My Legendz Contest Thread

[Coast2Coast]

These are my five picks for the EOG/Legendz picks contest. Didn't realize until I re-read the rules that we had to have separate threads for the two NFL contests.


NY Giants -3 vs. St. Louis
Looks like another typical year for that enigma known as the St. Louis Rams. Mike Martz may think he’s a genius, but he exposes his QBs to pass rushes far too often. The guy is so interested in getting every back and receiver into pass patterns that pass protection suffers. To wit: the Rams have allowed 15 sacks in 3 games. Last week Bulger had 8 negative plays (sacks, ints, fumbles) and the offense had 3 TOs in their own end that set up 13 points for the Titans. That’s not a good thing against an aggressive Giants D. SD ripped the Giants D last week, but St. Louis doesn’t have the kind of power running game that SD has. They could have one, I suppose, as they have a quality back in Jackson. But Martz insists on running him mostly on delays, draws and screens, rather than on power sweeps and dives inside the tackles. And their O-line spends so much time in pass protection, it doesn’t have the smashmouth mindset necessary to run the football. And let’s not forget that SL is usually a very different team outdoors than it is on its dome carpet. I lost on the Giants last Sunday night, but that doesn’t deter me here. Even in defeat last week, Eli Manning showed his skills are progressing rapidly. He not only has a better upside than Bulger, he may be a better NFL QB right now. The Rams defense is last in the league in sacks, so Eli may have time to find open receivers. Finally, the situation is a good one for the Giants. The Giants are smarting after that SD debacle and Coughlin certainly got his team’s attention this week. There also is a little value here. Public bettors likely remember seeing the Giants getting whacked on national TV Sunday night. What square bettor would want to bet on a team that lost so badly the last time they watched them? And St. Louis is often a public favorite anyway based on their flashy offense. That might explain this line, which I think is 2 points too low. Buy it early if you can and lock in the “3” -- or buy a half on Free half point Friday and take it to 2.5.

New Orleans pick vs. Buffalo
Fade Losman, week 3. I figure after another miserable effort from Losman here or maybe next week and the Buffalo coach will dispense with the Malarkey about Losman and replace him with a real NFL quarterback -- namely backup Kelly Holcomb. Losman is the reincarnation of Cade “the Fade” McNown. He is not ready for the NFL and I’m going to continue to go against him and the Bills until the price gets too high. I’m maybe not quite as confident this week as the last two weeks because the Saints D isn’t nearly in the same class as the Bucs and Falcons D Losman faced the last two weeks. But I like this situation of the Saints finally playing a game at “home”...such as it is. At least they don’t have to get on an airplane to play a game. I expect another high intensity effort out of the Saints here after two desultory road efforts. And the Bills are certainly going to be adjusting to the loss of their defensive playmaker Takeo Spikes in last week’s game. That’s certain to help make things a bit easier for a Saints O that has been terribly inconsistent so far this season.

San Diego + 5 vs. New England
By my numbers, New England is a bit over-valued here. And one has to wonder how long the Patriots' habit of plugging the dike can continue. Another few injuries last week just makes the weekly adjustments all the more complicated. The Chargers appear to have gotten their running game in order and likely will outrush the Pats in this game. I love dogs that control the ball in the running game.

Tampa Bay -6.5 vs. Detroit
Bucs have the two elements of old fashioned football that still wins in the NFL...a good defense that can stop the run and a strong running game. The Bucs have added a Cadillac to their offense, which is having the desired effect of ball control and keeping their aging defense off the field. I don’t expect the Lions to be as pathetic as they were against Da Bears, but it's hard to see Harrington or the Lions run game getting well on the road against this defense. And while the Lions have good receivers, Harrington has to find them. He didn't do that against da Bears and I have a hard time seeing him being successful very often against the Bucs' cover two.

Green Bay +8 @ Carolina
Carolina is another team that has the defense and running game to take them to the playoffs this year. And the Panthers are a great play as a dog, but haven't been very kind to backers as chalk. The Panthers' Steve Smith might have a big night against the Packers' woeful secondary. But Brett Favre is the kind of guy who can make plays...and usually does when the bright lights are shining. This line seems a few points too high, based mainly on the Packers' performance thus far. But Carolina hasn't seemed to put all the pieces together either. Losing at Miami is the kind of thing that makes 8 points seem like an overlay.