Talk me out of it
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 35 of 53

Thread: Talk me out of it

  1. #1

    Default Talk me out of it

    Why wouldnt I lay -400 on the indians to win the central? Im not going to go into a ton of detail but I had planned on having to lay 650-800. Ive never seen a division in MLB as long as Ive been betting it that has 3 teams that might struggle to win 70 games all in the same division. Royals, tigers and white sox on paper look to be dumpster fires.
    Its priced low enough to give me pause. Its like week 2 of a season and you make a total 62 and it opens 49.. wtf did I miss here?!
    Minnesota is the only threat but no Santana for 3 months, berrios was not to be trusted last year. Even if they grab Arrieta they still have the #26 Projected bullpen and are hoping to rotate in some of their prospects throughout the season.

    Anyone object? State why please before I tie up 4 (im shy with my bet size in mlb) units until October.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    no.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I would buy bitcoin before I lay -400 on anything, 25 pct interest on 8 months no thanks.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    PECOTA projects the Indians will win the AL Central by 16 games.

    The only possible snag: The curse of Chief Wahoo.

  5. #5
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 24, 2008
    Location
    Bridgman, Michigan, United States
    Posts
    14,399

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    If you were playing that -400, I would wait until after Arrieta signs, Minn is one of the teams he may go to. In that case, you can get a little better price on Cle if he signs with Minn.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Looking at last year, Indians could take the first half off like the Cubs did because you better believe that Cleveland clubhouse is going to know they're all but sure to get a spot in the final 8. That'll make you sweat, but it's a long season, the cream usually rises to the top after 162.
    Cubs win it all

  7. #7

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I remember the bizarre scene early last season at Wrigley Field when some of the Cub players made their way through the bleachers to raise the World Series flag.

    Seemed odd and you could tell there would be a different feel for the defending champs in 2017.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I see no upside to anyone on the Twins roster other than Buxton. Santana is hurt, Miguel Sano got his leg rebuilt with titanium, Fernando Rodney is 62 years old and Phillip Hughes is gonna pitch every 5 days until someone beaks him with a 250 mph line drive.

    Spend your money, think I'll join you.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Astros
    Indians
    Yankees

    Red Sox
    Angels

    Nationals
    Cubs
    Dodgers

    Diamondbacks
    Cardinals
    Cubs win it all

  10. #10

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    laying -400 to wait 8 months for a decision? There are -300 to -450 during the season get results in 3 hours and you have the lineups!

    kershaw opened at cris -360 & CGT opened at -410 same game vs padres opening game.....kershaw/dodgers win 14-3 in 3 hours ...closing line at south point -350...

    too much energy wasted on a few bets 8 months from now..... zone in more on march and april could be up more

  11. #11

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    another note... rather look for the new cat that is hiding in the bushes in april .......meaning the month of april is the best time for prices on dogs before everybody turns them into favorites.

  12. #12
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 24, 2008
    Location
    Bridgman, Michigan, United States
    Posts
    14,399

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    another note... rather look for the new cat that is hiding in the bushes in april .......meaning the month of april is the best time for prices on dogs before everybody turns them into favorites.
    Agree.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    laying -400 to wait 8 months for a decision? There are -300 to -450 during the season get results in 3 hours and you have the lineups!

    kershaw opened at cris -360 & CGT opened at -410 same game vs padres opening game.....kershaw/dodgers win 14-3 in 3 hours ...closing line at south point -350...

    too much energy wasted on a few bets 8 months from now..... zone in more on march and april could be up more

    You don't see more volatility in a single game scenario than a dominant team over a season?

    You'd have to scramble to get enough money down on Cleveland without dropping the price. Certainly not the kind of money worth worrying about being tied up.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I bit on astros-160 to win the AL west.

    Im not high on dodgers/dbacks as I thought Id be. Thats a extremely competitive division.
    Cubs feel priced right where I assumed after Darvish signjng. Also a good division. Not a buyer of yankees their D metrics dont pan out well theyll need to stay healthy and hit for power consistently hard to predict both easily. My sox unless they sign a big FA are powerless and that bullpen outside of closer is awful also think Pomerantz regresses.

