NBA Playoffs

[Forecast 28]

Three team series parlay 8 units at + 120

Utah - 220 vs Houston
LA Lakers - 630 vs Denver
Orlando - 320 vs Toronto

Carlos Boozer should control this series down low vs overachieving
Houston....Denver defense highly unlikely to challenge Lakers'
offense effectively...Toronto not remotely close to early
in the season with disappointing play of No 1 draft pick
Andrea Bargnani and TJ Ford, and Dwight Howard is
ready to win his first playoff series.

Record to date: - 8.20

[dirty]

good luck man

[TheNJKid]

Had a good season for me and i never post my picks, but i'm going to do so. i wanted to pick my future plays and stay out of this playoff madness, but if i form a thread it will force me to play......

4/19

Mavs +5 (1)

still on the fence and about the utah line at PK now even with alston out for two games. i feel like the rockets try and come out like gangbusters tonight and try and negate that big boozer advantage.


**sorry dont know how i accidently posted this here!

[Forecast 28]

Note: I played a 1.00 unit average during the regular season with a
1.50 maximum but believe the prices currently are much
easier to beat and am moving way out to a 5.00 average and
a 10.00 unit maximum

Cleveland - 170 vs Washington (series play) 5.00 units

Washington's first mistake was to insult Cleveland and Lebron
James in pre series public comments, with Gilbert Arenas stating
that the Wizards wanted Cleveland in the first round and
DeShawn Stevenson claiming James was over rated...Their
second problem is that Caron Butler and Stevenson both
had problems coming back off their injuries in Game One,
and the Cavs seem to have a knack of beating this team
when they have to.

Utah + 1 vs Houston (Game Two) 10.00 units

The Rockets just don't appear to be a playoff team with both Yao
Ming and Rafer Alston out of their lineup, and the Jazz have something
to gain by sweeping, since the LA Lakers just might do the
same in their series.

Boston + 145 (to win the title) 8.00 units

The feeling here is that the Celtics are well above the rest of the
East, have done very well vs the best of the West during
the regular season, and will likely be the much fresher team
when the finals begin, if they are involved.

[KZBOLT]

GOOD LUCK

[Forecast 28]

New Orleans - 3.5 vs Dallas 1.50 units
New Orleans - 165 vs Dallas 1.50 units

Josh Howard did not show well in Game
One, the Kidd vs Paul defensive matchup is
a problem, and the Mavs have lost seven
playoff road games in a row.

[Micelli]

Nawlans ROLLS the Mavs tonight! bol

[Forecast 28]

Orlando - 6.5 vs Toronto 3.00 units
Orlando - 260 vs Toronto 3.00 units

Not buying the matchup of Rasha
Nesterovic vs Dwight Howard, and
Raptors have more issues than just
that.

[Forecast 28]

Philadelphia + 450 vs Detroit (Game Two) 1.00 units
Philadelphia + 10.5 vs Detroit (Game Two) 1.00 units
Philadelphia + 450 (series) vs Detroit 2.00 units

Rasheed Wallace looks like he has gained some weight
and Richard Hamilton may not be 100 percent after
late season injury.

Boston - 15.5 vs Atlanta 2.00 units

Mike Bibby is struggling with an ankle issue and
that presents major problems for Hawks.

LA Lakers - 360 vs Denver 2.00 units
LA Lakers - 8 vs Denver 2.00 units

Denver defense is just not very competitive
with the LA Lakers offense.

Note: Plays range from 1.00 to 10.00 units

[Forecast 28]

Cleveland + 190 vs Washington 6.00 units
Cleveland + 5.5 vs Washington 4.00 units

Washington is not in the healthiest condition
and has angered Lebron James.

Utah - 475 vs Houston 4.00 units

As stated before the previous games, the
Rockets lack the talent to compete effectively
with the Jazz, and would not look for a
letdown here from a Jerry Sloan-coached team.

