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Thread: Wow Fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

  1. #596

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by joeybagadonuts View Post
    Bovi way outclassed in this thread.
    Joey don't know class. Coming from you, not surprising.

  2. #597
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by pbovi View Post
    Joey don't know class. Coming from you, not surprising.
    Come on, man.

    You really want to act like you know what you're talking about w/r/t to gambling?

    Monkey and Rito would both run circles around you, and are showing it in this thread.

    You're a tout; and a bad one at that.

  3. #598

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by joeybagadonuts View Post
    Come on, man.

    You really want to act like you know what you're talking about w/r/t to gambling?

    Monkey and Rito would both run circles around you, and are showing it in this thread.

    You're a tout; and a bad one at that.
    I know Joey wannabe we have been down this road before. There was little, if any discussion regarding gambling on my end. You read in what you want to get out of it. I know it all to well.

  4. #599

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by rito View Post
    Pbovi,

    Maybe you could explain to us what's wrong with the Kelly Criterion. Dumb it down for us dumb folk without much education.
    I'm not siding with Bovi on anything here, or otherwise getting involved in this mess. I'm just making a statement about Kelly so we can have a new mess.

    KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation and end up with ... non-guess? Brilliant.

    You don't know your edge. You estimate it as best you can, but you don't know it. If your really do, you aren't gambling, are you? Even in a middle, even if you got to middle the NFL 3, +3' and -2', we'd all agree you have an edge, but no one knows exactly what it is because no one has anything but an estimate on the NFL 3 push frequency. Some of us have estimates carried out to many places after the decimal, but it's still an estimate. Even with the same DB (and choosing/building a DB is itself an estimation), give that DB to 5 sharps, and you will get 5 different push frequencies from them. They may not differ much from each other, but there's pretty much no chance their push frequencies will be the same by the second decimal place.

    Your BR, the same. Most people take a % of their net and say "This is my BR for sports betting." Fine, I do that, too. But that BR is chosen by emotional comfort, so it's a way of structuring your bets to fit your emotional comfort zone. That's fine, just let's not pretend it's a math calc. It isn't. It's an emotional calculation, even if done with numbers. That's what KC is generally: an emotionally satisfying way of guessing how much to bet for those who are uncomfortable admitting that they have to guess how much to bet. There are people who find emotional comfort in math (I'm one). For them it's emotionally important to believe they aren't guessing, they're calculating. For some, this is extremely, extremely important and they will feel very threatened by the truth, so refrain from doing so. When they get red-faced and yell, "I'm not guessing how much to bet, I use Kelly!" just nod along and say, "Yes, dear."

    You don't know your odds, either, btw. You can get stiffed or lose the ticket, but even without that, winning or losing impacts your taxes, so your true after-tax payoffs are unknown in advance.

    KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation.

  5. #600

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Btw, I'm not saying Kelly has no value. Rito asked what was wrong with Kelly, and I answered.

    I use Kelly, too. It's a good way of structuring bet sizes, of apportioning risk. I just don't believe in deluding ourselves about what it is we're doing when we use Kelly. After guessing which wager to make, we then have to guess how much to wager. Math is good for improving the quality of both those guesses, but it doesn't mean we're no longer guessing, which means it doesn't mean emotions aren't involved.

    I also know that some people are--speaking of emotions--uncomfortable calling their guesses "guesses," and feel much better calling them "estimates" or "calculations" or even "facts." So they say they strictly use Kelly but then add, "Well, 1/2 Kelly."

    That "1/2" qualifier being their emotional input.


    Cool.

  6. #601
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    PJ, excellent posts.......................applying KC is more efficiently applied when used for other gambling ventures other than sportsbetting, the most obvious one that comes to mind of course is blackjack, the game that KC was built around.

  7. #602

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by pokerjoe View Post
    I'm not siding with Bovi on anything here, or otherwise getting involved in this mess. I'm just making a statement about Kelly so we can have a new mess.

    KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation and end up with ... non-guess? Brilliant.

    You don't know your edge. You estimate it as best you can, but you don't know it. If your really do, you aren't gambling, are you? Even in a middle, even if you got to middle the NFL 3, +3' and -2', we'd all agree you have an edge, but no one knows exactly what it is because no one has anything but an estimate on the NFL 3 push frequency. Some of us have estimates carried out to many places after the decimal, but it's still an estimate. Even with the same DB (and choosing/building a DB is itself an estimation), give that DB to 5 sharps, and you will get 5 different push frequencies from them. They may not differ much from each other, but there's pretty much no chance their push frequencies will be the same by the second decimal place.

    Your BR, the same. Most people take a % of their net and say "This is my BR for sports betting." Fine, I do that, too. But that BR is chosen by emotional comfort, so it's a way of structuring your bets to fit your emotional comfort zone. That's fine, just let's not pretend it's a math calc. It isn't. It's an emotional calculation, even if done with numbers. That's what KC is generally: an emotionally satisfying way of guessing how much to bet for those who are uncomfortable admitting that they have to guess how much to bet. There are people who find emotional comfort in math (I'm one). For them it's emotionally important to believe they aren't guessing, they're calculating. For some, this is extremely, extremely important and they will feel very threatened by the truth, so refrain from doing so. When they get red-faced and yell, "I'm not guessing how much to bet, I use Kelly!" just nod along and say, "Yes, dear."

