Tool's NBA line predictions for remainder of playoffs

[tool21]

I just want to keep everything in one thread rather than starting a whole bunch of them so I'll be posting my line predictions and plays if I come across em all in this thread.


PLEASE READ!!

I cap these games based on stats throughout the entire season. I feel spreads are the easiest to predict. I will not ever consider a game in which a key player is not playing; throw the game out. In the event that a starter is hurt at the beginning of the season and then enters the lineup late in the season i will play this game. He's normally a starter for a reason, and him being in the lineup can only help the team out. Even this type of event doesn't happen to often. No injuries, bottom line. As far as totals, i try to stay as far away from them as i can. They are twice as hard to cap than spreads, IMO. You have to be know not only the injuries of the one team, but injury situations of both teams, you have to know the coaching strategy, and you have to guess the pace of the game as well as how teams are going to shoot. This does not interest me with all these variables and i'd rather stick to just keying in on one teams injuries and not caring about the pace. Situations are also not included in my lines. Teams on a B2B or a team that is down 3-0 in the series and needs a win would be examples. Do that kinda stuff on your on. I am only here to provide line projections based on how a team has played in the past of the entire season. For regular season play home court is already factored into the lines. For playoff play, the home team spread will more than likely be different than what it should be because home court is based on seasoned stats, not playoff stats. Home teams tend to play better in the playoffs/away teams play worse than they would in the regular season but this isn't reflected as much as it should be in the projections. For this reason I will stick with home teams in the playoffs.

the first number is the books opener. The number in () is my line projection. I'm going to add another number to the right of my projection which is the error of averaging. It's a plus a minus deal. Add this and subtract this to the spread or total to see the prediction.

[tool21]

5.4

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San Antonio 183.5 (182.00 +- 1.23)
New Orleans -3.5 (-4.35 +- 1.23)
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Orlando 188.5 (192.02 +- .73)
Detroit -6 (-2.89 +- .73)
================================================

New Orleans -3 *1

They have value as a home team.

[tool21]

A little look-ahead

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Atlanta 190 (184.18 +- .50)
Boston -14.5 (-16.44 +- .50)
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Utah 212 (217.12 +- 1.12)
LA Lakers -7 (-7.56 +- 1.12)
=========================================

These projections may change slightly overnight.

[tool21]

5.5

==================================================
Atlanta 190 (184.21 +- .50)
Boston -14.5 (-16.43 +- .50)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Utah 212 (217.14 +- 1.10)
LA Lakers -7 (-7.53 +- 1.10)
==================================================


No way i lay 14.5 in a playoff game with Boston even though they show value. LA Lakers line looks like it's right on. Line is -7.5 right now so no go on the spread with that. I might lay some heavy ML chalk with them or parlay with the penguins today.....not sure yet.

[tool21]

Overnight bet for 5.6

New Orleans -2.5 (-105) *1

New Orleans beat San Antonio last game by 19 points and the books lower this line? If anything they should of made it higher. New Orleans matches up great against San Antonio and they should get it done at home. The line opened at NO -3 and dropped to -2 at some places. I don't expect this line to stay this low. New Orleans by at least 3.5

Projections will come tomorrow.

[tool21]

5.6

============================================
Orlando 185 (190.70 +- .56)
Detroit -5.5 (-3.34 +- .56)
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San Antonio 182 (181.76 +- 1.31)
New Orleans -3 (-5.04 +- 1.31)
=============================================

[tool21]

Easy winner.

2-0 +2 since the comeback.

[tool21]

Overnight play for 5.6

Boston -9.5 *1

I really don't think Cleveland is that much better on the road than the Atlanta team that got their ass beat over and over in Boston. I think this team is now on a mission, kind of like the Patriots in regular season NFL. Something to prove. People are doubting them after they 'barely' made it past Atlanta. They play great ball at home and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't lose a game there all playoffs. I hate fading King Lebron because he could take charge if his teammates play poorly but this Boston team is the total package and Cleveland has shown in the past that they struggle playing on the road. They out man Cleveland at almost every position and have better bench depth. I just can't see Cleveland hanging around with Boston in this game. Home team in the playoffs getting value, no brainer. Winning by 9.5 points is very achievable for this Boston team who should blow Cleveland out. Boston by at least 12.5

[tool21]

5.6

===========================================
Cleveland 184 (182.29 +- .69)
Boston -9 (-13.32 +- .69)
===========================================

[Finance]

Good Luck Tool - nice little run...

