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Thread: Milk's blog and musings 2017

  1. #36

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    you've learned the secret to success drink, being relentless in what you want in life....congtrats.........change your name to ....relentlessly drink your milk shake........bish

  2. #37

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Bish, I agree. Most people are on the hamster-wheel. Not interested.

  3. #38

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Solid blog, this man milk can write

    Great movie to cull your name from to boot

  4. #39

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Thanks for the compliments. Ill be on hiatus for awhile from writing starting Sunday.


    It was a Saturday night around 2 am and Im seated at table 3 and my best poker friend is on table 2. We see it all in slow motion just like every grinder does.

    It is packed, all 23 tables with lists. 8 people deep and it is May there are a few tourists at every table and of course the weekend warriors with their buffet tickets and sunglasses watching the big game while they wait for their 1/2 table to open. Then you hear it and you see everyone scurry. You hear the dealer yell it and then the news travels so quickly that even if you are in a hand that is very relevant you look around and spot what table they went to. You listen again just to be sure and again the dealer will cry out. "Badbeat Jackpot!" And someone just won 50-100k and you go back to trying to grind a black checkmark in your records book.

    I had just folded A9 off for like the 20th time that night. I hate Ace rag its such a tease, the squeeze of the ace is so nice followed by the oh fuck me feeling. I got the text from Rich who is up 2k in 6 hours while I nurse my $310 in profits and hope I can get home to watch the end of the NHL playoff games. Dude wouldn't that be nice? What would you do with that kind of dough?

    Every poker room has a jackpot or promotion of some kind. 99% of them are shit and they charge a buck a hand and it just guts the player just a wee bit faster without most rec players ever thinking twice about it.

    Fast forward to August 13th. I just had gotten done reviewing my big 12 rsw bets, projections and sending Dink and Marni week 1 lines when I sit down in a 8 seat. I am sweating a baseball game score on yahoo and folding 10-3, 7-3, q-4 and reviewing my number on Oklahoma st. when I hear raise, reraise, raise, reraise so fast that I look up and it is a super nit reraising as fast as a crazy asian (lei good guy) can put in chips. They are on the river and when I see the 6th raise go in I am completely immersed they both have 3k or so in front and we are playing 30/60 and Lee starts shaking his head like oh no and looks sad in a way. He gets up and says I just call and smiles ear to ear.
    He turns over 9-10spade spade and super nit turns over AK spade spade.
    I think omfg dude Im so sorry thats insane straight flush to a royal! Someone call him a ambulance, he just died!
    Dealer says it, bad beat, bad beat jackpot and she is tiny so someone else screams it and the floor runs over!

    It was the first time I ever had a big score in a casino. I play 30/60 40/80 50/100 every week, sometimes too many days in a row. Im feeding myself, paying the bills, feeding the dog, taking in a game and the lady out to dinner.
    the I dont play craps, I couldnt tell you how a slot machine even works. I have a hourly wage in mind and thats who I am. When they relay that a table share is $11,700 I panic a little. How much do I owe in taxes? Will I get audited? What do I tip?
    I play 8 hour sessions, sometimes much less. Needless to say this 11k is is quite the fucking raise to my hourly right then.

    Then football season begins 11 days later and well that was cool but back to work. Its not like 11k is going to let me retire and I worked 300 hours to ensure football season goes the same as every year... which it did and very much so didn't I'll write about this season soon.

    Fast forward to Jan. 9th I fly into Vegas to meet Voodoo for a first time and go over props for the national championship. I spent two weeks reading about Alabama and clemson and made numbers for every player, situation I could think of and it was a excellent experience and if you ever wonder as a handicapper if you are working hard enough? Go have lunch with Voodoo he will inspire you I am positive.
    I also went to LV to see Dink and meet his dog Hazel. Dink is my favorite person probably ever when it comes to gamblers. Sharp as a razor and perfectly cynical. We watch the game together and I win and we go eat but the next day while sweating hockey at Dinks house. Robbie stops by and Robbie is my favorite poker player ever.. period.

    Robbie is beyond nice, at the wsop last year I took a break to chat with dink and while doing so Robbie asks me what chance I give myself to win the main. I am not playing main, he looks dissapointed. He roots for everyone, Im not kidding. It is genuine and I like that.

    Robbie plays poker I think nightly or close to it. He plays Aces, Kings but limps queens in case someone has AK he can wait to see the flop. My next life I want to be Robbie the poker player my life would be a lot simpler. I would probably need 3 more jobs but the days of putting people on ranges, studying poker stove, going broke at 27 etc Id avoid all that. I'd head right into waiting He never gets it in the middle behind and is almost always wearing a smile. A grinder with a smile.. If it was a book it'd be fiction.

    So Robbie and I talk poker and I tell him about my table share at the bad beat. He gets excited just talking about it. What would you do if you had one? How would you let the other guy know not to fold?! We go over the scenario for 5 minutes, pretty sure driving Alan crazy as he tries to sweat games.
    I tell Robbie like I'd ever hit one in a 30/60 game not enough action but if I did I would have the loser.

    Dink and I watch hockey I count my losses for the night, we go and eat pizza with some friends of his. Next day I have lunch with Waz who is a genius and overly nice guy but also a cubs fan. 2 out of 3 ain't bad
    I head home the next day and start working, same as everyday.
    Take the girl out but otherwise its same old same old for the week. Hockey, a little mlb prep work, poker and alot of wondering when this current downswing will end.

