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| | #1 |
| EOG RE-FOUNDING FATHER Join Date: May 23, 2006
Posts: 3,882
| The Krugman Recipe for Depression Massive government spending is no solution to unemployment. By AMITY SHLAES http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1227...02265913.html# Paul Krugman of the New York Times has been on the attack lately in regard to the New Deal. His new book "The Return of Depression Economics," emphasizes the importance of New Deal-style spending. He has said the trouble with the New Deal was that it didn't spend enough. He's also arguing that some writers and economists have been misrepresenting the 1930s to make the effect of FDR's overall policy look worse than it was. I'm interested in part because Mr. Krugman has mentioned me by name. He recently said that I am the one "whose misleading statistics have been widely disseminated on the right." Mr. Krugman is a new Nobel Laureate, teaches at Princeton University and writes a column for a nationally prominent newspaper. So what he says is believed to be objective by many people, even when it isn't. But the larger reason we should care about the 1930s employment record is that the cure Roosevelt offered, the New Deal, is on everyone else's mind as well. In a recent "60 Minutes" interview, President-elect Barack Obama said, "keep in mind that 1932, 1933, the unemployment rate was 25%, inching up to 30%." The New Deal is Mr. Obama's context for the giant infrastructure plan his new team is developing. If he proposes FDR-style recovery programs, then it is useful to establish whether those original programs actually brought recovery. The answer is, they didn't. New Deal spending provided jobs but did not get the country back to where it was before. This reality shows most clearly in the data -- everyone's data. During the Depression the federal government did not survey unemployment routinely as it does today. But a young economist named Stanley Lebergott helped the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington compile systematic unemployment data for that key period. He counted up what he called "regular work" such as a job as a school teacher or a job in the private sector. He intentionally did not include temporary jobs in emergency programs -- because to count a short-term, make-work project as a real job was to mask the anxiety of one who really didn't have regular work with long-term prospects. The result is what we today call the Lebergott/Bureau of Labor Statistics series. They show one man in four was unemployed when Roosevelt took office. They show joblessness overall always above the 14% line from 1931 to 1940. Six years into the New Deal and its programs to create jobs or help organized labor, two in 10 men were unemployed. Mr. Lebergott went on to become one of America's premier economic historians at Wesleyan University. His data are what I cite. So do others, including our president-elect in the "60 Minutes" interview. Later, Lee Ohanian of UCLA studied New Deal unemployment by the number of hours worked. His picture was similar to Mr. Lebergott's. Even late in 1939, total hours worked by the adult population was down by a fifth from the 1929 level. To be sure, Michael Darby of UCLA has argued that make-work jobs should be counted. Even so, his chart shows that from 1931 to 1940, New Deal joblessness ranges as high as 16% (1934) but never gets below 9%. Nine percent or above is hardly a jobless target to which the Obama administration would aspire. What kept the picture so dark so long? Deflation for one, but also the notion that government could engineer economic recovery by favoring the public sector at the expense of the private sector. New Dealers raised taxes again and again to fund spending. The New Dealers also insisted on higher wages when businesses could ill afford them. Roosevelt, for example, signed into law first his National Recovery Administration, whose codes forced businesses to pay an above-market minimum wage, and then the Wagner Act, which gave union workers more power. As a result of such policy, pay for workers in the later 1930s was well above trend. Mr. Ohanian's research documents this. High wages hurt corporate profits and therefore hiring. The unemployed stayed unemployed. "If you had a job you were all right" -- the phrase we all heard as children about the Depression -- really does capture the period. Why does all this matter today? Because lawmakers are considering new labor legislation containing "card check," which would strengthen organized labor and so its wage demands. Because employees continue to pressure firms to spend on health care, without considering they may be making the company unable to hire an unemployed friend. Piling on public-sector jobs or raising wages may take away jobs in the private sector, directly or indirectly. What the new administration decides about marginal tax rates also matters. Mr. Obama said in a Thanksgiving talk that he wanted to "create or save 2.5 million new jobs." People who talk about saving new jobs are usually talking about the private-sector's capacity to generate jobs in the future -- not about the public sector alone. We know that the new administration is going to spend. But how? It can try to figure out a way to do that without hurting the private sector. Or it can just spend, Krugman-wise, and risk repeating the very depression we seek to avoid. Ms. Shlaes is senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of "The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression" (HarperPerennial, 2008). |
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| | #2 |
| takin' nitrates for chest pain Join Date: Dec 02, 2007 Location: dixie
Posts: 1,931
| worked for the third reich that hitler guy had germany out of a 50% unemployment depression PDQ looked cool too
