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Thread: Yu Darvish playoff choker

  1. #71
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    27.5 million for 34 year old Jon Lester
    21 million for Darvish
    28 million for Heyward
    16.5 million for Ben Zobrist.


    93 million bucks

    for that.
    Don't have a title without the first and 4th player you mentioned.

    You must be confused as to what the purpose of constructing a team is.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  2. #72
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick McIrish View Post
    Nice to hear from informed fans, guys like FW and Valuist. They will give it to you straight.

    Just because you're a fan you don't have to be the biggest homer in town. That's what 8 year olds do.

    I won't mention any names of guilty parties but he thinks Cutler is a Hall of Famer, LOL.
    "The Biggest homer here" has been more right about the Cubs since 2015 since any poster on this site by a wide margin. Ask FW and Valuist if they agree with that assessment. Good chance they do.

    Oddly enough, around a month and a half ago, I said the Cubs were going to sign Darvish and I was upset that it wasn't going to be Arrieta... also of course said Lester to Cubs 8 months before it happened.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  3. #73
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    27.5 million for 34 year old Jon Lester
    21 million for Darvish
    28 million for Heyward
    16.5 million for Ben Zobrist.


    93 million bucks

    for that.
    There are many flat out steals on the roster right now - http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/

    When its time to get paid, then the Cubs have problems.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  4. #74

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    "The Biggest homer here" has been more right about the Cubs since 2015 since any poster on this site by a wide margin. Ask FW and Valuist if they agree with that assessment. Good chance they do.

    Oddly enough, around a month and a half ago, I said the Cubs were going to sign Darvish and I was upset that it wasn't going to be Arrieta... also of course said Lester to Cubs 8 months before it happened.

    quinta will take over as cub best lefty

  5. #75
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    quinta will take over as cub best lefty
    probably

    I'd still rather have Lester in a big playoff game than Quintana.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  6. #76
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Don't have a title without the first and 4th player you mentioned.

    You must be confused as to what the purpose of constructing a team is.

    So you won in 2016

    and you're still paying for it.

    I'm not the least bit confused. My knowledge of the game is profoundly greater than yours. You are fortunate that I, out of sympathy, acknowledge your presence. I am by far the the most advanced baseball mind on the forums today.

    I have a PHD in sports analytics and data science (all sports).

    I am amazing

  7. #77

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    probably

    I'd still rather have Lester in a big playoff game than Quintana.

    cannot judge a pitcher on 1 game in MLB
    cub pitching coaches with work with quntana this year.. if they can't make him one of the top 5 guys lefties in NL they will dump him on someone else.

  8. #78
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Little Billy, You have yet to demonstrate you even have a fundamental understanding of MLB contracts.

    You called a 20.5 million AAV for Yu Darvish 'impossible to justify.'

    David Price recently got a 31 million AAV contract, to steer you in the right direction.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  9. #79

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    So you won in 2016

    and you're still paying for it.

    I'm not the least bit confused. My knowledge of the game is profoundly greater than yours. You are fortunate that I, out of sympathy, acknowledge your presence. I am by far the the most advanced baseball mind on the forums today.

    I have a PHD in sports analytics and data science (all sports).

    I am amazing


    javy > sink in MLB wide margin
    juvy just under estimates quintaa & over estimates swrber

    sad

  10. #80
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Little Billy, You have yet to demonstrate you even have a fundamental understanding of MLB contracts.

    You called a 20.5 million AAV for Yu Darvish 'impossible to justify.'

    David Price recently got a 31 million AAV contract, to steer you in the right direction.

    My knowledge of the game is profoundly greater than yours. You are fortunate that I, out of sympathy, acknowledge your presence. I am by far the the most advanced baseball mind on the forums today.

    I have a PHD in sports analytics and data science (all sports).

    I am amazing

  11. #81
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Okay so you're now going to spam sports threads with nonsense and not just keep it to spamming political threads with nonsense.

    Great contributor for sure, show us those titties too?
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  12. #82
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Price

    lulzy

    Where's he rank in value metrics

    So there's a dumber GM than Theo



    bweee

  13. #83
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    lol billysink smarter than theo

    Compare their pictures and get a good laugh.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  14. #84
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Okay so you're now going to spam sports threads with nonsense and not just keep it to spamming political threads with nonsense.

    Great contributor for sure, show us those titties too?

    My facts matter.

    Yours

    not so much

  15. #85
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    lol billysink smarter than theo

    Compare their pictures and get a good laugh.
    I'm smarter than everybody.

    Not a lot you can do.


    Bigger, better, smarter, stronger.