    Tuesday the 15th
    I head up super late. Im not at all in a good mood as I make the drive up the canyon. I hate downswings and every single one of us know theyre inevetible but fuck me! Please stop with the overtime losers, nba steam please just one time be right.

    I say hi to Albert at the cage as I grab the 2k it takes to play in this shit show of a game on a tuesday. Half green, half red. Im on the list, sitting there reading forums, watching CNN and Fox news tell me Im doomed just in different tones on two seperate tvs.

    I get called to table 1 30/60 half kill and I am in my own head. 500, get the nickel, get the hell out of here. Your numbers are so far off just go home the second you get the nickel. If youve played a lot of poker you know what I am talking about.
    Its midnight, Im at +455 ive been there a hour and a half and the game opens up.
    Its me, another very solid pro and 7 vietnamese just gambling. Now Im making deals in my own head 3 am thats when Im leaving. Have to figure out what Im missing, I hate corsi. Lets take a look and track corsi..

    Its 2 AM and im up 1700. Good score, get home, get to work. Dont spend all morning here chasing when you were up 1700. Next down, Im leaving period this game is so good but its unstainable. Youre going to take a bad beat for 500 and then leave? Just leave at 230 be super polite to everyone as you rack up. Seat 1 is stuck 4k almost all of it to you, be respectful. All in my head, same as every other person in any game.

    230 AM up 2,455 text Lauressa tell her you won. She will be happy when she wakes up. Play one more orbit, its now short handed, dont break the game, dont be a dick. Play one orbit, fold hands and get going.

    At 2:51 am 5 handed. Im in the big blind
    Ktai who is super loose and gamble heavy raises the button and I look down at ace-9 unsuited. Its 5 handed this is probably a raise but Im playing for 9 minutes, needless to say I'm playing very cautious. Im up 2600 my biggest score of the new year.

    I call. The flop comes a beautiful A-9diamond-8-diamond
    I check raise and am immidiatley 3 bet. Fuck. Is my initial thought here goes 500 I knew this was going to happen as I call for deceit. Turn is a Ace! I have the nuts! Ok Ktai lets let you get crazy with your fd and straight draw type of hand I check and he checks back no waiting.. so weird...
    The river is a 8 and I lead beat, raise, I hollywood for like 15 seconds and raise, he raises. I think OMFG he checks back AK, AQ on the turn there obv crazy I have him coolered, I raise and am met with a black and 4 reds as soon as I raise. I say omg out loud I ran into quads are you fucking kidding me. I call and turn over my hand in semi shock.

    He screams yes, he cant control it, again yesssss!!! Im thinking wtf dude, thats excessive in my head. He is going crazy, I can only see him. Its kind of slow motion as all these hands are patting me on the back and he is trying to high five me. I swear it hadnt dawned on me yet, for 30 seconds I was frozen in the pain of a bad beat with $600 missing from my stacks. The dealer is yelling bad beat, Im thinking fucking A it is. I was leaving dude.

    All this time I think of Robbie and I talking about it just a week ago. Robbie if you ever read this. I'm sorry. I did nothing when it happened that I said I would. I swear I thought it was just another horrifying bad beat. Nonethe less I promised dinner next time I see you and Ill go into better detail then on the rest.

    It is 258 AM
    Who do I call? Who can I even text?
    Everyone of the guys at the table are calling family in other countries, some family members of Kthai are coming up he didnt have his ID. No one can get paid, the dealer cant leave the table until everyone signs tax info, gives their drivers license to be copied etc. They put in a demand for cash or check from the cage for you and you decide to take taxes out then or not.

    It took 3.5 hours for them to bring all the cash for a mini bad beat jackpot which is aces full of exactly 9s must be beaten.
    I dont play A9 especially from the BB.
    It has to be 5 handed. I have to be on a heater. I was supposed to leave 2 hours ago. Im leaving in 9 minutes, had the racks at my feet.
    Security walks me to my car. I try to tip them, they refuse. I tipped the dealers $700 and Albert $100 he deserves more probably he has been hearing bad beats for 7 years.

    I got home and I knew exactly what I was going to do with the money. My girl graduated college in Dec. Right during bowl season. Im a shit boyfriend during bowl season. She deserved better than what I got her. So yeah we leave Monday for New orleans. Then after that I head to La to play the Lapc mixed games. The month after that Bahamas.
    Im a bankroll nit. As most people like me are. For 3 months and 3 months only Im going to try not to be.
    God wouldnt that be nice to hit one of those? Sure seems like it... we shall see

    I write this blog because its therapeutic and gives me something to do at the gym on the bike or when Im on the bus or at a terribly slow table. Sometime soon we should probably talk football and sports in general. I started football research this Tuesday. Not because I wanted to or had to because that is just who I am.
    Take care, have a good week.

  5. #40

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Enjoy Nola Milk. I'm not a fan, but I may be an outlier there

  6. #41
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
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    Apr 15, 2008
    Aspen, Colorado, United States

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Always a great read.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  7. #42

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Just realized hand 1 of Lee and TJ bad beat. Lee had 89ss and TJ had AKss
    Board ran out 10s-js-qs

    My hand A9 ran into 88
    I have pics I was at least aware enough to take those lol. I posted them on twitter that night never took them down.
    The primary jackpot tonight I believe is 143k off to hopefully not take any beats but if so..

