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Thread: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

  1. #71

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    WRC fake news....it goes up and down.... happ was high..... now he is low......
    Why the obsession with Happ? BTW, even after a slump, his OPS still is over .800.

    As for WRC+, I assume you are aware this takes park into effect. Otherwise, Colorado would always dominate conventional hitting stats, which is a joke,

  2. #72

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by King Felix View Post
    They have faced terrible lefty starters this year; that is indisputable based on the evidence above. That is why their record is so good vs lefties. They, as pointed out above, have hit lefties well this year - as pointed out by being 5th in wRC+ in baseball... that said, just as you argued the Nats offensive output had been inflated due to poor competition, the Cubs offensive output vs lefties has been greatly inflated due to horrible competition.

    Last year the Cubs were better vs righties than they were vs lefties - 64% vs 62%. They are not some superior team vs left handed starters, imo. They have simply been the beneficiary of facing multiple arms who are no longer in MLB.

    I'm not cherry picking; you are picking one start vs Kershaw as a barometer on how the Cubs will do vs Kershaw in the future and how the Cubs will do vs all left handed starters. That is unreasonable, imo.
    dodgers are 27-10 vs lefties. Pull up their list of lefties and tell me how superior it is.

    I feel like you really are trying to avoid that shitty lefties float around the league for years when they shouldn't because some teams and guys simply can't hit them, no matter how mediocre they are.

  3. #73

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    The idea the Cubs have played a significantly worse group of lefties than the average team is a misguided one at best, but it's on you to prove that. So maybe post an average WAR for lefty starter opponent for a bunch of teams so we can make a determination.

  4. #74

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    And again, this is baseball. If you play 20 shitty lefties, you're still doing good if you win 12 of those 20 games. Whereas the Cubs seemed to have won like 16 of them. That's still good, bud. It's baseball. Baseball has upsets a lot. Beating all of the pitchers who suck means you must be good at something bc it's baseball. You should lose a lot even when you're facing inferior competition.

  5. #75
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    Why the obsession with Happ? BTW, even after a slump, his OPS still is over .800.

    As for WRC+, I assume you are aware this takes park into effect. Otherwise, Colorado would always dominate conventional hitting stats, which is a joke,


    with a 30% k rate clip not on cubs long unless he hits......as of now not playing everyday...... but his walk rate did jump maybe they are telling him to choose more.

  6. #76

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    The idea the Cubs have played a significantly worse group of lefties than the average team is a misguided one at best, but it's on you to prove that. So maybe post an average WAR for lefty starter opponent for a bunch of teams so we can make a determination.
    How is it misguided? You think the average ERA of lefty starters in baseball this year is 5?

    I already presented the starters they have faced. The average ERA of those starters comes in around 5. The average ERA of lefty starters this year is no where near 5.

    The average FIP for a left handed pitcher this year is 4.28. The average ERA is 4.2. The Cubs average ERA faced is 4.91.

  7. #77

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by King Felix View Post
    How is it misguided? You think the average ERA of lefty starters in baseball this year is 5?

    I already presented the starters they have faced. The average ERA of those starters comes in around 5. The average ERA of lefty starters this year is no where near 5.

    The average FIP for a left handed pitcher this year is 4.28. The average ERA is 4.2. The Cubs average ERA faced is 4.91.
    Your own admission states it as misguided.

    You think the difference between 0.71 in ERA makes the difference between a .500 winning percentage and a .700 winning percentage?

    That's insanity...

  8. #78

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Lester plays for the Cubs, so they obviously won't face him. Quintana was traded before the Cubs/Sox series so they can't face him. They get MadBum today. What top level lefties have they not faced?

  9. #79

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Also we would need the average ERA for the average starting pitcher, you just said pitcher.

    So this may go from insane to fractionally more insane lmao.

  10. #80

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    The Cubs all in all have much better at bats vs any lefty as compared to a tough righty.

    Scherzer twice in a 5 game series is way scarier than Kershaw twice in a 5 game series vs our lineup.

    You're barking up the wrong tree.

  11. #81

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Your own admission states it as misguided.

    You think the difference between 0.71 in ERA makes the difference between a .500 winning percentage and a .700 winning percentage?

    That's insanity...
    Huh? Yes, .71 runs is a significant difference. The starters the Cubs have beaten are 51-93 combined.

    You said "The idea the Cubs have played a significantly worse group of lefties than the average team is a misguided one at best" ...
    How is it misguided? They have faced significantly worse group of lefties than the average team; that's backed up by the vast differential between ERA and FIP.

  12. #82

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    If you really think the difference between 0.71 (which still has not been established since you seemed to use any pitcher for the first ERA and then only Cubs opposition starters which is clearly wrong) makes the difference between .500 baseball and .700 baseball then there's no point continuing this discussion because you don't have a concept for how insignificant that is.

