Westgate SuperContest Week 10
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Thread: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

  1. #1
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    Default Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Week 10

    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2017
    1 SEAHAWKS 5:25 PM 2 CARDINALS* +6
    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2017
    3 VIKINGS 10:00 AM 4 REDSKINS* +1
    5 BEARS* 10:00 AM 6 PACKERS +5.5
    7 STEELERS 10:00 AM 8 COLTS* +10
    9 JAGUARS* 10:00 AM 10 CHARGERS +3.5
    11 JETS 10:00 AM 12 BUCCANEERS* +2.5
    13 TITANS* 10:00 AM 14 BENGALS +4.5
    15 SAINTS 10:00 AM 16 BILLS* +3
    17 LIONS* 10:00 AM 18 BROWNS +12
    19 RAMS* 1:05 PM 20 TEXANS +12
    21 FALCONS* 1:25 PM 22 COWBOYS +3
    23 GIANTS 1:25 PM 24 49ERS* +2.5
    25 PATRIOTS 5:30 PM 26 BRONCOS* +7.5
    MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2017
    27 PANTHERS* 5:30 PM 28 DOLPHINS +9

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Tweet from LVSuperBook@LVSuperBook
    #SuperContest selection update week 10. SC #Seahawks 192 #Cardinals 160. Gold #Seattle 6 #Arizona 8. #tnf

    All selecting the TNF game got a Push.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Another bountiful week for possible stale lines plays, with only 3 of the 12 games lined up on the SuperContest Wednesday number on the Saturday morning SuperBook board.

    The Dread Pirate Roberts’ stale line plays for the current week approaching the 11AM Sat contest close are set forth below, in ranked order (with a last look onsite at 10:35 a.m.).

    I’ve added the Pinnacle juice – all off the same base underlying line number as the contest number this week – on the four otherwise tied plays (by push-rate math) above and below the five cut. It’s very straightforward to apply Crick’s (2W2P2S) Pinny tiebreaker this week, even for a mathematically challenged liberal arts major.

    ATL -3

    JAX -3.5
    CLE +12

    BUF -3 -117
    NYG -2.5 -115

    The “undercard” that didn’t make the five-cut, including the two plays that lost the tie-break:

    DEN +7.5 -114
    NYJ -2.5 -110

    MIN -1
    LAR +12

    For a brief explanation and a link to a longer one, see post #10 in this thread:

    http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php...Contest-Week-2

    Prior Pirate stale lines plays are 24-20-1 YTD, at 54.5% and hypothetically tied at around 445th or so.

    All, unfiltered stale lines plays are at 30-46-3 YTD.

    The "undercard" plays that didn't make the five-cut are 6-26-2 YTD.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Squarepants.....if the LAR were +12 would that be the largest selected side in the history of the supercontest?

    Just messing with ya!

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Oops, thanks, LOL, yeah that would trump IND last week.

    So, yeah, LAR -12. Maybe that's why I'm in the pack and not in the lead . . . .
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Dave Tuley‏Verified account @ViewFromVegas

    I’m heading over to @LVSuperBook to do #SuperContest consensus report w/ @vegasmurray (@mattyoumans247 & @meJVT in @VSiNLive studio) on SiriusXM 204, http://vsin.com & VSiN app (3 p.m. ET/noon PT...replay 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT)
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    SuperContest Classic consensus numbers, via VSiN:

    BUF 1182
    JAX 719
    WAS 703
    LAR 697
    NYJ 666

    LAC 657
    ATL 645
    MIN 639
    DAL 631
    NE 578
    CLE 512
    CHI 509
    MIA 509
    TB 457
    PIT 451
    IND 430
    TEN 397
    NO 388
    NYG 371
    DEN 369
    GB 353
    SF 315
    CIN 311
    DET 276
    HOU 256
    SEA 192
    CAR 162
    ARI 160

    KC 0
    PHI 0
    OAK 0
    BAL 0
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Gold consensus, via VSiN:

