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  1. #211

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Yup. In fact I even try to handicap how many points each team might score. Earth shattering I know...

  2. #212
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Yup. In fact I even try to handicap how many points each team might score. Earth shattering I know...

    There are very few people that actually know this business.

    And thus the reason everyone thinks you little boys are sharp.

    This site is a joke


  3. #213
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by groovinmahoovin View Post
    It's not necessarily a bad thing when Pinnacle has the best price in a market where they have lower juice than other books. In the IND/MIA series, Pinnacle's hold is 2.38% vs 4.1% for 5Dimes, 3.16% for Greek, 3.05 for Bookmaker. During most of the time I've checked, Pinnacle's had the best price, or close to it, on both sides.
    thanks for the info.
    ---may the odds be ever in your favor.

  4. #214

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Yes for instance if you bet Brees OV 2.5 TDs, OV 300 yards, Colston OV 0.5 TDs, longest TD OV 46.5 yds, and then bet the game under 52. Those are anti correlated. Of course it's possible to lose all of the bets, but it's low probability.

    It's a different, more precise way to express a view and instead of just making one wager on Saints -7, you spread the risk over numerous bets which helps reduce variance.
    OK, and those bets would all individually be +EV?

  5. #215

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Karl blew this game. Denver lost because they couldn't get a rebound, meanwhile they have an elite rebounder in Faried on the bench all game. Good news is LA should be overvalued vs OKC so the Laker sellers can get it back.

  6. #216

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by kirkmuller View Post
    OK, and those bets would all individually be +EV?
    Ideally or 0 EV just to hedge some if the other bets are extreme +EV. For NFL games with a ton of props you can find +EV on both sides.

  7. #217

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Karl didn't blow the game. His team was outmanned. Without Harrington making shots they wouldn't have been in it. You don't want him in they lose. He doesn't play they lose. Just have to face the facts. LA is a little bit better. Not much, but a little bit. Thus the result. Karl did one hell of a job as a matter of fact. Without his coaching, that team may not have even made the playoffs. He got a shitload out of them this year. Couldn't afford to lose a home game and they did.

  8. #218

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ideally or 0 EV just to hedge some if the other bets are extreme +EV. For NFL games with a ton of props you can find +EV on both sides.
    No bet should ever be made to "hedge" if it is close enough to be considered 0 ev. Trust me, I have 15-20 wagers on many games. Over time, those are completely useless. Especially when you consider that many books want 50-50 action etc. I get that you want to hedge. But over the long run there is no need. You will learn that as you go. You have a great knowledge base for your age. The back and forth with High Times is comical. What a mismatch of intelligence levels.

  9. #219

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Karl didn't blow the game. His team was outmanned. Without Harrington making shots they wouldn't have been in it. You don't want him in they lose. He doesn't play they lose. Just have to face the facts. LA is a little bit better. Not much, but a little bit. Thus the result. Karl did one hell of a job as a matter of fact. Without his coaching, that team may not have even made the playoffs. He got a shitload out of them this year. Couldn't afford to lose a home game and they did.
    Lakers blew it when they did not come to play in game 5. Can;t do that in the post season or you can blow series. Bynum played ok tonight but played with ZERO heart.

    Karl is a GREAT coach by everyone standards who has a brain. The guy is great and proved it again in this series because that team was outmanned but fought heart and have a great system lead by Karl.
    He has just proven it? You can't be serious. Nobody with a brain takes Heim
    seriously, and this is not a new devlopment. Heim would get cut from a Special Olympics debate team. Common knowledge.

  10. #220

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Not sure what Bynum you were watching Brady, butI wasn't watching the same Bynum you were. He played with a shitload of courage tonight. Diving on ground for boards, challenging shots everywhere, blocking shots everywhere, mans man on glass. You name it. Not sure what game you were watching.

  11. #221

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    lol Bynum has 11 offensive rebounds and he played with no heart according to TB#1

  12. #222

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Btw pretty good article from after G2 of the LA series

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...f-andrew-bynum

  13. #223

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by royalfan View Post
    Not sure what Bynum you were watching Brady, butI wasn't watching the same Bynum you were. He played with a shitload of courage tonight. Diving on ground for boards, challenging shots everywhere, blocking shots everywhere, mans man on glass. You name it. Not sure what game you were watching.
    I was talking about his effort in this series. Steve Kerr said TONIGHt it seemed like Bynum DID NOT CARE in Denver the way he played. He is right. It was obvious.
    He has just proven it? You can't be serious. Nobody with a brain takes Heim
    seriously, and this is not a new devlopment. Heim would get cut from a Special Olympics debate team. Common knowledge.

  14. #224

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by munson15 View Post
    Tim, I like Miami here, too, but am spooked by the fact that Pinnacle has the best price on them. My experience is that 5dimes usually undercuts them slightly, but they are at -825.
    Market finally came to its senses, Miami -945 now at 5D.

    LAL didn't open as overvalued as I was hoping, no bet there.

  15. #225

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Lebron certainly didn't look passive in 4Q today, guess he lost the unclutch gene. Dominant performance with 15 rebs and outstanding defense in addition to controlling the game offensively in the 4th.

  16. #226
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    James played great, but he carried the ball on that pass from Wade for the spread-covering basket, though.
    ---may the odds be ever in your favor.

  17. #227
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Knowing math and knowing how to bet are two different things. I think this thread is making that clear.

  18. #228

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Chessman View Post
    Knowing math and knowing how to bet are two different things. I think this thread is making that clear.
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.