__________________ "Given the catastrophe of the communist victories, I have always thought that those like myself who were opposed to the American efforts in Indochina should be very humble." William Shawcross |
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| | #3 |
| takin' nitrates for chest pain Join Date: Dec 02, 2007 Location: dixie
Posts: 1,931
| so cool decades later george lucas ripped off the Nazis for half his star wars series imagery
__________________ "Given the catastrophe of the communist victories, I have always thought that those like myself who were opposed to the American efforts in Indochina should be very humble." William Shawcross |
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| | #4 |
| takin' nitrates for chest pain Join Date: Dec 02, 2007 Location: dixie
Posts: 1,931
| more than half I think damn near all of it save for the critters
__________________ "Given the catastrophe of the communist victories, I have always thought that those like myself who were opposed to the American efforts in Indochina should be very humble." William Shawcross |
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| | #5 |
| EOG RE-FOUNDING FATHER Join Date: May 23, 2006
Posts: 3,882
| If Obama stays true to his campaign platform and capitulates to all the left wing groups now lining up getting ready to feed at the public trough, Barry, Nancy and Harry will plunge America into the Great Depression 2.0. Take that to the bank -- or what will be left of them after Obama starts "spreading the wealth" and nationalizing our economy. But there's an even bigger part of the picture Amity Shlaes (one of my fav economists) doesn't mention. Currently there's about 14 trillion -- T-R-I-L-L-I-O-N with a capital 'T' -- dollars of US wealth parked offshore that would filter it's way back into the economy....if we could just somehow get rid of all the corrupt socialists in Washington and implement a more fairer, simpler, anti-progressive, anti-left wing tax system. No govt spending required. There's no need for an "economic stimulus" that will send the already ballooning deficit into the stratosphere to "jump start the economy." There's already more than enough US treasure parked throughout the world to create a made-in-America economic boom that would make the Reagan Boom (the last 30 years) look like Jimmy Carter's malaise. As the American economy begins to look more like Europe, is it any wonder that it's wealth and formerly robust industrial base (and disintegrating middle class) is ending up in foreign cities like Beijing and Bali? Why? Why does virtually every fortune 500 company have offices and factories overseas? Answer: because arbitrary definitions of 'fairness' in the form of punitive regulations and draconian taxes aren't sound or realistic economic and business principles, that's why. Memo to all the simpletons who voted for "change": "Spread the wealth around" is a proven failed delusional Marxist philosophy the smart money will never -- EVER -- willfully participate in. That's why Europe's unemployment rate is double what it is here. That's why the Soviet Union collapsed under it's own dead weight. And that's why Keynesian economics plunged America into the Great Depression. People keep reassuring me that Obama is a "intelligent guy" ("Harvard educated")...that he can't possibly be this stupid to believe centralized planning and massive deficit spending actually works...and that he used MoveOn.org, Daily Kos, Huffington Compost and all the left wing nutjobs who voted for him to rise to power the same way he used Rev. Wright and Tony Rezko. Well...we shall see, won't we? What a nightmare in the making. Does anyone believe in individual and property rights anymore? Does the left believe that a man is entitled to the fruits of his labor? Or have we reached the point where a large majority of the population actually believe government should be picking the winners and losers? If Citibank and the unions in GM deserve a handout because....well, I don't know why...where's my "fair share"? Where's yours? "Yes we can!" ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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| | #6 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| ... Peter Schiff 051108 - Obama = print print print print print http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ahaczm7Ahw |
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| | #7 | |
| EOG RE-FOUNDING FATHER Join Date: May 23, 2006
Posts: 3,882
| Quote:
![]() ![]() After he's done with all his social engineering, today's hard working middle class will be living out the same cardboard box as Hussein's brother, but hey, cheer up lefties...at least you'll be able to trumpet that the proverbial "gap between rich and poor" has significantly shrunk and the United States is no longer the world's superpower. That's what what you want, isn't it? Because it's much better for everyone to live in poverty than for the freeloaders to feel left behind. | |
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| | #8 |
| Packers go Super Bowl in 2011 Join Date: Feb 04, 2008 Location: Auburn, Alabama
Posts: 1,118
| Good old Keynesian economics also provides for what Keynes called "The balanced budget multiplier" that stimulated the economy. That is if I am not mistaken in 40 years since I took econ without a balanced budget. |
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| | #9 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| And away we go! ![]() Gerald Celente on Fox and Friends Expect The Greatest Depression 31 May 2009 The Greatest Depression greater than the 30s depression , the 08 panic , the Dot Com Bubble the housing bubble the stimulus package is masking the symptoms but not curing the ills , the bailout bubble is going to be the mother of all bubbles , we will then have the Greatest Depression...Gerald Celente is a political Atheist a true Gold believer , he is not a broker or trader , he sees the world with a neutral eye ...if you want to survive the Greatest depression you have to get out of the dollar buy gold and focus on quality on everything... |
