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  1. #211

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by kirkmuller View Post
    OK, and those bets would all individually be +EV?
    Ideally or 0 EV just to hedge some if the other bets are extreme +EV. For NFL games with a ton of props you can find +EV on both sides.

  2. #212

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Karl didn't blow the game. His team was outmanned. Without Harrington making shots they wouldn't have been in it. You don't want him in they lose. He doesn't play they lose. Just have to face the facts. LA is a little bit better. Not much, but a little bit. Thus the result. Karl did one hell of a job as a matter of fact. Without his coaching, that team may not have even made the playoffs. He got a shitload out of them this year. Couldn't afford to lose a home game and they did.

  3. #213

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ideally or 0 EV just to hedge some if the other bets are extreme +EV. For NFL games with a ton of props you can find +EV on both sides.
    No bet should ever be made to "hedge" if it is close enough to be considered 0 ev. Trust me, I have 15-20 wagers on many games. Over time, those are completely useless. Especially when you consider that many books want 50-50 action etc. I get that you want to hedge. But over the long run there is no need. You will learn that as you go. You have a great knowledge base for your age. The back and forth with High Times is comical. What a mismatch of intelligence levels.

  4. #214

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Karl didn't blow the game. His team was outmanned. Without Harrington making shots they wouldn't have been in it. You don't want him in they lose. He doesn't play they lose. Just have to face the facts. LA is a little bit better. Not much, but a little bit. Thus the result. Karl did one hell of a job as a matter of fact. Without his coaching, that team may not have even made the playoffs. He got a shitload out of them this year. Couldn't afford to lose a home game and they did.
    Lakers blew it when they did not come to play in game 5. Can;t do that in the post season or you can blow series. Bynum played ok tonight but played with ZERO heart.

    Karl is a GREAT coach by everyone standards who has a brain. The guy is great and proved it again in this series because that team was outmanned but fought heart and have a great system lead by Karl.
    He has just proven it? You can't be serious. Nobody with a brain takes Heim
    seriously, and this is not a new devlopment. Heim would get cut from a Special Olympics debate team. Common knowledge.

  5. #215

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Not sure what Bynum you were watching Brady, butI wasn't watching the same Bynum you were. He played with a shitload of courage tonight. Diving on ground for boards, challenging shots everywhere, blocking shots everywhere, mans man on glass. You name it. Not sure what game you were watching.

  6. #216

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    lol Bynum has 11 offensive rebounds and he played with no heart according to TB#1

  7. #217

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Btw pretty good article from after G2 of the LA series

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...f-andrew-bynum

  8. #218

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Not sure what Bynum you were watching Brady, butI wasn't watching the same Bynum you were. He played with a shitload of courage tonight. Diving on ground for boards, challenging shots everywhere, blocking shots everywhere, mans man on glass. You name it. Not sure what game you were watching.
    I was talking about his effort in this series. Steve Kerr said TONIGHt it seemed like Bynum DID NOT CARE in Denver the way he played. He is right. It was obvious.
    He has just proven it? You can't be serious. Nobody with a brain takes Heim
    seriously, and this is not a new devlopment. Heim would get cut from a Special Olympics debate team. Common knowledge.

  9. #219

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by munson15 View Post
    Tim, I like Miami here, too, but am spooked by the fact that Pinnacle has the best price on them. My experience is that 5dimes usually undercuts them slightly, but they are at -825.
    Market finally came to its senses, Miami -945 now at 5D.

    LAL didn't open as overvalued as I was hoping, no bet there.

  10. #220

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Lebron certainly didn't look passive in 4Q today, guess he lost the unclutch gene. Dominant performance with 15 rebs and outstanding defense in addition to controlling the game offensively in the 4th.

  11. #221
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    James played great, but he carried the ball on that pass from Wade for the spread-covering basket, though.
    ---may the odds be ever in your favor.

  12. #222
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Knowing math and knowing how to bet are two different things. I think this thread is making that clear.

  13. #223

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chessman View Post
    Knowing math and knowing how to bet are two different things. I think this thread is making that clear.
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.

  14. #224

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by buffettgambler View Post
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.
    Thanks BG, I really used your MLB/NFL threads as the model, trying to explain where the value derives from and offering some market commentary. Of course according to Chess and HT, someone like you who moves the markets and wins long term using purely quantitative methods couldn't exist.

    I did just bet Oklahoma City -420 at 5Dimes after it had been bet down some.

  15. #225
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by buffettgambler View Post
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.


    Another "Master of the obvious"


  16. #226
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Market finally came to its senses, Miami -945 now at 5D.

    LAL didn't open as overvalued as I was hoping, no bet there.


