[royalfan]

Originally Posted by OSUCOWBOYS

DOCUMENTED EOG RECORDS:

Royalfan = 1-0 (a -500 fav)

ATS = 39-8

I will post the two records until either you catch him or he regresses back to you. Until then how can you possibly run your mouth?

BTW, I am out for the night as my Momma's house is calling.

You don't even have units? That is all that matters in baseball. Don't worry I will keep everyone abreast of how things go. He is only 6-1 since you piped up this thread also by the way. I put my money where my mouth is also by the way. I simply try to help the fucking forum and assholes like you have to make it personal for some reason.

[THE SHRINK]

How have you helped this forum?

I would love to hear your reasoning?

Sleeping does not count either..

[royalfan]

Originally Posted by THE SHRINK

How have you helped this forum?

I would love to hear your reasoning?

Sleeping does not count either..

Giving people my opinion of this trend thing is one example. For the record do you think it is smart to blindy play thrends based on how a team did following givinging up 8 runs on a Friday night in may?

[royalfan]

Using betjamaica closers since they have a dimeline and a popular book.

8-8 (138) on 100 dollar plays. Total margin of loss on all games was a net of 11 runs to the bad. About what I would assume would be the case over the long haul with many plays. Basically with these you will lose the juice over time as there is no relevance to if a team gave up exactly 8 runs the night before(and not 7 or 9) and stuff like that IMO. Good luck to those that play though.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Saturday = 8-7-1 (-.20)

Sunday = 4-2 (+1.35)

I have taken the 90+ minutes necessary to review the individual plays and get the correct +/- unit total YTD. Here it is after 7 days in the books:

YTD = 50-18 (+23.23)

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by royalfan

Using betjamaica closers since they have a dimeline and a popular book.

8-8 (138) on 100 dollar plays. Total margin of loss on all games was a net of 11 runs to the bad. About what I would assume would be the case over the long haul with many plays. Basically with these you will lose the juice over time as there is no relevance to if a team gave up exactly 8 runs the night before(and not 7 or 9) and stuff like that IMO. Good luck to those that play though.

Wrong. The line closed (and I played it at) 8ov -20. Makes it a push.

8-7 (-.20) is correct.

Straight

906

Push

MIL( B Sheets / J Pineiro ) Listed

ov8

-120

$1,200.00

$1,000.00

$0.00

Internet

View Score

[Tomorrow's Newspaper]

Interesting stuff OSU. A win percentage that high has to be looked at a couple of times at least. I will be watching from here on. Thanks

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by Tomorrow's Newspaper

Interesting stuff OSU. A win percentage that high has to be looked at a couple of times at least. I will be watching from here on. Thanks

Good to see you over here TN. I always loved your stuff at the SHITX before I got banned there. You will be a HUGE asset to EOG if you decide to hang around.

[wholovesya]

The real question here is why Royalfan has made this thread about him? Don't be a complete dick your whole life. Let's give credit to the guy who is on a tear regardless of how he got there.

nice job ATSdatabase.

-WLY-

[newb411]

Originally Posted by wholovesya

The real question here is why Royalfan has made this thread about him? Don't be a complete dick your whole life. Let's give credit to the guy who is on a tear regardless of how he got there.

nice job ATSdatabase.

-WLY-

the reason royal makes his point is because it IS important to most people whether or not these plays are +ev going forward. In one of ron's threads from a week or so ago, i posted (in jest), what a teams record was if it wore blue uniforms against a team with red uniforms, off a loss, etc etc..

these trends are for the most part meaningless... not only because they make no sense logically, but also because the sample sizes next to these trends are so tiny..

In addition, if you had an extensive database, lets say the one that statfox uses for their foxsheet systems, it is often easy to find one very strong trend which supports team A against team B, and one equally strong trend which backs team B against team A..