    I actually am looking to back Toronto as dogs if Guerrero/bichette show me something and Tulo could actually play even 115 games. They lose Bautista which is a huge + in my eyes. Not for the division but 79 wins will see you ahead at the end of the season I believe. Baltimore is a garage sale at asb. Expect jones and machado to go.

    Washington priced-60 to -80 seemed low to me but they are one elbow away from having basically 4 #4s in their rotation and have done next to nothing to make me believe that bullpen is any better. I dont mind the thought of laying 60 and then betting under 94 rsws that division is awful although phils and mets are improved some in my eyes.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    You don't see more volatility in a single game scenario than a dominant team over a season?

    You'd have to scramble to get enough money down on Cleveland without dropping the price. Certainly not the kind of money worth worrying about being tied up.


    i never said that.... i am just stating the odds if milkshake is in love betting big odds with same return..... I subscribed to don best more than 20 yrs and moved some money in my day in baseball and know odds move.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    i never said that.... i am just stating the odds if milkshake is in love betting big odds with same return..... I subscribed to don best more than 20 yrs and moved some money in my day in baseball and know odds move.

    Certainly not questioning your credibility.

    Simple question.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by Drnkyourmlkshk View Post
    I bit on astros-160 to win the AL west.

    Im not high on dodgers/dbacks as I thought Id be. Thats a extremely competitive division.
    Cubs feel priced right where I assumed after Darvish signjng. Also a good division. Not a buyer of yankees their D metrics dont pan out well theyll need to stay healthy and hit for power consistently hard to predict both easily. My sox unless they sign a big FA are powerless and that bullpen outside of closer is awful also think Pomerantz regresses.

    I actually am looking to back Toronto as dogs if Guerrero/bichette show me something and Tulo could actually play even 115 games. They lose Bautista which is a huge + in my eyes. Not for the division but 79 wins will see you ahead at the end of the season I believe. Baltimore is a garage sale at asb. Expect jones and machado to go.

    Washington priced-60 to -80 seemed low to me but they are one elbow away from having basically 4 #4s in their rotation and have done next to nothing to make me believe that bullpen is any better. I dont mind the thought of laying 60 and then betting under 94 rsws that division is awful although phils and mets are improved some in my eyes.
    I am looking to that division for an underdog but I have plenty of time.

  18. #18
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 24, 2008
    Location
    Bridgman, Michigan, United States
    Posts
    14,399

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I am looking to that division for an underdog but I have plenty of time.
    I would like to think the Angels are that dog. A little surprised they didn’t go after Arrieta or JD Martinez.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Certainly not questioning your credibility.

    Simple question.

    no prob. But looking for a winner in september takes a while to cash. Easier if one has a good understanding like milkshake in baseball ( which I don't ) would be better to focus on april where the most units can be made on underdogs. More money could be bet on regular season MLB game (more games )than a few win totals in feb/march Read up and slam it in april if his numbers are good. what if the first 3 starters get hurt??? look at the mets last year

  20. #20
    EOG Dedicated
    Join Date
    Jun 01, 2006
    Location
    jersey
    Posts
    6,419

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I'm going to call Gyno right now and see what he would do

  21. #21

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    I would like to think the Angels are that dog. A little surprised they didn’t go after Arrieta or JD Martinez.
    80-82 Pecota projection for Scioscia's club

  22. #22
    EOG Dedicated
    Join Date
    Oct 05, 2006
    Location
    Marietta, Georgia
    Posts
    3,925

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    I would buy bitcoin before I lay -400 on anything, 25 pct interest on 8 months no thanks.
    Not my kind of bet but, 25% in 8 months sounds pretty good to me.

  23. #23

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    I do a lot of self evaluation whenever I lose. I keep insanely accurate records and track every bet I make along with CLV and usually a note prior to why I liked the wager. Mostly so I can wipe the tears away and laugh at myself when writing checks for losses.
    I had a huge MLB season in 2016 and a bad MLB season (-12.9 units over 490 wagers never ahead by more than 3 units in a entire season) and I found my biggest error..
    I hate to lay prices. Dog, rL dog+ and totals has always been my thought process. Somewhere along the lines I decided taking +115 when I made it +105 was far more +ev large sample rather than laying 55 when i made it 80. I have no idea why. When looking at last yrs game notes (yes theres a stupid notebook) many times Id see (-170) opened -145 in april and May (which btw was a horror show for us dog bettors in 16' hopefully just a anomoly) and Id have no bet. So new goal of 17 is find value where it lies.
    What would you make the Indians? I made them -750 and thought I was being mildly conservative. Im still trying to discover if theres anything Im missing other than tying up money for 6 months is -ev when you could just bet Kluber -360 mid July vs. A KC, Det, Chw #5 & a AAA lineup or all 3 starters could go down.. so could any of the above teams. I still might and could have the opportunity to bet Kluber mid July.

