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  1. #36

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Waz View Post
    You and several others in this forum could use a lesson in sample sizes. Two games means virtually nothing, and it is not predictive in any way going forward. They scored 8 runs in Game 1, which was just a few days ago and people have already forgotten. They faced two of the best pitchers in baseball and got shut down, not very surprising at all.
    A rational post. How dare you bring sanity into this thread.

  2. #37

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    How can you say two games mean virtually nothing in a seven games series?

    no one is saying it's predictive. It clearly means quite a lot actually, given that their implied odds of winning went from 67% to 39%. Seems like that "small sample of two games" had quite the impact and meant a lot more than nothing.
    tripp blows

  3. #38

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    Well this is a bleak outlook if you're a Cubs fan, because you're getting them again.
    First off, if the Cubs lose tonight, at 3-1 it will be bleak. If they win, its 2-2 and not bleak. Yes, Kershaw will be tough to beat. But I don't believe Rich Hill is unbeatable. Last night was his first career start against the Cubs. David Ross had a few ABs against him, but first time a pitcher is facing a team, assuming he has some talent, advantage pitcher. The second time facing a team is tougher, and that gets magnified when the opponent gets to face that pitcher again in 5 or 6 days. Cub fans know all about Hill. He basically threw almost no major league innings after 2007 so both leagues aren't familiar with him. 4 starts for the Red Sox, a half season with the A's, he was very good first time around the league. If someone gives him big money for 2-3 years, they will regret it. By the second half of 2017, the league will be onto his dog and pony show.

  4. #39

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Waz View Post
    Not singling you out as this was in response to everyone in this thread, if you read from the top down about "why aren't the Cubs hitting" and "did they just beat up on bad teams all season." But your comment about their chances being bleak based on what happened in those two games is also short-sighted. It's just two games. If the Cubs had roughed up both of those pitchers for 5 runs, I'm guessing you wouldn't have made that comment. But bottom line, the current series odds imply the Cubs have nearly a 40% chance to win this series. Maybe it's different in horse racing, but I don't consider a 40% chance to be "bleak". I think your comment is based on your observation of those two games, instead of analyzing the "complete" picture.
    Well of course I wouldn't have made that comment, because the comment of "They faced 2 of the best pitchers and got shut down" to which I replied would never have been made.

    Not in the best moods this morning, probably a bad day to be by the keyboard. But once again, I'm not opining about either team's chances, I'm addressing the comments and using deductive reasoning to extrapolate what appears a bleak scenario based on YOUR statement and the statement of the post I addressed above. Your statement (and his) is that it wasn't surprising, somewhat expected they were shut down by Kershaw and Hill...........well, that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room if you know you'll be facing both of those pitchers again this series and you're in a coin-flip game today. I have no idea why you think my response(s) is my opinion on what happened in those 2 games when all I was doing was projecting Your opinion and that of the Valuist.

    And just to end this silliness, I have a rather extensive background in sports wagering. I'm aware of the chances the market gives the Cubs.
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  5. #40

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    Well of course I wouldn't have made that comment, because the comment of "They faced 2 of the best pitchers and got shut down" to which I replied would never have been made.

    Not in the best moods this morning, probably a bad day to be by the keyboard. But once again, I'm not opining about either team's chances, I'm addressing the comments and using deductive reasoning to extrapolate what appears a bleak scenario based on YOUR statement and the statement of the post I addressed above. Your statement (and his) is that it wasn't surprising, somewhat expected they were shut down by Kershaw and Hill...........well, that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room if you know you'll be facing both of those pitchers again this series and you're in a coin-flip game today. I have no idea why you think my response(s) is my opinion on what happened in those 2 games when all I was doing was projecting Your opinion and that of the Valuist.

    And just to end this silliness, I have a rather extensive background in sports wagering. I'm aware of the chances the market gives the Cubs.
    You sort of lost me in your response, but for the record, do you stand behind your comment that the Cubs chances in this series are "bleak", even though they have a 40% implied probability of winning it? I still think you're basing your original comment on only the last two games results. But if you really believe 40% equals bleak, then I will never be able to convince you of anything.