    BUF 44
    CLE 27
    ATL 26
    DEN 25
    JAX 25

    MIN 25
    TB 23
    WAS 23
    GB 21
    HOU 21
    IND 16
    PIT 16
    LAC 15
    NYJ 15
    SF 14
    CHI 14
    MIA 13
    NYG 12
    LAR 12
    CIN 11
    NE 11
    TEN 11
    NO 9
    ARI 8
    DAL 8
    CAR 7
    SEA 6
    DET 2

    KC 0
    PHI 0
    OAK 0
    BAL 0
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Classic/Gold Top 5 Consensus Convergence: BUF JAX

    Divergence: None.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Well, I sincerely hope that the Gold Top 5 Consensus goes 5-0:

    SQUAREPANTS JAX BUF CLE ATL DEN
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Squarepants View Post

    . . . . .

    BUF -3 -117

    . . . . .
    Geez, you'd think I'd been fighting off a head cold all week or something.

    BUF +3 -117
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Leaders picks:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5

    BIOSOFT GLOBAL 31 12 2 32.0 NYJ TEN NYG NE CAR

    BIOSOFT SPORTS 31 13 1 31.5 CHI TEN NO DET NE

    GRANNYS BOY 30 14 1 30.5 SEA MIN LAC TB TEN
    4THEBYRDS 30 14 1 30.5 WAS TEN BUF CLE ATL

    TAPPAKEGGAODO 29 14 2 30.0 WAS IND JAX NO NE
    GRAND DRAGON 30 15 0 30.0 MIN CHI IND NYJ LAR
    PHD SPORTS 30 15 0 30.0 WAS PIT NO HOU DEN
    THE VILLE 30 15 0 30.0 MIN PIT LAC TEN BUF

    BETTER THAN LOSING 29 15 1 29.5 PIT NYJ NO LAR NYG
    HOT DOG 29 15 1 29.5 IND CIN SF DEN MIA
    PROFESSOR PHILLY 29 15 1 29.5 JAX BUF CLE LAR DAL

    WINSTON PLATINUM 27 14 4 29.0 MIN PIT TB TEN ATL
    NORTHERN STUPOR 28 15 2 29.0 CHI PIT JAX DAL SF
    HOWDOIPLAY XX 28 15 2 29.0 CHI NYJ NO ATL NE
    TEAM 1482 28 15 2 29.0 MIN NYJ BUF DET NE
    BETTORLIFE 28 15 2 29.0 TB BUF DAL NE MIA
    BOSSA NOVA KID 28 15 2 29.0 WAS GB JAX BUF MIA
    DTOWN1 28 15 2 29.0 SEA JAX NYJ NO LAR
    THE REAL KOBE BEEF 28 15 2 29.0 JAX BUF CLE NYG DEN
    SEOUL CYCLE 28 15 2 29.0 IND TB CIN BUF ATL
    @GRAYSUITPROJECT 29 16 0 29.0 PIT LAC BUF ATL NYG
    TUNNEL VISION 29 16 0 29.0 LAC TB CLE HOU MIA
    FLI 2 29 16 0 29.0 MIN CIN CLE ATL DEN
    MR. DO 29 16 0 29.0 PIT JAX NYJ LAR DEN
    TIMOTHY BILLOW 29 16 0 29.0 LAC TB CIN BUF DEN
    ACCORSI 29 16 0 29.0 PIT JAX CIN HOU DAL
    GOLFAHOLICS 29 16 0 29.0 LAC DAL NYG NE CAR
    CLEVTA 29 16 0 29.0 WAS CIN BUF CLE ATL

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    GOLD leaders picks:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5

    BKSF 27 13 0 27.0 MIN CIN CLE ATL DEN

    JOHN_MERLYN 24 14 2 25.0 MIN GB JAX CIN DEN

    BERT EMANUEL RULE 24 15 1 24.5 PIT LAC CIN CLE DEN

    TRUSTED LINK SPORTS 23 15 2 24.0 PIT BUF ATL DEN CAR

    BENSON 23 16 1 23.5 GB TB CLE HOU NYG
    MICHAEL PEFFERCORN 23 16 1 23.5 JAX NYJ NO LAR NE
    BRETTFAVRE444 23 16 1 23.5 GB TB CLE ATL DEN

