NFL SEASON TOTALS WORKSHOP

[WINBET]

Let me just start by putting across the situation of betting NFL Season Totals. Vegas Books get plenty of visitors to their Casinos and they know that the normal bettor hasn’t a clue when it comes to estimating Season totals, a nice mix of Fans from across the States betting their own team and a heavy vig forces them to offer odds as soon as possible. They also know that the majority of sharper Punters are otherwise engaged or are not prepared to have their cash tied up for 6 Months, although more and more players are seeing the value. Once the Vegas boys have done their homework all the other leechy Books in the World jump on the supposed bandwagon to the point of almost not looking at their odds again such is the degree of confidence.

To be fair to the Books, when you see how Punters assess the Totals its not surprising they lick their chops. The first method is a straight “will the Team improve or deteriorate from last year” the big problem with this thinking obviously is it doesn’t take into account not only last years strength of schedule but also this years. The second method is one of calculating each individual game on a spread basis to come up with the team Totals, actually this is how the oddsmakers arrive at their base numbers which is then tweaked to personal preferences. The Achilles heel with this method is how easy the estimated Totals can distort quickly when the perceived spreads become completely useless EG Miami -3 becomes a pick in week 4.

So, to take advantage of this reasonable but flawed system one has to come up with a strategy that averages out a Teams projection before going on to deciding the value of ½ wins and cutting into the vig, remember, the exchanges will be full of Takers thinking this is an easy money market.

More later.

[ballwonder]

Good stuff win. I thought often more than not that most do not want to put a wager in that will take almost to determine a win or a loss. Most seem they want the instant gratification of the ticket. Will be looking foward to more as added.

[diogee]

Excellent stuff winbet...looking forward to the additions.

[Superskrub]

Good stuff winbet

I was actually looking for season total lines yesterday but did not find any yet. I have been preparing a bit myself, making schedules, cirkeling in key games and so on. Can't wait for the football season to start :-)

[winkyduck]

BEST way to bet season totals

UNDER

ALWAYS the best way to go - there is one team in particular i have my eyes set on - just waiting for the books to put a total at least 2 games too high on and when they do i am gonna UNLOAD on UNDER and cash it by Week 15 (if not earlier)

[BigdaddyQH]

The one huge play I saw at many books is St. Louis Under 5.5 at +130. Is this a money give away? No matter what system or combination of systems I use, there is simply no way I can see St. Louis winning 6 games. Most systems come with 3-4, and a few have 5.I have grabbed this wager. St. Louis winning less than 6 games and getting 13/10 on your money is a gift, IMO.

[davidfincher]

Hi Wonderful stuff winbet
Thank you
Keep posting

[WINBET]

2008 S	2008 A	2009 E	2009 S	% over Book	Hist over	bounce
AFC EAST					Push not inc	push inc
New England	12.5	11	9.58	11.5	48%	23%	70%
Miami	5.5	11	9.58	7	20%	88%	30%
NY Jets	7	9	7.88	7	16%	68%	38%
Buffalo	8	7	5.42	8	62%	46%	49%
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh	9	12	13.42	10.5	41%	39%	50%
Baltimore	6	11	12.28	8.5	40%	53%	56%
Cincinnati	7.5	4	4.93	6.5	63%	55%	61%
Cleveland	8	4	4.93	7	62%	55%	69%
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee	8	13	12.72	9	20%	61%	28%
Indianapolis	11	12	11.74	10	16%	60%	43%
Houston	7.5	8	8	8.5	48%	42%	49%
Jacksonville	10	5	4.89	8	62%	45%	69%
AFC WEST
San Diego	10.5	8	8.06	9.5	56%	25%	61%
Denver	7.5	8	8.06	7	55%	76%	51%
LA Raiders	6.5	5	5.04	6	62%	64%	51%
Kansas	6	2	2.02	6	62%	33%	53%
NFC EAST
NY Giants	9	12	11.64	10	16%	60%	50%
Dallas	10.5	9	8.73	9	42%	46%	67%
Philadelphia	8.5	9	8.73	9.5	48%	40%	51%
Washington	7.5	8	7.82	8.5	48%	42%	43%
NFC SOUTH
Carolina	7.5	12	11.11	8.5	20%	65%	38%
Atlanta	4.5	11	10.18	8.5	40%	53%	30%
Tampa Bay	8	9	8.33	6.5	40%	68%	49%
New Orleans	8.5	8	7.42	9	62%	42%	51%
NFC NORTH
Minnesota	8.5	10	10.69	9	55%	45%	50%
Chicago	8	9	9.62	8.5	40%	46%	50%
Green bay	8	6	6.42	8.5	63%	52%	50%
Detroit	6.5	0	0	4.5	62%	100%	50%
NFC WEST
Arizona	8	9	9.43	8.5	40%	46%	51%
SF 49ers	6.5	7	7.34	7	42%	48%	50%
Seattle	8.5	4	4.21	7.5	62%	41%	69%
St Louis	6.5	2	2.11	5.5	62%	33%	43%

