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Thread: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

  1. #36

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    Serena handicap is 0-3-1 handicap
    ROI -0.5

    Since her return, hasn't played since Miami.
    R128 2018 Miami Masters Hard L Naomi Osaka 6-3 6-2
    Women's Singles R32 2018 Indian Wells Masters Hard L Venus Williams 6-3 6-4
    Women's Singles R64 2018 Indian Wells Masters Hard W Kiki Bertens 7-6(5) 7-5
    Women's Singles R128 2018 Indian Wells Masters Hard W Zarina Diyas 7-5 6-3
    Looks like 2-1 and a gift to her older sister.

  2. #37

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Billy always preaches about keeping your cool after a tough gambling loss.

    After all, it's just one game in a long series of betting outcomes.

    I had UNDER 7.5 tonight in Anaheim where Shohei Ohtani went yard with one in the bottom of the ninth inning to make the final score, 7-1, in favor of the Tampa Bay Rays.

    As a dedicated UNDER bettor, I realize many games clear the total in the late innings but this loss felt particularly cruel.

    Not a bad beat but a tough loss to stomach.

    Ugh.
    You've got an 11 and the dealer has a 6. You double down. Your dd card is a 3 and the dealer's hole card is a 4 then he hits a 10. It happens. Right bet, wrong result. Lots of variance in baseball betting.

  3. #38

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    You've got an 11 and the dealer has a 6. You double down. Your dd card is a 3 and the dealer's hole card is a 4 then he hits a 10. It happens. Right bet, wrong result. Lots of variance in baseball betting.
    I like the Cubs -170 Series this weekend.

    2-2 and a push seems like the bad outcome here. Might take a look at it.
    Cubs win it all

  4. #39

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    I like the Cubs -170 Series this weekend.

    2-2 and a push seems like the bad outcome here. Might take a look at it.
    I'm guessing a DH this weekend? I do not have a good read on the Cubs this season. On them, against them, under or over, I'm avoiding them until I get a better read.

  5. #40
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    I'm guessing a DH this weekend? I do not have a good read on the Cubs this season. On them, against them, under or over, I'm avoiding them until I get a better read.
    day/night DH Saturday.

    They have been pretty inconsistant outside of the BP, agree Valuist.
    Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
    -

  6. #41

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    You've got an 11 and the dealer has a 6. You double down. Your dd card is a 3 and the dealer's hole card is a 4 then he hits a 10. It happens. Right bet, wrong result. Lots of variance in baseball betting.

    No doubt.

    And over/under bettors get fooled by sequencing all the time.

    Las Vegas-based gambler WAZ told me gamblers commonly get fooled by randomness and frequently get fooled by sequencing.

  7. #42

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    You've got an 11 and the dealer has a 6. You double down. Your dd card is a 3 and the dealer's hole card is a 4 then he hits a 10. It happens. Right bet, wrong result. Lots of variance in baseball betting.
    According to Railbird he would learn from his 1 sample size mistake and never double down in that spot again. Hell he may even surrender.

  8. #43

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    No doubt.

    And over/under bettors get fooled by sequencing all the time.

    Las Vegas-based gambler WAZ told me gamblers commonly get fooled by randomness and frequently get fooled by sequencing.
    Sequencing is huge. In MLB, its about how teams do with runners in scoring position; in football, its about performance on 3rd down. I like to look for outliers in both those situations and expect them to normalize.

  9. #44

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    According to Railbird he would learn from his 1 sample size mistake and never double down in that spot again. Hell he may even surrender.
    LOL

  10. #45

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    Sequencing is huge. In MLB, its about how teams do with runners in scoring position; in football, its about performance on 3rd down. I like to look for outliers in both those situations and expect them to normalize.

    Very important.
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  11. #46

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Very important.
    Don’t disagree but I’ve seen the same lineup go from elite with runners in scoring position to awful from one year to the next. The question is how much stock you put it in it year by year vs month by month vs week by week vs day by day.
    Cubs win it all

  12. #47
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    According to Railbird he would learn from his 1 sample size mistake and never double down in that spot again. Hell he may even surrender.
    Haha

  13. #48

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    name that tune in 1, don't need to listen to the entire song to know what the song is

  14. #49

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    I like the Cubs -170 Series this weekend.