  6. #41

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Waz View Post
    You sort of lost me in your response, but for the record, do you stand behind your comment that the Cubs chances in this series are "bleak", even though they have a 40% implied probability of winning it? I still think you're basing your original comment on only the last two games results. But if you really believe 40% equals bleak, then I will never be able to convince you of anything.
    I did lose you if you're asking these questions, because my "bleak" comment was extrapolated by Valuist's and your opinion, not mine. I'll try one more time:

    Valuist said:

    So who's shut down the Cubs the past 2 games? Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenley Jansen. Who's the best pitcher in MLB? It's Kershaw. Other than the Cardinals in the post season, Kershaw has made everyone look bad. Is Jansen the top closer? Probably not, but clearly top 5. What did Rich Hill do this year? A 2.12 ERA and the league batted .195 against him. Not hitting in those two games can't be a complete shock.


    I said:
    Well this is a bleak outlook if you're a Cubs fan, because you're getting them again.
    If you say the Cub's getting shut down isn't surprising because it was Kershaw and Hill, then it's common sense to think they are in real trouble here because the 2 pitchers you weren't surprised shut them down will be facing them again in this series.

    If Valuist or you would have said: Kershaw and Hill brought their "A" games and stifled the Cubs bats, you're not projecting as much doom for the Cubs.

    I actually believe the Cubs are a bit undervalued right now (this is the 1st opinion I've given on the Cubs chances this entire conversation).
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  7. #42

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Baseball is cyclical and runs in streaks. The Cubs bats have gone cold at the worst time and now they're starting to press. I said a few months ago that Cubs fans should worry because ever since the wild card round was put in play rarely has the best team won the World Series. Maddon better figure out a way to loosen the pressure and lighten the mood with his guys or this will end quickly for them.

  8. #43

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    I can only imagine the panic inside the dugout if the Cubs get down by a couple of runs early.

    Team's bats going cold (all at once) at the worst possible time.

    The Tigers' 2006 and 2012 WS teams come to mind.

  9. #44

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    I did lose you if you're asking these questions, because my "bleak" comment was extrapolated by Valuist's and your opinion, not mine. I'll try one more time:

    Valuist said:



    I said:


    If you say the Cub's getting shut down isn't surprising because it was Kershaw and Hill, then it's common sense to think they are in real trouble here because the 2 pitchers you weren't surprised shut them down will be facing them again in this series.

    If Valuist or you would have said: Kershaw and Hill brought their "A" games and stifled the Cubs bats, you're not projecting as much doom for the Cubs.

    I actually believe the Cubs are a bit undervalued right now (this is the 1st opinion I've given on the Cubs chances this entire conversation).
    Where your logic loses me is when you extrapolate our comments that Kershaw and Hill dominating is not surprising, and somehow interpret that as us saying that they will do that again. Not surprising doesn't mean that's what I expected to happen. Nobody in their right mind would expect two pitchers to throw shutouts in back-to-back games, but at the same time it doesn't surprise me that it happened.

  10. #45

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Two games means virtually nothing, and it is not predictive in any way going forward.
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say the reason they didn't hit in those 2 games is because Kershaw and Hill are 2 of the best pitchers in baseball, and knowing they will be facing each of them again, say the reason they didn't hit means nothing going forward.

    The market has reflected exactly what it means going forward.
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  11. #46

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    You can't have it both ways. You can't say the reason they didn't hit in those 2 games is because Kershaw and Hill are 2 of the best pitchers in baseball, and knowing they will be facing each of them again, say the reason they didn't hit means nothing going forward.

    The market has reflected exactly what it means going forward.
    What I am saying for the last time, is that what Kershaw and Hill did in the last two games should not impact anything going forward. Yes they dominated the Cubs, but it's two games and what they did is within the range of probabilities (not some kind of tail or black swan). My opinion on Kershaw, Hill or the Cubs hitting has not changed one bit based on what has happened in this series. The market may be overreacting a little, but that has nothing to do with my opinion. The fact that the Cubs didn't hit in those games and my opinion going forward are mutually exclusive. Thus, I'm not trying to have anything both ways.

  12. #47

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    And for full disclosure, I have a small bet on the Dodgers for Game 4 and an adjusted series bet on the Cubs. Based on my calculations, this is a +EV position overall when you consider the market's overreaction to the upcoming Kershaw and Hill starts (Dodgers getting too much credit).

