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  1. #36

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Never saw a street named "Easy."
    Touchee!

  2. #37

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

    How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

    If you're fearing the worst this might be the wrong pursuit...... fear is a horrible tool to carve out a future in the gambling world.

    You're asking a very general question to what will be a very individualized answer. No two of us are alike.

    I think what would help most is to be 100% honest with yourself. From there you know what you can expect.

    If you're a pro and making +EV wagers then you know over the long run you will get the best of it. There should be some comfort there.

    If you're not a professional then you know (or you should) that this is just a hobby, you are going to lose over the long run....

    Thus prepare bet size, frequency of wagering and so on until it's something you are very comfortable with.

    Expect and plan to lose, because you're going to in the long run. Knowledge is power.

    For me this works. I'm involved with pari-mutuals I KNOW I'm going to lose. I take what I expect is gone and go drink beer and have fun at a matinee. Same with craps.

    Poker I KNOW I'm going to win. When some old lady pulls a miracle 46-1 shot out on the river it stings a little but easy to be a good sport because I know the future...

    May not be from her but I'm going to get my hourly rate by the end of the year.

    Summation? For me knowing when I'm supposed to lose, when I'm supposed to win, creates comfort, peace of mind....

    What and how it happens from there is very easy to accept and would never change my overall outlook away from gambling.

    If you're a positive person overall then you are doing something wrong if gambling is causing you to be negative in other areas of your life.

    We move on.

  3. #38

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Never saw a street named "Easy."

    Hahaha.....

  4. #39

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Press enter on wagers go to gym put pin at bottom of stack and crush

    Forget about. everything

  5. #40

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    I asked this same question of you and Dink on your radio show some years ago. I have no problem with the bad beats and what it does to my bank account I have always struggled with how they affect my personality.

    It is almost impossible to go through a downswing and not let it affect your everyday interactions with people. You could have the sweetest woman on earth, the best friends, a great dog, family but the last thing I want is any of them telling me about their lives when I just had a 19 yr old kick a 50 yarder to send it to overtime when I have the under.

    I am a sweater. I watch almost every bet. I stay up until 3 am nightly this time of year. I awake at 10. I schedule my whole day around tiring my mind from the nights before capping, poker or even the result.

    Whatever I do (gym, hike, yoga, cooking class, date, friends at bowling) I intend to get done by 4. I watch every single game I bet from start to finish. I take notes on the game. I just began doing this in nba because it was my first year and I was working with someone who's made his entire nut from nba. Do this! Or dont watch at all. If you arent learning something from what you see maybe you're just gambling because you really want to be entertained.
    If entertainment is what you're after there are alot of cheaper methods.

    As for bad nights/days/weeks/months. Mental state of mind/balance.
    1. Listen to stand up. Laughing is essential during a downswing. Ill listen to Louis CK, Chris rock, whoever. I find miserable comics to be the best. They make feeling shitty fun.
    2. Hang out with non gamblers. Talk politics, talk about crazy exes, go to the gym together who cares. They don't know who Craig Bohl is and don't give a damn that he continually costs me money.
    3. Hate to go Barry Greenstein on ya but have sex or get some affection of some kind. That should probably be ahead of stand up, my bad.
    4. Exercise. I lost 30 pounds on a downswing. No B.S. girlfriend dumped me and I couldn't pick a mlb winner to save my life. I went to the gym every single day for 5 months. 1-3 hours a day. Every bet I made I didn't like (+clv but unsure opinion) I would go to the gym and analyze it after every rep or on the bike, treadmill. Yoga is better but expensive and harder to do everyday if you are doing serious venyasa.
    Anyway get the body moving and so will the mind.

    Lastly do this everyday. Do something you just love to fucking do.
    Eat the extra slice
    Go see any band you want and who cares goes with.
    Buy a video game and play it all day
    Make fun of your friends
    Smoke a j. Have a shot.
    Book a trip you cant afford to take.
    Buy a dog (better yet adopt two) and use it to get shallow women.
    Sleep until noon
    Watch funny tv all day.
    You do something you love to do everyday and eventually your handicapping will improve. Happiness and winners go hand in hand.

  6. #41

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Never saw a street named "Easy."

    https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Eas...8!4d-81.234042



    north from southdale rd. east, one west of nixon ave ... london, ON

  7. #42

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Consecutive posts from Merlin, McIrish, Billy, Drink and Howid.

    Drink and Billy provided the long and short of it while McIrish's contribution felt a lot like Try's earlier post.

    Thanks for sharing, men.

