What Am I Missing...? Help

[VegasTony]

Ravens at Bengals
I am really having a problem trying to justify how the linesmakers can make Cincinnati a 3 point favorite over the Ravens on Monday night. If you do a raw statistical line on this game, you would have the Ravens favored by 3. The Ravens 13-3 last year, the Bengals 8-8….Ravens defense has a 9.5 point differential to their advantage while Cincy has only a 1.2 point advantage on offense. Ravens held opponents to 12.6 points per while Cincy gave up 20.7. Cincy is 4-11 home in their last 15, Ravens are 12-4 versus Cincy in last 16. Ravens ranked 1 to 5 in almost every defensive category. I can’t see the home field advantage being that much of a difference in this one.
I was about to dump the house and car when I saw this line, but now I am a little scared of something I might be missing. I have fallen into these kind of traps before and I would love to have some feedback. Thanks

[bridgetown]

Originally Posted by VegasTony

Ravens at Bengals
I am really having a problem trying to justify how the linesmakers can make Cincinnati a 3 point favorite over the Ravens on Monday night. If you do a raw statistical line on this game, you would have the Ravens favored by 3. The Ravens 13-3 last year, the Bengals 8-8….Ravens defense has a 9.5 point differential to their advantage while Cincy has only a 1.2 point advantage on offense. Ravens held opponents to 12.6 points per while Cincy gave up 20.7. Cincy is 4-11 home in their last 15, Ravens are 12-4 versus Cincy in last 16. Ravens ranked 1 to 5 in almost every defensive category. I can’t see the home field advantage being that much of a difference in this one.
I was about to dump the house and car when I saw this line, but now I am a little scared of something I might be missing. I have fallen into these kind of traps before and I would love to have some feedback. Thanks

VT, I don't have the feedback your looking for but, I had the same reaction. A divisional game to open the season...it will be close. I'm taking the pts. Thanks for the numbers...

[not2good]

Home team is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings

[not2good]

Home	Line	O/U		Tot	Rus	Pas	Tot	Rus	Pas
11/30/06	BAL 7 - CIN 13	CIN -3	U 42		316	89	227	294	67	227
11/05/06	CIN 20 - BAL 26	BAL -3	O 41.5		374	129	245	275	92	183
11/27/05	BAL 29 - CIN 42	CIN -9.5	O 37		322	133	189	437	135	302
11/06/05	CIN 21 - BAL 9	CIN -3	U 36.5		240	124	116	329	98	231
12/05/04	CIN 27 - BAL 26	CIN 7	O 37		356	192	164	453	98	355

VT in the most recent matchups Cincy has dominated Baltimore from my looks
4 1 ATS and SU

[not2good]

Injuries

Baltimore Ravens | In-Depth
				ATS*	O/U*
Player		Status/Updated		Current	Current
Daniel Wilcox	TE	Prob Mon - Ankle - 09/04/07	notesHe has has been slowed by a sprained ankle in camp, expects to play on Monday night.	0-0	0-0
Jonathan Ogden	T	Ques Mon - Toe - 09/04/07	notesHe participated in individual drills Monday, but is still in question for Week 1. He hyperextended his left big toe last December.	0-0	0-0
Samari Rolle	CB	Ques Mon - Ankle - 09/04/07	notesRecovering from a sprained ankle. Hoping to be ready for Week 1.	0-0	0-0
Haloti Ngata	DT	Ques Mon - Knee - 09/04/07	notesTweaked his knee at practice and did not play Saturday versus Washington.	0-0	0-0
Trevor Pryce	DE	Ques Mon - Back - 09/04/07	notesLeft the August 25th game with back spasms and did not play in their final preseason game.	0-0	0-0
Ed Reed	S	Ques Mon - Thigh - 09/04/07	notesDid not play in the preseason finale due to a bruised thigh. He returned to practice Tuesday and should play on Monday night.	0-0	0-0
Mike Smith	LB	PUP - Shoulder - 08/23/07	notesHe is on the PUP with an injured shoulder. He may miss the first six games of the regular season.	0-0	0-0
Mark Clayton	WR	Early Sept - Ankle - 08/19/07	notesHe suffered a sprained ankle on August 19th against the Giants. He is expected to sit out the rest of the preseason with hopes of being ready for Week 1.	0-0	0-0
Dan Cody	LB	PUP - Knee - 07/30/07	notesHad his hyperextended knee scoped in July and it is a possibility that he may miss the entire season.	0-0	0-0
P.J. Daniels	RB	I-R - Hamstring - 08/28/07	notesThe Ravens placed him on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, ending his season.	0-0	0-0
Steve Edwards	G	I-R - Knee - 08/27/07	notesPlaced on injured reserve with a torn meniscus, ending his season.	0-0	0-0

Cincinnati Bengals | In-Depth
				ATS*	O/U*
Player		Status/Updated		Current	Current
Willie Anderson	T	day-to-day - Foot - 09/04/07	notesHe passed his physical and returned to practice last week and expects to play Monday.	0-0	0-0
Shayne Graham	K	Ques Mon - Hip - 09/04/07	notesSuffered a hip pointer during their last preseason game has not return to practice this week.	0-0	0-0
Dexter Jackson	S	Ques Mon - Concussion - 09/04/07	notesHe suffered a concussion during the team's preseason finale. He expects to play on Monday.	0-0	0-0
Antonio Chatman	WR	Out Indefinitely - Hamstring - 08/30/07	notesOut for undetermined amount of time with a hamstring injury. At this point, there are serious doubts about whether he'll make the team.	0-0	0-0
Ethan Kilmer	S	Out indefinitely - Knee - 08/29/07	notesUnderwent knee surgery on August 29th and will be sidelined for an indefinite period of time.	0-0	0-0
Rashad Jeanty	LB	Out indefinitely - Leg - 08/29/07	notesUnderwent surgery on his lower leg on August 29th and it is unknown how much time he'll miss.	0-0	0-0
Frostee Rucker	DE	Elig Sept 16 - Suspension - 08/29/07	notesHas been suspended for one game after violating the league's personal conduct policy. He plead guilty on charges of false imprisonment and vandalism. He's appealing the suspension.	0-0	0-0
Odell Thurman	LB	out for season - Suspension - 07/26/07	notesThe Bengals announced July 26th that he will not be reinstated from his one-year suspension and will miss the rest of the season.	0-0	0-0
David Pollack	LB	PUP - Neck - 07/13/07	notesHas suffered no paralysis as a result of the broken bone in his neck. He had surgery on January 3rd and is not expected back for the 2007-2008 season.	0-0	0-0
Chris Perry	RB	PUP - Ankle - 06/07/07	notesWill miss at least the first six games this season. Has been placed on the PUP list, which means he'll have to be inactive until at least Week 7.	0-0	0-0
Chris Henry	WR	Elig Nov 11 - Suspension - 05/22/07	notesReceived an eight-game suspension from the NFL April 10th. After he was sent to jail for two days for pleading guilty to allowing minors to drink alcohol in his hotel room.	0-0	0-0
Eric Henderson	LB	I-R - Wrist - 08/20/07	notesUnderwent surgery to repair his broken wrist on August 19th. He was placed on injured reserve ending his season.	0-0	0-0
Kenny Irons	RB	I-R - Knee - 08/18/07	notesWas carted off the field during their first preseason game on August 9th with a torn ACL. He is expected to make a full recovery, but was placed on the I-R ending his season.	0-0

[VegasTony]

Thank you all for the info......maybe I'll just play it safe and pass.....although I still think it's a bad line.....really appreciate all the help