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Thread: Milk's blog and musings 2017

  1. #526

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    Drink, Mich St flat off ND, Iowa, Mich last 3 wks?

    what did you make AZ-UCLA total?

    can they make the C. FLA # high enough? I see them scoring at least 50

    thanks, hope all is well
    I'd normally play against mich st but they play a team that plays directly into all their strengths and that team is very low currently on confidence. Minnesota is only good at run O and run D everything else they grade out poorly at. They are definitely worst than all 3 opponents they have played prior but its still home dog or pass for me in this spot. I wanted a better number and didn't get it so it's currently a pass for me.

    I made it as high as I could in my right mind and it still opened higher than that. I bet ucla tiny at +1.5 off the bye and the run D has improved since Stanford.
    No clue on UCF as mentioned earlier today I have no feel for them. Nothing about their play matched with any numbers I had or have moved to at this point. My money hasn't gone to them and if I were to bet them it'd be against all my work.
    What's interesting about ECU is that they aren't even playing fast on offense! There defense is so bad they can't stop anyone at a 50% td clip. What's amazing they aren't even the worst D in The nation.

  2. #527

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Drnk and All need all your help to break down the game

    Luv that there is a Wednesday CFB Game today

    101 / 102 South Alabama vs Troy (-14.5, -15, -16) Tot: 48.5 ,49

    South Alabama coming off of a bye

    Troy coming off bye and a Big Win over LSU ( Now they are over valued with the win??)

    Last year the game @South Alabama the score was Troy 28 South Alabama 21 the spread was +9.5 so South Alabama covered. Interesting that the total in LY Game was 49 and now total sits for this year is also 49.

    In LY's game Troy's J. Chunn Dominated with 23 rushes for 142 yds and 2 TDs

    Now this spread is -14.5, 15, 16 depending where you shop.

    Troy has 7 Turnovers Lost this year

    South Ala has 5 Turnovers Lost this Year

    So both teams do handle the ball pretty well.

    QB Rematch from LY

    Troy

    Brandon Silvers has a ratio of 2 TD / 2 INT / 64 %
    *Note* he did not have an interception in the LSU game

    South Alabama

    Dallas Davis has a ratio of 3 TD / 2 INT / 55.0 % completion


    Teams:

    3rd Down PCT

    Troy #43 - 3rd Down Percentage

    S. Alabama #128 - 3rd Down Percentage

    Close to Even on Sacks Allowed

    Red Zone Offense

    S. Alabama Tied #52 in Red Zone Scoring Offense

    Troy is Tied # 105 in Red Zone Scoring Offense

    Tackles for Loss Allowed

    #20 Troy Ranked Tackles for Loss Allowed
    *Note* Troy has a better running game with J. Chunn

    #89 S. Alabama Ranked Tackles for Loss Allowed
    Troy struggling to score but they are racking up alot of yards. Troy has yet to have a breakout big win. This could be it ? At least they are at home?


    S. Alabama that really cannot score but plays good defense to keep it close


    I also have my number on Troy -18 My total number is 52 - 53 Lean to OVER


    SVBettor Prediction Troy 35 S. Alabama 17



    What do you think drnk and all ???

  3. #528
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball Zealot View Post
    Thoughts on GT vs Miami? Tough spot for Miami now they have to prepare for a team and scheme that is hard to prepare for.
    Gabe, I know you posted this for Drink, and I won't pretend to know as much about coll football as him, I don't, but I thought I'd relate a couple thoughts. First off, the Canes are missing their top RB in Mark Walton, they do have a couple of capable backups, but there's a drop off. Ahmmon Richards is their best receiver and he'll probably play but he's dealing with a bad hammy, he's their main deep threat and will probably be limited. As far as the triple option, while it's tough to prepare for, the fact that Georgia plays GT every year means Richt has game planned for it many times before, and Miami played GT last year, so if any coach can get his defense ready for the option it would be Richt given how often he's seen it. Letdown spots are something I look for in sports, especially in college where emotions run high, and this is a pretty tough spot for Miami coming off the last second win last week. If I play this one I'll be on the dog, also lean to the under. GL with whatever wager you make.
    It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase