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| | #10 |
| EOG Veteran Join Date: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 1,219
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| | #11 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| This should be of NO concern to anyone, and is pure fear mongering The Government knows best how to allocate resources and capital to maximize productivity ![]() 10:55 a.m. EST Fraudsters eye huge stimulus pie Companies will face extra requirements to prevent problems By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Swindlers, con men and thieves could siphon off as much as $1 out of every $10 spent as billions of dollars in stimulus money begin flowing into all corners of the economy in coming months. Companies will face increased pressure to try to stem the tide, and need to be prepared to safeguard data as well as the cash, according to David Williams, the chief executive of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services. Williams said this week that the money flowing from the current stimulus package is particularly vulnerable to fraud because almost all movement of money is now done electronically. "We're telling our clients to be very careful and to make sure their firms are resilient in terms of dealing with the potential opportunities for fraud and waste," Williams said. That means keeping an eye out for the traditional scams such as billing for services not performed. But it also means firms must become even more diligent about electronic records and network security. "It becomes ever more important that firms remain diligent about their data," Williams said. 27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000> Stimulus Funds Susceptible to Fraud As much as 10% of the federal government's stimulus money is likely to get lost to fraud, says David Williams, chief executive of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services. MarketWatch's Greg Morcroft reports. Earlier this month, FBI director Robert Mueller warned the nation to brace for a potential crime wave involving fraud and corruption related to the economic stimulus package. "These funds are inherently vulnerable to bribery, fraud, conflicts of interest, and collusion. There is an old adage, that where there is money to be made, fraud is not far behind, like bees to honey," Mueller said. See full story. Earlier this month, Vice President Joe Biden said some stimulus-related scams had already happened and that mistakes were inevitable. President Barack Obama said Monday that the White House is trying to make sure the stimulus money isn't being ill-spent. He said many of the safeguards and transparency measures "so far seem to have worked" but added his administration will have to stay vigilant. "At a time when everybody is tightening their belts, the last thing the American people want to see is that any of this money is being wasted," Obama said. Potential damage Williams suggested that the fraud and theft losses from the roughly $787 billion stimulus package approved earlier this year could reach about $50 billion. "The rule of thumb typically is that of the about $500 billion worth of money that's going to run through the procurement process, somewhere between 5% and 10% of that usually finds it way into potential problems," Williams said. "That's sort of the benchmark that I use." Williams said firms would be well advised to beef up monitoring of their transaction systems, and that his firm is helping clients develop software and computer systems to predict and catch fraud before it gets started. Williams acknowledged that the FBI has geared up its efforts to focus on financial scams. He said other agencies, including the Department of Justice, as well as industry watchdogs are also beefing up oversight. "They are going to spend their time making sure that this money gets to being used in the way it's supposed to be used," Williams added. After 9-11, counterterrorism became the FBI's top priority, even as the agency grappled with corporate crime such as the Enron and WorldCom scandals, said Muller, who took the helm of the FBI on Sept. 4, 2001, just one week ahead of the terrorist attacks. The 9-11 attacks prompted the FBI and other government agencies to divert resources from financial fraud and other corporate crimes to fighting terrorism, including the transfer of 2,000 agents tracking white-collar crime to counterterrorism, Mueller said. But now the focus is returning to white-collar crime and fraud in a big way. "These rules will come right back to haunt companies if they are not careful," Williams said. "So firms need to make sure that their organizations are ready to receive funds and protect those funds diligently as the potential for fraud surfaces." He said that that for the largest companies used to doing contract work with the government a high level of oversight will be business as usual. "But there will be others where this is unprecedented and they will have to do more to comply," Williams added. Meanwhile, Obama said the White House will keep trying to make sure citizens know where the stimulus money is going. "We're going to do it continuing to operate in a transparent fashion so that taxpayers know this money is not being wasted on a bunch of boondoggles," Obama said at the White House on Monday. Robert Schroeder contributed to this story |
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| | #12 |
| WTF Pointer-Outer Join Date: Aug 19, 2006 Location: Reality
Posts: 8,563
