Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?
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    Default Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    SEEN kersh in the 4s. Randy back in the day.


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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Pedro low 4s possibly

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    I would think laying the wood over -400 would be profitable in MLB.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Fernando Valenzuela

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    April 3, 2017

    Kershaw vs chacin padres

    stations casino closed kershaw -420

    dodgers won 14-3

    I would say at -420 he was a bargain at the time.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    there have been some 480s Atl with Maddux and those guys were all high 400s even in the play offs. I think maybe one time Maddux hit 500 but I dont think anyone has ever closed at 500.

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    there have been some 480s Atl with Maddux and those guys were all high 400s even in the play offs. I think maybe one time Maddux hit 500 but I dont think anyone has ever closed at 500.
    In the playoffs lol. Wantit you are a riot.
    tripp blows

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Has there ever been a -300+ in playoffs?


  9. #9

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball Zealot View Post
    Has there ever been a -300+ in playoffs?
    I doubt it. Hard to make the playoffs without a reasonably talented pitcher leading you. And that guy would be going up against the kind of guys who would warrant the -300s. It'd have to be a situation where the Kershaw like pitcher was at home, and for some reason facing a weak team's #3 or 4...

  10. #10

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    I seem to remember a Nationals-Yankees interleague series 8-9 years or so ago where the Yankees closed in the -400's for 2 out of the 3 games. I think it was 2009 and the Yankees pitchers were Sabathia and Pettite.

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    I know Randy was -465 or so vs TB...2005ish


  12. #12

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Check the numbers when Arizona had schilling and Johnson pitching.

    Pedro was -480 vs TB before also

  13. #13

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    It would depend on the source you use for lines. Against widely available lines with normal vig I don't remember ever seeing anything larger than the high -400s, but at a book with higher vig that specifically targets square clientele and bans sharps, i.e. SIA or Bovada offshore or Stations and William Hill in Vegas, it's certainly possible somewhere got that high. For example the LAD -420 line Mr Top mentions at Stations also closed -420 on SIA, but closed -355 on Pinny, so that's a pretty big difference.

    The highest line I'm aware of over the last 20 years or so was last year Jun 4 2016 ATL/LAD Norris/Kershaw closed LAD -475 on Pinny, but some square books had higher, for example SIA had -525 and some other books had -500. Prior to that, the highest line I've seen is Sep 14 2014 TB/BOS Kazmir/Martinez which closed BOS -475 on Pinny. I don't have the closers from square books but I would guess some square books or books with higher vig had -500 or higher. And I don't have any source for lines earlier than roughly 1997 so I don't know what any lines were during Maddux's time in the mid 90s when he crushed.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    I doubt it. Hard to make the playoffs without a reasonably talented pitcher leading you. And that guy would be going up against the kind of guys who would warrant the -300s. It'd have to be a situation where the Kershaw like pitcher was at home, and for some reason facing a weak team's #3 or 4...
    I don't have any easy way to look it up but off the top of my head I remembered MIN @ NYY g1 Duensing/Sabathia Oct 7 2009 closing pretty high, which closed -365 on Pinny. Pretty sure I bet MIN all three games of that series and lost all three.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    For the hell of it, I looked up a few top teams from the 1999-2001 era. Covers still has numbers going back that far. The highest I saw was minus 380 for Pedro in 1999 vs Florida. David Cone with the Yanks was actually minus 350 in a 1999 start vs Minnesota.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by groovinmahoovin View Post
    I don't have any easy way to look it up but off the top of my head I remembered MIN @ NYY g1 Duensing/Sabathia Oct 7 2009 closing pretty high, which closed -365 on Pinny. Pretty sure I bet MIN all three games of that series and lost all three.
    Duensing was their game 1 starter in 2009? That was his rookie year, that's pretty funny.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    What woulda Bronson Arroyo at Clayton Kershaw line be like if it was played right now?

    Kershaw -450?

  18. #18

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    86 mets and 2000 Yankees were close to 500. Pedro was 450 opening day and lost

  19. #19

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    What woulda Bronson Arroyo at Clayton Kershaw line be like if it was played right now?

