A gambler's dilemma
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Thread: A gambler's dilemma

  1. #1

    Default A gambler's dilemma

    Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

    How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

    Sports bettors who play underdogs always think about losing to the number in overtime, horseplayers think negatively or lack confidence when spreading themselves too thin and covering too many numbers in multi-race wagers and poker players are always thinking about the number of possible cards or "outs" to get beat "on the river."

    I'm a positive person by nature but gambling is tough on the psyche.

  2. #2

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Three plays today and three losers.

    Failed to pull the trigger on Arrieta and/or OVER in the Phillies/Rays game.

    #Snakebit

  3. #3
    All I do is trytrytry trytrytry's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for action or -EV, then slow way down, it's just for fun and entertainment then.

    tell yourself that but never wager enough to put your mind on tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less than your Kelly calculator. know your brain chemistry on losses. the brain acts differently on wins. you value them much less than you hate the loss of a same amount.

  4. #4

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for aciton or -EV then well slow way down its just for fun and entertainment then.

    tell your self that but never wager enough to put your mind in tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less then your Kelly calculator. know your own brain chemistry on losses. the brain different on wins you value them much less, than you hate the loss of a same amount.

    Excellent advice, Try3.

    Who doesn't hate to lose?

    I think we're all professional competitors by nature.

  5. #5
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Forget today, prep for tomorrow. I believe you have to eliminate all emotion from gambling...takes some of the fun out of it when winning but certainly helps when you had a day like today.

  6. #6

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Being a pessimist is why I’d rather find value in favorites than value in underdogs.

  7. #7
    EOG Dedicated waco's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.

  8. #8

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Brayden11 View Post
    Forget today, prep for tomorrow. I believe you have to eliminate all emotion from gambling...takes some of the fun out of it when winning but certainly helps when you had a day like today.

    I'll take your advice.

    Feel the Pacers +6.5 is Sunday's best play.

    I'll sit stonefaced through the entire 48-minute game.

    Forget today, prep for tomorrow is an excellent line.

  9. #9

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by waco View Post
    favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.

    The underdogs in Major League Baseball are waiting for, you guessed it, the dog days of summer.

  10. #10
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by waco View Post
    favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.
    How far can you go back, I'd be curious what the data shows over the past 2 years. Big fan of the medium sized baseball dog especially when you feel you're getting the best of it.

  11. #11

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for aciton or -EV then well slow way down its just for fun and entertainment then.

    tell your self that but never wager enough to put your mind in tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less then your Kelly calculator. know your own brain chemistry on losses. the brain different on wins you value them much less, than you hate the loss of a same amount.
    "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.

  12. #12
    All I do is trytrytry trytrytry's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.
    very true

  13. #13

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

    -FH-

  14. #14

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.

    Birdie delivered a great line last year when saying, "Stay positive in your gambling approach but think negative when handicapping the games."

    Betting against teams in turmoil, finding injuries no one else knows about, contradicting the mainstream narrative, etc.

  15. #15

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Sol Diablo View Post
    Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

    -FH-

    The approach works great if you think the market is an efficient one.

    NFL, check...NBA, check...but I'm not sure I'd trust any other sport.

  16. #16
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    The approach works great if you think the market is an efficient one.

    NFL, check...NBA, check...but I'm not sure I'd trust any other sport.
    MLB no check?

  17. #17

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Brayden11 View Post
    MLB no check?
    MLB definitely a CHECK.

  18. #18

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Same weather in Chicago tomorrow for the cubs game. Pitchers looked very uncomfortable today. Chatwood looks very uncomfortable in perfect weather. So naturally he will throw a gem tomorrow.

  19. #19
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Sol Diablo View Post
    MLB definitely a CHECK.
    Id say so.