  13. #48

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Waz View Post
    What I am saying for the last time, is that what Kershaw and Hill did in the last two games should not impact anything going forward. Yes they dominated the Cubs, but it's two games and what they did is within the range of probabilities (not some kind of tail or black swan). My opinion on Kershaw, Hill or the Cubs hitting has not changed one bit based on what has happened in this series. The market may be overreacting a little, but that has nothing to do with my opinion. The fact that the Cubs didn't hit in those games and my opinion going forward are mutually exclusive. Thus, I'm not trying to have anything both ways.
    I'm not sure how possible it is for me to explain our basic disagreement then without typing a novel. But there are situations where I increase a variable's reliability in smaller sample sizes over larger sample averages.

    And I apologize to you and Valuist if I wrongly projected the connotation or your comments.
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  14. #49

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2W2P2S View Post
    I'm not sure how possible it is for me to explain our basic disagreement then without typing a novel. But there are situations where I increase a variable's reliability in smaller sample sizes over larger sample averages.

    And I apologize to you and Valuist if I wrongly projected the connotation or your comments.
    No need to apologize, I enjoy a good banter back and forth once in a while - even if this one probably just wasted a half hour of our lives without much substance haha. And I do respect your opinion, and agree that there are instances where small samples can be predictive, I just don't believe that to be true in this particular instance.

  15. #50
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    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by rico1 View Post
    Rich Hill needs to start selling and marketing his urine.
    Amazing.....last summer he was pitching for $500 a week in some independent league on Long Island.

  16. #51

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    How can you say two games mean virtually nothing in a seven games series?

    no one is saying it's predictive. It clearly means quite a lot actually, given that their implied odds of winning went from 67% to 39%. Seems like that "small sample of two games" had quite the impact and meant a lot more than nothing.
    How about those cubbies tonight, themanEJ?

  17. #52

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    You mean the reds didn't make the playoffs?
    I'd just like to remind everyone that TimelyToLose thinks that the 7th in run differential 2005 White Sox were one of the best teams in modern baseball history.

    And no, I'm not kidding.

  18. #53

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    How can you say two games mean virtually nothing in a seven games series?

    no one is saying it's predictive. It clearly means quite a lot actually, given that their implied odds of winning went from 67% to 39%. Seems like that "small sample of two games" had quite the impact and meant a lot more than nothing.
    Here's another burial of this fat worthless piece of shit.

    The Cubs have outscored the Dodgers 18-13 in this series now (in the bottom of the 8th) and Timely thinks the Cubs are done and out of it and clearly being exposed.

  19. #54

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Baseball is baseball. So let's be honest. This could go either way and no one would be shocked. But here's what we know:

    The Cubs have outscored the Dodgers 18-13 in this series through 4 games, here going into the top of the 9th

    The Cubs had the league's 2nd best OPS against lefties in 2016. 2 of the 3 starters the Dodgers will pitch in 5-6-7 will be left handed.

    It will be Lester vs Maeda, Hendricks vs Kershaw, and Arrieta vs Hill. The Cubs will be moderate to heavy favorites in 2 of those 3 games, and the Dodgers will be slight favorites in the other.

    Rich Hill was shaky with his command at the friendly pitching grounds of Dodger stadium. Let's see how he would handle a game 7 at Wrigley if it got there.

    Hendricks posted a 1.32 ERA at Wrigley this year, where he'll take the ball next.

    I'm feeling pretty good as a Cubs fan. But hey, they're exposed, they're dead, it's over, they're toast, stick a fork in them, they'll never contend with the 7th in run differential 2005 powerhouse best in modern baseball history white sox that were around .500 out of the AL Central. NEVER!

  20. #55

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Around LA, numerous reported sightings of Dodger fans counting chickens. Mighty big beatdown tonight.

  21. #56

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    Around LA, numerous reported sightings of Dodger fans counting chickens. Mighty big beatdown tonight.
    Cubs hand Urias his first loss in Dodger stadium. Regular season or post season.

  22. #57

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Maeda a dumpster fire right now. Here's his numbers from his last 4 starts:

    13 2/3 innings
    21 hits allowed
    15 earned runs
    14 strikeouts
    8 walks
    9.88 ERA
    2.12 WHIP
    avg game score: 36

  23. #58

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    Maeda a dumpster fire right now. Here's his numbers from his last 4 starts:

    13 2/3 innings
    21 hits allowed
    15 earned runs
    14 strikeouts
    8 walks
    9.88 ERA
    2.12 WHIP
    avg game score: 36
    Throw the stats out the window.