  8. #43

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    My favorite line in Drink's latest blog: Watching CNN and Fox News tell me I'm doomed, just in different tones, on two separate televisions.

  9. #44

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    You're saying that his 2-card Straight flush (bottom end) lost to 2-card Straight Flush (top end)? Wow, all-time cooler if that's the hand.

  10. #45
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 15, 2008
    Aspen, Colorado, United States

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyG View Post
    You're saying that his 2-card Straight flush (bottom end) lost to 2-card Straight Flush (top end)? Wow, all-time cooler if that's the hand.
    I wouldn't call winning the badbeat a cooler.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  11. #46

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    I wouldn't call winning the badbeat a cooler.

  12. #47

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Nice idea how u guys can be so immersed in poker and still handicap n bet sports daily. I imagine one would be much for successful focusing on one or the other...

  13. #48

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Hangover View Post
    Nice idea how u guys can be so immersed in poker and still handicap n bet sports daily. I imagine one would be much for successful focusing on one or the other...

    Have to be in same state of mind for both IMO. This might sound stupid but I'm sure some poker players here would agree, when I used to play a lot of poker when I would get home from a long session and start looking at the next days' lines I would see the games much more clearly for some reason. Just in that analytical, gambling state of mind I suppose.

  14. #49

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Hangover View Post
    Nice idea how u guys can be so immersed in poker and still handicap n bet sports daily. I imagine one would be much for successful focusing on one or the other...
    agree, I have yet to meet a poker player who is a good handicapper

  15. #50

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    I don't think you have to be just one. A good poker player or a good handicapper.
    I do think it's entirely possible to be both. I currently am far too tired to go into a lot if detail but I will say that i do not play poker during football season other than maybe a handful of times.
    I also keep completely seperate bankrolls and never cross either into the pool. That is essential and will allow you to be a bankroll nit and lower your variance. I will also state that if you go to a poker table tomorrow and in between hands that you do not play just think of 6 games. In 8 hours time you will have put around 5.5 hours of thought into 6 games, there arent many occupations or hobbies that give you that type of opportunity.

    It kills me to see people at mid stakes watch movies and play words with friends, etc in between hands. If they used all that time and bandwith to research whatever theyve ever wondered about.. they could basically do with the chips in front of them anything they wanted to make some solid investments in general.

    The higher stakes you play the more professional handicappers of sorts you will play with. When I played small stakes it was unheard of and I thought id have to choose one or the other. That being said I cant really even think of putting people on ranges, table selecting and playing mistake free when I have 128 teams to track along with injuries, weather, line movements and so much more.
    Baseball and hockey season I can do both fairly well as the workload some days allows not as much time.

  16. #51

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Mickey Appleman told me poker was a huge distraction for his baseball handicapping, and it would be his last wsop.

  17. #52

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Good stuff Drink
    Don't wake up in a roadside ditch

  18. #53

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Ok less tired now.
    Almost every professional DFS player is also a poker player. Assani Fisher, Thunder Keller, David Olson are 3 of the bigger Dfs winners in the last few years and all 3 can be found at a poker table daily whether its live or online.

    One of my best friends Devo still crushes 80/160 daily and finds enough time to absolutely destroy DFS and hike, fly fish and head to mexico when there is the WCOOP etc. He has a ROI of 13% in DFS and plays poker 4 days a week minimum I think.

    I think you have to have passion for something, you will excell. If you dont enjoy what you are doing, you are not going to have good results no matter what you choose to do in life.

    I love college football. I don't tire of it. I listen to podcasts every week of my life. I can turn on a game on espn classic and I am right back to where I was the first time I saw it. The fact that I can get paid to look over every coach, player and get to pay myself based on the work I do is basically my dream come true.

    I would work solely in college football 365 days a year if I didn't think that was completely a waste of time and would probably cause for serious biases to develop. I also think slowly working, maybe 15 hours a week you would have much better work, more detailed from jan-august. Setup a schedule and stick to it. Myself I overindulge, it hurts me every September.

    I have never wanted to do anything else other than play poker since my first winning session. College football found me but thats my been my only true diversion. The came hockey, baseball.
    I dont have any issue grinding bad games, arguing for better rake, dealing with people with shit attitudes and foul odors. I still get butterflies when I win a monster pot and still am demoralized and look forward to the challenge when the red ink hits the page for 3 sessions consecutive.
    I still read hand histories of all games I can find. I dislike tournaments but thats a preference and think NL hold em ruins people, not poker players but humans in general.

    I do burn out on hockey. I like the sport, love going to games. I think the market is the most fun to monitor (cbb people please understand I don't aim to offend just not well versed in your art) and has the sharpest handicappers.
    I have a serious issue with the way the sport is set up and think that other than totals you are in for a lot of crap shoots and makes the game unbearable for a punter long term. Teams playing for a OT followed by a skills competetion when you have real and at times big money on the line just sucks.

    I work 10 hours a day I think on average. I never have once thought of it as too much. Baseball is my favorite sport to bet, attend and watch but I have had losing seasons in mlb. I won 33 units last year and 27 the year prior but I dont find the work fun, challenging and the difference between a great day, week and season in baseball is usually deciced by inches.