    Kershaw -450?
    I doubt it. Kershaw was minus 340 at home vs San Diego with Chacin. While Chacin may be better than Arroyo, the Reds are clearly better than San Diego.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    I doubt it. Kershaw was minus 340 at home vs San Diego with Chacin. While Chacin may be better than Arroyo, the Reds are clearly better than San Diego.
    I'd see some serious value in the Dodgers vs Arroyo if it wasn't over -400. No way Arroyo is escaping that game with less than 4 runs allowed, so the Reds would have to get to Kershaw.

  21. #21

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Why Arroyo? I can think of 3 NL pitchers that I would make bigger dogs than him vs Kershaw in L.A.

    Chad Kuhl
    Rookie Davis
    Jake Arrieta (Just kidding!)

    Ok, 2... Koehler has been sent down.

  22. #22

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    For the hell of it, I looked up a few top teams from the 1999-2001 era. Covers still has numbers going back that far. The highest I saw was minus 380 for Pedro in 1999 vs Florida. David Cone with the Yanks was actually minus 350 in a 1999 start vs Minnesota.
    Pedro was -480 vs Cleveland on 9/16/2002
    Cleveland started Ricardo Rodriguez

    Red Sox won 6-1

  23. #23

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    red Sox were -300 or more favorites in 5 out of 8 games between 9/9 and 9/16/02. They won them all

  24. #24

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    9/14/04 Pedro was -460 vs Tampa bay. They lost 5-2

    9/16/04. Schilling was -440 vs Tampa bay. They won 11-4

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    When Ubaldo was pitching like Cy Young for half a season for the Rox he was very highly priced in some games. Nowhere near -500 but he was North of -300
    The mind is a terrible thing to waste unless we are talking about the MORONS who post at Covers where the collective Sports Gambling IQ for the ENTIRE site is.................4!!! and even that might be too high

  26. #26

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by groovinmahoovin View Post
    Prior to that, the highest line I've seen is Sep 14 2014 TB/BOS Kazmir/Martinez which closed BOS -475 on Pinny. I don't have the closers from square books but I would guess some square books or books with higher vig had -500 or higher.
    Typo in this post, that was Sep 14 2004.

  27. #27

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Duensing was their game 1 starter in 2009? That was his rookie year, that's pretty funny.
    Their rotation that year didn't have any real ace or even a #2 type starter. I don't recall if anyone was injured late in the year but the pitchers who had the most starts in 2009 for the Twins were Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, Anthony Swarzak, and then Duensing, so not exactly a team of world beaters. Just using ERA+ since it's simple, the highest ERA+ that season out of that group was Blackburn's 109 and Duensing's was 121.

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    there have been some 480s Atl with Maddux and those guys were all high 400s even in the play offs. I think maybe one time Maddux hit 500 but I dont think anyone has ever closed at 500.
    I remember the first year of existence of the Rockies, 1993, Atlanta went 54-19 in the second half of the season. They swept the Rockies that year, 13-0. The last 3 games of the season they played the Rockies, pitching Avery, Maddux and Glavine. As I remember almost all the sportsbooks had no ML on the game, only a RL and that was a steep price favoring Atlanta. IMO, Maddux would have been over -500. Atlanta won the last 3 games: 7-4, 10-1, and 5-3.

  29. #29

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Interesting note, Bob.

    No money line on the Braves versus the Rockies.

    I remember the game Groovin discussed with Kershaw versus Norris.

    I believe CG Technology closed Kershaw -550.

  30. #30

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Interesting note, Bob.

    No money line on the Braves versus the Rockies.

    I remember the game Groovin discussed with Kershaw versus Norris.

    I believe CG Technology closed Kershaw -550.
    closed -450.

    Yeah I remember the games with Rockies I think a few places did have MLs but I dont remember them closing over 500. I know some didnt. Going off memory though no records.

    Atlanta was in the 400s in the post season when they were good. Avery smoltz maddux and Glavine MAddux started against an off starter a few times. If those guys were pitching when everyone wasnt roided up and scoring wasnt stupid they would have probably never had MLs put on them. But thats also why they couldnt win World Series because they always got into games with guys with yellow eye.

    You could google it but not sure if they track that or not. But in 95 or so they only lost 2 or 3 games in the post season including the World Series against the Indians who were supposed to be the team to break the curse there.

