Goon's NHL Playoffs
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  1. #1

    Default Goon's NHL Playoffs

    I've been looking at the standings for weeks and weeks in the later part of the regular season trying to figure out who's gonna end up where, how they match up, etc.

    I made the Rangers -120 over Montreal at the deadline. I didn't think Montreal addressed their scoring issues but they have been able to mask them down the stretch. I think their record is inflated in the last month of the season and here is why. Since that loss to Chicago, they have played exactly one playoff team, Ottawa three times and to their credit they won all 3 of those games to win the division. Aside from that they went 5-4 against non playoff teams. Hardly an endorsement for being playoff ready but maybe we can give them a pass because they had pretty much locked up the division. While those wins against Ottawa were impressive, you have to consider how banged up, tired and piss poor Ottawa was late in the season. Montreal is Price and the top line, they have struggled on special teams, and didn't really get a coaching bounce from hiring Julien. I really like him as a coach and it seemed like he was trying to implement his system in the last month of the season but I can't really say I am impressed with their progress.

    Rangers are in a similar situation, they were locked into 4th in the Metro for a long while now and their play has suffered. Lundy was out injured and didn't look that great since returning. Rantaa has been outstanding and I don't think Vignault will be afraid to go to him if needed. I think the difference between these two sides is the scoring depth and size of the Rangers up top. Montreal has a significant edge in net but the Rangers have history on their side winning the last couple of playoff meetings. Special teams have been nothing special for either side but Emelin's absence could be a bit of an issue for the Habs pk. Rangers sport the best road record in the league, I think they can neutralize the home field advantage and squeeze this out. I think the wrong team is favoured in this series, I have bets on Rangers at +110, +120 and +125 to advance.

    Series Bet: NY Rangers +120 to Advance over Montreal 2 units (better available: +124 @ Pinny, +125 @ Grande)
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  2. #2

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Good read. In @ Pinny.

    That Habs defense is dinged and they don't do much for me down the middle. Danault, Plekanec, Shaw and Ott?

  3. #3

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Tight for time for full writeups but the other plays I have are:

    Edmonton Series -134 over San Jose 1 unit (-140 best available currently at BOL)
    Anaheim Series -165 & -170 over Calgary 1.5 units (-155 available at Grande, -160 @ BOL)
    Pittsburgh Series -150 over Columbus 1 unit (-152 available @ BOL)

    Game 1: Ottawa +120 over Boston 1 unit (+120 best available @ Greek)
    Game 1: Washington -200 over Toronto 1 unit (-225 best available @ Greek)
    Day 1 Home Teams -170 over Away Teams 1 unit (-185 widely available)

    Feedback & civil discussion welcomed.
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  4. #4

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Thanks for sharing, Goon.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Forgot one play:
    Game 1 Minnesota Team Total OVER 2.5 -139 0.5 units (-145 best available @Greek)
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  6. #6
    TYVM Morgan William!!! winkyduck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    I played

    Hawks -1.5 games +120
    Blues +174 in series. As long as Bruce BOOBreau is on the other bench come Playoff time - the other team must be looked at
    The mind is a terrible thing to waste unless we are talking about the MORONS who post at Covers where the collective Sports Gambling IQ for the ENTIRE site is.................4!!! and even that might be too high

  7. #7

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Fleury in net for Pens as Murray was hurt in warmups
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  8. #8

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Bruins without a shot in the 2P in Ottawa...
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  9. #9

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Jake Allen keeping the Blues in this one.
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  10. #10

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by winkyduck View Post
    I played

    Hawks -1.5 games +120
    Blues +174 in series. As long as Bruce BOOBreau is on the other bench come Playoff time - the other team must be looked at
    Boudreau does it again!!!

  11. #11
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    I used to play 1p under 1.5 in game 1 alll the time. Last night, they were undefeated. There is a feeling-out process between the teams - play conservative and don't take dumb penalties. Teams don't open it up until they have to.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    [080] Ottawa +106 Pinnacle

  13. #13

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Rough start on Day 1.

    Riding that outstanding Caps play and added:

    Game 1: Leafs Team Total under 2.5 -150 0.5 units
    Day 2: Home Teams -255 over away teams 1 unit
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  14. #14
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    home ice is worthless..

    how does zig-zig do in the playoffs....

  15. #15

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Methot in Krejci still out...

