Read this, form your own conclusion...

[Ned]

Thought I'd share the most detailed study ever done on weather, and its cause and effect on NFL betting markets. This is the type of stuff that shows where the value is on any game, more than anything else you will ever find. I'm a big player, in a small amount of games. I strike when the odds are tilted in a way that wins, not on a nightly basis, that's for gamblers. If you read this, then you'll understand what a documented "forever" trend is, that is backed up phisiologically, mathematically, and without any "noise" to enhance the results through biases.

http://www.business.txstate.edu/user...0Advantage.pdf


Needless to say where my action will be here this weekend!

[NoNewbieca]

Boston forecast for this week:

	Friday Jan 18	Saturday Jan 19	Sunday Jan 20	Monday Jan 21
High	3°C	2°C	-6°C	-5°C
Condition	Rain	Flurries	Cloudy periods	Variable cloudiness
P.O.P.	70%	30%	10%	10%
Low	-4°C	-6°C	-13°C	-8°C

Then San Diego:

Friday Jan 18	Saturday Jan 19	Sunday Jan 20	Monday Jan 21
High	17°C	17°C	15°C	12°C
Condition	Sunny	Sunny	Variable cloudiness	Cloudy with showers
P.O.P.	10%	10%	10%	30%
Low	6°C	7°C	9°C	8°C

Green Bay (NASTY temperatures!):

Friday Jan 18	Saturday Jan 19	Sunday Jan 20	Monday Jan 21
High	-9°C	-15°C	-14°C	-11°C
Condition	Flurries	Flurries	Flurries	Flurries
P.O.P.	50%	30%	30%	30%
Low	-15°C	-20°C	-17°C	-15°C

And finally New York, specifically New Jersey:

Friday Jan 18	Saturday Jan 19	Sunday Jan 20	Monday Jan 21
High	7°C	3°C	-3°C	-1°C
Condition	Cloudy periods	Flurries	Windy	Variable cloudiness
P.O.P.	20%	50%	10%	10%
Low	-1°C	-5°C	-8°C	-5°C

To me, I think the injuries are crucial for the Pats game and the weather has more of a factor in the Green Bay game. Just my 2 cents worth. Getting into analysis paralysis here...

[Bags]

Would love to the see whole equation worked out step by step on a game. Good stuff but not for your average 2+2 student?
Thanks for posting!

[ouch]

Thought provoking as usual. Glad to see you back. One of my favorite posters.

By the way, are you going to unveil your Bracketbuster Saturday theory again this year, or was it statiscally valid for just the one shot. Worked like a charm last year.

[ouch]

That would be "statistically". Sorry.

[Bobby Bacala]

Ned,
Very interesting study.
What are your statisical findings for this weeks games using these methods?
Please share.
Thanks

[Ned]

Bracketbuster is usually a good payday, but have to wait and see. I've done well, but the "noise" in here was more than what I had bargained for, so decided to sit on the sidelines for a bit. That study is one of many, that if you have a decent math apptitude, you can find the right spots that put you in the 55-58% range everytime you make a play. That's all I look for. Things that work for 20 years like clockwork, never having to be refigured. May be paying that gentleman a visit if he is up for it, because that's the kind of stuff that is gold! I saw a play in here by what appears to be a good capper, and one of the reasons was the teams ATS record on Thursday's! I no longer consider him a good capper (it may have been another day). The next time I get something, I consider top shelf, I'll share my thoughts here. I don't need, or desire any attention, so appreciation, or negative input, isn't necessary, just read it, and decide for yourself if you want to play along.