  19. #229

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by buffettgambler View Post
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.
    Thanks BG, I really used your MLB/NFL threads as the model, trying to explain where the value derives from and offering some market commentary. Of course according to Chess and HT, someone like you who moves the markets and wins long term using purely quantitative methods couldn't exist.

    I did just bet Oklahoma City -420 at 5Dimes after it had been bet down some.

  20. #230
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by buffettgambler View Post
    Ignoring posts like this and High Times contributions, and Tim is putting together one of the better continual threads EOG has had in a while.


    Another "Master of the obvious"


  21. #231
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Market finally came to its senses, Miami -945 now at 5D.

    LAL didn't open as overvalued as I was hoping, no bet there.


    Bozo

  22. #232

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    How did I miss all that value on the -945? I guess Im not sharp enough.

  23. #233

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    Another "Master of the obvious"
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

  24. #234
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

    Been there DONE that !!!!



    Like I said if we were all in the same room....

    You wouldn't say a word.


  25. #235

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    Been there DONE that !!!!



    Like I said if we were all in the same room....

    You wouldn't say a word.

    wtf does that even mean

  26. #236
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    lol barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does BG actually bet - unlike you - but he moves the market with quarter positions

    I love how you respond

    You don't bet ... wa wa wa

    You 2 guys will never come close to the amount of money I have bet in my lifetime.

    That means nothing to me though as this business is MY BUSINESS.....

    You guys are just little parts of it and I thank you for that.

    We need all the Bettors we can get!!!


  27. #237
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    wtf does that even mean


    It means he couldn't talk shit!

    On the internet he can lie and lie and make up anything he wants because he doesn't have to prove a thing. He is all bullshit....


  28. #238

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    It means he couldn't talk shit!

    On the internet he can lie and lie and make up anything he wants because he doesn't have to prove a thing. He is all bullshit....

    not that i know you, him, or even give a shit, but based on that logic, why wouldn't we assume that you, too, are all bullshit, if you are assuming he's all bullshit?

  29. #239

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    not that i know you, him, or even give a shit, but based on that logic, why wouldn't we assume that you, too, are all bullshit, if you are assuming he's all bullshit?
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.

  30. #240
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by dsethi View Post
    not that i know you, him, or even give a shit, but based on that logic, why wouldn't we assume that you, too, are all bullshit, if you are assuming he's all bullshit?

    You can assume anything you want.

    I would hope that some of the shit I post would get most people to understand that I have been around a long time and know a lot of people in the business.

    No one can make up that much stuff.... I was around before the line services where you could pick a part Las Vegas Casinos lines sitting right next to each other. Those were the days. I bet in the stardust lottery for over 10 years betting the opening lines.

    I could careless if anyone believes what I post.

    It is getting old though arguing with people that PRETEND to have NEW ways to beat sports betting. I have seen them all.

  31. #241
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.


    No you act like Math was just invented.

    All the crap you post ....... For most people it is good info!!!!! ......... New Bettors that is....

    But nothing you talk about hasn't been analyzed and used over and over again.

    I have no problem with you except you ACTUALLY think you know something that isn't known.

    Be real dude.......

    Good luck, but the use of math is done by every serious bettor. You in no way are the first or last to think your sharp just because you know math.

    Again

    Good for you.... And good for the industry.

    The Sports Betting industry needs a million more like you...

    FACT

  32. #242

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    You can assume anything you want.

    I would hope that some of the shit I post would get most people to understand that I have been around a long time and know a lot of people in the business.

    No one can make up that much stuff.... I was around before the line services where you could pick a part Las Vegas Casinos lines sitting right next to each other. Those were the days. I bet in the stardust lottery for over 10 years betting the opening lines.

    I could careless if anyone believes what I post.

    It is getting old though arguing with people that PRETEND to have NEW ways to beat sports betting. I have seen them all.
    but does being around as long as you have give you the right to disregard what younger, less-seasoned bettors have to say, just because it's not 100% aligned with what you've found provides success and longevity in gambling? and vice versa, newer bettors shouldn't necessarily disregard your insights because you've been around the block far longer and perhaps some feel is out of date in your thinking.

    Not that I'm either but just saying, all's fair

  33. #243

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Ha too logical for him. The best is how he claims me and BG are "masters of the obvious" and yet we are among thet few to actual ever bring original or contrarian thoughts that upsets all the casual fan conventional wisdom that passes as handicapping.
    You feel that you bring original thought to all, but that's not the case. You do make interesting posts. As I've mentioned before, you're a very smart guy, but your numbers are just arbitrary. You pick and choose to make a point.

    To determine if a player is clutch or not, why do you pick the 4th quarter? Why not the last 5 minutes, last two minutes or last shot? You always use numbers to show that James is clutch, but we all know differently. He disappears at time in the 4th and doesn't want to take the shot. It's overshadowed when you just look at the numbers since it's not hurting his FG%.

  34. #244
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    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    Quote Originally Posted by High Times View Post
    It means he couldn't talk shit!

    On the internet he can lie and lie and make up anything he wants because he doesn't have to prove a thing. He is all bullshit....

    And you're not? You keep talking all this bullshit about how great you are but nobody's ever seen it. It's quite obvious you are a joke or you'd at least maybe share some plays for once. You must be related to Railturd. After an 0-4 day. "I've won my last 10 in a row. But it just figures I didn't post them, just the losers"

    Until I see some sort of plays or record you will always be a joke. It's just a fact.

  35. #245

    Default Re: IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

    I see. I took you saying tonight as meaning tonight.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomBrady#1 View Post
    I was talking about his effort in this series. Steve Kerr said TONIGHt it seemed like Bynum DID NOT CARE in Denver the way he played. He is right. It was obvious.

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