The 5-12 matchups this season and every season
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  1. #1

    Default The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Interestingly, all four 5-12 showdowns will take place west of the Mississippi this season with two games in Boise and two games in San Diego.

    The way the tournament is structured, there are two inherent reasons the #12 seed is dangerous against the #5 seed every season.

    1) The tournament committee "protects" the top 16 teams in the tournament (seeds 1-4) with sites that are generally favorable to the home team, thus leaving the #5 seeds on the cutting room floor.

    2) The tournament committee "reserves" the bottom four seeds in each bracket (seeds 13-16) with lowly-rated automatic qualifiers so the #12 seeds are typically the best of the automatic qualifiers.

  2. #2

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    William Hill priced the #5 seeds as follows:

    Clemson -4.5

    Kentucky -6

    Ohio State -7.5

    West Virginia -10

  3. #3
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.

  4. #4

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    At William Hill, no lower-seeded team opened the favorite over a team with a more favorable seed.

    Usually, there's a #9 seed or #10 seed that opens the fave.

  5. #5

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.
    Indeed.

    The #5 seeds fall prey to the falling knife syndrome.

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    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Indeed.

    The #5 seeds fall prey to the falling knife syndrome .
    I remember ND in that 5 seed losing to Winthrop. The 5’s as a falling knife is a good analogy. The weakest one this year appears to be Ohio St. I would love to take SD St but that’s a pretty weak conference.

  7. #7

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    I saw the Jackrabbits play in Sioux Falls and they shot the lights out. 14 of 28 on 3’s and 21 of 26 on ft’s.

    Daum is 6’10” and I do not think you need to guard him with a big guy. I am really curious what OSU does.

    It will be a fun game and the Bunnies will need to hit 15 x 3’s at least and stay out of foul trouble!

  8. #8

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    I saw the Jackrabbits play in Sioux Falls and they shot the lights out. 14 of 28 on 3’s and 21 of 26 on ft’s.

    Daum is 6’10” and I do not think you need to guard him with a big guy. I am really curious what OSU does.

    It will be a fun game and the Bunnies will need to hit 15 x 3’s at least and stay out of foul trouble!

    The Big Ten had issues this season.

    Only four teams from a 14-team conference made the tournament.

    I'd look to fade Big Ten reps, not support them.

  9. #9

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    The Big Ten had issues this season.

    Only four teams from a 14-team conference made the tournament.

    I'd look to fade Big Ten reps, not support them.
    It will be interesting to see how those teams perform with an extra week of rest. I can see them coming out rusty in the first half of their openers but MSU and Purdue are big favorites so it shouldn't matter too much and will be an overall benefit. OSU would appear to be the most vulnerable, having not played since March 2 and finishing the year on a 1-4 ATS run. Michigan probably didn't want the layoff; being on a 9 game winning streak (and 8-1 ATS run).

  10. #10
    EOG Veteran Pigpen's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.
    Hey FW, do you follow and/or have any comment on Loyola-Chi? I watched them play in their tourney and was impressed. I see they have upper class men logging most of their time with a freshman in there. I am going to try a small play here vs Miami.
    Last edited by Pigpen; 03-13-18 at 10:17 AM. Reason: Team

  11. #11

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Daum will take 10 x 3 point shots for sure. I think he is similar to McDermott who played at Creighton. The over feels the best to me on this game. Tellinghuisen can hit shots. The key for them is the scramble after the 3 point shots can be somewhat lucky on how the ball comes off.

  12. #12

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Thanks for sharing, Bucky.

    I appreciate your insight.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    My boys are extremely vulnerable

  14. #14
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Hey FW, do you follow and/or have any comment on Loyola-Chi? I watched them play in their tourney and was impressed. I see they have upper class men logging most of their time with a freshman in there. I am going to try a small play here vs Miami.
    I was playing Miami. I hope the Ramblers win but it seems like there is a lot of love for them at a near pick.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
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  15. #15

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    The 5-12 betting prop at Station Casinos: Will a #12 seed win a game in the NCAA Tournament? Yes -300 No +240.

  16. #16
    The opening odds start here jimmythegreek's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Give me as much as -900 I have three #12 seeds advancing over a 5. At least if not win, cover with Kentucky the only one advancing which I also had to think about.

    Now if we can only get JK to check his PM's once in a blue moon.

  17. #17

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Interestingly, all four 5-12 showdowns will take place west of the Mississippi this season with two games in Boise and two games in San Diego.

    The way the tournament is structured, there are two inherent reasons the #12 seed is dangerous against the #5 seed every season.

    1) The tournament committee "protects" the top 16 teams in the tournament (seeds 1-4) with sites that are generally favorable to the home team, thus leaving the #5 seeds on the cutting room floor.

    2) The tournament committee "reserves" the bottom four seeds in each bracket (seeds 13-16) with lowly-rated automatic qualifiers so the #12 seeds are typically the best of the automatic qualifiers.
    Very good points, JK.

  18. #18

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmythegreek View Post
    Give me as much as -900 I have three #12 seeds advancing over a 5. At least if not win, cover with Kentucky the only one advancing which I also had to think about.

    Now if we can only get JK to check his PM's once in a blue moon.
    Give me until later tonight to respond.

    Not an expert on the tech side of things here.

  19. #19

    Default Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    The Bunnies gave the Buckeyes a good game - they were right there. I think Daum has a shot T being a pro. What do you guys think?

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