    I know my edges in poker and football. Completely unsure of my edge in baseball. My work has always been the same, I have never been able to pinpoint my mistakes from the 2013 season where I lost 23.5 units and 2015 season when I won 26.5 units the work was parralel but I of course in time got better at timing my bets and avoided maybe a trap or two.

    Nonetheless I cherish the challenge, wake up excited as I was 11 years ago when I first began totally square and marvel when the upswings take place, feel the pain when things don't. That is a totally awesome way to make a ok living if you ask me.
    If I had to choose one poker or sports I would be a loser overall Im almost positive. They provide the perfect amount of distraction for me.

    Have a good week guys and goodluck on the big game for a lot of you, Eddie

  19. #54

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    "If I had to choose one (poker or sports) I would be a loser overall I'm almost positive. They provide the perfect amount of distraction for me."


    Fascinating thought from Drink.

    Thanks for sharing.

  20. #55

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    Mickey Appleman told me poker was a huge distraction for his baseball handicapping, and it would be his last wsop.
    chip Reese and the poker players had a couple good seasons in baseball...
    Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....

  21. #56

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Viejo Dinosaur View Post
    chip Reese and the poker players had a couple good seasons in baseball...
    wasn't reese was the backer tho, and not the handicapper?

  22. #57

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    most the dfs guys are using a bot service. someguys make a living off of buying a bot service and if asked to do their own handicapping know next to nothing

  23. #58

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Why can't we

    It was around late July 2009. There stood my 3 best gambling friends and well my only real gambling friends. We all had met online or in various card rooms in the past 4 or 5 years. We all liked to smoke ganja, go to indie shows at the Hi-dive or cervantes in between sessions.

    We all had one common denominator. We all lived a carefree life where poker and income derived from cards gave us the freedom that most others couldn't relate to. Then it happened.
    As with all friendships, relationships in life there will be obstacles that will test the foundation that seemed unbreakable only months prior.
    Ours turned out to be black friday.

    Some people remember where they were for the jfk assination, they remember every minute detail of 9/11.
    I was 2 tabling 15/30 horse heads up on ftp and took a lunch break to argue sheet costs with my girlfriend at the time. In the 15 minutes it took to explain I couldn't decipher 100 count and 10000 count my entire existence was altered.

    I was no longer good at anything was my very quick opinion. I had nothing to occupy my time. No skills, no education and hell I wasn't even cool enough to start a good alchohol infused break from reality. I would check every hour in my silent office for any updates, any new news. I listened to podcasts, I refreshed 2plus2 hourly.

    I wasn't unemployed. I was destitude mentally. A abyss of bad thoughts. I had 2 checks from ftp, 1 from stars and the nearest casino was 60 miles away and they ran games with a $100 limit plus the girlfriend was a blackjack dealer there and was not overly excited about the prospect of us working in the same place. I had exactly $7680 in my checking acount and was owed 23k roughly. There was zero gaurantee that Id be paid and zero timeline of when.

    From april 15th to June 1st is almost a completely black out, dark period of my life. Broke up with the lady, abandoned all responsibility and did sort of whatever I felt was right at the time. I danced all night, hiked, tried a hellucinigenic or two, played a lot of video games and woke up may 25th started packing my car and withdrewl all but $174 from checking account.

    I arrived at the Rio around 4 days later. I hadnt played a lot of live poker in the past 7 years and was very intimidated, nervous and probably for the first time since the beginning scared, a real fear. I played 10/20 o8 with people in the same position I was in and while it was clear I was a lot better than most there, 10/20 really isnt going to pay the bills when living out of a hooters hotel room and eating out 3 times a day.

    I was winning but not enough to justify me being there after 2 weeks I had just $670 more than I arrived with or about $10 a hr after expenses which were minimal. I ran into my first friend I hadnt spoken to since April 10 days in and we ate and spoke like it had been years and we had been through alot more than we really had. Scott was a enginner/web designer who had put in 1000 resumes on monster but a resume with no experience in 10 years. We promised to get together every Tuesday like old times. He went back to his satelitte seats and I went back to the grind.

    Cory taps me on the shoulder and says "dude there is a list if you arent gonna play any hands, you nit!" He was just the face you need to see when youre down. Fat, always smiling, super smart, always in control and normally high as a kite.
    He was the most nonchalant out of work guy ever. He was excited, relieved.. the opposite of me. He was a 100/200 player online and had invested some money. He wanted to do dfs or something similar and played some NL tourneys but was there to wave a final goodbye to poker.

    After 3 weeks of playing 20/40 o8 non stop it was clear that my life was becoming a treadmill. I was running really hard, fast and mostly in place.
    I left Las vegas for LA to see my father and give Commerce the proper chance to break me for a 2nd and final time.
    Although this time wouldn't be as much of a challenge as my bankroll was at a all time low 6125.