    2-2 and a push seems like the bad outcome here. Might take a look at it.
    I thought for a 4 game series a series wager only involved first 3 games

  15. #50

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by blueline View Post
    I thought for a 4 game series a series wager only involved first 3 games
    i've never heard of that... i've only bet a few 4 game series series lines in my life, maybe I'm out of the loop
    Cubs win it all

  16. #51

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Cubs lucky to get back on track with another series against AA competition.

  17. #52

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    i've never heard of that... i've only bet a few 4 game series series lines in my life, maybe I'm out of the loop
    Just looked at bookmaker..first 3 games

  18. #53

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by choslamshe View Post
    Cubs lucky to get back on track with another series against AA competition.
    Reds 7-2 last 9 games. Go figure.

  19. #54

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    So you think the Reds represent a quality opponent for the Cubs? Get out of town with a split a good scenario for the Cubs?

  20. #55
    Bells Beer Connoisseur FairWarning's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    i've never heard of that... i've only bet a few 4 game series series lines in my life, maybe I'm out of the loop
    It’s always the first 3 games of a series.

    I may be thinking wrong but if you like them -170 for the series, just play them tonight. If it loses, it’s tough to win the next two against a team playing decent.

  21. #56

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    i've never heard of that... i've only bet a few 4 game series series lines in my life, maybe I'm out of the loop
    Oh my.
    How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

    Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

  22. #57

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Oh my.
    Just not a common bet for myself, lil billy

    Quite an emotional response for you. Guess that survey was wrong, what next a Facebook post about what friends character you are is off base? The humanity

  23. #58

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by FairWarning View Post
    It’s always the first 3 games of a series.

    I may be thinking wrong but if you like them -170 for the series, just play them tonight. If it loses, it’s tough to win the next two against a team playing decent.
    Ive been playing with bitcoin books enough that I’d wager some don’t follow that rule bc I know I’ve been paid money back on a 2-2 Series push at nitrogen, it was a few years ago.

    But billy said oh my.

  24. #59
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    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by blueline View Post
    I thought for a 4 game series a series wager only involved first 3 games
    Correct
    All great genius encounters violent opposition from mediocre minds

  25. #60

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Does bring up a downside of nitrogensports.eu and betcoin.ag and sportsbet.io they use european rules

    nitrogensports.eu won't even offer listed pitchers, so betting a valuable line there early could end up hurting you
    Cubs win it all

  26. #61

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by railbird View Post
    name that tune in 1, don't need to listen to the entire song to know what the song is

    A "Name That Tune" reference?

    My favorite part of the show was when a contestant would finally stop bidding and say in a dramatic voice, "Name that tune."



  27. #62

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
    Does bring up a downside of nitrogensports.eu and betcoin.ag and sportsbet.io they use european rules

    nitrogensports.eu won't even offer listed pitchers, so betting a valuable line there early could end up hurting you

    If they offer series wagers in 4 games and push on 2-2 there is a +ev opportunity. Are you sure? Can you or someone verify? m not funded there (i use almost all credit these days) but will be if true.

  28. #63

    Default Re: I'm channeling my inner BILLYSINK

    Quote Originally Posted by Drnkyourmlkshk View Post
    If they offer series wagers in 4 games and push on 2-2 there is a +ev opportunity. Are you sure? Can you or someone verify? m not funded there (i use almost all credit these days) but will be if true.
    Nitrogensports.eu didn't have series lines today for MLB... not to say they never would, they're a bit unorganized ... but they don't even have rules listened on their website for series MLB bets, so it is possible it's just not something they offer anymore.

    Now frankly I think you should be loaded up on some european bitcoin books regardless... there are countless situations where you can grab guaranteed value in the way they do things that are different than US books. Not big money, but it all adds up.
    Cubs win it all

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