[WINBET]

2008 S= Books numbers for 2008

2008 A= Actual Team totals for 2008

2009 E= Game wins based on both last years strength of schedule and this years.

2009 S= This years books numbers

% over Book= the percentage of overs when comparing last years total to this years Book numbers

Hist Over= the over percentage of beating last years total

bounce= The over percentage of comparing 2007 & 2008 totals EG New England 2007 =16 wins 2008=11 wins the over 11 this year is 70%

I have more figures to add but I think we'll get these nailed down first.

PS: The Hist over figures include pushes so one needs to be wary of whole figures.

Basically what I'm trying to get at is how many games a team would win this year given last years performance. I use Statfox divisional power ratings which I have found very reliable to come to an average win percentage against that division, its then a matter of adding up the likely wins in each teams schedule EG 4 games Vs AFC West, 4 Games Vs NFC East, 1 Game South, 1 Game NFC South + 3 (out of 6) for divisional games. I then slightly adjust each division on expectation and use the same formula to get this years division average, its then just a matter of allotting the same +/- percentage from last year, which I think gives you a much better view of where a team is.

The Jets are a prime example in that the reasonable view is that they done well last year improving from 7 wins to 9 and while a drop off can be expected, is the books number of 7 too low. After working out the divisional ratings, The Jets actual 9 wins were slightly under the 9.04 average for the AFC East. The AFC Easts schedule strength this year comes out at 7.88 and that is what last years Jet team would be expected to win this year. The Patriots were 21.6% over average last year so adding that onto this years 7.88 comes out at 9.58, I think using these figures as opposed to the real final totals give a better opinion.

Hope that hasnt come across too complicated. Later I will work out each teams individual SOS within their division for last year and this year to fine tune their achievement, I also got some interesting trends I found on the net.

The 3 columns on the right are stats from that great site
http://www.twominutewarning.com/nflt...onwins2008.htm

I've put them in order for easy reference but you can use the info as you like, your feed back will be welcome.

Teams that won 10+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG, NE, Mia, Bal, Atl, Min)

1. Every year, there are at least 2 teams who win 10+ games and win 5 or less the next year.
2. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 10+ games and then wins 4 or less the next year. Are the Dolphins primed for a fall back to the cellar after a surprising 2008 season? Which team is due for some bad injury luck, similar to what happened to Seattle and Jacksonville last season?

Teams that won 12+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 12+ games and then wins 8 or less the next year. The most likely candidates are Tennessee and Carolina.

Teams that won 5 or less games last year (Det, Stl, KC, Cin, Sea, Cle, Jac, Oak)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 5 or less games and then wins 10 games the next year. Will it be a healthy Seattle team? A healthy Cincinnati team? A healthy Jacksonville team? Or will it be a young, up-and-coming Kansas City team?

Teams that increased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (Ten, Min, NYG, Pit, Oak, Ari)

1. Tennessee (2005-present) is the only team to increase its win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 8 other teams to increase their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. Tennessee will not win 14 games, the Giants will not win 13 games, Pittsburgh will not win 13 games, and Minnesota will not win 11 games. The trends also say that Arizona will not win 10 games and Oakland will not win 6 games.

Teams that decreased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (SD, Cin, KC, Stl)

1. Only Cincinnati (2005-present), Kansas City (2005-present) and Atlanta (2004-2007) have decreased their win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 13 other teams to decrease their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. This trend will most likely hold in 2009 as San Diego will win at least 8 games, Cincinnati at least 4, Kansas City at least 2, and St. Louis at least 2.

Teams that increased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Mia – 10, Atl – 7, Bal – 6, Car – 5, NYJ – 5, Ten – 3)

1. Of the 46 teams that have won 3 or more games from their prior year total, only 6 of them (13%) increased their win total again the following year.
2. Of the 19 teams that won 5 or more games from their prior year total, only 1 went on to increase their win total in the following year (Chicago went from 5 to 11 to 13 from 2004-2006).
3. Of those same 19 teams, 15 of them actually saw their win total go down by at least 3 games in the following year.
4. Of the 10 that won 6 or more games from their prior year total, 8 of them saw their win total go down by at least 3 games the following year. 5 of the 10 saw their win total go down by at least 4 games.