    More money.


    It ain't fair really.

  16. #86
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    bigger tittays than kim kardashian too you forgot that one don't sell yourself short
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  17. #87
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    bigger tittays than kim kardashian too you forgot that one don't sell yourself short
    tough to toss 3 plates with bony ribs kid.


    you don't know much about that tho.....


    3 plates

    not too bad for 57 year old hey hobby

    twice your age

  18. #88

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Don't have a title without the first and 4th player you mentioned.

    You must be confused as to what the purpose of constructing a team is.
    Bingo. I'm not sure what point he is trying to prove? That Heyward is overpaid? Yeah, nobody is disputing that. But no WS if no Lester or Zobrist.

  19. #89

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Billy, I thought I'd let Herman Edwards explain it better:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uTLtBGgSAM

  20. #90
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Folks

    I don't care you won in 16

    I can't bet on that.


    thx.

  21. #91

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    sink... go to mora playoffs..... better

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

  22. #92
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Topper here. Just for you


  23. #93
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Folks

    I don't care you won in 16

    I can't bet on that.


    thx.
    Cubs chances of winning it all in 2018 increased yesterday

    so is that not the point?
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  24. #94
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Cubs chances of winning it all in 2018 increased yesterday

    so is that not the point?
    Added half a game to win total. Implied probability (WS) up from 11.1%-12.5% depending on shop.


    I am as excited as the market

  25. #95
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Added half a game to win total. Implied probability (WS) up from 11.1%-12.5% depending on shop.


    I am as excited as the market
    South Point lowered from +900 to +550 today in anticipation of Cub money. Cub fans don’t worry about the market much.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  26. #96
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Added half a game to win total. Implied probability (WS) up from 11.1%-12.5% depending on shop.


    I am as excited as the market
    wrong

    added a couple wins to valuable win total projections.

    now tied with Dodgers at 94
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  27. #97
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    books added half a game and a % and a half

    Clowns did the rest

  28. #98
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    the idea an insanely profitable team like the Cubs shouldn't spend 20.5 million per year on a pitcher like Darvish to increase their odds of winning it all from 11.1% to 12.5% is also insanely stoopid

    personally, I feel he's worth more than 1.4% though... if I had to guess I'd say 3-4%. Considering the nature of baseball, it's worth it lilbilly.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  29. #99
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  30. #100

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    In a league with 20-30+ teams, the chalk will be likely be no shorter than 20% probability. (Golden State need not apply). To asses 3-4% chances variation to a single great player (not franchise player) implies you're having significant math issues.
    If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

  31. #101
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
    In a league with 20-30+ teams, the chalk will be likely be no shorter than 20% probability. (Golden State need not apply). To asses 3-4% chances variation to a single great player (not franchise player) implies you're having significant math issues.
    lol this post only demonstrates you don't know how baseball works.

    8 teams get sure spots in the division round series... this move with Darvish makes it very unlikely the Cubs won't be one of those teams. Even if all 8 teams to make the division round series are equal entirely, each of the 8 teams would have a 12.5% chance to win it all.

    Add in that having 4 great pitchers instead of 3 can severely help you in a playoff series, and also add in the fact that the Cubs now have 4 pitchers projected for 3.2 WAR or above, when the next best team in the NL only has 2 such pitchers, and this move certainly adds a lot more than you think it does to their world series odds.

    Sorry chief.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  32. #102
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    I would expect fangraphs playoff odds would have the Cubs somewhere between 15-20% to win it all when the playoffs start, assuming no significant injuries. The teams with stacked rotations will have higher odds, common sense there.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

  33. #103
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    I would expect fangraphs playoff odds would have the Cubs somewhere between 15-20% to win it all when the playoffs start, assuming no significant injuries. The teams with stacked rotations will have higher odds, common sense there.

    15-20%

    after 162 games

    And 12.5% right now is fair value?



    I just gotta chukkle.


    Kids like you the precise reason I retired @ 52, set for life.

    All smart as fukk just ask them. Piss down their leg every Tuesday.

  34. #104

    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    I would have loved to read the posts if say the Yanks or Dodgers gave this same contract to Darvish... Javy would be ripping the signing... Now since it is the Cubs it is a good signing.

  35. #105
    Kane LOVES handkerchiefs n' pizza JavyBaez9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Yu Darvish playoff choker

    Billy,

    you're a dumb fuck and completely shitting up any hope of intelligent baseball discussion

    Please kindly take your gigantic triple D man titties to another place to troll.

    Thanks pal.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    Go fuck yourself pig, hopefully you catch a bullet one day

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