    BETTER ODDS 22 16 2 23.0 SEA GB PIT LAC BUF
    MWBALL 23 17 0 23.0 JAX NYJ TEN SF MIA
    TENNESSEE CHARLIE 2 23 17 0 23.0 WAS PIT NO HOU DEN

    KJSPARTAN1 22 17 1 22.5 WAS GB BUF ATL SF
    CALABASAS WISE GUY 22 17 1 22.5 ARI WAS GB LAC MIA
    LORENZO 22 17 1 22.5 MIN TB LAR NYG DEN
    LVSPORTS 22 17 1 22.5 ARI MIN LAC HOU ATL

    COOL HAND LUKE 21 17 2 22.0 WAS GB BUF ATL SF
    WET TIE 21 17 2 22.0 ARI MIN GB DAL MIA
    3DOG20 21 17 2 22.0 WAS IND TB CLE HOU
    INSUFFERABLE 21 17 2 22.0 IND JAX CLE NYG DEN
    MIDWEST SQUARE 21 17 2 22.0 MIN PIT TB CLE DEN
    PUFFALUPPS 22 18 0 22.0 WAS JAX NYJ BUF NE
    INSIDER TRADING #3 22 18 0 22.0 GB CIN BUF HOU MIA
    JOHN DOE #69 22 18 0 22.0 IND TEN CLE ATL DEN
    VEGASPORTSLINE2.COM 22 18 0 22.0 CHI PIT JAX NYJ BUF

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Corrected records, previous post had Week 8 records. Thanks to Squarepants for noticing.

    GOLD leaders picks:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4 Pick 5

    BKSF 30 15 0 30.0 MIN CIN CLE ATL DEN

    MICHAEL PEFFERCORN 27 17 1 27.5 JAX NYJ NO LAR NE
    MWBALL 27 17 1 27.5 JAX NYJ TEN SF MIA

    JOHN_MERLYN 26 17 2 27.0 MIN GB JAX CIN DEN
    TRUSTED LINK SPORTS 26 17 2 27.0 PIT BUF ATL DEN CAR

    BERT EMANUEL RULE 26 18 1 26.5 PIT LAC CIN CLE DEN
    BRETTFAVRE444 26 18 1 26.5 GB TB CLE ATL DEN

    KJSPARTAN1 25 18 2 26.0 WAS GB BUF ATL SF
    3DOG20 25 18 2 26.0 WAS IND TB CLE HOU
    LVSPORTS 25 18 2 26.0 ARI MIN LAC HOU ATL
    ERNIE MCCRACKEN 1 26 19 0 26.0 MIN PIT BUF DAL DEN

    BETTER ODDS 24 18 3 25.5 SEA GB PIT LAC BUF
    BENSON 25 19 1 25.5 GB TB CLE HOU NYG
    PUFFALUPPS 25 19 1 25.5 WAS JAX NYJ BUF NE
    LORENZO 25 19 1 25.5 MIN TB LAR NYG DEN

    MIDWEST SQUARE 24 19 2 25.0 MIN PIT TB CLE DEN
    JOHN DOE #69 25 20 0 25.0 IND TEN CLE ATL DEN
    TENNESSEE CHARLIE 2 25 20 0 25.0 WAS PIT NO HOU DEN
    BOMBER 25 20 0 25.0 ARI WAS JAX BUF DAL

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    EOG, well-known cappers, et al
    Place Alias Pick 1 2 3 4 5 W L T Pts