I'd say most all of these trends that poster "atsdatabase" posts across the street are extensive "datamining" and over the long term these trends are for the most part meaningless..

so i'd say royalfan is doing a lot of people in here a service

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by newb411

the reason royal makes his point is because it IS important to most people whether or not these plays are +ev going forward. In one of ron's threads from a week or so ago, i posted (in jest), what a teams record was if it wore blue uniforms against a team with red uniforms, off a loss, etc etc..

these trends are for the most part meaningless... not only because they make no sense logically, but also because the sample sizes next to these trends are so tiny..

In addition, if you had an extensive database, lets say the one that statfox uses for their foxsheet systems, it is often easy to find one very strong trend which supports team A against team B, and one equally strong trend which backs team B against team A..

I'd say most all of these trends that poster "atsdatabase" posts across the street are extensive "datamining" and over the long term these trends are for the most part meaningless..

so i'd say royalfan is doing a lot of people in here a service

That is Royalfan for you, ever the philathropist.

Welcome to EOG. Glad to have you here. I look forward to seeing more of your posts in the future.




DISCLAIMER:
(8 posts in 13 months and comes in to defend Roylafan from across the street)

[Hoganknows]

Thanks OSU for the heads up on a hot capper

[wholovesya]

Originally Posted by newb411

the reason royal makes his point is because it IS important to most people whether or not these plays are +ev going forward. In one of ron's threads from a week or so ago, i posted (in jest), what a teams record was if it wore blue uniforms against a team with red uniforms, off a loss, etc etc..

these trends are for the most part meaningless... not only because they make no sense logically, but also because the sample sizes next to these trends are so tiny..

In addition, if you had an extensive database, lets say the one that statfox uses for their foxsheet systems, it is often easy to find one very strong trend which supports team A against team B, and one equally strong trend which backs team B against team A..

I'd say most all of these trends that poster "atsdatabase" posts across the street are extensive "datamining" and over the long term these trends are for the most part meaningless..

so i'd say royalfan is doing a lot of people in here a service

Hey newbie, are you a longtime lurker like me or are you just part of the Royalfan knob polishing club? You membership is about 4 strong.

-WLY-

[THE SHRINK]

May I be an honorary member, too?

[Finance]

Again I wonder why anyone posts any plays at this place. As far as I can tell, ATS hasn't even posted plays, just putting some information out there. OSU has turned it into a system, which is a nice way to track and see if the information has any use, but it's just information that's out there to use as you see fit (or not).

I like the info and have used it profitably, but only to add additional criteria to games that I already liked or had some leans towards. I've only made a few plays that I wouldn't have anyway, and only when the numbers were so compelling (20-4), (15-1) that I figured what the hell?

Saturday was a good example to show that maybe OSU could tweak the criteria a bit - 16 plays in one day is a recipe for disaster - I don't care how good anyone is. Maybe raise it to 70%, 75%, etc. and we would arrive at fewer plays. I'm not suggesting that we go back and recalculate (I don't have the time or inclination and I wouldn't ask anyone else to do it either)
but everyone needs to use this stuff in a way that is useful to them.

I like the info and hope that ATS continues to post it...thanks for the efforts, Sir!!

[raycabino]

Originally Posted by wholovesya

Hey newbie, are you a longtime lurker like me or are you just part of the Royalfan knob polishing club? You membership is about 4 strong.

-WLY-

WLY, I'm sure you also realize that Royalfan is right on in this thread though he always goes about it the wrong way. I don't think it is nearly as much knob slobbing as it is trying to provide good sports betting logic for the forum. Just my 2 cents.

[raycabino]

Originally Posted by Finance

Again I wonder why anyone posts any plays at this place. As far as I can tell, ATS hasn't even posted plays, just putting some information out there. OSU has turned it into a system, which is a nice way to track and see if the information has any use, but it's just information that's out there to use as you see fit (or not).

I like the info and have used it profitably, but only to add additional criteria to games that I already liked or had some leans towards. I've only made a few plays that I wouldn't have anyway, and only when the numbers were so compelling (20-4), (15-1) that I figured what the hell?