  24. #24

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    yes value is value


    many variables in 8 months too

  25. #25
    EOG Dedicated Screw Andrews's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 12, 2015
    Location
    St. Luke's
    Posts
    2,043

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by fifty cint View Post
    I'm going to call Gyno right now and see what he would do
    You friend can't lose....bet goes bad nbd....got to talk to one of the greatest....the champ!!
    When you're winning stack up, when you're losing back up....
    Gabe if you're not going to post ALL your plays on the website why not post them ALL in ONE thread and let people know where that is?

  26. #26

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    minnesota & braves finished in last place...next year were in WS together. yes yes less playoff games blah blah blah




  27. #27

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    PECOTA projects the Indians will win the AL Central by 16 games.

    The only possible snag: The curse of Chief Wahoo.




    baseball prospectus has indians and astros to win division by 16 games

    betOnline has cleveland -400 to win division
    betOnline has astros -160 to win division


    I guess no changes in baseball prospectus to their prediction ?

  28. #28

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    San Diego o69.5

    done.

  29. #29

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by Drnkyourmlkshk View Post
    I bit on astros-160 to win the AL west.

    Im not high on dodgers/dbacks as I thought Id be. Thats a extremely competitive division.
    Cubs feel priced right where I assumed after Darvish signjng. Also a good division. Not a buyer of yankees their D metrics dont pan out well theyll need to stay healthy and hit for power consistently hard to predict both easily. My sox unless they sign a big FA are powerless and that bullpen outside of closer is awful also think Pomerantz regresses.

    I actually am looking to back Toronto as dogs if Guerrero/bichette show me something and Tulo could actually play even 115 games. They lose Bautista which is a huge + in my eyes. Not for the division but 79 wins will see you ahead at the end of the season I believe. Baltimore is a garage sale at asb. Expect jones and machado to go.

    Washington priced-60 to -80 seemed low to me but they are one elbow away from having basically 4 #4s in their rotation and have done next to nothing to make me believe that bullpen is any better. I dont mind the thought of laying 60 and then betting under 94 rsws that division is awful although phils and mets are improved some in my eyes.
    Guerrero has next to zero chance of making the big leagues this year. He is 18 years old with 0 AB's above A ball. Bo Bichette has about a .00000000001% chance of seeing the big league club before the year ends; he's 19 with zero AB's above A ball. If you are relying on two guys who have never played a game above A-Ball and can't even drink alcohol, you aren't making any bets on Toronto. Neither of those guys are a part of the plan for this year.

  30. #30
    EOG Dedicated Screw Andrews's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 12, 2015
    Location
    St. Luke's
    Posts
    2,043

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Hi Gabe
    When you're winning stack up, when you're losing back up....
    Gabe if you're not going to post ALL your plays on the website why not post them ALL in ONE thread and let people know where that is?

  31. #31

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Tampa has young talent you can hang your hat on a bit, they look undersold @ 77.5

  32. #32

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by Screw Andrews View Post
    Hi Gabe
    What?

  33. #33

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    lol Screw Andrews thinks Timely is Gabe.

    wtf
    Cubs win it all

  34. #34

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Tampa has young talent you can hang your hat on a bit, they look undersold @ 77.5
    probably because they're still talking of trading Archer, and if they do that, you can bet your ass a few more pieces will go and then you're looking at an upper 60s team.
    Cubs win it all

  35. #35
    EOG Dedicated Screw Andrews's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 12, 2015
    Location
    St. Luke's
    Posts
    2,043

    Default Re: Talk me out of it

    Too lazy to go back a look at history...fishing....

    If Timely sorry about what Javi and Gabe did for peanuts....kinda trashy...
    When you're winning stack up, when you're losing back up....
    Gabe if you're not going to post ALL your plays on the website why not post them ALL in ONE thread and let people know where that is?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •