KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation and end up with ... non-guess? Brilliant.
You don't know your edge. You estimate it as best you can, but you don't know it. If your really do, you aren't gambling, are you? Even in a middle, even if you got to middle the NFL 3, +3' and -2', we'd all agree you have an edge, but no one knows exactly what it is because no one has anything but an estimate on the NFL 3 push frequency. Some of us have estimates carried out to many places after the decimal, but it's still an estimate. Even with the same DB (and choosing/building a DB is itself an estimation), give that DB to 5 sharps, and you will get 5 different push frequencies from them. They may not differ much from each other, but there's pretty much no chance their push frequencies will be the same by the second decimal place.
Your BR, the same. Most people take a % of their net and say "This is my BR for sports betting." Fine, I do that, too. But that BR is chosen by emotional comfort, so it's a way of structuring your bets to fit your emotional comfort zone. That's fine, just let's not pretend it's a math calc. It isn't. It's an emotional calculation, even if done with numbers. That's what KC is generally: an emotionally satisfying way of guessing how much to bet for those who are uncomfortable admitting that they have to guess how much to bet. There are people who find emotional comfort in math (I'm one). For them it's emotionally important to believe they aren't guessing, they're calculating. For some, this is extremely, extremely important and they will feel very threatened by the truth, so refrain from doing so. When they get red-faced and yell, "I'm not guessing how much to bet, I use Kelly!" just nod along and say, "Yes, dear."
You don't know your odds, either, btw. You can get stiffed or lose the ticket, but even without that, winning or losing impacts your taxes, so your true after-tax payoffs are unknown in advance.
KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation.
Btw, I'm not saying Kelly has no value. Rito asked what was wrong with Kelly, and I answered.
I use Kelly, too. It's a good way of structuring bet sizes, of apportioning risk. I just don't believe in deluding ourselves about what it is we're doing when we use Kelly. After guessing which wager to make, we then have to guess how much to wager. Math is good for improving the quality of both those guesses, but it doesn't mean we're no longer guessing, which means it doesn't mean emotions aren't involved.
I also know that some people are--speaking of emotions--uncomfortable calling their guesses "guesses," and feel much better calling them "estimates" or "calculations" or even "facts." So they say they strictly use Kelly but then add, "Well, 1/2 Kelly."
That "1/2" qualifier being their emotional input.
PJ, excellent posts.......................applying KC is more efficiently applied when used for other gambling ventures other than sportsbetting, the most obvious one that comes to mind of course is blackjack, the game that KC was built around.
The only think I can witness is you are not going to beat FEZZIK booking him on props or futures.
A friend of a friend who's a $100 bettor and either a lifetime loser or a marginal winner asked if I had any ideas for a sweat on a Stanley Cup finals game, so I looked at the Greek's props and he was limited to $50.
I knew it wouldn't take long for the "$100 GREEK PROPS" to surface..............
Back when I use to work for Delmar Larry, I use to joke with him and ask him what time r u putting up the props, his reply was in the spring of 2050... I told Spiro a many days we r giving money away putting up props, I donīt recall ever having a winning year dealing them.
The only time the books ever had a chance with props was the Superbowl....why do you think that futures have big juice attached to them?
Props are just a nightmare for the books...
Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....
Btw Fezzik is down overall right ever since he started posting his picks from way back when?
Does anyone know the figure?
Andy Fezzik response:
lol @ Andy....It amazes me that an educated guy like him completely ignores past (losing) results
compiled by Dreamer, Czech and ComptrBob. And really believes B2B Hilton's mean something.
to andy fezzik;
steve fezzik doesn't have THE BALLS to post his picks in the nfl after the game kicks off.
DOES NOT HAVE THE BALLS !!!
somebody send this post over to rtp.
I have copied your post to RTP.
Webmaster not so extraordinaire of www.RoughingThePunter.com
This is going to be a great NFL season watching pregame try to spin the downs and the downs and the downs of Fezzik's NFL selections and his "select" college football plays.
It'll be the same like every other year. He'll start off hot... then go damn cold. Then we'll hear the "I've had a couple of bad years" line. That one always makes me chuckle.