    I called my house sitter daily, checked the poker news website more than anyone should have at that time.
    Commerce had changed. The changes weren't subtle. The days of 5 tables of 40/80 o8 games and triple draw games were gone. There wasnt even a regular 20/40 game other than hold em any day of the week. My very first night I am there I lost 1k playing perfect limit hold em. The curse of commerce was alive and well.
    The next night I can't even look at the table they all disgust me. Never folding, never winning, asking for washes and setups every single hand while I wait for hands that will be far superior and lose. On my way to go check on my car in valet (I had a window that suddenly wouldn't roll all the way up, perfect timing huh) I see the craziest action at a o8 table I had ever seen. 9 handed to the flop, capped on flop, capped on turn and 3 bet on the river.
    It became very obvious no one had a clue what they were doing, they were not gambling.. gambling is a risk you have to acknowledge, these men and women weren't conscious.

    I had to get into that game! It was a 4/8 game.. oh fuck me! It will take me 2 weeks to make what I am down for the trip I thought. The hell with it, I don't have much else going on. On a Wednesday night I made more in a 4/8 game than any 20/40 session yet. In the next 3 months I learned what it was like to have a edge and a sizeable one. Tilt was the only way you could lose and at $160 a hand being the largest loss I could suffer, tilt was far from a concern once I began to see the light.

    3 months later I am sitting in my living room with the same 3 guys. No one believes I made enough in 4/8 to have a bankroll again but I do and did. One day we start talking about Billy Walters and the computer group. Mike says I can make any algorithm work but he got a gig at toys r us, Im not even kidding. Guy went from being one of the most feared stud 8 players on earth to toyz r "fucking" us.
    Cory says well I know alot about Texas and Oklahoma my dad makes us go every single year to that game. I like to read alot obv as I point at my bookshelves. I still have every bookie in towns number from the social clubs.

    We were reminded by the always cynical and to this day major downer Scott only 1% win and we don't know how to even know if a line is bad etc. We all agree, probably a bad idea.

    At 2 AM my phone is ringing and ringing. I answer hoping it is my ex and we are going to further reconcile. No such luck, it is Scott. He says, "why not us? Why the fuck not?!" We have small but bankrolls, experience in variance, we have been through all of this before only x10.

    3 days later in my living room we go iver the 4 books, 5k each and assign 2 conferences each. We are not messing around with the small schools, they are fixed. It is one week before the season begins.
    I am assigned mountain west and the big 10 back then.
    I ask what do we need to know about coaches? 2plus2 sports gambling they talk about coaches a ton. Ill look into those first. I am giddy.

    This week eog we will go over coaches.
    New schools in fbs
    Coastal carolina and uab
    16 new head coaches and assistants.
    Ill go over all 18 and will love every minute of it.
    See you Monday where we will do 2 or 3.
    Btw I like the indians more than my own red sox in the AL.

  24. #59

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Can't wait to read about forays into sports wagering, always find it fascinating the approaches handicappers take. As always very good read and thanks for this.

  25. #60

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Thanks for your thoughts Eddie...always a good read....
    Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....

  26. #61

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Viejo Dinosaur View Post
    Thanks for your thoughts Eddie...always a good read....
    +1, thanks Eddie.

  27. #62

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    These writeups are really good. 2 reasons:

    1) Sports msg-boards are largely clowning. This guy is trying to win.

    2) The ups-and-down give it a real-dirt sense of truth. Who wants to hear about some guy who "went 81-0"? Hearing a report on the process is great stuff.

  28. #63

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    If we view Drink as a forum-resource, I'd have one poker question:

    * What area(s) do players make the most errors? And how do u exploit said errors?

  29. #64

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyG View Post
    If we view Drink as a forum-resource, I'd have one poker question:

    * What area(s) do players make the most errors? And how do u exploit said errors?
    Not feeling well but will answer this quickly.
    Hope to see you this wsop again this year Chucky.
    Poker players all have a dent in their game. Some don't table select, some play above their bankroll or take too many shots, some tip far too much, some play when nothing else in life is right, most don't understand variance and can't accept losing but the overall move that bad or amateur players always fall victim to..

    They play too long. That is really IT imo. How long can you play your A game for? Im talking distraction free, fully focused, really in tune with every player at the table.
    I can play my A+ game on a great day 5 hours, my average day Im a B game player and I can cruise control on B for 8 solid hours.
    Now lets say I go play from 5pm-11pm and have 6 hockey bets, a sick dog, a girlfriend who texts links in a sweet way to youtube videos.. what level am I playing? Maybe a C now lets add a bad beat, a slow dealer, a player who asks for 2 washes a down and Im down to a D. Leave right?! Well thats what I do. Im 38 years old, I have no problem just leaving, my pain tolerance is low nowadays.

    How do I exploit people who play long losing sessions? I play longer when Im up and quit earlier when I am down. I vary my start times to midnight weekdays and play until 7 am. No need to table select at 3 am on a tuesday morning there usually isn't anyone up for the session.
    Im also able to tell you all those above flaws of bad play, behavior because I am pretty sure I had all the aflictions listed at one point or another. Still have a few will keep to myself.. all one long learning process about ourselves.

  30. #65

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    They play too long.

    Drink, that's a great comment. I've made the same comment to friends. Whatever form of gaming you're playing, clear thinking diminishes at end of a session. And you should be aware of your focus fading.

  31. #66

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Talk to her

    It is the week of Valentine's day. A holiday loathed by men universally. A spoof of a holiday made up by department stores to get men and women to part with their money.

    As gamblers we are usually shunned by society whether you want to admit that to yourself is completely up to you.
    Finding happiness in one's self is the ultimate battle. I have met maybe a handful of people in my life out of the thousand or so who have attempted to play games for a living who were at a level of happiness I would wish to see myself at some point in life.

