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Thread: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

  1. #316

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    I think the line last year was -180 or so. Boston is a year older and as I posted in another thread, player production drops off precipitously in the mid-30s.

    (the % represents change from previous season)

    23 to 24: +2%
    24 to 25: no change
    25 to 26: -2%
    26 to 27: -4%
    27 to 28: -6%
    28 to 29: -9%
    29 to 30: -11%
    30 to 31: -17%
    31 to 32: -22%
    32 to 33: -35%
    33 to 34: -57%
    34 to 35: -146%

    Just look at Shaq who at age 32 was one of the top handful of players in the league and at age 34 was statistically just a shade above an average center in the NBA.

    This combined with Lebron's dominance this season (on display the last two games with the best two performances of the playoffs in the two most important games for Miami) formulated my estimate.

  2. #317
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Is bosh going to be back by then?

  3. #318

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    If the Heat play the Spurs in the NBA Finals, we could witness the biggest coaching mismatch and strategic edge in the history of the game.

    Popovich against Spoestra is a mismatch.
    I think Popovich had a big edge over Lionel Hollins as well when they were a 1 seed bounced by an 8 seed last year. I haven't heard mention of this with all the Pop praise in this thread. He is the best coach remaining IMO.....gimme OKC in the series.

  4. #319

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    I think Popovich had a big edge over Lionel Hollins as well when they were a 1 seed bounced by an 8 seed last year. I haven't heard mention of this with all the Pop praise in this thread. He is the best coach remaining IMO.....gimme OKC in the series.
    I preferred your Derby analysis.

  5. #320

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Dodged a bullet with Miami, that was my good sweat for the playoffs. Market bidding up San Antonio.

  6. #321
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Congrats on the Miami play, they looked dead midway through game 4 to me.
    ---may the odds be ever in your favor.

  7. #322

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Shame on Indiana for inciting Miami with Stephenson's choke sign, West's rough play and Granger's mouth.

  8. #323
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    All signs of a team not quite ready to win, John. NBA history is littered with teams who needed to learn some painful lessons before climbing O'Brien summit. Even Jordan's 6-time champion Chicago clubs needed some seasoning and tenderizing before going on their tremendous run in the 90's.
    ---may the odds be ever in your favor.

  9. #324

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Shame on Indiana for inciting Miami with Stephenson's choke sign, West's rough play and Granger's mouth.
    That's why they won, nothing to do with vast talent differential.

  10. #325

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Lacking guys that can break down the defense well enough. Better regular season team as they are deep and play hard, but in playoffs everyone plays hard and depth not as big a factor with coaches having more urgency.

  11. #326

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    That's why they won, nothing to do with vast talent differential.
    That's why and when the Heat woke up, not why they won.

    It also helped that D-Wade had his knee drained after the Game 3 loss in which he scored only five points.

  12. #327

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Lacking guys that can break down the defense well enough. Better regular season team as they are deep and play hard, but in playoffs everyone plays hard and depth not as big a factor with coaches having more urgency.
    Agree.

    Indiana doesn't have a "next level."

  13. #328

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    RF is spot on, depth and bench outside the 6th man are irrelevant in the playoffs.

    JK, I still have to laugh at the notion that any of that contributed to the outcome of the series. I'm confident that Miami had sufficient motivation before all of that. And wasn't the choke sign in Game 2 anyway?

  14. #329

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by WVU View Post
    Tim, can I get a prediction on the series line for Boston-Miami?
    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Away from my computer for the weekend so can't give you the actual number assuming there were no material changes to player production or playoff adjustments (far greater in NBA than MLB and football). My guess right now would be -420.
    Quote Originally Posted by Doughboy View Post
    I will venture a guess of -350, not that I see much of a chance of Boston winning absent an injury to LBJ or Wade.
    Just ran the numbers:

    Miami -505 vs Boston
    Miami -545 vs Philly

  15. #330

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Just ran the numbers:

    Miami -505 vs Boston
    Miami -545 vs Philly
    what was your Bos/Philly series line?

  16. #331

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    thanks for the plays Tim.

    you model games too?

  17. #332

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Just ran the numbers:

    Miami -505 vs Boston
    Miami -545 vs Philly

  18. #333

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    RF is spot on, depth and bench outside the 6th man are irrelevant in the playoffs.

