BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down
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Thread: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

  1. #1
    EOG Veteran Johnny Knuckles's Avatar
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    Default BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Like the thread says, Baseball......is the one sport that will beat you down. I know first hand cause I bet the sport the last 25 years, day in, and day out, from April 1st to September 30th, where every single day, they throw out 15 baseball games a day at a gambler's face. And dont just take my word, take Heisenberg's word, take Valuist's word, take Kane's word, they'll all tell you of ALL the countless hours and hours of handicapping that goes into preparing a baseball bet. Sure its fun, and you have to have a passion for it, but come April, come May, come June, come July, come August, you start to feel mentally beaten down. If there's one sport that turns you into a degenerate, its baseball. How many times did we increase our bet size on the Sunday Night baseball game, to get out of a bad weekend jam. The problem with baseball is that there's often no logic to what happens on the field. You're up 6-1 in the 8th, counting your money, and then you find out you lost 7-6 after the idiotic closer didnt do his goddam job.

    One thing that irritates the shit out of me, regarding baseball is the robotic way that Managers manage. Instead of going for the feel of the game, they want to follow the code. So if the 8th inning guy breezed through the inning in a dominant 8 pitch inning, the Manager wont decide to use him again in the 9th, and instead will reply on his closer cause that's what every other Manager does, and of course he doesnt want to risk hurting his closer's feelings.

    So baseball comes at you every day in 15 game droves, and eventually when frustration and stubborness kicks in, we start making mistakes, the worst being with the thinking of "OH THERE'S NO WAY IN HELL THE NYY GET SWEPT AT HOME TODAY BY THE LOWLY MARLINS..............and of course they do". Even the very best teams in baseball with lose 60-70 games. It's baseball, a lot of unexpected things happen during the season. The very worst team in the league will at one point during a 162 game season, win 5 games in a row. The very top team will lose 6 of 7 during the season.

    This year, I've bet 5-7 games so far this year, and I feel relieved that to this point, I havent got sucked into the lunacy of betting baseball everyday. That I'd rather be fresh once football rolls around in the fall. I get a laugh when a guy who thinks his shit stinks, will say at season's end "hey I was up 15 units on baseball this season"..........and that's good? Bud, you spent 5-6 hours a day closely handicapping and following the action every day, for 30 days a month, from April to September, that's 30 days X 6 months = 180 days X 5.5hrs a day = 980 hours. So you're up 15 units after having invested 1,000 hours at your craft. The guy working a minimum wage job down at the corner store is way further ahead after his 1,0000 hours of work. Not to mention the years that baseball takes off your life with the constant sweat jobs.

    I found baseball betting to be such an ego driven hobby, that I wanted to find that one way to beat a book. I was listening to a guy I respect the other day. His name is Gabriel Morency and you hear him on FNTSY Radio, and the SBR youtube channel. He says "why is it so hard to decide that your no longer going to bet with the local bookie after you owe him a considerable sum of money?" Cause it infuriates a gambler from the inside that you LOST to him, and have to admit it......THAT HE BEAT YOU!!!!! Its the same with baseball, the ego within us tells we can win if we remain patient, if we preach money management, if we put in the time and handicap properly......but in the end, the bad unexplainable beats, beat everyone down eventually.

    The last word goes to the late Eric Strasser, a man I always had a tremendous amount of respect for. There was a period of time where I was fortunate to receive his daily plays. If you listened to him on the radio, you were in awe of a man who had so much knowledge on the game of baseball. This guy knew the ins and outs of baseball handicapping better than anyone. This guy would send such impressive writeups on games, filled with insightful breakdowns.......and yet so often, would be so wrong on games.........No bad luck!

  2. #2
    EOG Addicted DotPark's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Excellent

  3. #3
    EOG Addicted DotPark's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    So many good points made but the one that truly hit home is that if there's one sport that will turn you into a degenerate its baseball.

  4. #4

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    TL;dr

    Subscribe to drhpicks.com

  5. #5

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    And yet baseball offers more attractive pricing than football and basketball.

    Sad to think we recently lost both Eric Strasser and Dave Malinsky, two smart guys who loved to analyze the games.

  6. #6

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Beat down?


    I don't get that term.
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  7. #7

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Beat down?


    I don't get that term.
    Wear you down, exhaust someone.

  8. #8

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Wear you down, exhaust someone.

    No reason for that.

    walk away
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  9. #9

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Knuckles isn't what you would call a glass half full guy.

  10. #10

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    mlb is very boring, hard to watch, I like college baseball in june and little league in july

  11. #11

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    The sport has some issues, but that's at all levels. The 3 outcomes approach is dragging games out, and the lack of action is making them more boring.