    Dating can be ridiculous when your happiness is balanced by a 19 year old's decision making or a umpire who calls a strike 4 inches below the knee later in games.
    Relationships are often short lived. The romance of the man who lives on the edge and doesn't live a 9-5 life wears off rather quickly when he can't do anything on Saturdays and is too distraught on Sunday to talk on Sunday.

    However it can be done and you can successfully fall in love. You can find someone, they can find you and from there it is work. Just like anything else you have to be honest with yourself and most of all the person you are seeking to court.

    Honesty is pretty brutal at times. Very hard to say out loud to someone you are looking to impress, "I suck, I haven't had a winning week in 3 and all the time I don't spend with you, Im working my ass off to lose less money."

    However if you start off with no qualms about your reality then you might fare much better. Don't tell a girl, I go to classes and play some online poker when in reality that means you do yoga on Tuesday and Thursday. NA class on wednesday and friday and play 80 HOURS a week on your laptop playing on a vpin every tournament you can find.

    Be realistic in your approach. Don't go tout trying to get as far as the lie will allow the customer to go. I am so glad you decided to meet me however I must admit I am super busy these days.
    I bet sports and have never lost, well once but it was a rigged game and the sportsbooks called me to apologize.

    If you gamble for a living you're probably going to drive a car that says so and dress like you don't leave the house all that much. She will know.

    So do this. Stop trying to be who you aren't. Don't sugar coat anything. Don't say I am investments, I work for someone who bets. Put it right on front street. If she doesn't like it you will know. It is completely up to you if you choose to admit it. She might sleep with you, she might see you everyday of the week but if you haven't met any of her friends or she lies to people what you do.. don't neglect what is going on there. You will know.

    Loneliess is better than torture my friends. If you are with someone who despises what you do for money.. GET lonely. Hang with your friends, join groups of people, go outside see the world. Don't play games of unhappiness. Smile some.

    However if you do find someone who doesn't mind what you do and is intrigued, thinks it is fun and is there for the horrible and the celebrations of victory alike. Embrace that.
    Listen to her workdays, listen to what she wants to talk about. Include her in your work if she shows interest.
    I sweat alone, always have. Saturdays are my day. I watch 4 tvs in horror, glee, morbid curiosity and don't like the company of others but I was lucky enough to find a sweat partner who watched 20 miles away and send the occasional good job or I am sorry. That can be nice, embrace that.

    Show mutual interest in their interests. If they love music ask about what they are listening to that week and can you hear it. My current girlfriend quizzes me on coaches. She looks up wikipedia at work and when we have dinner once or twice a week or she spends the night.. out of nowhere.
    Who is Troy's head coach?
    At first it was wtf.. now it is a fun game where I am not nearly as talented as I thought I was with some backgrounds of coaches.
    It is Neil Brown btw and he is a genius and wont be at Troy for long at all.

    However one night not long ago while going over new head coaches. I explained I hate when a school goes from a coach who had decent success running a system he built from the ground up and suddenly he is fired and replaced by a coach with a completely opposite set of skills and system.

    This is the equivilent of her dumping me (sure to happen, batting above my AA status currently fellas) for a guy who knows nothing about sports and hates music and animals.
    It would take her twice as long to reprogram herself to find the qualities of the new guy (I hope) and in that time she might lose alot of interest. 19-22 year olds majoring in crimimal justice at a major university are not much different.

    Here are the 2 worst head coach hires of 2017 there are some close but on the stationary bike at gym top of head.. slam dunk awful.
    Houston- Major Applewhite
    I have never seen a worst resumee in my entire life. He got Mack Brown fired in his first year as OC his team dropped 50 points or so in offensive avgs.
    He went to alabama one year.. saban lost 4 games with the most unoriginal offense ever with a defense that had 6 nfl players. Rice he had just enough success to get to go to Houston where in one year took the #4 offense in the country and made them the #45 or so offense. He plain to say.. is awful at offense and has no experience in defense. He does have a top 5 DL to work with, lets hope he doesn't fix it.

    His high school texas buddies forced Houstons AD hand and made them hire a local guy. Recruiting alone! Oh major will be the best recruiter ever to come to houston! His recruiting class was a disaster! 70th or so in a major hub.
    Houston we have a problem.. its Major.

    Sean Elliot- Georgia St.
    If you want a school to take further and furthee steps back follow this blueprint.
    Take coach A who is a decent offensive mind have him in your 2nd year of being in the fbs lead you to your 1st bowl game behind a team with 17 senior starters. Have him go out the following season and get your best recruiting class ever, have him promise those freshman some playing time in retoolimg year 1 since there is no alternative.
    Have him coach the team who loves him dearly until week 10 and then fire him!
    Then go out and get a OL coach from s. Carolina who has never won anywhere and was a assistant for 20 years at app st never being trusted with even OC for that entire time and his only experience at the FBS level is a OL coach for Will Muschamp! Oh just give up now. His ceiling on offense if he is anything like the two coaches he has studied under is 21 points a game.

    Next week Ill go over great hires 2 at a time. Have a good holiday or Tuesday.
    Thanks, Milk

  32. #67

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    So Milk, if I understand, you're age is 38 and your girlfriend is approx 21 and in university?
    Did I get this right?

