjoyed his top-10 run in the Daytona 500. Dodges were pretty good in that race, too. Gordon also has been good at Richmond, which is next weekend.
Aric Almirola. Heading into the Martinsville race, Almirola gained a whopping $1 million in value -- a one-day jump higher than any other driver in Sporting News' game. If you have extra trades to burn, pick up Almirola because he is sure to gain in value. However, realize that after Talladega, Almirola's next race will be at Infineon Raceway in June. This is a get-in, get-out situation.