    JK, I still have to laugh at the notion that any of that contributed to the outcome of the series. I'm confident that Miami had sufficient motivation before all of that. And wasn't the choke sign in Game 2 anyway?
    You haven't watched the Spurs play over the last eight games.

  19. #334

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72001 View Post
    what was your Bos/Philly series line?
    If memory serves, IT made Boston a ridiculously-low -130.

  20. #335

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.
    Not sure the "fear factor" is applicable with today's cocky athletes.

  21. #336
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    5dimes has those numbers up already. As expected the Heat are a much bigger fav against Philly than Boston.

  22. #337

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Maybe fear is wrong choice of wording, but you have to believe you can win. I don't think Philly does against Miami. Or won't in a hurry after one ass whooping. Doesn't matter anyway. It will be Boston.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Not sure the "fear factor" is applicable with today's cocky athletes.

  23. #338

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Rare club that doesn't seem to miss a beat no matter who the hell is in the game. Doesn't mean all those players and that depth is essential to them winning though. They could easily be playing as well with more condensed lineup.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    You haven't watched the Spurs play over the last eight games.

  24. #339

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    philly is something like 1-10 last two years vs Miami. philly has no shot against the heat and they would know it

    but I agree they shouldnt get there

  25. #340
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Doughboy View Post
    I will venture a guess of -350, not that I see much of a chance of Boston winning absent an injury to LBJ or Wade.
    Well, well, well, just saw this available:

    05/26/2012
    08:05 PM (EST)
    883
    884
    Boston Celtics (Series)
    Miami Heat (Series)
    +303
    -363

  26. #341
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.
    Correct.

    05/26/2012
    08:05 PM (EST)
    883
    884
    Philadelphia 76ers (Series)
    Miami Heat (Series)
    +425
    -550

  27. #342

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Just ran the numbers:

    Miami -505 vs Boston
    Miami -545 vs Philly
    Nice prediction. Currently -502 at Pinnacle.

  28. #343

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Yeah -360 was a joke, but small limits on those at 5D prevented taking a massive position. Everyone following should have hit it for at least a couple whacks.

    To answer your first question, my technique is based on individual player production and in order to project this you have to estimate how many minutes a guy will play. This is more reliable in the playoffs and has less variability for an entire series so series plays and their derivatives are all I really bet (i.e. I was betting Miami to win Eastern Conf at various prices throughout the playoffs as a way to fade an overvalued Boston team and bet on a Miami team that is built for playoff basketball).

  29. #344

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Cool, thanks for sharing Tim

  30. #345

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Re: JK's Monday blog

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    You have no idea how math works which is why you don't understand JK's statement. In order to produce a profitable model you need first and foremost an understanding of what makes teams win and how the betting market values these factors. Then you quantify these theories and you can have an edge if they're predictive and undervalued. I've posted many of these throughout my thread including the one JK referenced. There are dozens others involving shot charts, shooting tendencies, volatility, etc that I won't share.

    My belief that only the first six players matter in the NBA playoffs comes from an individual player model. When you apply this model to the regular season, the individual player production of the top 6 explains 80% of wins. So clearly depth matters in the regular season and needs to be accounted for. This is one of the reasons I don't bet the regular season NBA, it's just too much work to model 10-12 players for each team and every game.

    When this individual player model is applied to the playoffs however, the production of the top 6 players accounts for over 99% of wins. Therefore I basically ignore it. You can trade players 7-12 on any team and nothing would change. Because each playoff game is so monumental to your chances of winning the series, coaches are more willing to play the best players for longer. Lebron on his 42nd minute will always be a more productive player than the fresh 8th man off the bench and most coaches (minus Karl and del Negro I've learned) understand this.

  31. #346

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    JMO, I think the Spurs team matters going more than 6-deep.

  32. #347

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Tim, what would you make SA/MIA and OKC/MIA ?

  33. #348

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Assuming no drastic changes to rotations (which OKC needs badly), Mia -170 and Mia -390

  34. #349

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Wow, kinda shocked by that. Really figured either team from the west would have been slight favs. I wish I could lock in Spurs +150 right now

  35. #350

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Assuming no drastic changes to rotations (which OKC needs badly), Mia -170 and Mia -390
    Not even close....... You give me SA +150?

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