Miami will most likely see its win total decrease by at least 3 games (from 10 to 7). Atlanta, Carolina, Baltimore, Tennessee and the Jets will also most likely return to the 8-win range.
Teams that decreased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Det – 7, GB – 7, Sea – 6, Jac – 6, Cle – 6, NE – 5, Dal – 4, SD – 3, Cin – 3)

1. Of the 47 teams that decreased their win total by at least 3 games from the prior season, 33 (70%) bounced back and increased their win total the following season.
2. Of the 12 teams that decreased their win total by at least 6 games from the prior season, 7 (58%) increased their win total by at least 4 games the following season.

This would imply that Green Bay is more likely than not to approach 10 wins, Jacksonville to win at least 9, Seattle to win at least 8, Cleveland to win at least 8, and Detroit to win at least 4. It also implies that New England has a 70% chance to win at least 12, Dallas (70%) to win at least 10, San Diego at least 9 (70%), and Cincinnati at least 5 (70%).
Other statistics to keep in mind

1. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win at least 12 games
2. On average, there are 7 teams each year to win at least 11 games
3. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win at least 10 games
4. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win 4 or less games
5. On average, there are 8 teams each year to win 5 or less games
6. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win 6 or less games
7. On average, there are 11 teams each year to win between 7 and 9 games

The thing to keep in mind here is that if you think a team is a safe bet to be one of the top 10 teams in the league, they will most likely win at least 10 games (see San Diego, below). Likewise, if you think a team is a safe bet to be in the bottom third, they will most likely win at most 6 games (see Miami, below).
Consider the following table, which summarizes the number of occurrences of a win total and the average win total the following year. This just supports the fact that there are surprises every year – for example, teams that won 6 games have a better historical performance in the subsequent season than teams that won 13 games.

Number of wins	Occurrences	Average wins the next year
16	1	11.0
15	1	11.0
14	4	11.8
13	9	7.8
12	12	10.6
11	12	7.8
10	24	7.8
9	22	8.5
8	22	8.3
7	21	7.0
6	17	8.2
5	19	7.2
4	19	7.2
3	4	6.0
2	4	5.5
1	1	11.0

[diogee]

Wow...a lot of great info. Much appreciated Winbet.

[ebemiss]

Here's something I put together after the draft based on points scored and points allowed from previous seasons. Bill James noted mathematician was smart enough to create a formula that used points scored and points allowed and compared that to your actual won/loss record to validate your performance. If teams were getting outscored by their opponent’s and still winning, the projected win total would be less and most likely that would translate into trouble the next season.

Formula used for expected record based on points scored.

PF^2.37/PF^2.37 + PA^2.37

I took a look at 2007 NFL numbers and what they “suggested” might happen in 2008. For 32 teams, if the projected win total was above or below the actual won/loss record the teams played accordingly on 19 out 0f 30 occasions, with two teams finishing with the exact same record as 2007 (Buffalo, Tampa Bay). You’ll see Baltimore and Atlanta’s numbers were actually equal, projected vs actual, so I scored they’re success last year as 2 of the 19 positive results. I figured if the numbers predict at least the same success and the team improves it’s actual win total that was a plus.


I’ll list the 2007 team chart, then below that last years numbers. Hopefully I can identify the 15-20 teams that are going to perform as the projected numbers/points scored shows, either better or worse.


You’ll see for example in the chart below in 2007 New England was undefeated, the formula actual showed the Patriots scored points based on 13.8 wins instead of 16. This is telling us they overachieved and would project in 2008 at about 14 wins if they scored the same amount of points.


Here’s the chart for 2007, if the teams have a 1 in the correct column that meant James’s formula predicted their projected wins was closer to their actual win total in 2008.

actual wins	projected wins				Correct	Wrong	Push
16	13.8		New England Patriots		1
7	4.9		Buffalo Bills				1
4	5.4		New York Jets		1
1	3.8		Miami Dolphins		1
10	11.4		Pittsburgh Steelers		1
10	8.5		Cleveland Browns		1
7	7.9		Cincinnati Bengals			1
5	5		Baltimore Ravens		1
13	12.5		Indianapolis Colts		1
11	10.7		Jacksonville Jaguars		1
10	8.1		Tennessee Titans			1
8	7.9		Houston Texans			1
11	11.3		San Diego Chargers			1
7	5.7		Denver Broncos			1
4	4.5		Kansas City Chiefs			1
4	4.9		Oakland Raiders		1
13	11		Dallas Cowboys		1
10	8.6		New York Giants			1
9	8.7		Washington Redskins		1
8	9.1		Philadelphia Eagles		1
13	11.5		Green Bay Packers		1
8	9.5		Minnesota Vikings		1
7	5.7		Detroit Lions		1
7	7.6		Chicago Bears		1
9	10		Tampa Bay Buccaneers				1
7	5.6		Carolina Panthers			1
7	7.8		New Orleans Saints		1
4	4		Atlanta Falcons		1
10	10.7		Seattle Seahawks			1
8	8.1		Arizona Cardinals		1
5	3.7		San Francisco 49ers			1
3	3.7		St. Louis Rams			1
					19	11