  20. #20
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Same weather in Chicago tomorrow for the cubs game. Pitchers looked very uncomfortable today. Chatwood looks very uncomfortable in perfect weather. So naturally he will throw a gem tomorrow.
    Lot of pitchers who rely on breaking stuff don't like pitching in the cold, loss of feel. Hated playing in the 30 degree spring days of Wisconsin as a youngster.

  21. #21

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Brayden11 View Post
    How far can you go back, I'd be curious what the data shows over the past 2 years. Big fan of the medium sized baseball dog especially when you feel you're getting the best of it.

    Sports database goes back like 10 years. You can search almost any scenario on that site. It is quite a tool.

    Trust me, playing dogs has not been profitable in any sport, but baseball has probably been the worst.

    Gamblers need to get rid of these preconceived notions of " home dogs" or "medium favorites"
    Etc.

    The problem is all you hear are shitty touts so we are stuck with these shitty trains of thought.

    I stopped listening to gambling pods for this reason.
    "Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie, but we gotta fight"
    -Slim Charles (also the new motto of pregame.com)

  22. #22

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Sol Diablo View Post
    Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

    -FH-
    FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida

  23. #23

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Brayden11 View Post
    Lot of pitchers who rely on breaking stuff don't like pitching in the cold, loss of feel. Hated playing in the 30 degree spring days of Wisconsin as a youngster.
    Doesn’t help theyve made the balls slicker, lots of pitchers have complained of different seems last few years.

    Fuck manfred

  24. #24
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Inkwell77 View Post
    Sports database goes back like 10 years. You can search almost any scenario on that site. It is quite a tool.

    Trust me, playing dogs has not been profitable in any sport, but baseball has probably been the worst.

    Gamblers need to get rid of these preconceived notions of " home dogs" or "medium favorites"
    Etc.

    The problem is all you hear are shitty touts so we are stuck with these shitty trains of thought.

    I stopped listening to gambling pods for this reason.

    I would disagree that there's no value in playing dogs, plenty of subsets will be profitable.

  25. #25
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    was all in pre flop twice last night

    AQ vs. A2
    AK vs. KJ

    lost both

    fuk gambling
    The real women sport expert

  26. #26
    EOG Dedicated Brayden11's Avatar
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    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    was all in pre flop twice last night

    AQ vs. A2
    AK vs. KJ

    lost both

    fuk gambling
    Thats variance. I'd play those hands all day long with a smile on my face.

  27. #27

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Sleepy View Post
    was all in pre flop twice last night

    AQ vs. A2
    AK vs. KJ

    lost both

    fuk gambling

    Thanks for checking in, Sleepy.

    Bad beats in poker are tough to stomach.

  28. #28

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by waco View Post
    favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.
    If you bet to win 500 on every favorite - how did it turn out after the juice?

  29. #29

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida
    Of course he is a non-handicapper. That's not his element whatsoever.

    I'll stop short at calling him mentally ill though. I have no idea on that. Just as good of a chance at that as the rest of us.

    It is a numbers game if you want to show a profit. It's a grind. You can win long term doing that and staying disciplined. What a boring fucking gambling life though...

  30. #30

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida
    Who is Mark Brigida?

  31. #31

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Aint no big deal, you'll get em tomorrow.

  32. #32

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    What i have found is that your absolute best, hottest streak is often followed by a huge debacle, and each time it happens you say, "I wont let that happen next time". And when you're running bad, it's just a matter of time before it changes, you just have to have the cash to ride it out.

  33. #33

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    When winning at the racetrack, I'll sometimes catch myself before I make an over-aggressive bet, a so-called heat check.

    Those wagers by definition never win.

    Or else, the wager would have been considered part of your winning streak.

  34. #34

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    When winning at the racetrack, I'll sometimes catch myself before I make an over-aggressive bet, a so-called heat check.

    Those wagers by definition never win.

    Or else, the wager would have been considered part of your winning streak.
    Yup, you think, "shit man, I'm red hot, I'll just double this streak up and I'll be on easy street."

  35. #35

    Default Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Never saw a street named "Easy."

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