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by ThatNegroJ View Post
    Check the numbers when Arizona had schilling and Johnson pitching.

    Pedro was -480 vs TB before also
    I remember seeing that game at -500 at bodog and another book back in the day.

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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by groovinmahoovin View Post
    I don't have any easy way to look it up but off the top of my head I remembered MIN @ NYY g1 Duensing/Sabathia Oct 7 2009 closing pretty high, which closed -365 on Pinny. Pretty sure I bet MIN all three games of that series and lost all three.

    I was going to mention that. Highest playoff line in recent history. I bet Twins +2.5 at like -110 and I feel I should've won.


    and no, there has never been a -500 at a book with legitimate lines, like Pinnacle/5 Dimes. This thread has been posted many times before.


    In the past 10 years, I'm not sure there's been a single game which even closed at -400 at Pinnacle.
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    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by ComptrBob View Post
    I remember the first year of existence of the Rockies, 1993, Atlanta went 54-19 in the second half of the season. They swept the Rockies that year, 13-0. The last 3 games of the season they played the Rockies, pitching Avery, Maddux and Glavine. As I remember almost all the sportsbooks had no ML on the game, only a RL and that was a steep price favoring Atlanta. IMO, Maddux would have been over -500. Atlanta won the last 3 games: 7-4, 10-1, and 5-3.
    I know there was a ML the last game when Braves/Giants were tied for 1st on the last day of the season. I know because that weekend, Dad and I helped my sister move from OC to Vegas. That Sunday I made a 2-team parlay of Dodgers/Braves. I won it because Dodgers were something like +140 and won 12-1 in a game that was that "close" for most of it while the Braves won the NL West that day
    The mind is a terrible thing to waste unless we are talking about the MORONS who post at Covers where the collective Sports Gambling IQ for the ENTIRE site is.................4!!! and even that might be too high

  34. #34

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    I was going to mention that. Highest playoff line in recent history. I bet Twins +2.5 at like -110 and I feel I should've won.


    and no, there has never been a -500 at a book with legitimate lines, like Pinnacle/5 Dimes. This thread has been posted many times before.


    In the past 10 years, I'm not sure there's been a single game which even closed at -400 at Pinnacle.
    Youre wrong but not the first time. June 4 2016 Kershaw closed -485 at Pinnacle. Closed 490 at 5 Dimes closed -500 at a bunch of places. Whether you want to call those places 'legit' or not is up to you. I didnt really because I said in apost above there hasnt been a -500 close that I knew of at a decent book. Semantics maybe.


    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...?date=20160604

    Rich Harden in Aug of 2008 closed -420 at both Pinnacle and 5 Dimes, but there is no link to that one just what is in my DB so it isnt independently verifiable. But its accurate.

    June of 07 Sanatana closed -415 at Pinnacle and 425 at 5 Dimes also in my DB not verifiable anywhere else but maybe Killersports which isnt all that accurate.

    Been a couple others at -400 as well I have in there, and quite a few have offered -400 or better but been bought back to close at less than -400.

    Those are the 'modern' ones. Like I said Maddux was big fav all the time and Pedro was huge a few times. Big Eunuch was -400 a few times too. I dont think Kerry Wood or the other kid Dusty Baker ruined ever were though for the Cubs. Pryor. Arrieta closed -375 and 380 a couple times.

  35. #35

    Default Re: Has there ever been a -500 ml fave in MLB?

    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    closed -450.

    Yeah I remember the games with Rockies I think a few places did have MLs but I dont remember them closing over 500. I know some didnt. Going off memory though no records.

    Atlanta was in the 400s in the post season when they were good. Avery smoltz maddux and Glavine MAddux started against an off starter a few times. If those guys were pitching when everyone wasnt roided up and scoring wasnt stupid they would have probably never had MLs put on them. But thats also why they couldnt win World Series because they always got into games with guys with yellow eye.

    You could google it but not sure if they track that or not. But in 95 or so they only lost 2 or 3 games in the post season including the World Series against the Indians who were supposed to be the team to break the curse there.

    I'll check my notes.

    I saw Kershaw -550 somewhere here in Las Vegas.

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