Saturday was a good example to show that maybe OSU could tweak the criteria a bit - 16 plays in one day is a recipe for disaster - I don't care how good anyone is. Maybe raise it to 70%, 75%, etc. and we would arrive at fewer plays. I'm not suggesting that we go back and recalculate (I don't have the time or inclination and I wouldn't ask anyone else to do it either)
but everyone needs to use this stuff in a way that is useful to them.

I like the info and hope that ATS continues to post it...thanks for the efforts, Sir!!

Finance, no doubt all info is good info and all that provide any should be appreciated. I think RF was trying to provide info as well as far as his early post in this thread is concerned but it is to bad he usually finds a way to come across as a total jerk in the process.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by raycabino

WLY, I'm sure you also realize that Royalfan is right on in this thread though he always goes about it the wrong way. I don't think it is nearly as much knob slobbing as it is trying to provide good sports betting logic for the forum. Just my 2 cents.

Rayray,

Why is Royalfan right? Why is your "stuff" better than ATS's?

I have never gone to the window to cash a ticket and been asked how my team won. Winners are winners.

If it aint broke why try to fix it? (or knock it)

[raycabino]

OSU, it is great to find trends but in order for them to have success going forward there has to be some logic behind why the trend is having success. Another words, if the salamanders are 11-1 on Wednesdays vs teams that wear blue jerseys, would you bet on them the next time this situation arises solely on that 11-1 trend?

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by raycabino

OSU, it is great to find trends but in order for them to have success going forward there has to be some logic behind why the trend is having success. Another words, if the salamanders are 11-1 on Wednesdays vs teams that wear blue jerseys, would you bet on them the next time this situation arises solely on that 11-1 trend?

No.

Do you think that "When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During the month of May - Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent - Coming off a 1 game win" is the same as "salamanders are 11-1 on Wednesdays vs teams that wear blue jerseys"?

[raycabino]

Originally Posted by OSUCOWBOYS

No.

Do you think that "When SAN FRANCISCO team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During the month of May - Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent - Coming off a 1 game win" is the same as "salamanders are 11-1 on Wednesdays vs teams that wear blue jerseys"?

Pretty much, so I guess that is where we have our difference in opinion. Why would the fact that they just played and NL East team have any reflection on how they perform the next time out?

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by raycabino

Pretty much, so I guess that is where we have our difference in opinion. Why would the fact that they just played and NL East team have any reflection on how they perform the next time out?

You are correct. That is where our opinions differ.

Those criteria tell me how a team has performed in a very specific situation. Teams for the most part stay in tact. Some players come and go but situations that repeat themselves seem, to me, to have a reasonable chance to produce the same outcome.

I am not naive enough to think that the plays that are generated from ATSDatabase's information are going to crank out a 50-18 record and be +23.23 units every week. That is simply not possible. Do I think moving forward it is good enough to produce a positive expectation? You betcha.

Time will tell.

[raycabino]

Believe me OSU, I wish you and everyone else the best of luck using these angles. I personally do not like playing any trend if I can't find a logical reason why the trend is having success. Hopefully you make it to the mini-bash where we can bullshit more about these topics because I'm pretty slow at this typing thing.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by raycabino

Believe me OSU, I wish you and everyone else the best of luck using these angles. I personally do not like playing any trend if I can't find a logical reason why the trend is having success. Hopefully you make it to the mini-bash where we can bullshit more about these topics because I'm pretty slow at this typing thing.

It's a date. (not literally) I will be there with bells on.

Cant wait to see you there.

[raycabino]

Sounds good. See ya there.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Mondays plays are up in the MLB forum for those interested.

GL Boys!

[royalfan]

Originally Posted by OSUCOWBOYS

Wrong. The line closed (and I played it at) 8ov -20. Makes it a push.

8-7 (-.20) is correct.

Nope Betjamaica closed at 8 1/2. Loser!!!<