    140 SQUAREPANTS JAX BUF CLE ATL DEN 26 18 1 26.5
    140 COBYDUBOSE ARI MIN JAX NO ATL 26 18 1 26.5

    201 ERSPORTS MIN PIT BUF CLE DEN 25 18 2 26

    350 JARHEAD GB JAX NO LAR DAL 24 19 2 25
    445 VSiN 2 NYJ TEN BUF DET LAR 24 20 1 24.5
    563 CH BALLERS GB LAC BUF DEN MIA 24 21 0 24
    563 MAINEHTRAIN CHI BUF LAR ATL NYG 23 20 2 24

    713 SANS SOUCI WAS GB JAX CLE MIA 23 21 1 23.5

    858 VEGASPORTSLINE.COM CHI PIT JAX NYJ BUF 23 22 0 23
    858 KELLYINVEGAS MIN GB BUF CLE ATL 22 21 2 23

    1340 3POINTDOG MIN LAC NYJ BUF ATL 21 23 1 21.5
    1524 ROUGHRIDER39 IND TB BUF CLE HOU 20 23 2 21
    1690 EOG.COM GB LAC ATL NYG DEN 20 24 1 20.5

    2148 VSiN 1 GB IND JAX BUF DET 19 26 0 19

  16. #16
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Place GOLD members of EOG et al, Picks Pts

    20 EL CHINGON NYJ TEN CLE LAR NYG 23 19 3 24.5

    28 VEGASPORTSLINE2.COM CHI PIT JAX NYJ BUF 23 22 0 23
    28 WISKY MIN NYJ TEN BUF LAR 23 22 0 23
    28 TOOFDOC1 MIN BUF ATL DEN MIA 22 21 2 23

    39 RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS MIN GB JAX CIN ATL 21 22 2 22
    39 RICHARD STAND GB JAX TB CLE HOU 22 23 0 22

    59 LW MCQUAID IND TB BUF CLE HOU 19 23 3 20.5
    67 MUCKED NUTS1 MIN JAX BUF NYG DEN 20 25 0 20
    85 FRANK B GB IND BUF CLE MIA 17 26 2 18

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Tough day on the course for our favorite Scot.

    Rough to rough and then bunker to bunker.

    The kind of day that will get your crew muttering.

    Winding up with a dreaded (pun intended) double bogey on the 10th hole, at 1-4 for the day, and 25-24-1 YTD.

    Math’s not looking good for this hypothetical mechanical stale lines entry to win or cash, with the winner likely to hit in the 57 to 59 range this year.

    All, unfiltered stale lines plays went 3-6 for the day, for 33-52-3 YTD.

    The undercard of plays that didn’t make the five-cut went 2-2 today, for 8-28-2 YTD.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Leaders going into MNF:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points Pick W L T

    BIOSOFT SPORTS 34 15 1 34.5 3 2 0

    GRANNYS BOY 33 15 2 34.0 3 1 1

    VEGASWEHAVEAPROBLEM4 33 16 1 33.5 5 0 0

    BIOSOFT GLOBAL 32 15 2 33.0 CAR 1 3 0
    SEOUL CYCLE 32 16 2 33.0 4 1 0
    TAPPAKEGGAODO 32 16 2 33.0 3 2 0
    GRAND DRAGON 33 17 0 33.0 3 2 0

    HOT DOG 32 16 1 32.5 MIA 3 1 0
    ANGEL OF VENGEANCE 32 17 1 32.5 5 0 0
    SCHEMATIC ADVANTAGE 32 17 1 32.5 4 1 0

    WINSTON PLATINUM 30 16 4 32.0 3 2 0
    HOWDOIPLAY XX 31 17 2 32.0 3 2 0
    TEAM 1482 31 17 2 32.0 3 2 0
    CHAMPIONS ONLY 32 18 0 32.0 4 1 0
    FLI 2 32 18 0 32.0 3 2 0
    HELMETSHOULDERMYPADS 32 18 0 32.0 4 1 0
    THE VILLE 32 18 0 32.0 2 3 0
    TIMOTHY BILLOW 32 18 0 32.0 3 2 0