    If yes, congrats and well-played!
    If no, accept my apologies for the mistake.

  33. #68

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Lol no she is not 21. She is close to the same age as me. She is a accountant and went back to school for a additional bachelors. She is terrific but has horrible taste in men.

  34. #69

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    The Lessons That Cost Us The Most, We Learn The Most From

    Week 1 College Football 2010

    I have played a lot of poker, had a lot of big games and big bets no week will ever compare to week 1 of season one. The jitters, the totally ridiculous idea coming to friition.

    I went to a thrift store and put a couch downstairs along with 2 tvs so my team (lol if you can call us that) could sweat our bets. I never inspected the couch and it had a hole as big as a bowling ball right in the center.. some could have viewed that as a sign.

    All 4 of us had spent seemingly all week (at least 20 solid hours) studying all 20 of our teams and we had 5 wagers between the 4 of us. A nickel each and we shared the responsibility of each wager equally. In other words if Scott was awful at sports and had no work ethic didn't matter his loss was yours and vice versa. Out of all the moronic things we did year 1 this was actually genius. Added motivation, bouncing ideas off one another, studying together was tremendous, watching games abd sharing info during out of conference teams.

    We had this idea since we were all poker players to find at least one sharp that we knew online or in real life and ask him as much as possible. To at least attempt to learn as much as we could from someone outside of thd group. Every week we were planning on increasing our bet volume and size because we were obviously going to win!

    This too was also a decent idea except Cory picked a seriously smart man who told him we had no chance and to save his money. Air bet amongst one another and if a guy in the group shows that he can win at the end of the year buy him a pizza. Cory was out week 1 he wanted to see how we fared and he was rich at the time (shit just realized he is much more so nowadays, occupational hazard as a professional gambler.. regret) his money was still at risk but he didn't want to put his opinion on the line quite yet.

    No laughing allowed.
    So we devised this plan that we would have 1 sure winner from each conference, 2 bets per week each and if someone couldn't find a LOCK then he could pass his pick off to a guy who had another close to LOCK game. This would be a very bad idea in the coming weeks but week 1 it seemed so odd that all of us were really struggling to see the locks that these touts on TV and at 2p2 sports betting found so easy! So we let Cory listen to his adviser but only week 1 and Scott only had 1 sure thing Cuse which I didn't even know for sure stood for Syracuse, when I called in the bet. I said Sheepishly Cuse-13 & was met with what number and I said 13. He said hold on Ed 436 Syracuse-13 which I replied, "no I want to bet 500 not 436" because I was a big shot and while the man chuckled I was in that moment Billy "freaking" Walters.

    I would call 4 places and learned get the best number, well they all had the same numbers! So i naturally spread out our soon to be debt.

    My two bets, no clue who the first one was now but the second was not mine but the guys didn't know. I called in a favor to the only real sharp I knew.

    Before I had a phone full of decent handicappers, I had just one.
    Phil Mcgonahue. I didn't and still don't like Phil as a person. He is Irish and he has to tell you he is Irish. He wears Notre Dame clothing 365, wears a leprachaun chain and has his last name embroidered on the back of his fitted fighting irish hats. He also refers to the home country and has never been further away from North Denver than maybe Las Vegas for a weekend.

    Regardless Phil can beat the NFL. He is extremely sharp from being a book for a decade or so and he finds value and knows a lot about teasers which would come in handy in year 1. His brother not so sharp and owed me maybe a nickel from poker when I told Phil I would erase his brothers debt for some lessons in sports betting. Phil jumped at the chance as his brother and him are completely inseperatable.

    Phil would make me drive all the way from south denver to North Denver and then wait at a table in a bar in the barrio where he would arrive a minimum 20 minutes late and then for a hour just give me everything he could think of. He was a 20 year veteran and I was a single A prospect. He got off on feeling smart and while he helped me a ton I can say now he just liked to talk and watch me write mostly. I was the parrot, he was the trainer.

    He would explain very common stuff but back then there wasn't alot online, a few books but nothing overly +ev. He told me he thought college sports were 10x easier, watch every game I could, learn about the players and coaches inside out, don't play huge road favorites, make ny own numbers (lol what a jerk.. i couldn't tell you back then what home field advantage was. There were 2 teams one was better than the other and I prayed I could just pick which one would win) and bet bigger not smaller don't mess around if you are going to win.

    He did tell me 2 extremely useful things that year in around a half dozen meetings..
    1. Never owe money. I was betting credit with locals for the group. He said you owe Monday, you pay Monday. Some of these guys don't want you paying on Monday they want to charge you a point a week make you feel comfortable chasing losses. They want to raise you settling figure so you are always chasing. Dont chase and don't be late.
    Oweing is a cycle it gets you used to losing, you get tricked into thinking losing is normal and with that comes more losses.