    Bet the Dodgers tomorrow.

    Roberts will empty his bullpen and squeeze out a win.

  24. #59

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by El Chapo View Post
    Throw the stats out the window.

    Bet the Dodgers tomorrow.

    Roberts will empty his bullpen and squeeze out a win.
    There's only one guy worth a damn in that bullpen. And he only pitches when they are in front. Dodgers awful vs lefty pitchers. You can have em.

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Mr. Kelly, what do you think Timelytowin's effect on the average IQ of this forum is?

  26. #61

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    You mean the reds didn't make the playoffs?


    Now outscoring the Dodgers 26-15 in the series.... what a fraud.

  27. #62

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    And exactly why run differential during the regular season can be deceptive.

    We need a new category: run differential versus teams over .500.


    2 games erase 162 in some people's minds.

    That's how you identify dumbs.

  28. #63

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    You mean the reds didn't make the playoffs?


    What an embarrassing thread this has become for some posters. The fact that some people who gamble cash on sports don't understand that .275/.300 hitters don't just morph into .030 hitters in the playoffs and that those things even out (Russell and Rizzo both got hot) is truly sad.

    So so so humiliating. I'd be shocked if Timely showed his face on this forum anymore after this. How many burials can a guy take before it's just pointless for him?

  29. #64

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    And exactly why run differential during the regular season can be deceptive.

    We need a new category: run differential versus teams over .500.
    Oh John. You try. *pats head*

    This team is developing quite a resume.

    Took down the Giants 10 straight elimination game streak.

    Took down Bumgarner's domination streak.

    Handed Urias his first home loss ever.

    Took down Kershaw.

    First team to score 4 in the 9th in an elimination game to win.

    We'll see how much more history they can write, and what excuses or reasoning the haters will create to discredit them along the way.

  30. #65

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Amazing how one useless piece of shit could have people hate a team.

    Win or lose, ghosty ghost is a piece of shit.

  31. #66
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    I can see where TH would get confused. The Cubs beating of the Dodgers was reminiscent of how they beat the Reds this year.

  32. #67

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by TrailerParkBoys View Post
    Amazing how one useless piece of shit could have people hate a team.

    Win or lose, ghosty ghost is a piece of shit.
    Especially when he disappeared after games two and three and only surfaced again after game four....I guess after the Mets pitchers manhandled the Cubs last year, Javy needed a break.."
    Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....

  33. #68

    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Viejo Dinosaur View Post
    Especially when he disappeared after games two and three and only surfaced again after game four....I guess after the Mets pitchers manhandled the Cubs last year, Javy needed a break.."
    oh, I'm sorry, I didn't post on the forum in the time period when the 103 win cubs were declared a fluke and a fraud because they lost 2 games.

    Hell, Timely and John were all but declaring this series over and that run differential is meaningless. Because they seemed to genuinely expect that a player like Rizzo would hit .030 for the rest of the playoffs or that Russell would hit .030.

    I have the Cubs about 65% to win this series vs the Indians. Guess what that means? They're 35% to lose it. That's a pretty big percentage. It's baseball. Great teams can play like shit for 2 games, or 4. We saw it last year when the mediocre Mets beat up on the Cubbies.

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by BumgarnerWins View Post
    oh, I'm sorry, I didn't post on the forum in the time period when the 103 win cubs were declared a fluke and a fraud because they lost 2 games.

    Hell, Timely and John were all but declaring this series over and that run differential is meaningless. Because they seemed to genuinely expect that a player like Rizzo would hit .030 for the rest of the playoffs or that Russell would hit .030.

    I have the Cubs about 65% to win this series vs the Indians. Guess what that means? They're 35% to lose it. That's a pretty big percentage. It's baseball. Great teams can play like shit for 2 games, or 4. We saw it last year when the mediocre Mets beat up on the Cubbies.
    You have them 65%? Based on what? Is this part of the marginal gambling system?

  35. #70
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    Default Re: Did the Cubs just beat up a lot of bad pitching during the year?

    what is wrong with the Cubs????

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