The Dr. K. NFL Football Forecasts

[Bobby Bacala]

The following predictions are based completely on the Kambour football ratings
The numbers in parentheses represent the point-spread. The last 2 columns represent the estimated probabilities. The first number is the probability that the team picked to win actually wins. The second is the probability that the team picked to beat the spread beats the spread.
Tennessee 13 Jacksonville (-6) 28 0.8315 0.7142
Denver 20 Buffalo (+4) 21 0.5287 0.6340
Philadelphia (-3) 28 Green Bay 20 0.6995 0.6289
Pittsburgh (-4) 23 Cleveland 14 0.7117 0.6136
Tampa Bay 14 Seattle (-6) 24 0.7540 0.6105
Carolina (E) 24 St Louis 20 0.6078 0.6078
Detroit (+2.5) 21 Oakland 20 0.5342 0.5997
Miami (+3) 17 Washington 16 0.5038 0.5867
Baltimore (+3) 21 Cincinnati 20 0.5019 0.5828
New Orleans 21 Indianapolis (-5.5) 30 0.7025 0.5751
New England (-6) 24 NY Jets 16 0.7059 0.5530
Kansas City (+1.5) 21 Houston 20 0.5149 0.5530
Arizona 21 San Francisco (-3) 26 0.6221 0.5451
Atlanta (+3) 21 Minnesota 23 0.5408 0.5385
NY Giants (+4) 21 Dallas 24 0.5840 0.5185
Chicago (+6) 21 San Diego 26 0.6344 0.5172

Note: The ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting

[Bobby Bacala]

I cut and pasted this off of Dr. Kambour's website.
I thought it might be helpful for reference purposes.

[dirty]

Good to see ya Bobby.. Was really worried when ya got shitcanned at the Train Store buddy..... good to see you are OK... was you able to save the Engineer's hat... That Sumbitch was sweet

[NoNewbieca]

So why is JAX the most likely to win the game outright on the week? Was the Leftwich loss no biggie here, and does TEN really suck that badly? Isn't Vince Young getting better every week?

[Bobby Bacala]

Originally Posted by dirty

Good to see ya Bobby.. Was really worried when ya got shitcanned at the Train Store buddy..... good to see you are OK... was you able to save the Engineer's hat... That Sumbitch was sweet

Was away for a couple of months.....I needed a little break, a little R&R never hurt anyone.
Bobby Jr. inherited the engineer's hat.....he always wanted it

[Bobby Bacala]

Originally Posted by NoNewbieca

So why is JAX the most likely to win the game outright on the week? Was the Leftwich loss no biggie here, and does TEN really suck that badly? Isn't Vince Young getting better every week?

I don't know how the statistical formula is set up but I do believe the jags are better with Garrard. His mobility will give them alot more options offensively. It is true that Vince Young is getting better each week but now the jags have last years tapes and a whole offseason to figure out how to defend against him. I think the Jags will win but I don't know if they will cover a TD.

[3pointdog]

hey bobby, did you follow this system last season?? and if so, how has it done in the past??

thanks.

just win.