    Game 2: Ottawa -105 over Boston 1 unit
    Game 2: Anaheim -150 over Calgary 1 unit
    Game 2: Chicago -165 over Nashville 1 unit
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  16. #16

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Game 2: Bruins Team Total UNDER 2.5 -135 @ Ottawa 0.5 units

    Series: Chicago +118 over Nashville @ 0-1 1 unit
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  17. #17

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Added Caps Series -108 over Toronto 2 units this morning (-102 available now @ Pinny)

    I really like the way Trotz has handled his team in spite of losing B2B OT games, pressure is on Leafs now to go 3-1, if they don't Caps take control of the series.
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  18. #18

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Game 4: Leafs Team Total UNDER 2.5 -113 0.5 units
    Game 4: Blues Team Total UNDER 2.5 -127 0.5 units
    Wednesday NHL Away Teams +0.5 -125 1 unit
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  19. #19

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Friday Salami OVER 10.5 -110 1 unit
    Friday Home Teams pk -135 1 unit

    Can someone please explain to me why the Bruins are faves in Ottawa?
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  20. #20

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Game 5: Ottawa +101 over Boston 1 unit

    Boston just doesn't have an answer to Karlsson right now, the Sens captains is helping to elevate the play of everybody around him. As long as Anderson doesn't put up a stinker, the Bruins are booking tee times tomorrow.

    Fun bet(small limits): Bobby Ryan goals scored over David Krejci goals scored tonight.
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  21. #21

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Round 1 Recap: 12-9-1 +5.505 units
    5-1 on series plays, poor showing on game to game action.
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  22. #22

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Round 2 Series Bets, grabbed all at opener this morning:

    Nashville -102 over St Louis 3 units
    I really like the forecheck and cycle game of the Preds, Minnesota threw a lot of rubber at Allen but didn't really put a lot of pressure on the Blues D in a physical way. The Preds can skate and hit and Rinne is the only keeper that outplayed Allen in the first round.

    Rangers -145 over Ottawa 1 unit
    I thought this would open a little lower based on the bad metrics of the Rangers but their road record kept that from happening. I think analytics are fine to project a team's performance for the regular season but in a 7 game series when you have to go mano a mano, it's more about matchups, adjustments and goaltending than ever before. Ottawa is one injury away from being done, Karlsson was outstanding vs Bruins but they were basically facing a 40 years old, a rookie and a bunch of AHL'ers. Rangers a much more balanced team and they are battle tested.

    Ducks -130 over Edmonton 1 unit
    This one moved against me but I don't mind it. might even add to it if it hits -115. The Ducks proved they can skate and bash against Calgary. They will not be as undisciplined as the Sharks in the past round and they are a nightmare to matchup down the middle with that 3 headed monster. It will be difficult for Oilers to get their speed going offensively when they will start a lot of plays chasing the puck. The Ducks D is mobile and they are capable of keeping McDavid in check.

    No play on the Pittsburgh series yet, I am looking to play Pens, I think Toronto exposed plenty of holes in the Caps game and the speed of the Pens can take advantage. Will probably play that game by game.
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  23. #23
    EOG Dedicated Heim's Avatar
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    No expert but Blues seem like a tough fade. They do just enough to win. They had every reason to lose GM5 at Minny in OT yet pulled it out.

  24. #24

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Allen was on fire with .956 save percentage vs Minny. His history indicates he won't sustain those numbers. If he can keep the preds to 3% scoring more power to him. Mike Yeo coached Minnesota and had intimate knowledge of their breakouts and pp schemes. As far as I am aware, he's never coached for Nashville or with any one on their staff. Blues won 2 games in OT with goals from Edmundson and Paajarvi in games where the ice was tilted the other way. Not exactly a winning recipe if you ask me. Preds took out the #1 seed in the west in convincing fashion. With all due respect to Pareyko and Edmundson as a second pairing, the Preds depth on D is heads and shoulders above the Blues, especially 2nd and 3rd pairings. Blues got schooled in the FO circle vs Minnesota and had trouble keeping possession, expect more of the same against Preds. Preds have rolled 4 lines in the 1st round while the Blues have only spotted their 4th line. It's the second and third round when those heavy minutes start to add up and make a difference. This will be a tight checking series with a lot of close games, i just think the Preds have more scoring and better goaltending. Neither team has impressed on special teams, whoever wins that battle probably takes the series.
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  25. #25