| Assuming momentarily any of this is true, why does any of this surprise anyone? Now, rather than just hand a blank check to Halliburton, et al., the swindlers and invoice-padders have to be slightly more creative to leach off the public teat. Two sides of the same coin; the players may change but the plot stays the same--"it's the money, stupid". . .As long as I get my indictments, out of Iraq, and real, live humans on the Supreme Court--"frankly my dear, I don't give a damn." |
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| | #13 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| Yeh, it sure looks like things are turning around. Where are all these stories in the national media since they elected the messiah???? Sunday, June 14, 2009 The Collapse of Empire America . Gerald Celente is Right Is this The Future of America ? Total devastation in places like Detroit , I am sure Los Angeles or New York are not much better , After the burst of the housing bubble and the collapse of the auto industry , entire neighborhoods ravaged by drugs , gangs crime and drug dealers , normal citizens are left alone facing the deterioration , America looks more and more like a no man's land or a third world country , is this the bottom of the crisis or just the beginning of it ? only time will tell , Gerald Celente predicts the total collapse of empire America after the bailout bubble bursts , America is thorn between two wars in foreign soils thousands of kilometers from its shores and a domestic economic crisis the like of it never seen before |
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| | #14 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Oct 26, 2007 Location: illinois
Posts: 2,396
| If you honestly think Detroit just started looking like a 3rd world country in the last few months then you need to get out more.This shit has been going on for years but the blind Bush homers kept drinking the kool aid and believing Fox news thinking their master was doing a great job. |
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| | #15 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| Saturday, June 27, 2009 U.S. Mass-Layoffs at Record High Large-scale lay-offs in the U.S. (defined as lay-offs of 50 or greater at one time) hit the highest level since this statistic was created in 1995, according to an article from CNN. This is yet another indication that the U.S. economy is plummeting downward – with absolutely no signs of stability, let alone a “recovery”. Up to this point, the U.S. government has been very successful in duping market sheep (i.e. the “experts”) through publishing totally fraudulent monthly jobs reports. With the U.S. economy losing roughly 2 million jobs each month (“U.S. economy to lose 20 MILLION jobs this year”see ), the government claimed that less than 400,000 jobs were lost in May. The fact that the unemployment rate continues soaring higher each month, that “mass lay-offs” are at record levels, and with state governments across the U.S. slashing spending to meet budget shortfalls (i.e slashing jobs) conclusively demonstrates that “official” government reports have absolutely no connection to reality. Even if this rate of decline is now linear (i.e. falling at the same rate each month), this does not imply “stability”. Jobs are being lost in the U.S. at least as fast as during the Great Depression – if not faster. To suggest that this implies “moderation” is simply stupidity, from people who have absolutely no understanding of basic arithmetic. Link ![]() |
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| | #16 | |
| EOG RE-FOUNDING FATHER Join Date: May 23, 2006
Posts: 3,882
| Quote:
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| | #17 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| All the zombies will wake up when its too late Thursday, July 2, 2009 We are in a middle of a CRASH: Mainstream News The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," told CNBC Thursday. "You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them, you may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that's breaking," Taleb said on "Squawk Box." Anything that's fragile like the financial system will eventually crash, he said. "We're in the middle of a crash," Taleb said. "So if I'm going to forecast something, it is that it's going to get worse, not better." The government needs to deleverage debt and not try stimulus packages that will inflate assets, he said. "What makes me very pessimistic in not seeing any leadership or awareness on parts of government on what has to be done, which is deleverage $40-to-$70 trillion," Taleb said. "The monkey on our back is debt," he added. As an example, Taleb said banks should not be sending demands for larger and larger sums from homeowner in arrears on their mortgage. Instead the bank should offer to lower the monthly payments in return for part-ownership of the property. "People would be able to start from scratch on a healthy basis. You don't want to wait for foreclosure," he said. Link Posted by Economic analyst at 11:57 AM 3 comments [ |
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| | #18 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| This man should scare every breathing human being living in the USA Saturday, July 4, 2009 Paul Krugman: We are heading right back to the 1930's, but more Stimulus? Paul Krugman says that the jobs report confirms that we're plunging right back toward another Great Depression. We've lost 6.5 million jobs since the peak. After adjusting for population growth, we're down 8.5 million. As Richard Bernstein noted yesterday, wages and the workweek are also declining. Obama's stimulus, meanwhile, promises to create 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year (if you believe the projections). So, by then, assuming no further loss in jobs (please), we'll be about 5 million below where we should be. And state and city budget pressures are wiping out many of the benefits of the federal stimulus. So we're setting