    Bozo

  17. #227

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    How did I miss all that value on the -945? I guess Im not sharp enough.

  18. #228

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    Another "Master of the obvious"
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

    Been there DONE that !!!!



    Like I said if we were all in the same room....

    You wouldn't say a word.


  20. #230
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

    I love how you respond

    You don't bet ... wa wa wa

    You 2 guys will never come close to the amount of money I have bet in my lifetime.

    That means nothing to me though as this business is MY BUSINESS.....

    You guys are just little parts of it and I thank you for that.

    We need all the Bettors we can get!!!


  21. #231
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    wtf does that even mean


    It means he couldn't talk shit!

    On the internet he can lie and lie and make up anything he wants because he doesn't have to prove a thing. He is all bullshit....


  22. #232

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    not that i know you, him, or even give a shit, but based on that logic, why wouldn't we assume that you, too, are all bullshit, if you are assuming he's all bullshit?
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.

  23. #233
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    not that i know you, him, or even give a shit, but based on that logic, why wouldn't we assume that you, too, are all bullshit, if you are assuming he's all bullshit?

    You can assume anything you want.

    I would hope that some of the shit I post would get most people to understand that I have been around a long time and know a lot of people in the business.

    No one can make up that much stuff.... I was around before the line services where you could pick a part Las Vegas Casinos lines sitting right next to each other. Those were the days. I bet in the stardust lottery for over 10 years betting the opening lines.

    I could careless if anyone believes what I post.

    It is getting old though arguing with people that PRETEND to have NEW ways to beat sports betting. I have seen them all.

  24. #234
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.


    No you act like Math was just invented.

    All the crap you post ....... For most people it is good info!!!!! ......... New Bettors that is....

    But nothing you talk about hasn't been analyzed and used over and over again.

    I have no problem with you except you ACTUALLY think you know something that isn't known.

    Be real dude.......

    Good luck, but the use of math is done by every serious bettor. You in no way are the first or last to think your sharp just because you know math.

    Again

    Good for you.... And good for the industry.

    The Sports Betting industry needs a million more like you...

    FACT

  25. #235

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.
    You feel that you bring original thought to all, but that's not the case. You do make interesting posts. As I've mentioned before, you're a very smart guy, but your numbers are just arbitrary. You pick and choose to make a point.

    To determine if a player is clutch or not, why do you pick the 4th quarter? Why not the last 5 minutes, last two minutes or last shot? You always use numbers to show that James is clutch, but we all know differently. He disappears at time in the 4th and doesn't want to take the shot. It's overshadowed when you just look at the numbers since it's not hurting his FG%.

  26. #236
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    It means he couldn't talk shit!

    On the internet he can lie and lie and make up anything he wants because he doesn't have to prove a thing. He is all bullshit....

    And you're not? You keep talking all this bullshit about how great you are but nobody's ever seen it. It's quite obvious you are a joke or you'd at least maybe share some plays for once. You must be related to Railturd. After an 0-4 day. "I've won my last 10 in a row. But it just figures I didn't post them, just the losers"

    Until I see some sort of plays or record you will always be a joke. It's just a fact.

  27. #237

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    I see. I took you saying tonight as meaning tonight.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomBrady#1 View Post
    I was talking about his effort in this series. Steve Kerr said TONIGHt it seemed like Bynum DID NOT CARE in Denver the way he played. He is right. It was obvious.

  28. #238
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    [QUOTE=dsethi;3457287]but does being around as long as you have give you the right to disregard what younger, less-seasoned bettors have to say, just because it's not 100% aligned with what you've found provides success and longevity in gambling? and vice versa, newer bettors shouldn't necessarily disregard your insights because you've been around the block far longer and perhaps some feel is out of date in your thinking.

    Not that I'm either but just saying, all's fair[/QUOTE


    First of all I never put anyone down or claimed anyone is/was a loser.

    They do that all the time with me and it's WRONG.. plus it's getting old.

    I never wish for a person to lose, but these guys don't hold back 1 second telling everyone another poster is a loser. Not just me!

    Look at the Winky post 30-30.... They act like Winky doesn't understand the odds/lines. Why do they feel the need to BLAST Winky every time they can....? It's getting old. Let Winky the fuck alone..

    You think that's cool?

    I think it's retarded how much they feel the need to show how much smarter they are.... Again Winky knows that he is making the contest much harder by playing some dogs. I say LET HIM!!!!!!!

    Did you see me blasting Winky???? I know exactly what Winky is doing, but did I feel the need to BLAST HIM????