    CAP_NOMO326 31 17 1 31.5 MIA 3 1 0
    THE CANDIOTTI MAN 31 17 1 31.5 MIA 3 1 0

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    GOLD leaders going into MNF:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points Pick W L T

    BKSF 33 17 0 33.0 3 2 0

    MICHAEL PEFFERCORN 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0

    JOHN_MERLYN 29 19 2 30.0 3 2 0

    LVSPORTS 28 19 3 29.5 3 1 1
    BRETTFAVRE444 29 20 1 29.5 3 2 0

    KJSPARTAN1 28 20 2 29.0 3 2 0

    MWBALL 28 20 1 28.5 MIA 1 3 0
    BERT EMANUEL RULE 28 21 1 28.5 2 3 0
    LORENZO 28 21 1 28.5 3 2 0

    TRUSTED LINK SPORTS 27 20 2 28.0 CAR 1 3 0
    BETTER ODDS 26 20 4 28.0 2 2 1
    3DOG20 27 21 2 28.0 2 3 0

    BENSON 27 22 1 27.5 2 3 0

    CALABASAS WISE GUY 26 21 2 27.0 MIA 2 1 1
    MIDWEST SQUARE 26 22 2 27.0 2 3 0
    ERNIE MCCRACKEN 1 27 23 0 27.0 1 4 0
    JOHN DOE #69 27 23 0 27.0 2 3 0

  20. #20

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    It took a blocked extra point to end the Thursday night magic for me, but I'll take 3-1-1 on a week in which lots of people struggled.

    Currently at 30 points and happy to have clipped one win off of the leader this week. I am within striking distance, but still haven't gotten the sort of white hot run you need to win this thing. My biggest strength thus far has been the ability to consistently win the week. Only three losing weeks, and all have been at 2-3. Avoiding the nightmare week has kept me close.

    As an aside, one of the leaders plays in my very small underground poker game in Houston (Vegaswehaveaproblem). Probably 20-25 consistent players in this game, and the two of us are near the top of the contest. I didn't realize he was in it until this week.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Leaders after Week 10:

    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points W L T Proj. Prize Money

    BIOSOFT SPORTS 34 15 1 34.5 3 2 0 $1,327,284.00

    BIOSOFT GLOBAL 33 15 2 34.0 2 3 0 $398,185.20
    GRANNYS BOY 33 15 2 34.0 3 1 1 $398,185.20

    VEGASWEHAVEAPROBLEM4 33 16 1 33.5 5 0 0 $189,612.00

    SEOUL CYCLE 32 16 2 33.0 4 1 0 $151,689.60
    TAPPAKEGGAODO 32 16 2 33.0 3 2 0 $151,689.60
    GRAND DRAGON 33 17 0 33.0 3 2 0 $151,689.60

    ANGEL OF VENGEANCE 32 17 1 32.5 5 0 0 $104,286.60
    HOT DOG 32 17 1 32.5 3 2 0 $104,286.60
    SCHEMATIC ADVANTAGE 32 17 1 32.5 4 1 0 $104,286.60

    WINSTON PLATINUM 30 16 4 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68
    HOWDOIPLAY XX 31 17 2 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68
    POLECATT711 31 17 2 32.0 4 1 0 $39,249.68
    TEAM 1482 31 17 2 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68
    CHAMPIONS ONLY 32 18 0 32.0 4 1 0 $39,249.68
    FLI 2 32 18 0 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68
    GOLFAHOLICS 32 18 0 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68
    HELMETSHOULDERMYPADS 32 18 0 32.0 4 1 0 $39,249.68
    THE VILLE 32 18 0 32.0 2 3 0 $39,249.68
    TIMOTHY BILLOW 32 18 0 32.0 3 2 0 $39,249.68