Here are last seasons numbers going forward for 2009. I’ll try to explain each team below.

actual wins	projected wins			2008 SOS	2009 SOS
9	8		Arizona Cardinals	-8	-30
11	9.7		Atlanta Falcons	-17	45
11	11.9		Baltimore Ravens	20	-32
7	7.8		Buffalo Bills	-26	36
12	10.1		Carolina Panthers	0	47
9	8.7		Chicago Bears	-16	-44
4	3		Cincinnati Bengals	26	-18
4	4.4		Cleveland Browns	35	-26
9	7.9		Dallas Cowboys	7	8
8	6.2		Denver Broncos	-25	-10
0	2.8		Detroit Lions	8	-17
6	8.9		Green Bay Packers	-8	-37
8	7.3		Houston Texans	7	3
12	10.2		Indianapolis Colts	8	6
5	6.2		Jacksonville Jaguars	12	8
2	4.4		Kansas City Chiefs	3	-8
11	8.8		Miami Dolphins	-11	48
10	9.2		Minnesota Vikings	3	-41
11	10.6		New England Patriots	-2	46
8	9.5		New Orleans Saints	-7	29
12	11.3		New York Giants	15	14
9	9.2		New York Jets	-14	35
5	4.6		Oakland Raiders	2	-10
9	10.6		Philadelphia Eagles	13	18
12	11.8		Pittsburgh Steelers	21	-34
8	10.2		San Diego Chargers	7	-8
7	6.9		San Francisco 49ers	-26	-29
4	5.4		Seattle Seahawks	-6	-22
2	2.6		St. Louis Rams	7	-18
9	9		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-13	41
13	12.1		Tennessee Titans	-10	4
8	7		Washington Redskins	-5	-4

-Arizona shows less wins in 2009 than 2008. Their schedule is easier but I’ll agree that the Cardinals win 9 or less games.


-Atlanta’s numbers show a decline as well. With a much tougher schedule, I’ll agree that the Falcon’s win less than 11 games this year.


-Baltimore shows an IMPROVEMENT on last year’s 11 wins. Their schedule is easier, so I’ll agree Baltimore wins 12 or more games and wins the AFC North.


-Buffalo projects almost a win better than last year. I think their schedule is tougher but I’ll agree that the offseason help has made them better.


-Carolina overachieved last year by the numbers. Their schedule is brutal, and they are too one dimensional on offense. They won’t win the division and may struggle to make the playoffs.


-Chicago projects just below last year’s numbers with 8.7 wins. Their schedule appears easier on paper and will be better on offense. I tend to agree that they won’t win more than 9 games as every team in their division is improved.


-Cincinnati shows less wins based on last years numbers. This is one set of numbers I’ll throw out the window because they’ll have QB Carson Palmer back this year. I like what they did in the draft and they will be right around .500 all year. Schedule is much easier as well.


-Cleveland projects better than their actual numbers. I like the coach, if one of the QB’s take control (Quinn, Anderson), they as well will be a .500 team. Their schedule is easier so that should help.


-Dallas showed worse numbers on paper than actual wins last year. They were not good, in fact average. They supposedly got better by subtracting controversial players, but I’ll have to see it to believe it. I’ll agree with the projected numbers and Dallas only gets 9 wins or less.


-Denver had a .500 record last year but was OUTSCORED on the season, hence the projected win total of 6.2. This team was terrible on defense and need to improve drastically to get back to 8 wins.


-Detroit projected almost 3 wins based on points scored. They won’t go winless this year, so this is one prediction I’ll get right.


-Green Bay showed almost 3 more wins based on points scored last year. They’ve made every effort to improve their defense, and with an easier schedule this team will win the NFC North in 2009.


-Houston projects slightly less than last year’s 8 win season. Every year I think they will become a contender, but they never do. Why would I think any other way? They have the talent to make the playoffs, a fast start would help.


-Indianapolis shows almost 2 less wins based on the numbers. I agree, the division is tough and 12 wins which have become the norm, may be tough this year.


