Tool's NBA line predictions for remainder of playoffs

[Finance]

Very nice call last night Tool - I liken it to the Shrink's Denver under when everyone screamed for the other way...

[tool21]

5.9

I'm gonna pass today unless some lines change a bit. According to my sources the spread opened at Utah -3 and is currently Utah -5. You're a donkey if you play that line. Do I think they're gonna win--yes. Do I think they're going to win by more than 3--yes. Do I think they're going to win by more than 5--it's a coinflip and i won't bet those. Looked into the moneyline and it shows an even worse equivalent of 5.5 Maybe the under if people bet it up more. I'm on a roll and don't want to make stupid bets. Wow did i just say that?? Takes some balls to take a day off.

[tool21]

I'm so close on these predictions it's scary.....contemplating on shutting these projections down for my own use. What a great "tool". I will still post the bets with the most value.

[JTGAMBLE]

Takes some balls to take a day off.

[NowshesmyRuca]

Ya this guy cracks me up!

[tool21]

Originally Posted by JTGAMBLE

Takes some balls to take a day off.

Seriously though man.....40 games in 40 days with the NBA. It's addicting as hell i'm not gonna lie. Buddy got a 96 inch HD projection TV and it's ridiculous. So nice to watch these games on. I couldn't tell you how many times I thought about betting today and then said "don't do it!!". Hard as hell not betting an NBA game when you LOVE watching it!

[tool21]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

Ya this guy cracks me up!

I'm glad I amuse you!! Everyone could use a good laugh. Life is too short.

[crazytrain]

Good job Tool, looks like your'e getting that system fine tuned. Tough night for me, bit I'll recover.

[tool21]

5.10

==================================================
Detroit 187 (190.14 +- .44)
Orlando -3.5 (-1.63 +- .44)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Boston 175 (186.47 +- .68)
Cleveland -1 (+6.52 +- .68)
==================================================

[GT4224]

tool- been right on lately, its scary.. so if understand correctly according to the numbers the plays may be Boston /Det. or am i looking at the chart totally wrong? good job keep it up!

[tool21]

Originally Posted by GT4224

tool- been right on lately, its scary.. so if understand correctly according to the numbers the plays may be Boston /Det. or am i looking at the chart totally wrong? good job keep it up!

You're correct, it shows Boston and Detroit with value. If you didn't already, make sure you read the very first post i made in this thread which explains everything. One thing i talked about was home court advantage in the playoffs and that i only like betting home teams who are getting value and i explain why. Today, that would be neither because the chart says the away teams have the value.

I wouldn't bet Boston because Cleveland is down 2-0 and they're desperate for a win while Boston might come out lax because they have the early lead.

I wouldn't bet Detroit because Orlando plays decent ball at home and is still down 1-2 and are very capable of covering this spread at home. Also Chauncey's leg is iffy.

You just never know how the away teams are going to play. But you do know that the home team will more than likely come out blazing!

[GT4224]

yeah, home teams have been money these playoffs, specially down 0-2 but i just couldnt pull the trigger on Cleveland before i looked at this post so that just sealed the deal..well GL the rest of the playoffs ill be keeping an eye out.

[JuiceHead]

Thanks for sharing, your numbers have helped. Unfortunately, I made my plays last night and now find myself on the opposite side of both games. I hope it's a good fade day.

A couple of two teamers for me:
Orlando -5 / Over 187
Cleveland -1.5 / Over 176

GL

[tool21]

5.10

Boston @ Cleveland over 177 (-105) *.5

The previous 2 games in Boston have the biggest impact on this very low total. Boston with a 2-0 lead in the series will come into this game relaxed and their defense will soften up as it tends to do away from home. Last series when Boston played in Atlanta every game went over the total after 2 unders in Boston. It's just how Boston plays. They take tremendous pride in owning teams at home and they don't let up. Completely different story on the road. I think if Cleveland wants to win this game they have to pick up the pace of the game, sorta like Orlando is doing to Detroit. Cleveland will break out of their dry spell as they come home to play against a much less aggressive Boston defense. I can see both teams in the 90's for this game. Hopefully the game stays close and it gets some fouls in the end of this one to send it over!!