    That post shows what these forums have become... A group of unhappy humans that feel better when they make fun of someone else ... and that someone else (winky) knows what he is doing and is OK with it.... But the HATERS will not let him alone.

    No these guys are assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Leave Winky the fuck alone

    Me ..?

    I could careless what these fucks think. The have no idea and I will leave it at that


  29. #239
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by The X View Post
    And you're not? You keep talking all this bullshit about how great you are but nobody's ever seen it. It's quite obvious you are a joke or you'd at least maybe share some plays for once. You must be related to Railturd. After an 0-4 day. "I've won my last 10 in a row. But it just figures I didn't post them, just the losers"

    Until I see some sort of plays or record you will always be a joke. It's just a fact.


    Why does it bother you?

    I don't care what anybody else claims? Why would they care what I claim?

    Seriously?

    I don't get it

  30. #240
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Look at the Winky post!


    Leave him the fuck alone


  31. #241

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Can you quit ruining the thread with your horseshit HT. I don't think one person here gives a shit what you think anyway, so please take it to a different thread. This one actually has some intelligent discussion in it. Thanks.

  32. #242

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    [QUOTE=High Times;3457296]
    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    but does being around as long as you have give you the right to disregard what younger, less-seasoned bettors have to say, just because it's not 100% aligned with what you've found provides success and longevity in gambling? and vice versa, newer bettors shouldn't necessarily disregard your insights because you've been around the block far longer and perhaps some feel is out of date in your thinking.

    Not that I'm either but just saying, all's fair[/QUOTE


    First of all I never put anyone down or claimed anyone is/was a loser.

    They do that all the time with me and it's WRONG.. plus it's getting old.

    I never wish for a person to lose, but these guys don't hold back 1 second telling everyone another poster is a loser. Not just me!

    Look at the Winky post 30-30.... They act like Winky doesn't understand the odds/lines. Why do they feel the need to BLAST Winky every time they can....? It's getting old. Let Winky the fuck alone..

    You think that's cool?

    I think it's retarded how much they feel the need to show how much smarter they are.... Again Winky knows that he is making the contest much harder by playing some dogs. I say LET HIM!!!!!!!

    Did you see me blasting Winky???? I know exactly what Winky is doing, but did I feel the need to BLAST HIM????


    That post shows what these forums have become... A group of unhappy humans that feel better when they make fun of someone else ... and that someone else (winky) knows what he is doing and is OK with it.... But the HATERS will not let him alone.

    No these guys are assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Leave Winky the fuck alone

    Me ..?

    I could careless what these fucks think. The have no idea and I will leave it at that

    He doesn't and you'd have to be a fool to not see that.

    Tell us again how you 'don't care about pennies'.


  33. #243
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    Why does it bother you?

    I don't care what anybody else claims? Why would they care what I claim?

    Seriously?



    I don't get it

    I'm not really worried. But if your such a winner, why wouldn't you share? It's us against the books right? Yet you haven't posted up shit. NOTHING. If you're the man. Throw us a bone. We don't need details. Just some winners.

    You can say what you want. But until you prove yourself. You'll aways be a joke, that tries to type big words and look cool.

    I could give a fuck if you can spell "flamingo". I'd rather have you post some winners. But you don't. Cause you're a fraud.

  34. #244

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    That's a good point, not to mention defense. When people refer to guys like Carmelo/Kobe/Durant as "pure scorers" that just means they aren't game changers on the defensive end like the true greats are/were.

    It's difficult to define "hero ball," but one of the hallmarks to me is stalling the offense at the end of games and resorting to inefficient iso sets and jump-shots. For instance look at the FG % for these guys in the 4th Q of games this year (I could take their career avgs when I have more time):

    Wade: 46.4% (222 attempts)
    Lebron: 46.3% (229 attempts)
    Durant: 46.2% (316 attempts)
    Carmelo: 41.0% (234 attempts)
    Kobe: 40.3% (355 attempts)

    To me the fact that Carmelo and Kobe are so bad in the 4th Q indicates they are making bad decisions and taking low percentage shots (or perhaps they just simply aren't "clutch). That's a clear sign of hero ball to me, preferring to take low percentage shots just because you are "the guy" instead of continuing to work the offense to get the best shot possible.
    Your definition of Clutch needs LOTS of work. Kobe was clutch with his free throws. You discount free throws. 100% for Kobe for the game and at the end. You should also count the times he gets to the line at the end of the game.

  35. #245

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Yep said as much here.

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Point is a stupid one. 4th quarter, defenses tighten up. When shot clock winding down who is left to bail them out? Yep Kobe. Also not showing in those stats, are how often he manages to get to the line in 4th quarter. How does he fare at line? .

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