    2. Don't ever make a bet you hate. Sounds simple right. Who the hell would even do that?! If you are reading this you have probably made hundreds of bets you hate. So as he explained at the time and my inner eyes rolled in are you kidding me fashion. Every bet you make there is a confidence factor. In your heart you know why you love this bet and in your mind, research, dreams whatever it all adds up to be a solid wager.
    Now there is this other wager. You like it meh, it sounds logical. Maybe you made the line -7 it opened 4 and is now -3.5 but you hate the QB, you can't stand the weather forecast for a mostly pass based D and you would rather fade this particular team than bet it but fuck me how many games in a week are going to be 3.5 to the bad. Injuries come out monday 2 OL both basically backups OUT says don best.. line moves to 3 you know thats a complete b.s. reaction.
    You bet it! I mean come on 4 points of value and sure enough the line starts creeping in your favor. Inside you hate this bet, its on your sheet next to all your outstanding bets. It closes -4.5 you love your position but inside you just hate it.

    Lots of bets I hate even if I win. Tv bets where you bet the game because if you don't, you won't watch it and therefore you won't learn anything. Steam bets where you grab it 7 hours before start and in that 7 hours youre completely upside down.. fun, fun.

    Bets where a key injury isn't so key and 1 minute in you're searching for any live bet that will get you off this just as the score goes so far against you that there's no turning back.
    Backing a coach and laying a number only to realize mid first quarter this dickhead to bet is too nice to run up a score. Those are more hated results than bets but could be avoided by about 5 minutes more of really analyzing things.

    However at the time most things were lost on me as almost like all other amateurs I had it all figured out for the most part anyway

    Phil had funny rules he never..
    Laid points on a team that lost a home game the week prior
    Never bet under in a snow game, too hard to tackle
    Always bet a back up qb as the line in inflated too much
    Bet against the winner of every monday night game
    Baseball betting
    He only bet 1 game a day. More than that is a waste of time
    Always use the biggest tv game of the week no exceptions as your 2nd leg of every 2 teamer.

    So there we are 7 years ago all 4 of us in silence holding our breath as we watch in complete fascination and horror every game we bet all day, all afternoon and night. We watched every game we could. We discuss teams and rankings, we talk constantly, we discuss nothing.. we know nothing.

    Week 1 I bet a game the guy who knew everything gave me and it won easily. Wouldn't you know that 6 seasons later they are still my most profitable team in the B10. They also made the best head coaching change of the offseason.

    It is not a sexy hire, it doesn't pay alot, it won't garner any media attention and they certainly won't play for a division or national title. It just makes so much sense and I know how to make money off of it. Thats the combination of a perfect coach for me. I don't want a household name, I certainly don't want a program with a lot of media and big name recruits. I want small, simple minded but good grass roots coaches who are great end game or halftime minds.

    That leads us to Jeff Brohm of Purdue.
    Brohm does what great coaches do. He teaches only what he knows and he gets the best out of the side of the ball he specializes in. Brohm is from a small town and program background. Drake, Wisconsin-whitewater type of stuff. Knows the area. What makes Brohm great is his ability to coach QBs.

    He turned a Mike White from Usf transfer and pick 6 specialist into a draft candidate in 2018 at wku in just one season. He has a qb in place in a Jr with a cannon by the name of David Blough and I expect decent things from Blough and his 4 returning Wrs. No OL thats usually disasterous but guess where Brohm got his start as a assistant. Head OL coach.
    Brohn inherits a terrible bend dont break defense but he did so at WKU too and he turned that from 105th under Petrino to respectively 73rd in his 2 seasons.
    He makes good assistants as well. I gave Purdue a A for the hire and moved their number up 1.5 the most of any coaching hire tied with just 1 other.

    Lsu- Ed Oregeron
    He too is not sexy as a hire. There are 3 things I love about him.
    1. This is his dream job. There is no fishing for a better job (here's looking at you Mora and Patterson) and he loves everything Lsu and the fan base shows it is 100% equal and while I hate the Sec and bet maybe 15 totals a yr there Lsu needs some feeling good type of stories.
    2. Oregeron is elite in one respect that only a handful of coaches can state.. he has coached both sides of the ball everywhere he has gone and he has held 2 different positions on each side of the ball coaching. This is rare, beyond rare but here are the few who hold this feat.
    Rhule, Saban, Pederson, Snyder, Mcilweny, Harbaugh and Liepold.
    He understands what every team is trying to do because he has tried to do it. I didn't think he would win much honestly until he made the best hire in all of college football..
    3. Matt Canada OC
    Pitt was the total market anomoly this year. There is always one. Stanford 13-0 to the under in Shaws 1st season, Hazel at Kent 12-1 to the under in 14 etc.
    Pittsburgh HC Narduzzi is no dummy. He was the most decorated DC in the nation. He went to Pitt and saw in year 1 he had no shot trying to D up against the clemson, unc, fsu's of the world. He had to immulate what these teams did so well. Narduzzi will stop the run but with a b10 background himself he had no experience against vertical spread offenses. Cant beat them join them and beat them at their own game.

    Canada to the rescue. He opened the offense, completely up used 2 all conference Ol and a rb coming back from cancer and crushed every record pitt ever held offesively.
    With LSU the defense is never going to be a problem up front. Oregeron basically said f the 10-0 losses they beat us going forward they'll do it vertically or not at all. How many qbs in the SEC who resemble the challenges narduzzi and canada will face that they saw in the ACC?
    Exceptional hire and I might actually watch a LSU game this season..

    Thanks, Milk

  35. #70

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    How does someone profit from poker playing 1/2 or 2/4 when everybody is calling?

    Where does someone start who has played 1000s of hands online, with friends at the casino?


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