[tool21]

Originally Posted by Finance

Good Luck Tool - nice little run...

Thanks finance. Hopefully it stays consistent. Good luck with your bets tonight.

[tool21]

I need you EOG guys to do me a huge favor......but on Utah tomorrow so i can get a better line. Thank you!

[SSI]

fate finds us on opposite sides tonight, good luck sir. i have clev +10.5 (-1.20) so there is a chance we both win, albeit slim.

[tool21]

Originally Posted by SSI

fate finds us on opposite sides tonight, good luck sir. i have clev +10.5 (-1.20) so there is a chance we both win, albeit slim.

Good luck to both of us. But why buy a half point? You should know it's like playing blackjack with a 49% chance every hand.....puts you at a disadvantage even before the game starts. That's 20% man.....10% is even too much.

You gotta think of it as, "Would you play a 55% chance game and then pay 20% of you won?" I'd want you playing at my book if you were doing that.

[SSI]

normally wouldnt do it but ive been on a big run and had a hunch, so went with it. not the norm.

[tool21]

That was such an ugly game......i'd be happy if i could say i capped that game right but i really have no idea. Boston up by 10 at the end of 1 but gives the lead away. Couple questionable calls also that could have given Boston the cover (Ilguaskis should have got T'd up for kneeing Casell just 1 ex.). But on the other end Cleveland shot terrible. I really don't know what to say about this game. Time to move on.


2-1 +.9 units

[tool21]

5.7

============================================
Detroit 186 (189.91 +- .53)
Orlando -3 (-.77 +- .53)
--------------------------------------------------------
Utah 211 (216.81 +- .99)
LA Lakers -8 (-7.45 +- .99)
============================================

[tool21]

I just can't help myself on this bet.....only .5 because i hate betting totals.

1. Utah @ Lakers over 211 *.5 units

Last game the total score was 207, under the total. In that game the pace was slower than projected, Utah shot 38% from the floor 21% from 3, had 13 TO's put up 98 points and it only missed this total by 4 points. I think Lakers will let up their defense a bit with that 1-0 lead and offenses will go to town in this game. Lakers like to push the ball while Utah likes to play at the pace of their opponents. Utah will break 100 tonight and the Lakers will break 110. My projection says at least 216 so I'll take 5 points of value and hopefully get some good fouling and free throws to take this baby over!

[SSI]

Tool, my best to you as well..

My play for the evening came down to (one of the 2 Overs), i chose the first game but my gut says both go Over.

I think the Magic will win tonight but this will be their only win.. however you cannot bet them because detroit is the better team...... you also cant bet detroit because Orlando is in the better situation. this game for me was an easy pass.

the 2nd game, i think the Lakers win it............. will they cover again? i dont know, so thats why i couldnt bet that one either.


anyway, good luck Tool, hope we both cash.

[tool21]

SSI,

I don't know if you make your own lines or not, but everything you've just said is exactly what my line projections say

Detroit is the better team, but they're playing in Orlando and the Magic are desperate for a win. Total leans towards over.

Lakers at home, the line is right where it should be but Lakers allready covered last game so adjustments made by Utah might keep this close. Total leans towards over.


You took Det over, I took LA over. Both solid plays in my book.

[JTGAMBLE]

GOODLUCK YALL

[SSI]

Tool, i did think that detroit would win this in 5 but with the injury to chauncey, orlando is back in it.

i cant stay up to pull the lakers game in for you.

Lakers will probably win the game but it could set up utah for game 3 at home to get their only win of the series.