  4. #529

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Gabe, I know you posted this for Drink, and I won't pretend to know as much about coll football as him, I don't, but I thought I'd relate a couple thoughts. First off, the Canes are missing their top RB in Mark Walton, they do have a couple of capable backups, but there's a drop off. Ahmmon Richards is their best receiver and he'll probably play but he's dealing with a bad hammy, he's their main deep threat and will probably be limited. As far as the triple option, while it's tough to prepare for, the fact that Georgia plays GT every year means Richt has game planned for it many times before, and Miami played GT last year, so if any coach can get his defense ready for the option it would be Richt given how often he's seen it. Letdown spots are something I look for in sports, especially in college where emotions run high, and this is a pretty tough spot for Miami coming off the last second win last week. If I play this one I'll be on the dog, also lean to the under. GL with whatever wager you make.
    Market agreed. I played under 54 at open.
    Gabe i played ucla+1.5 small
    Oregon st +12
    Utah/usc 54un
    Osu/neb 56.5ov but suggest 1st hf over now that number has moved off of some key numbers. I think Illinois is the right side just no value for me. I also think Oregon might remain a dead offense with a still extremely young defense. Ive waited fot a number that will never get there and am trying to play a tad bit less volume. Goodluck in whatever you choose to play.
    I think the best total still on the board that hasnt moved as i expected is mich/ind un. That DL for indiana is just as nasty as mich and both coaches just love 2 yard runs on 1st down.
    Have a good one

  5. #530
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Drnkyourmlkshk View Post
    I'd normally play against mich st but they play a team that plays directly into all their strengths and that team is very low currently on confidence. Minnesota is only good at run O and run D everything else they grade out poorly at. They are definitely worst than all 3 opponents they have played prior but its still home dog or pass for me in this spot. I wanted a better number and didn't get it so it's currently a pass for me.

    I made it as high as I could in my right mind and it still opened higher than that. I bet ucla tiny at +1.5 off the bye and the run D has improved since Stanford.
    No clue on UCF as mentioned earlier today I have no feel for them. Nothing about their play matched with any numbers I had or have moved to at this point. My money hasn't gone to them and if I were to bet them it'd be against all my work.
    What's interesting about ECU is that they aren't even playing fast on offense! There defense is so bad they can't stop anyone at a 50% td clip. What's amazing they aren't even the worst D in The nation.


    Minnesota QB is horrible

  6. #531

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    wasn't it you, milk that said minny's coach Fleck was a fade this year ?.....i think mich. st. just woke up........mich. st. -4 is a 2X for me.

  7. #532

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by bishqqq View Post
    wasn't it you, milk that said minny's coach Fleck was a fade this year ?.....i think mich. st. just woke up........mich. st. -4 is a 2X for me.
    Yes. I was pretty bullish that his system was a bad fit in yr 1 and getting minny fans to buy into it would be a tough sell. I dont like that he ditched his roots and is now a semi conservative ball coach. Very sad to see. Hes not building anything currently might as well kept Kill or Claeys. Could be he just doesn't have the talent at qb/wr but looks pretty ugly to me.

  8. #533

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Fleck is doing a good job considering all the hood rat sexual assualters he inherited. I know some transfered but he should show them all the door

  9. #534

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Any takes on Wyoming game under the total?

  10. #535
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Drnkyourmlkshk View Post
    Yes. I was pretty bullish that his system was a bad fit in yr 1 and getting minny fans to buy into it would be a tough sell. I dont like that he ditched his roots and is now a semi conservative ball coach. Very sad to see. Hes not building anything currently might as well kept Kill or Claeys. Could be he just doesn't have the talent at qb/wr but looks pretty ugly to me.
    I agree with your last point, I don’t think he has the skill position players to run the system. It will be interesting to see how he recruits, knowing he’s only staying there 2 more years most likely.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  11. #536
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    I agree with your last point, I don’t think he has the skill position players to run the system. It will be interesting to see how he recruits, knowing he’s only staying there 2 more years most likely.
    He is no different than the long list of hot coaches from the MAC, SB or CUSA that come into the bigten to coach the shitty teams.

    He will end up back in the MAC at best

    Claeys went 9-3 and took them to a good bowl and gave Washington St. a beat down but we run this guy out of town
    The real women sport expert

  12. #537
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    He is no different than the long list of hot coaches from the MAC, SB or CUSA that come into the bigten to coach the shitty teams.

    He will end up back in the MAC at best

    Claeys went 9-3 and took them to a good bowl and gave Washington St. a beat down but we run this guy out of town
    I thought when he said only 2 more years he was talking about moving up in the coaching world not down. I like Fleck and think he's done a great job so far.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  13. #538
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    I thought when he said only 2 more years he was talking about moving up in the coaching world not down. I like Fleck and think he's done a great job so far.


    wins against MTSU (without their 2 best players), BUF and the worst power 5 team

    0-2 in the big ten and haven't even hit the hard part of the schedule yet

    no shot at even a shitty bowl game after a 9-4 season

    games are bore fest, no QB and defense sucks

    guy should be flat out fired
    The real women sport expert

  14. #539
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    He is no different than the long list of hot coaches from the MAC, SB or CUSA that come into the bigten to coach the shitty teams.