  8. #43

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

    2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

    3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

    4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
    your net worth ?
    Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
    so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

    END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
    get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

    LET THE CHIPS FALL

  9. #44

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by THE FACTSMAN View Post
    1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

    2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

    3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

    4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
    your net worth ?
    Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
    so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

    END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
    get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

    LET THE CHIPS FALL
    Sounds like four of The Ten Commandments, especially with the prayer references to Hail Marys and Our Fathers.

    Joe, you missed your late father's great line, "If you have two, why do you need one?"

    I heard a horse owner on TVG last month say, "I got money, I don't need to gamble."

  10. #45

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    bad beats ??? if you can't take losing ... quit

    if you don't want to spend money on information ... don't bother betting.

  11. #46

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

    How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

    Sports bettors who play underdogs always think about losing to the number in overtime, horseplayers think negatively or lack confidence when spreading themselves too thin and covering too many numbers in multi-race wagers and poker players are always thinking about the number of possible cards or "outs" to get beat "on the river."

    I'm a positive person by nature but gambling is tough on the psyche.
    Don't worry about what is going to happen, only what needs to be done.
    Men are born for games. Nothing else... the worth or merit of a game is not inherent in the game itself but rather in the value of that which is put at hazard. Games of chance require a wager to have meaning at all. Games of sport involve the pride of victory & the humiliation of defeat; which are themselves sufficient stake... But trial of chance or worth, all games aspire to the condition of war, for here, that which is wagered swallows up game, player, all.

  12. #47

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Drink - All great points but I disagree with the staying up late part. Unless you're betting those games live, make your pvr your friend. Get up at 7:00 instead,watch those games with a bit more clarity and maybe you'll pick up some early news and a slow overnight line instead.
    If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

  13. #48

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Now, MrTop, GameBred and Goon contribute clever commentary.

    Where's Voodoo to complete this fabulous foursome?

  14. #49

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by MrTop View Post
    bad beats ??? if you can't take losing ... quit

    if you don't want to spend money on information ... don't bother betting.
    You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

    What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.
    If you ain't shopping you ain't trying

  15. #50
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Only bet what you can afford to lose, make it a hobby not a job.

  16. #51

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Never put yourself on the podium when you win, never ever knock a man down when he loses.

    Have a healthy appetite at the window but don't overeat.

    Gambling mirrors life but it ain't life.




    Great thread here, really enjoyed men talking.
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  17. #52

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by THE FACTSMAN View Post

    3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

    usually the team on the other-side of the Bad Beat
    "White Folk's Greed Runs a World In Need..."

  18. #53

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    I believe that gamblers need a holistic view about yourself to manage the emotional swings

    This also helps to reduce depression and anxiety from life's disappointments in general.
    Also it's good to talk to others which serves to regulate behavior and thinking.

  19. #54

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Physical fitness can improve or build much needed mental toughness

  20. #55

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by bomzee View Post
    Physical fitness can improve or build much needed mental toughness

    absolutely
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  21. #56

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    I have actually taken a break from nba for the first time in 7 years.

    For the last 7 years the nba was my bread and butter. Always have done well in football too but not like basketball. If you’ve followed my plays in the best bet thread I had many one possession losses and wins. I don’t see value anymore in the nba. The numbers I run are very close to the number in the book.

    I’ve decided to find the best in season trends and stick with them as much as possible next year. Playing against golden st in the 1h was a nice money maker this year. I’m not going to try and beat the books daily in b-ball anymore. I don’t think it can be done.
    You got to lose to know how to win.

  22. #57

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for action or -EV, then slow way down, it's just for fun and entertainment then.

    tell yourself that but never wager enough to put your mind on tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less than your Kelly calculator. know your brain chemistry on losses. the brain acts differently on wins. you value them much less than you hate the loss of a same amount.
    I agree with this. If u believe in karma...you're the type of guy who believes in Palm Readers. It's about getting it in good, that's it.

  23. #58
    All I do is trytrytry trytrytry's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Never saw a street named "Easy."
    unless your Corys Mom

  24. #59

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Forum humor.

    For insiders only.

  25. #60
    All I do is trytrytry trytrytry's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    or maybe Stacy's Mom

  26. #61

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by THE FACTSMAN View Post
    1.You cant be a fan and be a gambler............conflict of interest

    2. The second a game goes final its HISTORY..............move on

    3. BAD BEATS..........silliest gambling term ever until someone tells me what a good beat is.

    4. The ROI or what % of your bankroll to risk is silly as well...........what determines ones bankroll ?
    your net worth ?
    Generally peoples so called bankroll is amount they set aside they can afford to lose
    so if your prepared to lose...............why bother fucking betting.