[tool21]

Good luck juicehead!

The line projections only work if you can back it up with a good situations. I can see both home teams with more to play for so it's an easy pass for me on those games.

[tool21]

Nothing else going on today....will have a 1 unit play tomorrow.

But for right now, let's get that over! Line moved 2 points since this morning, that can't be a bad thing. Also forgot to put in the post Ben Wallace isn't playing today which lowers Cleveland's defense but raises their offense. Should help the over.

Hope you all are having a good, relaxing Saturday. I know i am. Time to keep this streak alive!

[tool21]

Another winner. Do the playoffs get any easier?


5-1 +2.9 units


Totals might be on point right now...might have to up them to a full 1 unit instead of a half. That upgrade really helped!!!

[JTGAMBLE]

nice keep it going mayn

[IDENTITY]

tool - very nice work.

[tool21]

Thanks JT and Identity. I plan to keep it going but we'll see what these teams think about it. Numbers don't lie.

[tool21]

Overnight play for 5.11

LA Lakers @ Utah -2 *1

There is absolutely no reason why this 37-4 home team is only favored by 2 against a Lakers team that they beat by 5 last game. I was hesitant to bet Utah last game when the spread was -4/-5 and Utah ended up winning by 5. Good call on my part to pass. That cover on the spread could have went either way. But this -2 line you have to go with Utah. Public is all over Lakers which makes me feel great about this play. Also the line opened at -2.5 and is available for -2 as i type this out so that's better value. Seems like everyone thought Lakers would take a game in Utah, and it wasn't the first game so it'll be the 2nd game, right? Wrong. Utah by at least 4.5

Best of wishes!

[SSI]

down to (-1.5) tool. i have no opinion on this one....

any thoughts on the NO/SA game, im on the hornets (+1.25) for the series.

also do you think the Cav's even the series with the celtics?

[tool21]

SSI,

I think SA evens up the series but because New Orleans has home court I think they win. +125 for the better team is always a good bet. CP3 is just ridiculous and I think San Antonio is a bit washed up. Not washed up like they won't compete but New Orleans is just as good of a team when it comes to fundamentals but they have younger, more energetic, faster players.

I don't think Cav's win the series. Boston is just too dominant at home. They don't need to win road games to be honest with you. They can win all their home games and win a championship. The spread for Boston in game 5 and 6 should be around -9/-10. If it's anything below that i'll be taking Boston ATS. If Cleveland can win in Boston then congratulations to them they really earned it. But i think this series will be just like the last one with Atlanta and Boston.

[tool21]

5.11

==========================================
LA Lakers 212 (210.30 +- .43)
Utah -2.5 (-5.03 +- .43)
------------------------------------------------------
New Orleans 185 (183.43 +- .71)
San Antonio -5.5 (-3.33 +- .71)
==========================================


Writeup on Utah play is above.

[IDENTITY]

ssi - san an will win that seeries, sir.

[NowshesmyRuca]

Pure comedy!

[tool21]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

Pure comedy!

I bring all sorts of excitement to this forum!! Some i make money for, some i give insight to, and some i amuse. Glad i could be of service!

[SSI]

tool, im still going to disagree about cleveland. Let me ask you a question.

Ive got them at ($100 to win $600) for the series, do you think this bet had Value?

[tool21]

Originally Posted by SSI

tool, im still going to disagree about cleveland. Let me ask you a question.

Ive got them at ($100 to win $600) for the series, do you think this bet had Value?

SSI, if the series goes 3-3 the last game will be played in Boston. Like i said in the post above, the spread is probably going to be around Boston -9 give or take. The series price you bet +600 has an equivalent spread of Cleveland 9.5. I'm not a series better so i can't find the exact value on it but to me it would seem like this price you bought it at is right where it should be and there is no big value either way. I would never bet on such a highly favored team (-600) if anything i would have bet Cleveland. +600. Anything can happen in basketball but i thought i would put some math behind it. You basically bet on a game 7 in Boston ML for Cleveland if it makes it that far.

[tool21]

Utah is down to -1, now im pissed. Wish I could have that 1



74% on the Lakers. GET EM BOOKS!! Baited and hooked. (Hopefully) I'm way to pumped up for this game