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
    Allen was on fire with .956 save percentage vs Minny. His history indicates he won't sustain those numbers. If he can keep the preds to 3% scoring more power to him. Mike Yeo coached Minnesota and had intimate knowledge of their breakouts and pp schemes. As far as I am aware, he's never coached for Nashville or with any one on their staff. Blues won 2 games in OT with goals from Edmundson and Paajarvi in games where the ice was tilted the other way. Not exactly a winning recipe if you ask me. Preds took out the #1 seed in the west in convincing fashion. With all due respect to Pareyko and Edmundson as a second pairing, the Preds depth on D is heads and shoulders above the Blues, especially 2nd and 3rd pairings. Blues got schooled in the FO circle vs Minnesota and had trouble keeping possession, expect more of the same against Preds. Preds have rolled 4 lines in the 1st round while the Blues have only spotted their 4th line. It's the second and third round when those heavy minutes start to add up and make a difference. This will be a tight checking series with a lot of close games, i just think the Preds have more scoring and better goaltending. Neither team has impressed on special teams, whoever wins that battle probably takes the series.
    I don't think Allen's history is any indication of future results here. And thou Pareyko and Edmundson had poor games 1 and 2, their corsi numbers were the best on the team the final 3 games including the loss. And what you say is true that Yeo had an advantage having coached many of the Wild, he never coached the rest of the league where his record after taking over was one of the best down the stretch in the entire league along with Allen riding that to a near sweep of the highly favored Boudreau coached Wild. The question to me is how bad were the Hawks those 4 games. Was Nashville THAT much better or did the Hawks take their foot off the gas down the stretch and never regained the superiority we are all accustomed to. If your basing past history of Rinne vs Allen, Allen holds a distinct edge in this series without the ability to turn it on and off like in the past? But it's not about that. Blues beat the Wild as a dog without a home ice advantage or last change and beat the Wild in 5. Now THEY have those advantages against a team sky high in terms of their self-worth and I'm not convinced at this point that's justified yet. Will be a good series if Allen continues his fine play. I have a low-risk high reward play if the Blues advance here, so my thinking may be more hopeful than real here. In other words, show me a little more Nashville, and I'll get on board too. Until then, the jury's still out with me on this team.
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  26. #26
    TYVM Morgan William!!! winkyduck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
    Round 2 Series Bets, grabbed all at opener this morning:

    Ducks -130 over Edmonton 1 unit
    This one moved against me but I don't mind it. might even add to it if it hits -115. The Ducks proved they can skate and bash against Calgary. They will not be as undisciplined as the Sharks in the past round and they are a nightmare to matchup down the middle with that 3 headed monster. It will be difficult for Oilers to get their speed going offensively when they will start a lot of plays chasing the puck. The Ducks D is mobile and they are capable of keeping McDavid in check.

    No play on the Pittsburgh series yet, I am looking to play Pens, I think Toronto exposed plenty of holes in the Caps game and the speed of the Pens can take advantage. Will probably play that game by game.
    As a Kings fan I HATE the Inferior SoCal NHL team

    BUT

    I am not stupid. Think the Inferior Ones match up very well with Oilers. I took a shot with: Inferior Ones -1.5 games +184

    As for Pens/Caps: I'd grab Pens NOW! Think series heads back to PA 1-1 at which point Pens are the fave and at which point I will grab Caps at Plus Money
    The mind is a terrible thing to waste unless we are talking about the MORONS who post at Covers where the collective Sports Gambling IQ for the ENTIRE site is.................4!!! and even that might be too high

  27. #27

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by winkyduck View Post
    As a Kings fan I HATE the Inferior SoCal NHL team

    BUT

    I am not stupid. Think the Inferior Ones match up very well with Oilers. I took a shot with: Inferior Ones -1.5 games +184

    As for Pens/Caps: I'd grab Pens NOW! Think series heads back to PA 1-1 at which point Pens are the fave and at which point I will grab Caps at Plus Money

    so you are not sure who will win game 1 but positive who will win game 2

  28. #28
    TYVM Morgan William!!! winkyduck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by dinkenson View Post
    so you are not sure who will win game 1 but positive who will win game 2
    Never said that. I said they head to PA 1-1 and I have no idea who wins what game. I stand by that
    The mind is a terrible thing to waste unless we are talking about the MORONS who post at Covers where the collective Sports Gambling IQ for the ENTIRE site is.................4!!! and even that might be too high

  29. #29

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Winky:

    I think Dink is saying that you're violating theory on Conditional Probability.

    Just say that you view these teams as pretty even and leave it at that.

  30. #30

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    I'll editorialize. That view of "bounce-back" being an angle is terribly flawed.

  31. #31

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Wow, already suffering from puck withdrawal after 2 days of no hockey....

    Added a series bet on Pittsburgh +125 1 unit, I guess I should have waited a bit longer, money keeps coming on the Caps in this series and I can`t quite figure out why.

    Fun bets on the first game of each series 1/4 unit on game going to over time:
    Ducks +293, Blues +289, Sens +264 and Caps +297.

    Game 1 Bets:
    Preds +110 over Blues 0.5 units
    Anaheim -130 over Oilers 1 unit
    Rangers -108 over Sens 1 unit
    Caps Pens OVER 5.5 -104 0.5 units
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  32. #32

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Finally:
    Game 1 Blues Team Total UNDER 2.5 -125 0.5 units
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  33. #33

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Good luck, Goon.

    Thx for sharing. Can't do more than that!

  34. #34

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    Game 3: Pens -109 over Caps 1 unit

    The Caps just can't raise their game in the playoffs, it takes more than skill to win at this level, until they start battling for every 50-50 situation they will not get past the Pens.
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  35. #35

    Default Re: Goon's NHL Playoffs

    here come your daily fades

    Home Teams pk -157 1 unit
    Rangers -155 over Sens 1 unit
    Nasville -140 over St Louis 2 units
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