Ride me through the playoffs

[spartacus]

I like new orleans tonight
like orlando last night
time to finish

[tool21]

"1-0 not sure if I will have a play tomorrow. clover keep me updated on how that whole goat things works out for you. Ill be here making $"


Your current record is 11-10 for +- 0 units if you're a flat better. Games posted after the game has started doesn't count. Good luck today!

[NowshesmyRuca]

12-10 +$500 had a bit of a set back the passed cpl days.

Play on Hou -1.5

[NowshesmyRuca]

13-10 +$1,000

The 1st round has historically been my toughest.

Play on Wash +5

[NowshesmyRuca]

Play on Bos -14

[NowshesmyRuca]

Just to let you guys know Im taking the Wash ML 500/1125 not making it an official play but how can we pass this up! Wash has a 50/50 chance to win this game and were getting 2-1 you have to be kidding me! Vegas is a way off.............again.

[NowshesmyRuca]

Play on Bos -8 1st half

[JTGAMBLE]

goodluck tonight

[NowshesmyRuca]

16-10 +$2,500

[NowshesmyRuca]

Almost done with this god forsaken 1st round. Its always the roughest. Just a warning to all those that are paying any attention to these idiots with the "line projections" these are the guys that get swallowed up and shit out this time of year. I would hate to see you put down your hard earned $ following the "crap" they print out on a spreadsheet. Stick with me and in the end we will prosper. Signed- A real handicapper

[spartacus]

I look at that spreadsheet crap just to get an idea of where the line is coming from

[tool21]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

Almost done with this god forsaken 1st round. Its always the roughest. Just a warning to all those that are paying any attention to these idiots with the "line projections" these are the guys that get swallowed up and shit out this time of year. I would hate to see you put down your hard earned $ following the "crap" they print out on a spreadsheet. Stick with me and in the end we will prosper. Signed- A real handicapper

Good luck today man. I know your new here so I'll just let you talk all you want. Just because you don't believe in making line projections doesn't mean you have to bash those that do. I wouldn't continue to post if it wasn't working. I've had much success being selective. 25-11 in NCAAB including tournaments. 14-4 being selective in NBA. All verifiable on this forum. I haven't had a play so far this playoffs so i don't see where you come off bashing saying it's crap....you shouldn't be gambling if you bet on a team with .5 points of value when they have injuries and are winning the series playing on the road.....it isn't just all numbers. There's plenty more that goes in betting games. I don't post the lines and say to the viewers "BET EVERY LEAN I HAVE". I do keep track of every lean just so i know i'm working with something that has shown at the higher end is beats 52% It is a tool to use to gauge how teams play. You look at the line and say to yourself, "why is this line so far off?" and if you figure out why, you pass, if you can't figure out why, you bet it. Most of my projections are within 2 points of the spread so when a game is more than 5 points off i look into it. The closest play i've had in the playoffs was yesterday on Boston with 5.37 points of value but i didn't want to lay 14. It was an easy winner. But i do have one today on Philadelphia. If you know why this line is so far off please let me know. This is a forum, we help each other out. I was thanked yesterday for saving a guy from taking ATL +14. Looks like i'm contributing to the forum.

[spartacus]

you were right about boston for sure

[NowshesmyRuca]

Originally Posted by spartacus

I look at that spreadsheet crap just to get an idea of where the line is coming from

I dont know if your new at this but the spreadsheet crap has nothing to do with where the betting line comes from.

[spartacus]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

I dont know if your new at this but the spreadsheet crap has nothing to do with where the betting line comes from.

they start somewhere and then tune it for considerations

[tool21]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

I dont know if your new at this but the spreadsheet crap has nothing to do with where the betting line comes from.

Then throw some bones our way. If you're just telling us we're all wrong then tell us how we're supposed to do it right? Just saying 'you guys are wrong' doesn't really help anybody out.

[spartacus]

btw I said 'crap' as an opinion on relying on stats to handicap
I view the stats and/or line as the 'market rate'
I try to beat the market by playing the other factors
morale
home-away situations related to the best of 7
etc.

[spartacus]

a couple years back I was making lines for the division II NCAA football playoffs
I didn't know diddly about the teams
I found some power ranking tables online
matched up the teams and adjusted for home +3
and that gave me a number to start with
then I looked into the teams recent games and moved that number some with an eye towards the more important figures (i.e. 3,6 & 7)
added or subtracted a hook maybe

the group I was doing this for complimented my work and the betting fell fairly equally
which means my numbers were pretty good
many of the games were in doubt spreadwise into the 4th qtr

but I started with some power rankings

[NowshesmyRuca]

Wow! Are you serious right now? You think they run million and even billion dollar wagering businesses by plugging some #s into a computer like any monkey can do? 1st off they make fortunes off of guys like Tool sorry Im not here to hurt your feeling but its true. They have handicappers that break things down alot like I do but with 1 major difference they have to have an idea what the "betting public" will do. The whole notion that they try to get 50% on both sides and just take out the "Juice" for the service is a farce. If they see an angle that they dont think the general public will see the line will be set and the public will be on one side and they take a gamble. Keep posting your spread sheet it doesnt bother me at all I was just warning others not to blindly be betting on basis of what #s some monkey put in a computer.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by spartacus

but I started with some power rankings

Not knocking you, but power rankings and flat home court advantage are overrated in my book. It's all about the matchups. What if team A plays great on the road and Team B plays worse at home...home team shouldn't be awarded 3 free points. Home court has to be calculated with previous stats.

Power rankings don't touch on the match ups either. You basically give a team a statistical number and it's the same against every team. That shouldn't be. That number has to change according to the strengths and weakness of each team they play.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca

Wow! Are you serious right now? You think they run million and even billion dollar wagering businesses by plugging some #s into a computer like any monkey can do? 1st off they make fortunes off of guys like Tool sorry Im not here to hurt your feeling but its true. They have handicappers that break things down alot like I do but with 1 major difference they have to have an idea what the "betting public" will do. The whole notion that they try to get 50% on both sides and just take out the "Juice" for the service is a farce. If they see an angle that they dont think the general public will see the line will be set and the public will be on one side and they take a gamble. Keep posting your spread sheet it doesnt bother me at all I was just warning others not to blindly be betting on basis of what #s some monkey put in a computer.

Ok, so using your theory i think Detroit -5 is a trap. 75%+ (showing 85% at one book) of the public is on them on the road when they haven't won in Philadelphia yet in the playoffs. The public thinks Detroit is gonna role because they blow Phili out at home and Philadelphia just doesn't have the talent. Bullshit they play just as good ball as Detroit. You were on Boston yesterday and i showed a ton of value on them as well. I don't think there's much difference between your 'theoretical' lines and my statistical lines. It all points to a sucker bet.