ourselves up for another lost decade. Krugman's answer, not surprisingly, is more stimulus now: ![]() All of this is depressingly familiar to anyone who has studied economic policy in the 1930s. Once again a Democratic president has pushed through job-creation policies that will mitigate the slump but aren’t aggressive enough to produce a full recovery. Once again much of the stimulus at the federal level is being undone by budget retrenchment at the state and local level. So have we failed to learn from history, and are we, therefore, doomed to repeat it? Not necessarily — but it’s up to the president and his economic team to ensure that things are different this time. President Obama and his officials need to ramp up their efforts, starting with a plan to make the stimulus bigger. Just to be clear, I’m well aware of how difficult it will be to get such a plan enacted... Read the whole thing >Link |
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| | #19 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| Ah what the hell, we took a shot , its only money ![]() |
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| | #20 | |
| Obama - Worst US President EVER Join Date: Sep 29, 2006 Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 4,268
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| | #21 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
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| | #22 |
| EOG Enthusiast Join Date: May 19, 2009
Posts: 127
| Gerald Celente is a kook. |
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| | #23 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| Hes out there all right
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| | #24 |
| Obama - Worst US President EVER Join Date: Sep 29, 2006 Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 4,268
| I'll be damned -- someone actually read their history book and figured out all massive government spending does is rack up massive debt as FDR doubled the national debt from 1932-1940. The dumb ass FDR. His treasury secretary finally figured it out when he wrote ... "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work.” The words are those of none other than Henry Morgenthau Jr. — close friend, lunch companion, loyal secretary of the Treasury to President Franklin D. Roosevelt — and key architect of FDR’s New Deal. The date: May 9, 1939. The setting: Morgenthau’s appearance in Washington before less influential Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee. Morgenthau made this “startling confession,” as historian Burton W. Folsom Jr. calls it, during the seventh year of FDR’s New Deal programs to combat the rampant unemployment of the Great Depression. “In these words, Morgenthau summarized a decade of disaster, especially during the years Roosevelt was in power. Indeed average unemployment for the whole year in 1939 would be higher than that in 1931, the year before Roosevelt captured the presidency from Herbert Hoover,” Folsom writes in his new book, “New Deal or Raw Deal?: How FDR’s Economic Legacy Has Damaged America.” Indeed, with those words, Morgenthau confessed what so many keepers of FDR’s flame won’t admit today: The New Deal was failed public policy. Massive spending on public works programs didn’t erase historic unemployment. It didn’t produce a recovery. |
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| | #25 | |
| EOG RE-FOUNDING FATHER Join Date: May 23, 2006
Posts: 3,882
| Quote:
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| | #26 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| Top 10 Most Ridiculous Uses of Stimulus Funds Morgen on December 28, 2009 “Putting Americans to work doing the work that America needs done“… 10. A $427,824 research grant to design better video games for senior citizens based on their unique “game-play needs”. 9. Funding of a Dartmouth College study involving “sexual arousal in anesthetized female rats” ($9,870). 8. Funding of a $168,300 SBA loan to the Escape Massage parlor in Midlothian, VA.7. Funding a $447,492 Univ. of North Carolina study on the development and use of “African American English” amongst 70 adolescents. 6. $10,346 for a heating and cooling company to provide “escort services” for other companies performing a laser scanning survey at a courthouse in Honolulu, Hawaii. 5. An academic study comparing outcomes of the concurrent and separate use of malt liquor and marijuana ($389, 357). 4. A $225,000 study at Ohio State University on the relative and combined impacts of air pollution and a high fat diet on obesity development. 3. A $712,883 research grant to develop “machine-generated humor“. Project will design artificially intelligent “comedic performance agents”, and will “deploy them both on and off-line for the enjoyment and illumination of everyday citizens”. 2. A $54 million project to relocate one bridge for the Napa Valley Wine Train (!) in order to mitigate the possible impact of a “100 year storm event”. ![]() And the number one most ridiculous use of stimulus funds… 1. $9.3 million (!) to fund the design and development of a “coordinated colony of robotic bees“! Our tax dollars hard at work, saving or creating jobs for mad scientists and masseurs everywhere. And I’m sure I’ve only scratched the surface with these http://www.verumserum.com/?p=11141 ![]() |
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| | #27 |
| EOG Dedicated Join Date: Aug 20, 2006
Posts: 2,110
| SCHIFF DESTROYS KRUGMAN |
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| | #28 | |
| Packers go Super Bowl in 2011 Join Date: Feb 04, 2008 Location: Auburn, Alabama
Posts: 1,118
| Quote:
__________________ Sell the stock market short all of 2010. Cover when the downtrend changes, S&P 500 when this was posted=1059.75 Then on Nov 2, 2010 VOTE the spenders OUT. | |
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