    ALPHAGOLDENPIG 30 17 3 31.5 3 1 1 $17,926.95
    DTOWN1 30 17 3 31.5 2 2 1 $17,926.95
    TRUEHITT 30 17 3 31.5 3 2 0 $17,926.95
    3TIMECHRM 31 18 1 31.5 4 1 0 $17,926.95
    4THEBYRDS 31 18 1 31.5 1 4 0 $17,926.95
    BETTER THAN LOSING 31 18 1 31.5 2 3 0 $17,926.95
    CAP_NOMO326 31 18 1 31.5 3 2 0 $17,926.95
    K J E 31 18 1 31.5 3 2 0 $17,926.95
    PONYTAIL DAVE 31 18 1 31.5 3 2 0 $17,926.95
    PSYCHOLOGY 31 18 1 31.5 4 0 1 $17,926.95
    THE CANDIOTTI MAN 31 18 1 31.5 3 2 0 $17,926.95

    BETTORLIFE 30 18 2 31.0 2 3 0 $8,273.98
    COACH ROB 2 30 18 2 31.0 3 2 0 $8,273.98
    DK VEGAS 30 18 2 31.0 3 2 0 $8,273.98
    KIVLEHAN 30 18 2 31.0 2 2 1 $8,273.98
    RILEY WADE HAGGARD 30 18 2 31.0 4 1 0 $8,273.98
    VOLARE CIECO 30 18 2 31.0 4 1 0 $8,273.98
    @GRAYSUITPROJECT 31 19 0 31.0 2 3 0 $8,273.98
    CLEVTA 31 19 0 31.0 2 3 0 $8,273.98
    GUNNER 31 19 0 31.0 3 2 0 $8,273.98
    PHD SPORTS 31 19 0 31.0 1 4 0 $8,273.98
    TUNNEL VISION 31 19 0 31.0 2 3 0 $8,273.98

    ACTION 2 29 18 3 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    DURBIFY 29 18 3 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    GOLDEN SOUL 29 18 3 30.5 2 3 0 $1,213.52
    JSMS 29 18 3 30.5 3 1 1 $1,213.52
    OMAR 29 18 3 30.5 3 1 1 $1,213.52
    REDROCKINGE 29 18 3 30.5 2 3 0 $1,213.52
    #PUBLICENEMY#1 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    7 SHOTS 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    BLUEHORSESHOE 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    BMONEY 30 19 1 30.5 2 3 0 $1,213.52
    CTSSAMMIE 30 19 1 30.5 2 3 0 $1,213.52
    CUB856 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    DONTYOUGODYINONME 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    DRAGON SLAYER 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    FERAL CHILD 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    JWADD 30 19 1 30.5 5 0 0 $1,213.52
    MICHAEL PALLEDOROUS 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    ONO 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    PEANUT GALLERY 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    PRO CONSULTING 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    PROFESSOR PHILLY 30 19 1 30.5 1 4 0 $1,213.52
    RAMROD1 30 19 1 30.5 4 1 0 $1,213.52
    RIP BORT 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    RYAN HOJO 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0 $1,213.52
    VEGASWEHAVEAPROBLEM3 30 19 1 30.5 2 3 0 $1,213.52

  22. #22

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Tie for 50th and lose money when talking about the entry and the handlers fee? Yes there is time yet. Just find this a bit funny.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    GOLD leaders after Week 10:
    Alias Wins Losses Pushes Points W L T

    BKSF 33 17 0 33.0 3 2 0

    MICHAEL PEFFERCORN 30 19 1 30.5 3 2 0

    JOHN_MERLYN 29 19 2 30.0 3 2 0

    LVSPORTS 28 19 3 29.5 3 1 1
    BRETTFAVRE444 29 20 1 29.5 3 2 0

    KJSPARTAN1 28 20 2 29.0 3 2 0
    TRUSTED LINK SPORTS 28 20 2 29.0 2 3 0

    BERT EMANUEL RULE 28 21 1 28.5 2 3 0
    LORENZO 28 21 1 28.5 3 2 0
    MWBALL 28 21 1 28.5 1 4 0

    BETTER ODDS 26 20 4 28.0 2 2 1
    3DOG20 27 21 2 28.0 2 3 0

    BENSON 27 22 1 27.5 2 3 0

    CALABASAS WISE GUY 26 22 2 27.0 2 2 1
    MIDWEST SQUARE 26 22 2 27.0 2 3 0
    ERNIE MCCRACKEN 1 27 23 0 27.0 1 4 0
    JOHN DOE #69 27 23 0 27.0 2 3 0