-Jacksonville was decimated by injuries on the offensive line last year. That fact and a lack of offensive playmakers on the outside contributed to a bad season. However the numbers show improvement on last year’s win total, I agree. They had a great offseason and should be better.


-Kansas City’s numbers suggest 2 more wins than they had last year. They are young but competitive. They had a stretch last year when they seemed to blow a lead in the 4th quarter every week. They will improve on last year’s 2 wins, no doubt.


-Miami has the toughest schedule on paper for 2009, and projected over 2 wins less than last year. They had an easy schedule and are not an 11 win team. I can’t see them sneaking up on anyone this year.


-Minnesota projects slightly less than 10 wins from last year. I tend to agree, as they are a tough team to watch with their QB issues. The only thing that keeps me from totally agreeing on their decline, is an easy schedule, 9-10 wins are possible.


-New England projects slightly less than 11 wins. Tom Brady returns as do his weapons. The problem is the defense needs to improve. The schedule is alot tougher and 12 wins would be a great season, I’m not sure they are that good anymore.


-New Orleans projects a better season that last year. Like New England their offense is amazing, but the defense is not good. They will improve as I think Atlanta and Carolina take a step back in the division. I agree they will win more than 8 games and win the NFC South.


-New York Giants show around 11 wins based on last year’s points scored. How are they going to do that when they lost their best receiver, and other “feature” running back? They won’t win 12 games again this year.


-New York Jets show slightly higher than 9 wins. I don’t have a clue, to be honest. New coach, New QB, New secondary and NO New WR’s. I like their defense, but I think their offense could be a grease fire, we’ll see. If I had to make a prediction I have to think 9 wins is going to be tough with a difficult schedule and new personnel.


-Oakland projects less than 5 wins based on last year’s numbers. I actually like the way they finished last season, and QB JaMarcus Rusell’s improvement. However they are the Raiders. They botched the Draft and need help on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I thought if they had a good draft I’d actually go out on a limb and predict 7-9 wins, but I can’t right now.


-Philadelphia underachieved for most of the regular season in 2008. They finished strong and proved they should have had almost 2 wins more based on points scored. They picked up some weapons in the draft on offense, and I have to believe the NFC East is their division to lose. I’ll agree they win 11 or more games.


-Pittsburgh projects slightly less than 12 wins based on last year’s numbers. Their division will be tougher this year so I’ll agree that they’ll win 11 or less games this year.


-San Diego was difficult to predict last year. They started out horrible, but finished with 4 straight wins to qualify for the playoffs. They underachieved as Norv Turner’s teams often do. They should be better with LB Shawne Merriman returning. If they don’t win the AFC West with 11-12 wins somebody should be fired.


-San Francisco projects about 7 wins. I’d like to think their late season improvement will lead to success this year. If they can find decent QB play they’ll have a shot at a .500 record.


-Seattle is another team like Cincinnati that you can throw these numbers out the window. They lost their starting QB for most of the season so the numbers are skewed. The problem is the defense. They have addressed it in the offseason, but they allowed almost 400 yds a game. They’ll exceed last year’s win total, and contend for the division with Arizona and SF.


-St. Louis is projected slightly better than 2 wins. I have to agree that they’ll exceed that but not by much.


-Tampa Bay is projected to win 9 games based on last year’s numbers. Tall order with a New coach, New defensive coordinator, and a tough schedule. 9 wins is the max for this team, probably 7-8 is more likely.


-Tennessee shows they should have had 12 wins instead of 13 last year. They lost their All-World DT Albert Haynesworth and their defensive coordinator as well. They will be good, just not 12 wins good.


-Washington started out strong last year, but finished the season like they had a new coach and a young QB. They are improved defensively, and help on offense can make them a wild card contender.


Like I said earlier, these numbers have helped project forward from the previous season’s stats. Your thoughts are welcome.

[TonyMar]

alot of good numbers to digest here...

[MIKEH75]

texans will be better this year.

[MIKEH75]

Originally Posted by TonyMar

alot of good numbers to digest here...

i agree.

[3pointdog]

thanks, great info.. but do you ever sleep??

[HinesWard86]

Nice post ebemiss.

Seattle's defense struggled because of the amount of time they were on the field due to the offensive problems. If you look back, the Seattle defense was on the field more than any other team in the NFL, even more than Detroit. This is why their numbers ballooned last year. This season with a better offense, we will see a better Seattle defense as well.

[dddowntown]

Vikings under 9.. Just got it at -120, think tarvarius will get to 10 wins? I dont.

[Dawoofdaddy]

Another good read from a geezer.