    END OF THE DAY...........do your homework, find a edge, bet the best number you can
    get some rosary beads and knock out a Hail Mary and a few our fathers

    LET THE CHIPS FALL
    bad beat means you were a -500 or more chalk in game, or mythical in game if no real in game exists and lost, a good beat is you were a +500 dog in game at some point and won.

    I usually experience at least one of these a day, but bad beats outweigh good beats, if you're sharp. chronic whiners will bring up bad beats often.

  27. #62

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
    You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

    What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.
    paying for information is good, even if the pay is not monetary but invested time which maybe be more valuable than money, time cant be retreived

  28. #63

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    you can deep dive a ufc match or tennis match by looking at current health, form, mood,travel and other stuff. Id rather gather info or commentarys than an other opinion. other people opinion are mostly distractions, especially if they work for a company that will restrict words or ideas.

  29. #64

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenGoon View Post
    You can do well without paying for information and still be well informed. I agree at some level paying for REAL information makes sense, but you have to clarify what you mean by information. It's not tout picks and trends, that's for sure.

    What I mean is stuff like big syndicates having multiple beat writers on their payroll for each team, always in the know what's going to move the markets and when, the guys that move things drastically by making 5-6 digit plays on a consistent basis.



    line service... ken pom... PFF... soon to be USA today will be a pay service.... Cable , smartphone , home computer ---- little do we all know but this cost $$$

    nothing is for free...if you have twitter you are paying for information by having a smartphone

    all the leagues just about you have to pay extra $$$ for sports channels ........that is info. too

    if you only have a flip phone and newspaper .... a little hard to bet

  30. #65

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    paying for sports channels.... microsoft excel... new computer & phone every few years , bigger monitor to get the information... antivirus




    now if one bets going to local library and using a flip phone to call local bookmaker....cost is very small... don't even need newspaper.. but then betting is hard... better to give up betting

  31. #66

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    bad beat means you were a -500 or more chalk in game, or mythical in game if no real in game exists and lost, a good beat is you were a +500 dog in game at some point and won.

    I usually experience at least one of these a day, but bad beats outweigh good beats, if you're sharp. chronic whiners will bring up bad beats often.
    As you often do....pot meet kettle...

    Have never seen you say that the other side was the right play...
    Everyone dies......but not everyone lives.....

  32. #67

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma


  33. #68
    EOG Dedicated rdalert447's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Get a job with benefits. Become a "specialist" and limit your bets to those specialist categories where you feel you have an edge(conference play, specific tracks/sports, etc). Even if it means cutting your volume down by 75%. Completely takes the sweat out of it and makes losses more emotionally manageable.

  34. #69

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    You have to have a passion for what you gamble on. If you don’t, you’re not going to take the the time to dissect the sport. When you’re on a cold streak, you can’t tie a rope around your neck and end it. Likewise when you’re on a hot streak, you can’t think you’re invincible. Get out of your norm sometimes. Switch things up. Have fun. Do parlays. Do props. Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. Never. There are always going to be people sharper because they take the time to dissect information. I’ve been working on which dB will get drafted first for the past week (M.Fitzpatrick, Ward, D.James ) and I think teams are scared of Fitzpatrick because of all the talent that was around him but I just can’t pull the trigger on Ward or James yet. Darnold went from -130 to get drafted first (qb) to -250 currently at bookmaker (the past 24 hours). These are things you need to be aware of. Awareness.

  35. #70

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Some good stuff here.

    Would add: if you're line grinding, then beats and losing streaks should get eaten up fairly quickly by your huge sample size. If you're making tens of thousands of bets a year, streaks, good or bad, get diluted.

    If you're handicapping, you'll almost certainly be making fewer bets, AND you'll be making them with three clouds hanging over your head constantly.

    Cloud #1: maybe, even if you've had a good history of beating a sport, you've previously just been lucky. If 10% of sports bettors beat a sport pretty good this year on luck alone, then 1% will do that two years in a row, and 1% of "all sports bettors" makes for a lot of guys completely convinced that they're winners. Winning because you're lucky feels the same as winning because you're good. So maybe you aren't really being unlucky now, maybe you're just having your previous good luck balanced out. Or as we say in poker, maybe the cards are breaking even on your sorry, luck-box self.

    Cloud #2: Even if you've genuinely been a great capper in a sport, the market may have caught up to you. There are some statistical measures you can employ to somewhat detect this possibility, but the market changes can be subtle and it's always possible that you are now, for invisible reasons, the fish.

    Cloud #3: Maybe you are just being unlucky, but you can be unlucky long enough to go broke. And though BR management can help, at some point, if it calls for bets so small they aren't worth making because they won't pay your bills even if you win, then you have to move on, and no whining about "unfairness" is warranted. No body else cares about your bad luck, and the only thing less valuable than sympathy is self-pity.

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