    INSIDER TRADING #3 26 23 1 26.5 2 3 0
    KEVS PICKS 26 23 1 26.5 3 2 0
    PUFFALUPPS 26 23 1 26.5 1 4 0

    COOL HAND LUKE 25 23 2 26.0 3 2 0
    GALT HANK 25 23 2 26.0 2 3 0
    RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS 25 23 2 26.0 4 1 0
    TENNESSEE CHARLIE 2 26 24 0 26.0 1 4 0

  24. #24

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Seems like the leaders are closer to a realistic winning percentage instead of the upper 70's that we have seen in the past.

    So is it easy to assume that these computer guys are one hit wonders? Where is that David Fron Lane guy this year? Fezzik? Past winners?

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    the contest is often criticized, stale numbers noise...bottom line it ain't easy to win it...

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Sportsrmylife View Post
    Tie for 50th and lose money when talking about the entry and the handlers fee? Yes there is time yet. Just find this a bit funny.
    Hopefully, the herd at the top will thin a bit and those numbers will go up.

    But this is why I've resisted kneejerk calls to expand the number of entries that cash simply because the field has gotten larger.

    During the past two 50-cut years, the contest paid only $2,989.05 and $2,217.35 at the bottom end with ties, at least according to the SuperBook's historical summary.

    The payout at the money cut needs to be consistently at or above 5K before further change is considered, in my opinion at least.

    Some folks apparently get a charge out of putting in their twitter profile that they cashed in the SuperContest, but that doesn't do it for me. I don't like to see the higher top-end payouts diluted only to produce a boatload of piddling payouts at the bottom end.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  27. #27
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Sportsrmylife View Post
    Seems like the leaders are closer to a realistic winning percentage instead of the upper 70's that we have seen in the past.

    So is it easy to assume that these computer guys are one hit wonders? Where is that David Fron Lane guy this year? Fezzik? Past winners?
    Yep, there may be a mathematical correlation between larger fields and higher winning scores, but there still isn't a lockstep correlation where each year that we have a record field we get a record or super high winning score.

    And I'm fairly sure that mechanically fading the prior year's winner would be profitable in more years over the last quarter century plus of the contest than mechanically following the LY winner.

    As an example, last year's winner's two entries are at 21-29 (T2209 or so) and 19-31 (T2529 or so).

    Winners who immediately try to go tout make a good business decision -- at least in terms of trying to parlay their maximum likely marketing edge from a SuperContest win.

    Bettors who buy their service? Not so much. (But, then again, those who pay for picks generally should be used to making bad sports betting business decisions.)
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by alfie View Post
    the contest is often criticized, stale numbers noise...bottom line it ain't easy to win it...
    Got that right, alfie. Everyone is playing against the same lines, and to the extent that playing stale lines provides a mathematical edge as against later-week market numbers, that "secret to success" is fairly widely known. Finishing a half pick behind the money cut pays exactly the same as finishing 2748th, so one can beat a lot of less savvy players with, e.g., stale lines play, and still have exactly nothing.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

  29. #29
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Sportsrmylife View Post
    Seems like the leaders are closer to a realistic winning percentage instead of the upper 70's that we have seen in the past.

    So is it easy to assume that these computer guys are one hit wonders? Where is that David Fron Lane guy this year? Fezzik? Past winners?
    There has only been one winner at greater than 72.5% (CH BALLERS, 76.2%, 2014). Luck over skill is by far the most important element in any one person actually winning the Westgate. However, there is a large population of dead money as shown by the pathetic overall W/L record. Good or excellent cappers have a significant advantage, but variance rules the contest. For example, Fezzik hasn't come close to cashing since winning in 2008 and 2009, going 369-369-27 (w/ 2 entries the last 2 years).