    He will end up back in the MAC at best

    Claeys went 9-3 and took them to a good bowl and gave Washington St. a beat down but we run this guy out of town
    I know you’re not a Fleck guy, but he won’t be moving backward. He’ll be rumored this year for bigger jobs unless Minn goes into a freefall.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  15. #540
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    I know you’re not a Fleck guy, but he won’t be moving backward. He’ll be rumored this year for bigger jobs unless Minn goes into a freefall.
    There is zero chance he will get any offers from the elite universities. Coaches that go 0-9 in the big ten should be grateful to even have a job.
    The real women sport expert

  16. #541

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Pissed off
    I rarely get upset. I deal with bullshit just like anyone else. Agents and books cutting me off, limiting me, line services lying about injuries, weather updates that arent accurate, slow pays bla bla bla. Im in no means wealthy. I make a good living doing something I love and that's always been enough for me personally.

    I sent a dm to a espn personality on twitter a few weeks ago and we chatted briefly about a few games no big deal. I was the one who approached him as I felt he was really missing something in his write up that was pertinent. I directed him to this very blog if he wanted to famialiarize himself with me and some of my work. That was that. I enjoy his podcast and think of it as highly entertaining listen while i do cardio.

    A month ago a tout service contacted me and asked if i would like to earn some extra money as I give out so many plays for free already. I declined and thanked them for their consideration. I laughed it off.

    If we are close friends or even someone I respect and have met I will always give my full card to you. 2 weeks ago while I was on cloud 9 and had won close to 20 units in September a agent for a small pph contacted me and asked if he could get my plays to bet elsewhere and he would give me a % of what he won. I again decline.

    I have 2 people who I trust who get down directly after me and they have similar roles already and I care about them. I decline and he calls back and offers me -105 across the board. Even if a game is -120 itll be graded at 105 at small limits but I cant pass that up but he then tells me he wont be able to get totals up until Wednesday. Thats not a big deal to some but a big deal to me. I decide why not give him a small shot.

    I know exactly who scewed me over as I knew this agent was betting very big and I threw 2 headfakes into the card hoping for a better number and both those games are one of the 7 big plays on a cheap tout board. Unethical maybe but I will headfake very occasionally to test a book.

    I wake up today and someone dm'd me a link to a unlocked tout service page and one by one all my plays suddenly appear with these shitty 20* lock and 5* lock bs.

    I then go to the gym still bothered and listen to a podcast. Please EOG welcome ESPN to our tiny little community! They are big fans of me and stealing my work.
    Best bet in the wild card slot is Akron +14
    2nd best bet indiana +7 and the under.
    Guess who played both of those? Oh lets get WVU -3 & vandy in their too. Hope they all win and you guys go back to winning at .400 clip. You wont have me for help ever again.

    So im not going to name names of jackasses against my better judgement I am going to give everyone every game I bet this week and sent to 5 people (dink, voodoo, chris, delgado and harvey) and from here on I will no longer post any plays directly in this blog.
    I will always answer every question directed at me about a game and if you wish to speak to me about a bet you like I will and always tell you if I think its good or not.

    They ruined that for us and me specifically. I will not have people make corporate dollars off of my work. Im saddened by all of this. The amount of time I put into each card is beyond a 40 hour work week. I have sacrificed relationships, funeral services, health, friendships bla bla bla to my love of the work I do. It is not to be exploited and made into a money tree for strangers I do not know or have any dealings with. I have not had a losing football season ever and I almost always think its due to my unwillingness to waver of who I trust and whos opinions matter to me. Every summer I bypass things I love to find hidden little gems. Its a tedious process. Im a hermit at times.

    I have always found great solice in what this place meant to me. I respect alot of people here. I will figure out a way for dinks charity or possibly one of my own to give you my best few plays a week if its important to enough people. Im sad and a little angry. I also would like if Matt gave out some west coast plays for the small community and anyone who wants to post their own plays here feel free.

    Ill post everything when I get home in a hour or so. There are quite a few plays.

    Thanks, Eddie
    You can pm me here or dm walls_edward on twitter.