  13. #83

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    If you really think the difference between 0.71 (which still has not been established since you seemed to use any pitcher for the first ERA and then only Cubs opposition starters which is clearly wrong) makes the difference between .500 baseball and .700 baseball then there's no point continuing this discussion because you don't have a concept for how insignificant that is.
    Insignificant?

    The difference between .71 runs per game is roughly 11% on a teams winning percentage. So yes, it's not 20%, but to call 11% insignificant is just incorrect. It takes an 81 win team to a 98 win team. That's pretty significant if you ask me.

    Also, why is that wrong? I was establishing the point that the Cubs record vs Left Handed Starters (something that has been quoted here many-a-time) was greatly misleading due to their level of competition... which I further went on to breakdown. I have no dog in this fight, I just find the regurgitation of that "fact" as a basis for why the Cubs would match-up well vs someone like the Dodgers to be misleading; given the Cubs level of competition on average this year.

    "Any pitcher?" I used left handed pitchers. If anything, I should be removing the Cubs data from the league point, which would in turn actually lower the league ERA/FIP because the Cubs opponents has been much worse than the league average. I didn't do that though.
    tripp blows

  14. #84

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Timelytowin View Post
    Insignificant?

    The difference between .71 runs per game is roughly 11% on a teams winning percentage. So yes, it's not 20%, but to call 11% insignificant is just incorrect. It takes an 81 win team to a 98 win team. That's pretty significant if you ask me.

    Also, why is that wrong? I was establishing the point that the Cubs record vs Left Handed Starters (something that has been quoted here many-a-time) was greatly misleading due to their level of competition... which I further went on to breakdown.

    "Any pitcher?" I used left handed pitchers. If anything, I should be removing the Cubs data from the league point, which would in turn actually lower the league ERA/FIP because the Cubs opponents has been much worse than the league average. I didn't do that though.
    You should only be using left handed starters dumb dumb. Of course left handed relievers have better stats and weigh down the average. Hopefully you can figure out why.

  15. #85

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    And since those pitchers probably averaged 5 innings, the new correct ERA differential will be probably result in actuality less than 0.35 runs per game.

    And you think that's the difference between .500 baseball and .700 baseball. It's utter insanity.

  16. #86

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    And since those pitchers probably averaged 5 innings, the new correct ERA differential will be probably result in actuality less than 0.35 runs per game.

    And you think that's the difference between .500 baseball and .700 baseball. It's utter insanity.
    If those starters are replaced early in a game, you are then talking about a team getting into the worst part of their bullpen; which on average performs significantly worse than the bullpen arms that come into games that involve high leverage situations. So odds are you are not replacing your starter following a poor start with a reliever who is at or above league average.

    Also, the volatility of a 27 game sample vs the volatility of a 111 game sample is large; the difference between being a .700 and a .600 team is 2 games; which in theory has probably come down to a small string of events to change that outcome. This means the Cubs could be playing closer to true .600 ball vs lefty starters than .700 ball, but the sample is not large enough to work itself out. Thus meaning that the 11%, which puts them around a .600 team is accurate.

    Regardless, this is all a moot point in a short series; anything could happen. That said, I don't think the Cubs have any edge over the Dodgers based on their numbers vs lefties; they perform worse than the Dodgers vs both lefties and righties, and being below league average vs righties - as the Cubs are - is much more damning than being above average vs lefties is rewarding imo.
    tripp blows

  17. #87

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Are you not going to give me the average left handed starter ERA?

    Comparing left handed starter ERA for the Cubs to entire league lefties is so disingenuous because lefty relievers obviously have significantly lower ERAs because they are either specialists or pretty good generally.

  18. #88

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Fukk all these bullshit numbers. In the last week I have watched some snake charmer named Brent Suter and an off the street vagrant named Tyrone Blach dominate the Cubs with junk that couldn't break my front window

  19. #89

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    To show how much bullshit this is, let's compare to the Dodgers. i would argue the Dodgers have had an easier path. Five different lefties they have faced three times, and they've faced Tyler Anderson FOUR times! Oh yeah, they don't have to face Kershaw, Alex Wood or Ryu. And Bumgarner missed several of their series due to his injury yet Blach and Matt Moore faced them three times.

    Clayton Richard (3 times)
    Kyle Freeland (3 times)
    Tyler Anderson (4 times)
    Jon Lester (twice)
    Brett Anderson
    Patrick Corbin (twice)
    Robbie Ray (3 times)
    Ty Blach (3 times)
    Matt Moore (3 times)
    Justin Nicolino
    Gio Gonzalez
    Amir Garrett
    Stephen Matz (twice)
    Overton ???
    Danny Duffy
    O Grady
    Carlos Rodon
    Jaime Garcia
    Sean Newcomb (twice)
    MadBum

  20. #90

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    The Dodgers make consistent hard contact against LHP and the Cubs don't.