  12. #12

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    It's Home Run Derby.

    And the big guys with the exaggerated uppercut swings are usually one-dimensional types.

    Triples are more exciting than homers.

  13. #13

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    I prefer football stadiums for baseball, more triples. Mile High better than Coors, Candelstick better than AT&t, 1990 Big A better than today, QUALCOMM better than Petco.

  14. #14

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    I wager, don't watch.

    Check box score a few times maybe.
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  15. #15
    EOG Veteran Johnny Knuckles's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    what a sport! Nationals closer Sean Dolittle lives up to his name and cant do his goddam job Saturday. I mean, when your a "closer", the only thing they ask you is to get 3 goddam outs, just 3, and he cant do that vs the Dodgers. Then Sunday, Gazoo, the Pirates shortstop, cant make a routine throw in the 9th to start a DP. Routine plays that should be made, and arent, that change the swing of games.

  16. #16

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Knuckles View Post
    what a sport! Nationals closer Sean Dolittle lives up to his name and cant do his goddam job Saturday. I mean, when your a "closer", the only thing they ask you is to get 3 goddam outs, just 3, and he cant do that vs the Dodgers. Then Sunday, Gazoo, the Pirates shortstop, cant make a routine throw in the 9th to start a DP. Routine plays that should be made, and arent, that change the swing of games.
    That door swings both ways in any variable
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  17. #17

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    I did have a giggle at the Orioles box this aft

    0 runs 13 hits


    that's hard to do
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  18. #18
    EOG Veteran Pigpen's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Miami meltdown in 9th

  19. #19
    EOG Veteran Johnny Knuckles's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Marlins with the gaffe of the day. 9-4 lead going to the bottom of the 9th, and give up a 6-spot to the pesky Braves.

    That's what makes me laugh about how the media likes to blow Managers. Oh Joe Torre, such a Hall of Fame Manager!!! Sure he can look good when he has an all star cast to Manage, just like Boone does. How great was Torre as a Manager when he managed anyone but the Yankees? How good would Mike Krzyzewski be if he was the Head Coach of the Grambling Tigers? My point being, must be tough for Mattingly as Manager of the Fish. He doesnt have nearly the horses that Boone does in NY. Put Mattingly as skipper of the NYY and he's thought of totally differently.

  20. #20

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Johnny, that's a long post, but I respect your sentiment. Let's start w/ some basic facts:

    1) Baseball is a daily sport.
    2) Bookies USUALLY charge 10-cent juice on baseball.
    3) The MLB sabermetric community is massive.

    OK, let's dig a little deeper on these facts:

    1) They play 162 games. By monitoring player performance, how many secrets can there be? If u get 500 at-bats, you can't fake your way to .300.
    2) If the house is offering a "discount"...there's a reason for it. They feel mostly confident about the lines they post. Ergo, the more action they book, the more they earn (over time).
    3) If Bill James was doing his analysis work 35 years ago, there's been a long time for the analysis community to grow. At one point in time, hitters were evaluated by HR/RBI/BA (and SB). Pitchers were rated by W/L, ERA and Saves.

    Take a look at how advanced the MLB statistics are now. Will blow your mind. If all that INFO is out there...how do we extract edges?

  21. #21

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Johnny, I'll give u one more follow-up. I think your comments about bullpen use are accurate. For starters...what is a SAVE?

    Well, a "save" is a relatively new stat. They sure as hell didn't have Saves when Babe Ruth played. By definition, a relief pitcher can earn a Save by NOT being the winning pitcher and preserving a lead to the finish w/ at least ONE of the following qualifications:

    1) 1+ IP while entering game w/ lead of not more than 3 runs.
    2) Entering game when Tying run is on-base, at-bat, or on-deck.
    3) 3+ IP w/ ANY sized-lead.

    I reference this only b/c I think most managers manage ACCORDING to the Save rule! They hate to bring a closer in for a Non-save situation, as if they're wasting him. At one time, the reliever was viewed as a "fireman." IE, he could put out a fire when called upon. Why can't that be a mid-inning jam instead of the ninth inning?

  22. #22

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    I think there's a ton of variance in baseball betting. As much as any sport.

  23. #23

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyG View Post
    Johnny, I'll give u one more follow-up. I think your comments about bullpen use are accurate. For starters...what is a SAVE?

    Well, a "save" is a relatively new stat. They sure as hell didn't have Saves when Babe Ruth played. By definition, a relief pitcher can earn a Save by NOT being the winning pitcher and preserving a lead to the finish w/ at least ONE of the following qualifications:

    1) 1+ IP while entering game w/ lead of not more than 3 runs.
    2) Entering game when Tying run is on-base, at-bat, or on-deck.
    3) 3+ IP w/ ANY sized-lead.

