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    Default Trump is headed for a win ...

    from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/


    And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.
    The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

    1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
    2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
    3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
    4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
    5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
    6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
    7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
    8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
    9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
    10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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    Default Re: Trump is headed for a win ...rest of story

    Wapo is a semi-free site. Only a few free views per month. In case you can'y get on, here it is



    The Washington Post







    The Fix
    Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly


    By Peter W. Stevenson September 23 at 8:00 AM
    Who will win the 2016 presidential election? This professor has predicted correctly for 32 years Play Video4:11
    Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, created his "13 Keys to the White House" more than 30 years ago—and he's ready to predict who will win in 2016. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)
    Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.


    When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.




    And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.


    The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:


    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
    Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
    Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
    Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
    Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.


    THE FIX: Can you tell me about the keys, and how you use them to evaluate the election from the point where — I assume it's very murky a year or two out, and they start to crystallize over the course of the election.


    LICHTMAN: "The Keys to the White House" is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.


    The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.


    So people who hear just the surface-level argument there might say, well, President Obama has a 58 percent approval rating, doesn't that mean the Democrats are a shoo-in? Why is that wrong?


    It absolutely does not mean the Democrats are a shoo-in. First of all, one of my keys is whether or not the sitting president is running for reelection, and right away, they are down that key. Another one of my keys is whether or not the candidate of the White House party is, like Obama was in 2008, charismatic. Hillary Clinton doesn't fit the bill.




    The keys have nothing to do with presidential approval polls or horse-race polls, with one exception, and that is to assess the possibility of a significant third-party campaign.


    What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election?


    Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


    We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.


    We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November?


    Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.


    Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.




    Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.


    Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act.


    Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.


    And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.


    One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.


    So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote.


    Do you think the fact that Trump is not a traditional Republican — certainly not an establishment Republican, from a rhetorical or policy perspective — contributes to that uncertainty over where he fits in with the standard methodology for evaluating the Keys?


    I think the fact that he's a bit of a maverick, and nobody knows where he stands on policy, because he's constantly shifting. I defy anyone to say what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from entering the United States, that's certainly a factor. But it's more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his bankruptcies, the charitable foundation, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he's said in this campaign, that could make him a precedent-shattering candidate.


    It's interesting, I don't use the polls, as I've just explained, but the polls have very recently tightened. Clinton is less ahead than she was before, but it's not because Trump is rising, it's because Clinton is falling. He's still around 39 percent in the polls. You can't win if you can't crack 40 percent.


    As people realize the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only choice is between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson supporters may move away from Johnson and toward Clinton, particularly those millennials. And, you know, I've seen this movie before. My first vote was in 1968, when I was the equivalent of a millennial, and lots of my friends, very liberal, wouldn't vote for Hubert Humphrey because he was part of the Democratic establishment, and guess what? They elected Richard Nixon.


    And, of course, as I have said for over 30 years, predictions are not endorsements. My prediction is based off a scientific system. It does not necessarily represent, in any way, shape or form, an Allan Lichtman or American University endorsement of any candidate. And of course, as a successful forecaster, I've predicted in almost equal measure both Republican and Democratic victories.


    What Donald Trump is doing on the campaign trail
    View Photos The GOP presidential nominee is out on the trail ahead of the general election in November.


    Peter Stevenson is the video editor for The Fix, where he covers national politics. Follow @PeterWStevenson
    It's less than two months till Election Day. Catch up with the race.
    Clinton vs. Trump
    National polling data shows the two candidates in a close race, with Clinton's lead narrowing over recent weeks.





    Battleground state polling
    Florida
    Trump leads Clinton by less than one percentage point in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average.


    Ohio
    Trump has a two-point lead in the polling average. In a four-way matchup that includes both third-party nominees, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party, Trump leads Clinton 42.5 percent to 40.8 percent.


    Nevada and North Carolina
    Trump leads by 2 points in Nevada and North Carolina. Hillary Clinton and her allies have outspent Trump and groups supporting him 7 to 1 on television ads in North Carolina.


    Colorado
    The polling average shows Clinton's lead here down to 2.5 points, down from double digits last month.


    As Trump rises in battleground states, Clinton moves to block his path to 270
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    Here is what you need to know about presidential debates


    The fall 2016 debate schedule
    Mon., September 26
    Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump


    Tues., October 4
    Vice presidential debate between Sen. Tim Kaine and Gov. Mike Pence


    Sun., October 9
    Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump


    Wed., October 19
    Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Trump is headed for a win ...

    The key to everything is to get in the door;,but they're boxed in then anyway:
    conraddobler Sep 23, 2016 12:00 PM

    The first vetting process required for any truly viable candidate to make it through the howitzer like defensive systems of the current control grid is the one and only requirement that career and possibly life ending dirt be present on them.
    I have no doubt BOTH fit that bill and that's why they are where they are because they are controllable.
    You simply won't get through if that's not the case.
    I expect Trump to be the next president and maybe he does some good where he can and maybe he's just a puppet that will pull the right lever when he's told to.
    Just don't get your hopes up true freedom does not lie in who you elect in a phony process out of the possible bought off and corrupted alternatives.
    It lies in the people refusing to buy the bullshit anymore from ANYONE no matter who they are.
    The rule of law is what is important.
    To the extent Trump helps improve this I support him but you have to assume your own candidate is compromised, to assume otherwise is foolish and naive.

    Comment from:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ng-brea?page=3

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    Default Re: Trump is headed for a win ...

    from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9414327

    N Engl J Med. 1998 Jan 1;338(1):20-4.
    A population-based study of seizures after traumatic brain injuries.

    Annegers JF1, Hauser WA, Coan SP, Rocca WA.
    Author information


    Abstract

    BACKGROUND:

    The risk of seizures is increased after traumatic brain injury, but the extent and duration of the increase in risk are unknown. The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of brain injuries that are associated with the development of seizures.
    METHODS:

    We identified 4541 children and adults with traumatic brain injury (characterized by loss of consciousness, post-traumatic amnesia, or skull fracture) in Olmsted County, Minnesota, during the period from 1935 through 1984. Injuries were classified as mild (loss of consciousness or amnesia lasting less than 30 minutes), moderate (loss of consciousness for 30 minutes to 24 hours or a skull fracture), or severe (loss of consciousness or amnesia for more than 24 hours, subdural hematoma, or brain contusion). We compared the incidence of new unprovoked seizures in this cohort with population rates, using standardized incidence ratios and Cox proportional-hazards analysis.
    RESULTS:

    The overall standardized incidence ratio was 3.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.5 to 3.8). The standardized incidence ratio was 1.5 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.0 to 2.2) after mild injuries but with no increase over the expected number after five years, 2.9 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.9 to 4.1) after moderate injuries, and 17.0 (95 percent confidence interval, 12.3 to 23.6) after severe injuries. In the multivariate analysis, significant risk factors for later seizures were brain contusion with subdural hematoma, skull fracture, loss of consciousness or amnesia for more than one day, and an age of 65 years or older.
    CONCLUSIONS:

    The increased risk of seizures after traumatic brain injury varies greatly according to the severity of the injury and the time since the injury.


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