  17. #542

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    I did play ull under 58.5 and 58 at open for tonight i made it 53 if you can find a 56 thats playable.

  18. #543

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Drnk... Sorry to hear about your troubles

    I like the movie pay it forward. We should always find a way to pay it forward and give back in principle.

    ---SVBettor

  19. #544
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    There is zero chance he will get any offers from the elite universities. Coaches that go 0-9 in the big ten should be grateful to even have a job.
    Funny he was 2-1 vs the Big 10 last year with a MAC roster.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  20. #545
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    Funny he was 2-1 vs the Big 10 last year with a MAC roster.
    I was talking about this year.

    0-2 already

    and in the 7 games left only will be favored at home against Illinois

    dogs in all the others
    The real women sport expert

  21. #546
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    I was talking about this year.

    0-2 already

    and in the 7 games left only will be favored at home against Illinois

    dogs in all the others
    minn has sucked for the better part of 50years. It’ll take 2 years min to get his players in.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  22. #547

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Clemson/cuse 55ov
    Akron+14
    Emu/army 47un market loser
    Temple-10 & -9.5*
    Uva/unc 55un
    Wvu-3
    Nc st/pitt 57un
    Michigan/indiana 48un
    Indiana+7 small
    Louisville-20 & 21
    Fsu-6.5 small
    Charlott/wku 48 small
    Utah st-3
    Oregon st +12 & 11.5 smaller
    Unlv/AF 67ov market loser small
    Utah/usc 54un
    Ucla+1.5
    Vandy +3.5
    Osu/neb 56.5ov small
    Byu/msu 46ov
    Baylor +26 small
    Unm +2.5
    Utsa/unt 57ov
    S.c/tenn 48un
    Nm st-6.5 -115
    Cin/usf 67 ov market loser
    Gt/mia 54un
    Also have a open parlay with toledo ML at -245ish

    Thats all of them and goodluck to all but the theifs and salesmen.

  23. #548
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    You'll look back at this week and laugh. Thanks for posting Drnk.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  24. #549

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    I missed ulm/gsu 57ov

  25. #550

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Drink, that's some bad shit. I hate that stuff.

  26. #551

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Thanks Drnk.... Pay it forward

    My Play is north texas +3 and ML

    ---SVBettor

  27. #552

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by svbettor View Post
    Thanks Drnk.... Pay it forward

    My Play is north texas +3 and ML

    ---SVBettor
    Ill root for that! Cant stay under if you cash it

  28. #553

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Thanks for sharing your card, Drink.

  29. #554

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Drink any concern about Tennessee qb situation spoiling your under? Guarantono came on in 2h last game and was highly touted out of jersey prep ranks

  30. #555

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Erie Pigskins View Post
    Drink any concern about Tennessee qb situation spoiling your under? Guarantono came on in 2h last game and was highly touted out of jersey prep ranks
    They lost 41-0 and he came in when it was 34-0 and has 16 yards passing. I worry about turnover and special team luck going against me mostly. If a freshman qb can score and a anemic slow paced O coached by a D only HC can trade points itll hurt just as much as the rest of the losses but I like my position.

  31. #556
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Erie Pigskins View Post
    Drink any concern about Tennessee qb situation spoiling your under? Guarantono came on in 2h last game and was highly touted out of jersey prep ranks

    Saw all of Guarantanos games as a junior and senior in high school at BC,He will be very good no doubt.Might take a little time. Very little. Smart dual threat QB with a rocket of an arm

  32. #557
    EOG Dedicated rdalert447's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    BZ is the last PRO standing at EOG.

  33. #558

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by rdalert447 View Post
    BZ is the last PRO standing at EOG.
    Goodluck to him. He puts in a decent effort on a lot of stuff. Hes good at mlb which is tough. Im sure as hell not.

    Lets hope all games are as easy as ULL was last night. I think them and s. Alabama showed me a lot this week and i wouldn't be surprised to see either play a bowl after I had basically written them off.
    I hate fridays and the nerves. Screen is fairly still except GA so. Catching some money which is surprising and a little worriesome. Rose hasnt been utilized enough I still had figured he'd play and make a difference. Ulm over catching wind which temporarily offsets the panic. Otherwise i have a +ev card and its up to the gods.
    Been 2 weeks of red ink so lets hope i switch back to black sunday morning.

  34. #559
    www.gabewins.com Gabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Drnk they are talking about at tgf

  35. #560

    Default Re: Milk's blog and musings 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball Zealot View Post
    Drnk they are talking about at tgf
    Idk what that means?

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