NFL Championship Game Plays

[buffettgambler]

Chargers +14
I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind.

Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months.

There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering.

The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game.



Chargers @ Patriots Under 47
Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals.

The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.

[munson15]

Originally Posted by buffettgambler

Chargers +14
I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind.

Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months.

There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering.

The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game.



Chargers @ Patriots Under 47
Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals.

The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.

How about a parlay, since the 2 selections you've made are correlated? Not in the sense of a system since the numbers don't match the 33% model, but it would seem that the Chargers have an excellent chance to cover if the total stays under 47. Thanks and GL, BG.

[3pointdog]

im dissapointed BG... I thought you would finally get on the pat bus this week (sometimes you need to jump on the wagon)...I think the publis is all over the dog here based on last weeks preformance (indoors, 72 degrees / no wind) I bought the 1/2 to -13 1/2 and think the pats pour it on... I really think the weather will have an effect on the chargers, i was looking at a 34-10 final... if you were on the pats i would have pressed my play from 3k to 5k..

[Fishing too]

Notes from the winner of the Hilton contest:
NE
38/14 like last meeting
all SD loses didn't cover
cold weather
NE passing will be awesome
unhealthy Rivers
win by 20-23 points
total is where it should be
Take teaser -7 points for the over

GB
Take in Super Bowl at + 14 points


on a roll
NYG road weary
nyg offense sputtering 10 degrees + wind chill(havoc passing game)
nyg good Cinderella team about to be a pumpkin
win by 10-14 points
under game
16/0/1 su winner ats(No point winners here)

Whatever happens enjoy and GL

[NoNewbieca]

Thanks BG and good luck.

[Fishing too]

B.G. I have read every post of yours this year and i want to thank you for all your work product. Always check you out before i leap and i appreciate it. Happy New Year and GL

(Didn't mean to interupt your thread here by my earlier post..i just don't post much)

[NoNewbieca]

For today it will be: SD +14 and SD UNDER parlay
Teaser NE -6.5, GB -1 and NE UNDER 53
NE UNDER 47.5

[NoNewbieca]

Adding NYG ML (+280)

[buffettgambler]

Thanks guys.

Munson,
If you deem both bets EV, a parlay's EV will be higher. The correlation (or lackthereof) is questionable, but can't argue with anyone adding a small parlay in addition to the straight up bets. Best of luck on your Giants future bet.

3PD,
Sorry we are not on the same side. I just feel that everything that is good with the Patriots is priced into their line, and then some. With my valuation process, long term overvalued teams don't all of a sudden become undervalued. The day I lay off a Patriots game will come before the day I bet on them.

Fishingtoo and NB,
Best of luck.

[munson15]

Originally Posted by buffettgambler

Thanks guys.

Munson,
If you deem both bets EV, a parlay's EV will be higher. The correlation (or lackthereof) is questionable, but can't argue with anyone adding a small parlay in addition to the straight up bets. Best of luck on your Giants future bet.

Thanks, BG, I wish you a profitable day.

[stuckinvegas]

Why should he jump on the bandwagon when the Pats haven't been covering the inflated spread the second half of the season! Even with the inflated spread, the public is still on the Pats by 68%.

[3pointdog]

when will i learn BG... should have listened... one more game to get it... i will follow .. thanks for the advice...i really respect your opinons, i was trying to outsmart myself..

[IceMan xMVPx]

Congrats BG!!! Should be a Great Super Bowl.

[NoNewbieca]

Great picking here BG. Hope you got well paid for your insight. I had a very good day. Nice to add to bankroll. Not sure how heavy I will go on the Superbowl as I believe that the Pats will run all over the G-men. Brady won't have another 3 PIC game. Warm weather and two weeks to prepare means that the dream season should reach it's final conclusion.

[lefty402]

NICE CALL THERE BUFFET !!!!!

[munson15]

Nice day, BG!

[THE SHRINK]

And a late kudos!

[Reload]

Nice job again, buffettgambler!

[NoNewbieca]

Bump! BG - what are YOUR thoughts on the big game? If you continue in your pattern, I would expect to see picking the G-Men with the points for the inflated line for Pats. That way the Pats win the Superbowl, but you cover with the points. How about it? Wouldn't bet the big game without you (and quite frankly I am leaning towards staying away from it)

[buffettgambler]

Originally Posted by NoNewbieca

Bump! BG - what are YOUR thoughts on the big game? If you continue in your pattern, I would expect to see picking the G-Men with the points for the inflated line for Pats. That way the Pats win the Superbowl, but you cover with the points. How about it? Wouldn't bet the big game without you (and quite frankly I am leaning towards staying away from it)

NoNewbieca,
I am not betting the game, and have spent the last two weeks starting to handicap the 2008 MLB season. As you know, I have been claiming that the Pats are an overvalued team all year. However, I have been bearish on the NFC for years, and think the Giants are playing a bit over their heads right now. Fundamentally speaking, the Pats are a bit overvalued. Adding the favorable intangibles, and I think they are fairly priced at the current market price. I have never been a big fan of betting on the Super Bowl, as I feel the outcomes deviate from fundamental form. Therefore, I require a high margin of safety to place a bet. There appears to be some value on the Under, but I will gladly pass. Best of luck with your decision.