    I reference this only b/c I think most managers manage ACCORDING to the Save rule! They hate to bring a closer in for a Non-save situation, as if they're wasting him. At one time, the reliever was viewed as a "fireman." IE, he could put out a fire when called upon. Why can't that be a mid-inning jam instead of the ninth inning?

    in the 5th inning a team's offense has a chance to come back which is why the best relief guy is saved for last. That is why they call him the closer. In the 9th inning the other team is running out of outs. Protecting a 1 or 2 run lead in the 5th inning is just not the same. These are reasons why chapman gets paid so well and I am sitting in my chair just drinking coffee not getting paid at all.



  24. #24

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyG View Post
    Johnny, I'll give u one more follow-up. I think your comments about bullpen use are accurate. For starters...what is a SAVE?

    Well, a "save" is a relatively new stat. They sure as hell didn't have Saves when Babe Ruth played. By definition, a relief pitcher can earn a Save by NOT being the winning pitcher and preserving a lead to the finish w/ at least ONE of the following qualifications:

    1) 1+ IP while entering game w/ lead of not more than 3 runs.
    2) Entering game when Tying run is on-base, at-bat, or on-deck.
    3) 3+ IP w/ ANY sized-lead.

    I reference this only b/c I think most managers manage ACCORDING to the Save rule! They hate to bring a closer in for a Non-save situation, as if they're wasting him. At one time, the reliever was viewed as a "fireman." IE, he could put out a fire when called upon. Why can't that be a mid-inning jam instead of the ninth inning?
    Great post and I think managers default to it because it makes their job easier. The media will never second guess them for doing everything by the book. There should be some way to reward the reliever who shut down the opponent in the highest leverage situation and award that reliever the save. I know they have holds now, but nobody cares about holds except for relievers and their agents.

  25. #25
    EOG Dedicated waco's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Great info

  26. #26

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Bluejays started Romo saturday and sunday

  27. #27

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    excuse me tampa bay did

  28. #28

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    excuse me tampa bay did
    What do you make up that strategy Rail? I see some positives and negatives just not sure which one out weighs the other.

  29. #29

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    It creates challenges for both bookmaker and bettor alike.

    Tampa Bay again stated publicly yesterday that Romo was going to again only pitch one inning, then Anthony Banda would enter the game.

    Problem is they decided at the last minute to use 2 other bullpen arms before finally bringing Banda in in the 5th.

    It creates a set of circumstances unlike any I’ve seen in MLB in my lifetime. Ahatd to make a number when you have no idea who’s pitching.

  30. #30

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    Quote Originally Posted by ejd_5277 View Post
    It creates challenges for both bookmaker and bettor alike.

    Tampa Bay again stated publicly yesterday that Romo was going to again only pitch one inning, then Anthony Banda would enter the game.

    Problem is they decided at the last minute to use 2 other bullpen arms before finally bringing Banda in in the 5th.

    It creates a set of circumstances unlike any I’ve seen in MLB in my lifetime. Ahatd to make a number when you have no idea who’s pitching.
    Those kind of shenanigans make Tampa games unbettable until we know who is legitimately starting.

  31. #31

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    MLB will lose fans if there is no starter. Many people go to games to see the starting pitcher...


    stadiums were filled when the ace went.... seaver , carlton , side show like fidrych

  32. #32

    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    battle of attrition

  33. #33
    EOG Veteran Johnny Knuckles's Avatar
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    Default Re: BASEBALL......the sport that will beat you down

    When I make reference to bad beats eventually beating someone down mentally, I refer none other to today's Astros game. An Astros backer has an 8-3 lead heading to the bottom of the 9th in Cleveland, blows the lead, takes a one run lead in the 12th, blows that, and eventually loses the game. I cant tell you how infuriating a result like that is. The Manager, instead of taking his best late inning guy to end the game, goes to his non closer cause its not a 3 run lead or less. Gives the other team life, and watch what happens! Had the Nats today, same with the Brew Crew, thought I was in the midst of a great day of betting, and then fuckface Giles cant get fukin 3 goddam outs. I learn from losses like this, best thing is turn the computer off, cool down and come back to fight another day. I was out for most of the day, scoreboard watching periodically from my phone. When you bet baseball games, unfortunately you need to be in front of your computer or TV's all the time, monitoring what's happening. You take a tiny hedge on Cleveland late in the game at +2000, and then collapses like today dampen the blow.

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