If you followed EVERY line i made you would be 90-76 54% (+6.4 units)

[tool21]

This is from the last update that i made to the spreadsheet on 4.4. If you took EVERY opener and compared it to my projected line and bet that then your record would be 90-76 for 54.22% and +6.4 units in just 10 days.

Breakdown.

Spread Totals Overall that day
4.4 8--3 6--5 14--8
4.5 3--3 4--2 7--5
4.6 6--2 5--3 11--5
4.8 4--7 5--6 9--13
4.9 4--5 5--4 9--9
4.10- 1--2 1--2 2--4
4.11 6--6 8--4 14--10
4.12 6--3 5--4 11--7
4.13 3--3 2--4 5--7
4.14 4--4 4--4 8--8

45--38 45--38 90--76

0.542168675


Small sample size but as long as im concerned it works. Making a mechanical system that hits 54% over 100 plays is good enough for me. Now i just need to work on my situational angles and im golden. I wouldn't advise blindly betting on games without looking into them first, though. This just adds another dimension to capping. Mission accomplished see you all next NBA season. I'm taking a gambling break for awhile definetely no gambling over the summer. Maybe be back next football season, definetely be back next NBA/College hoop season when i build up enough money. Chao

[royalfan]

Would likely be an excercise in futility over time unless you know how to value injuries better than the books, and I doubt you do.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by royalfan

Would likely be an excercise in futility over time unless you know how to value injuries better than the books, and I doubt you do.

You may be right. But doesn't it make sense that those games in which there are injuries, the books set the line with those injuries (sometimes overreacting) and that the game would basically have a 50% chance of winning either side? Meaning that the games that have tons of injuries i will hit 50% while the games with no injuries i would hit higher than 50% (higher than 54% in my small sample size). True an injury filled season would completely ruin this but i didn't make this line projection to be used this way.

If you were around the forum long enough you would know i was very picky about which games i bet and which i didn't and I supplied a writeup with each bet and why i bet it. It really helps me from past experience to have a math model that I can count on. I think my spreads were like 13-4 while my totals i didn't check because those situations are a lot harder to find. Probably around 50%.

The main point i was trying to make was that the people who were looking at my lines (more than 150 views a day) could put their faith in them after doing their own homework.