    You don't know your odds, either, btw. You can get stiffed or lose the ticket, but even without that, winning or losing impacts your taxes, so your true after-tax payoffs are unknown in advance.

    KC is an illusion. You guess at your edge, you guess at your bankroll and you guess at the odds, plug those guesses into an equation.
    Great post.I have always seen it this way also.Maybe im wrong.

  8. #603

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    The only think I can witness is you are not going to beat FEZZIK booking him on props or futures.

  9. #604
    EOG Dedicated FISHHEAD's Avatar
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    The only think I can witness is you are not going to beat FEZZIK booking him on props or futures.
    Any and every sportsbetting veteran with nary a clue accomplishes the same.....................

  10. #605

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by FISHHEAD View Post
    Any and every sportsbetting veteran with nary a clue accomplishes the same.....................
    Absolutely more than a handful win, but you are nowhere near the winning percentage.

  11. #606

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by FISHHEAD View Post
    Any and every sportsbetting veteran with nary a clue accomplishes the same.....................
    I can't even calculate how many lifetime winners that don't even bet props or futures.

  12. #607
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    I can't even calculate how many lifetime winners that don't even bet props or futures.
    All seasoned and highly accomplished pros don't do many things, not only in all that sportsbetting has to offer, but other gaming venues as well ...............every one of them is different, every one, but you know that.

  13. #608

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    The only think I can witness is you are not going to beat FEZZIK booking him on props or futures.
    Oh wow. Takes about 12 minutes to learn how to beat those. Shocking those markets are disappearing rapidly.

    Did you know the greek cut props limits to $100 For EVERYONE?

  14. #609

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    A friend of a friend who's a $100 bettor and either a lifetime loser or a marginal winner asked if I had any ideas for a sweat on a Stanley Cup finals game, so I looked at the Greek's props and he was limited to $50.

  15. #610
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    I knew it wouldn't take long for the "$100 GREEK PROPS" to surface..............

  16. #611

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by groovinmahoovin View Post
    A friend of a friend who's a $100 bettor and either a lifetime loser or a marginal winner asked if I had any ideas for a sweat on a Stanley Cup finals game, so I looked at the Greek's props and he was limited to $50.
    Greek's NHL props have had $50 standard limits for about 4-5 years. (for good reason too).

  17. #612
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Balco View Post
    Why the hate? Is this SBR? Maybe MF is a regular over there. Negative people aren't usually successful. Stick that in your crack pipe and smoke it rookie! Poster with under 500 post thinks a leader among men here. Unreal!
    Balco, MF has been around forever. Damn smart too.

  18. #613

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Back when I use to work for Delmar Larry, I use to joke with him and ask him what time r u putting up the props, his reply was in the spring of 2050... I told Spiro a many days we r giving money away putting up props, I donīt recall ever having a winning year dealing them.

  19. #614

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    The only time the books ever had a chance with props was the Superbowl....why do you think that futures have big juice attached to them?

    Props are just a nightmare for the books...
    Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....

  20. #615

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Andy Fezzik posted this today at RTP concerning Steve Fezzik’s NFL plays for the 2013 season and 2014 playoffs:

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Fezzik View Post
    Mark my words, he's going to hit 55%+ this Football season possibly 60%. Steve is laser focused on the NFL, his best sport, this year.

    Any RTP'ers who avoided him during the short bout of bad variance should get on board the Fezzik train right now. It's about to leave the station.
    I responded:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cizzle View Post
    This one short post tells the reader everything s/he needs to know about how seriously, honestly, and ethically the Brothers Fezzik take this sports service thing.

    Andy – how about a modest $1,000.00 wager that Steve Fezzik doesn't hit 55% or greater on NFL full game side and total plays, combined (the “NFL Full Game Plays”)?

    You sent TBC $750.00, which clearly is peanuts to you, so there’s no reason for you not to back up your post above with a measly $1,000.00, right?

    Proposed terms:

    1. JIO escrows the money. We'll split paying him a reasonable escrow fee, if he requires it.

    2. ComptrBob is comped the same BLAP subscription sold to any other Pregame client. ComptrBob will post here ONLY Steve’s BLAP NFL Full Game Plays (defined above). ComptrBob keeps and posts Steve’s BLAP NFL Full Game Plays record and determines and decides all issues concerning past-posting, WA at release time, and compliance with these terms. You agree that ComptrBob will also be provided all BLAP NFL Full Game Plays already released prior to the date that his BLAP subscription commences.

    3. We will pay ComptrBob a reasonable fee for his services, if he requires it.

    4. Past-posted plays are disregarded. For non-WA plays, ComptrBob arbitrates and decides what the fair WA number is, and uses that. This is entirely at ComptrBob’s discretion. Any funny business by Pregame with ComptrBob's BLAP subscription, which will also be arbitrated by ComptrBob, and you lose the bet.