Playoff record: + 16.70 units

Note: Plays range from 1.00 to 10.00 units

[Forecast 28]

Toronto + 350 vs Orlando (series) 3.00 units

Have an earlier series position on Orlando which I
will hedge out of since Jameer Nelson has a back
problem and Toronto playing very well since
switching to smaller lineup.

[Forecast 28]

LA Lakers + 1.5 vs Denver 3.00 units

Recognize Nuggets will be highly motivated
but can they do anyting with Kobe Bryant ?

[Forecast 28]

LA Lakers (2nd half) + 3.5 vs Denver 4.00 units

These two teams are not remotely in the same
class and the game is too close for the Lakers
to take it easy.

[Forecast 28]

Boston - 8 vs Atlanta 7.00 units

Atlanta having major difficulty getting
good shots off Boston defense, and
nothing should change at home.

[Forecast 28]

Cleveland + 5.5 vs Washington (second half) 4.00 units

Washington angered Lebron James again with
a cheap shot, Gilbert Arenas has been inept,
and Brendan Haywood and Dehawn Stevenson
have three fouls.

[Forecast 28]

San Antonio + 145 vs Phoenix (Game Four) 8.00 units

Spurs are in high gear, Suns are demoralized, and
here's a little known fact: Shaquille O'Neal teams
have been swept five times in the NBA playoffs.

[Forecast 28]

New Orleans + 5 vs Dallas (second half) 5.00 units

Dallas' roster does not measure up to New Orleans,
which arguably has four of the best five players
in this series.

[Forecast 28]

New Orleans - 7 vs Dallas 3.00 units
New Orleans - 300 vs Dallas 3.00 units

Dallas has shown no ability to compete
on this court in three tries since Jason
Kidd trade and crowd will be hungry
for a convincing win.

Detroit - 750 vs Philadelphia (series) 3.00 units

Played Phila earlier but want to get out even
with Pistons so dominant whenever in trouble.

[Forecast 28]

San Antonio - 200 (money line) vs Phoenix Game Four 2.50 units

Spurs did not lose two in a row in the playoffs last year,
and likely have a bigger talent edge in this series
than generally believed.

Utah + 100 vs Houston (money line) Game Five 1.50 units

Tracy McGrady playing with a sore knee that needs injections,
did not attend practice yesterday, and Utah needs to get
rest with Lakers' having swept.

[Forecast 28]

Cleveland - 240 vs Washington (Game Five money line) 2.50 units

Cleveland lost in this position to New Jersey last year, so good
situation for head coach to tell his team not to take this
game for granted...With Butler and Arenas not having proven
they are healthy, no reason for Wash to be given more
than a slight shot here.

[spartacus]

I went cle ML as well
got it at -225

[Forecast 28]

Detroit - 5.5 vs Philadelphia 1.50 units
Detroit - 250 vs Philadelphia 1.50 units

This has evolved into a talent overmatch,
and it appears Detroit can win and cover
any time they put in the effort.

[Forecast 28]

Washington + 410 (series) vs Cleveland 5.00 units

Originally played Cleveland for 5.00 units at - 170
after Game One, but things have changed...
Caron Butler came in at less than 100 percent
with a knee injury, and after playing below par
for four games, came up very big in Game Five...
The Wizards are also likely better off without
Gilbert Arenas, who was a defensive liability
and prone to turnovers...They also should get
a strong psycholgical boost from the way they
won Game Five, and may finally get over the
hump against their long-time nemesis...Either
way, I am setting up a break-even or a solid
profit with this lplay.