    Simple as that.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=18,d

  21. #91

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    To show how much bullshit this is, let's compare to the Dodgers. i would argue the Dodgers have had an easier path. Five different lefties they have faced three times, and they've faced Tyler Anderson FOUR times! Oh yeah, they don't have to face Kershaw, Alex Wood or Ryu. And Bumgarner missed several of their series due to his injury yet Blach and Matt Moore faced them three times.

    Clayton Richard (3 times)
    Kyle Freeland (3 times)
    Tyler Anderson (4 times)
    Jon Lester (twice)
    Brett Anderson
    Patrick Corbin (twice)
    Robbie Ray (3 times)
    Ty Blach (3 times)
    Matt Moore (3 times)
    Justin Nicolino
    Gio Gonzalez
    Amir Garrett
    Stephen Matz (twice)
    Overton ???
    Danny Duffy
    O Grady
    Carlos Rodon
    Jaime Garcia
    Sean Newcomb (twice)
    MadBum
    Who in this thread has touted the Dodgers record vs left handed starters? The only people who have touted and commented on a teams record vs lefty starters have been the Cub followers so I'm not quite sure what the point of this is.

  22. #92

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by King Felix View Post
    Who in this thread has touted the Dodgers record vs left handed starters? The only people who have touted and commented on a teams record vs lefty starters have been the Cub followers so I'm not quite sure what the point of this is.
    My point is the Cubs SoS vs lefties is likely no better or worse than anyone else. We've heard how much better the Dodgers are against LHP so I looked them up. You could probably pick ANY MLB team and look at the lefties they've faced and see quite a few easy spots.

  23. #93

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    My point is the Cubs SoS vs lefties is likely no better or worse than anyone else. We've heard how much better the Dodgers are against LHP so I looked them up. You could probably pick ANY MLB team and look at the lefties they've faced and see quite a few easy spots.
    He got called out on using overall LH pitching ERA to compare to Cubs opponent starter lefty ERA.

    I really am curious to know average starting ERA for a lefty. It may not be 4.91 but i bet its way closer.

    But we are correct in that the group of lefties is not significantly worse than other teams. A lot of bad lefties floating around the league because some teams can't hit them and teams are short reliable starters.

  24. #94
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  25. #95

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    1-2 a good record for you?

  26. #96
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    1-2 a good record for you?
    1-2 Kid where do you get your gorrilla math?
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  27. #97

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    1-2 Kid where do you get your gorrilla math?
    ? you lost your under 8 with Quintana and lost the game before fading Arrieta.

    Any plays tonight on the Cubs game? I'm sure everyone would love to fade...

  28. #98
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    They finally make the sCrubs a dog and they're still overvalued.

    Where do they get these donkeys???
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  29. #99
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    ? you lost your under 8 with Quintana and lost the game before fading Arrieta.

    Any plays tonight on the Cubs game? I'm sure everyone would love to fade...
    Ok so you just started grading 3 games ago. Got it.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  30. #100

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    Ok so you just started grading 3 games ago. Got it.
    Ya. I'm giving you a chance to prove wins with all of the past posting you've done the last few months.

    Let's see some pre post wins... you've gotten 1 in the 2nd half... one. Any plays tonight? Pre post...

  31. #101
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    Did you guys remember how well I did on this one July 21st?
    [#901] STL CARDINALS +1½ -170 (C. MARTINEZ -R) Must Pitch (J. ARRIETA -R) Must Pitch [ vs CHI CUBS]

    [#901] STL CARDINALS +132 (C. MARTINEZ -R) Must Pitch (J. ARRIETA -R) Must Pitch [ vs CHI...

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    How did this prediction turn out?


    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Ya. I'm giving you a chance to prove wins with all of the past posting you've done the last few months.

    Let's see some pre post wins... you've gotten 1 in the 2nd half... one. Any plays tonight? Pre post...
    Here's a couple kid.

    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  32. #102

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    So I'll ask again since you seem to have some trouble reading, any plays on tonight's cubs game?

  33. #103
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Listen kid. I know you hate the fact that I've made a mountain of cash this year fading a team you thought was going to win around 100 games. blah

    Please get over it. Its sad.
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  34. #104
    Eventus stultorum magister NowshesmyRuca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NowshesmyRuca View Post
    They finally make the sCrubs a dog and they're still overvalued.

    Where do they get these donkeys???
    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    So I'll ask again since you seem to have some trouble reading, any plays on tonight's cubs game?
    Reading between the lines not your forte?
    Clowns make me laugh! :+textinb3

  35. #105

    Default Re: Cubswhisperer Ruca Thread

    I'll ask you again, do you have any plays on tonight's Cubs game? This is a gambling forum and you comment about the Cubs after the game about how smart your call was at a 50000 to 1 rate as you post a play before the game. Very humiliating behavior.

    Do. You. Have. A. Play. Tonight. For. The. Cubs. Game?

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