    Quote Originally Posted by alfie View Post
    the contest is often criticized, stale numbers noise...bottom line it ain't easy to win it...
    Even as a good or excellent capper, its a long shot to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Squarepants View Post
    Hopefully, the herd at the top will thin a bit and those numbers will go up.

    But this is why I've resisted kneejerk calls to expand the number of entries that cash simply because the field has gotten larger.

    During the past two 50-cut years, the contest paid only $2,989.05 and $2,217.35 at the bottom end with ties, at least according to the SuperBook's historical summary.

    The payout at the money cut needs to be consistently at or above 5K before further change is considered, in my opinion at least.

    Some folks apparently get a charge out of putting in their twitter profile that they cashed in the SuperContest, but that doesn't do it for me. I don't like to see the higher top-end payouts diluted only to produce a boatload of piddling payouts at the bottom end.
    42nd to 50th place each pays 0.1% of total payout or $3,792 this year, a trivial dilution of the top-end payouts. Even eliminating 30th to 50th place "saves" roughly $133k, much less than half the 8% rake, and a very small effect on top-end payouts.

  30. #30

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    The payout needs a restructure. While it's cool to have over a million dollar prize finishing in 50th and making a few hundred is brutal. A 7500 min cash would be a nice touch. Plus this isn't getting smaller. 3000 entries next year is possible. You can still have your huge top prize while allowing people who finish in the 1.7% range to make it worth it. I don't want a 20% paid out field like a poker tourney either though. Just stating the numbers can be reworked.

  31. #31

    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    I'll let you know how I feel about the payout structure depending on what happens to my 68th place entry over the next 7 weeks.

  32. #32
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by ComptrBob View Post

    . . . .

    42nd to 50th place each pays 0.1% of total payout or $3,792 this year, a trivial dilution of the top-end payouts. Even eliminating 30th to 50th place "saves" roughly $133k, much less than half the 8% rake, and a very small effect on top-end payouts.
    So, I'm supposed to like something because it costs less than half of something else that I don't like?

    Sorry, my 'druthers (a distinctly Southern contraction of "would rather") don't work that way. : ^ )

    Call me when the actual money cut payouts, with ties, get to 5K.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Squarepants View Post
    So, I'm supposed to like something because it costs less than half of something else that I don't like?

    Sorry, my 'druthers (a distinctly Southern contraction of "would rather") don't work that way. : ^ )

    Call me when the actual money cut payouts, with ties, get to 5K.
    Yeah, whine about some poor slobs who just get their entry fee back (hitting around 60% winners incidentally), while you and all the other entrants get fucked over by the Westgate rake which is over ten times more than the 50th place and ties.

    Makes perfect sense.

    Oh and what is that $330k rake used for? Good question. Your darling assholes at the Westgate haven't even posted Week 10 standings over 24 hours after MNF.

  34. #34
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    Default Re: Westgate SuperContest Week 10

    Yep, I didn't favor the rake either.

    So if not favoring the rake and further dilution of the prize pool at this point is whining, fine, I'm whining about both of them.

    Since I don't favor either, it's just not persuasive to me to point to the rake when I say I don't favor further dilution of the prize pool at this point.

    Not in favor of either one.

    Heck, I love the Gold prize, 0% rake and 100% payout to a single winner. In the end there can be only one. If you hit 60% playing against Wednesday's numbers on Saturday morning, cool, here's some ice cream and a participation trophy.

    It's just my preference in contests to have larger prizes rather than a multitude of piddling payouts, even when I cash as to the latter.

    And that's unfortunate about the delay in the Week 10 standings being posted, but that also doesn't lead to me having a different preference on contest prize payouts.

    Look, if they dilute the payouts further, it won't be the end of the world. And I appreciate what you do in these threads.

    But that's my preference on prize payouts.
    Never confuse price with value, consensus with wisdom, or conformity with courage.

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