Tool's 4.8 NBA lines

[tool21]

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Chicago -9 (-7.12)
Miami 182 (189.79)
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Phoenix -11.5 (-13.10)
Memphis 229 (224.13)
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Minnesota 198 (193.76)
Charlotte -3.5 (-6.03)
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Atlanta 213 (204.13)
Indiana -2.5 (-1.89)
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New York 193 (191)
Detroit -12 (-13.83)
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Utah 212 (208.56)
New Orleans -4 (-6.68)
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Boston -6.5 (-10.66)
Milwaukee 195 (194.79)
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Seattle 203 (203.79)
Dallas -18.5 (-16)
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LA Lakers -8.5 (-9.09)
Portland 202 (197)
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Denver -13 (-9.32)
LAC 213 (207.30)
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Sacramento 228 (230.20)
Golden State -10.5 -(6.52)
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[tool21]

1. Miami over 185

[tool21]

Teams on the bubble:

Atl
Ind
NJ
Chi
Dallas
Den
GS

[cassiusclay]

tool...can miami score 80 tonite?

[cassiusclay]

out of all of your lines the under in indy/atl looks the most attractive..

[tool21]

cassiusclay, for unders i use a line difference of 10. Mainly because the lines are derived from season averages. Most games have fouling in the end but averages don't show this because there are games in which hardly any fouling occurs. I use a difference of 5 for overs hoping to get fouling in the end. Games usually end in fouling unless its a HUGE blowout.

That Atlanta game allready started. Line opened at 213 closed at 211.5 My lines are sharp but totals are extremely hard to cap because both teams get the same possesions. So if you guess 1 possession off the total will double. Guessing just 5 possessions off in a game where theirs 85 possessions is equavalent to about 10 points. Thats a big difference for only being 5 possessions off. Just imagine being 7 possessions off and both teams have FGA 5% higher than normal. You're talking atleast 20 points or so off your estimated total. They are REALLY hard and frustrating. Sides are much easier but my lines are too close to the books alot of the time.

I think Miami can put up 80. Their last few games are skewed because they've played boston and detroit twice. The best 2 defenses in the league. Throw those games out they've scored 95, 77, 85, etc. Miami likes to play at other teams pace. Chicago's pace is about 2 possesions higher than the league average. I'm hoping Miami won't play defense. They don't need to. They have nothing to play for. Just make baskets!! It's fun to do!

[cassiusclay]

good stuff, thx

[tool21]

See, i had this Chicago-Miami game at 93 possessions. At half time they have 44.2 which projects to 88.4 About 5 possessions low but the game is projected at 184. Chicago is shooting better than expected. If Miami can keep this game close they'll foul at the end which adds more possessions and this game goes over. Miami needs to keep it close though!

[tool21]

2. Sac +14

Line way to high as an overreaction to Golden State needing a win. I have the line at 6.5 Sac has a few injuries but not enough to warrant 8 points of value...

[cassiusclay]

nice call on sacramento, at the opening line you would have won miami and the atlanta game would have hit also. good stuff, i will check out your thread again tonite.