    5. Weights do NOT count. For purposes of our wager, ComptrBob will grade winning percentage ONLY, and not units won/lost. This is a free roll of sorts for you since prices greater than -110 really won’t count, but I’ve balanced that by allowing ComptrBob to arbitrate and correct issues with WA numbers.

    6. After the 2014 SuperBowl, ComptrBob declares the winner of the wager, and JIO disburses the funds. ComptrBob is sole arbitrator of this wager and whether the terms ultimately agreed upon are complied with. If there are any judgment calls to be made, ComptrBob makes them and we live with them.

    If you don’t like the idea of using BLAP NFL Full Game Plays, which it would be ridiculous not to, then propose something else; i.e., Steve e-mails just ComptrBob his NFL Full Game Plays. If you want to do that, though, we’ll have to set a minimum number of plays, since I don’t put it past your brother to vanish if he starts Week 1 at 4-1. We can determine a minimum number of NFL Full Game Plays, for example, by averaging out the total NFL Full Game Plays he released to LVA each year since 2008 or whatever Chaperone’s record shows for NFL Full Game Plays each year.

    Simple enough, right?

    Or, you could blow this off with stupid excuses like:

    “ComptrBob/JIO is not trustworthy”
    ”Steve won’t let me do this”
    “RJ Bell won’t comp ComptrBob a BLAP subscription”
    “When I said, 55%, I really meant props, quarters, and halfs, and not full game sides or totals”
    Etc.

    Your call. Like I said, if you don’t like my proposed terms, I’m sure we could agree on reasonable alternative terms.
    This will likely never come together, but it should provide some entertaining forum banter over at RTP.

    Enjoy.

  21. #616

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Viejo Dinosaur View Post
    The only time the books ever had a chance with props was the Superbowl....why do you think that futures have big juice attached to them?

    Props are just a nightmare for the books...
    Amen to that...

  22. #617
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Cizzle View Post
    This will likely never come together, but it should provide some entertaining forum banter over at RTP.

    Enjoy.
    Or they'll just ban your ass and delete your post

  23. #618

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by SlipperyPete View Post
    Or they'll just ban your ass and delete your post
    Nah, I posted that at RTP. I wouldn't even think of wasting my time registering and posting at Pregame.

  24. #619
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Btw Fezzik is down overall right ever since he started posting his picks from way back when?

    Does anyone know the figure?

  25. #620

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Andy Fezzik response:

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Fezzik View Post
    Why not just use the official results?
    My response:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cizzle View Post
    Because they are not official.

    Take the time and review ComptrBob's recent posts.

    No even half-way knowledgeable bettor would trust Pregame's own record keeping.

    Oh, and the official results will include past-posted, non-WA, and prop, quarter, and half carnival bets.

    You have no clue about anything related to sportsbetting.
    Follow the rest at:
    http://www.roughingthepunter.com/sho...9449#post59449

  26. #621
    EOG Dedicated Heim's Avatar
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    lol @ Andy....It amazes me that an educated guy like him completely ignores past (losing) results
    compiled by Dreamer, Czech and ComptrBob. And really believes B2B Hilton's mean something.

  27. #622

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    to andy fezzik;

    steve fezzik doesn't have THE BALLS to post his picks in the nfl after the game kicks off.

    DOES NOT HAVE THE BALLS !!!

    somebody send this post over to rtp.

  28. #623

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    I have copied your post to RTP.

  29. #624

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by boston massacre View Post
    to andy fezzik;

    steve fezzik doesn't have THE BALLS to post his picks in the nfl after the game kicks off.

    DOES NOT HAVE THE BALLS !!!

    somebody send this post over to rtp.
    Come on in, the water's fine.
    Webmaster not so extraordinaire of www.RoughingThePunter.com

  30. #625
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    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    lol @ Andy....It amazes me that an educated guy like him completely ignores past (losing) results
    compiled by Dreamer, Czech and ComptrBob. And really believes B2B Hilton's mean something.
    Basic tout behavior

  31. #626

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Jon in Oakland View Post
    Come on in, the water's fine.
    don't doubt the water is fine.

    plenty of veterans here at EOG.

  32. #627

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    This is going to be a great NFL season watching pregame try to spin the downs and the downs and the downs of Fezzik's NFL selections and his "select" college football plays.

  33. #628

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by Sportsrmylife View Post
    This is going to be a great NFL season watching pregame try to spin the downs and the downs and the downs of Fezzik's NFL selections and his "select" college football plays.
    it's also going to be great exposing him as a fraud and con artist this season as he tries to hoodwink the unsuspecting ?

  34. #629

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    It'll be the same like every other year. He'll start off hot... then go damn cold. Then we'll hear the "I've had a couple of bad years" line. That one always makes me chuckle.

  35. #630

    Default Re: Wow fezzik, what a total pile of shit you are

    Quote Originally Posted by KingRevolver View Post
    It'll be the same like every other year. He'll start off hot... then go damn cold. Then we'll hear the "I've had a couple of bad years" line. That one always makes me chuckle.
    this should be year 3 or 4 using the "bad years line".

    there's no problem taking the mask off him. slips off easy.

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