[Forecast 28]

Houston + 750 vs Utah (series) 4.00 units
Houston + 7.5 (Game Six) vs Utah 4.00 units

The basketball aspect of this series changed when
Rafer Alston returned after Game Two and he has
arguably outplayed Deron Williams in the past
three games...The psychological aspect of this
series also changed after Game Two, when Carlos
Boozer told the Houston players they would not
be returning to Houston for Game Five because
the Jazz would sweep...Tracy McGrady has
clearly outplayed Boozer thus far in this
series, and mentioned in the post-game press
conference after Game Five that the Rockets
have been using Boozer's statement for extra
motivation...You can be sure that he would never
have said those words with a 2-0 lead in a
series vs teams like San Antonio, the LA Lakers
or even Phoenix...Basically, he told the Houston
players he had no respect for their 22-game winning
streak, and they have shown him up to date...
Without Alston, the Rockets were probably a
No 9 team in the West, but with him, they
have been able to play at the Jazz' level or
higher for three full games...They are quicker
running the floor than Utah, and have been
outfighting them for rebounds...Maybe Utah
finds it tonight, but maybe they don't, and
the price is worth the play.

[Forecast 28]

Note: Apparently I had most of the first round figured out at the beginning
and wound up overanalyzing and overhedging as things evolved...
It's important to recognize that some of these games mean
far less to the team that is ahead and not to make
conclusions that are not deserved.

Assuming Boston wins tomorrow, all eight favorites will win their first
round series, and it could easily happen again in the second round.
But there may be a much better chance for upsets in the last two rounds.
I have San Antonio at + 460 to win the championship on a thread
posted right before the season for 10.00 units.

At this point, they are + 545 for the title and I will increase with an additional 5.00 units.


I will also take the Spurs to beat New Orleans at - 140 for 10.00 units
to win in this round...I think this is a major lack of respect for a
team that has won four titles vs a team that has no playoff
experience...The Spurs won as many games as the Hornets in
the regular season when they had little to prove while NO had
everything to prove...Now all motivation is leveled off,
the Spurs have the best player on the court in Tim Duncan,
and three of the best five with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili,
along with Chris Paul and David West...I believe they beat a
much stronger opponent in Phoenix than New Orleans did when
defeating Dallas...The Mavericks were severely weakened by
a Josh Howard knee injury, and had no big-time second player
to complement Dirk Nowitzki, along with a major lack of
production from Jason Kidd.

I will also take San Antonio in Game One tonight for 5.00 units
at + 130 on the money line.

I left the Detroit vs Orlando series price alone...The Pistons should win
if they play well, but they lost to a team they should have
beaten last year in Cleveland, and Dwight Howard may not
be that far away from Lebron James' level.

Back tomorrow for the Boston vs Atlanta Game Seven situation,
along with a pre-series look at LA Lakers vs Utah.

[spartacus]

I was leaning SA +130 myself

[Forecast 28]

Boston - 15 vs Atlanta 1.50 units
Boston - 8.5 vs Atlanta (first half) 1.50 units

Celtics have had no problems at home here
and Atlanta shallow rotation likely takes a
big if Marvin Williams is not right.

[Forecast 28]

Passing on Lakers vs Jazz series price although would be very
surprised if Utah is good enough to beat them.

[Forecast 28]

New Orleans - 145 (series) vs San Antonio 10.00 units

Taking a partial loss on the series play I made on San
Antonio after the highly unexpected events of Game
One involving TIm Duncan...May have misread
the impact of young legs vs older legs in this
series.

[Forecast 28]

Series parlay:

LA Lakers - 625 vs Utah
New Orleans - 285 vs San Antonio

Risking 14.20 units to win 8.00 units

Had San Antonio + 460 to win the
championship before the season but
did not know Pau Gasol was coming
to LA, or that the Hornets would be
this good...Spurs don't seem to have
the end-to-end quickness to handle
either of the above two teams...Also
was not expecting Tim Duncan to be
hit with 103 temperature right before
the start of the New Orleans series,
and now Hornets have major
control of the series...Utah simply
doesn't appear to have the right stuff
to deal with Kobe Bryant...

Tonight:

LA Lakers - 6.5 vs Utah 2.00 units
LA Lakers - 280 vs Utah 2.00 units

For reasons stated above.