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Thread: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I am predicting right now that Justify will go off at 9 to 10 and win the Belmont by three(3).

    Elliott Walden(now working WITH Bob Baffert) will give Mike Smith the much needed advice as to what to do this time around to make sure he is not nipped at the wire.

    Remember where you heard it from first!


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  2. #37

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Justify and Audible with common ownership.
    yep that is going to be interesting, Moss was talking about that at end of telecast. Winstar probably wants to keep Audible out, while other partners (China Horse Club) leaned to running him.

  3. #38

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I can't imagine he goes off that short in an unknown like the Belmont but I certainly admit that horse racing isn't in my wheel house.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    I can't imagine he goes off that short in an unknown like the Belmont but I certainly that horse racing isn't in my wheel house.
    You need to take into consideration the millions of dollars that will be bet on Justify for souvenir tickets that will NEVER be cashed.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  5. #40

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140
    The right price is:

    Justify -110
    Field -120


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  7. #42

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    You need to take into consideration the millions of dollars that will be bet on Justify for souvenir tickets that will NEVER be cashed.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    For sure. Guessing betting him to place could pay more than to win because of that. But at the places where I can bet the no I'm guessing I don't get better than +150.

  8. #43

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    The right price is:

    Justify -110
    Field -120


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    OK so you agree with me.

  9. #44

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140
    Fuck me. Mr Kelly got me excited thinking I was going to get some good+ money on this.

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    OK so you agree with me.
    My 9 to 10 price on Justify in the Belmont would be 10.6 to 10 without the 18% takeout.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  11. #46

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I thought he should have won by 2-3, fractions weren't taxing. He looked to be inching away at the top of the stretch and he had 4 lengths on pressers....if he runs like he did today he isn't winning the Belmont.

  12. #47

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    My 9 to 10 price on Justify in the Belmont would be 10.6 to 10 without the 18% takeout.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    By 9 to 10 you mean $2.20 payout correct?

  13. #48

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I could be misunderstanding what you are saying.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    By 9 to 10 you mean $2.20 payout correct?
    $3.80.

    1 to 9 is $2.20.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  15. #50
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    I could be misunderstanding what you are saying.
    And I could be saying it wrong.

    I predicted EXACTLY TO THE CENT what the odds on Justify would be in the Kentucky Derby.

    Justify will go off at 9 to 10 and pay $3.80 to win if he crosses the wire first in the Belmont.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  16. #51

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    $3.80.

    1 to 9 is $2.20.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    Ok. Yeah I agree with that. Thought he may even go shorter than that at the track but thought he'd be even money or so on the exchanges.

  17. #52

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    And I could be saying it wrong.

    I predicted EXACTLY TO THE CENT what the odds on Justify would be in the Kentucky Derby.

    Justify will go off at 9 to 10 and pay $3.80 to win if he crosses the wire first.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    Gun to head you won't get that good at the track for the very reason you stated about the souvenirs combined with people just wanting to root for the triple crown bets.

  18. #53

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Ray, I'm sweating my Boston-Cleveland total through your in-game number at CRIS.

    Easier than adding the two scores and looking at the time remaining.
    Pretty rough there.

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    Gun to head you won't get that good at the track for the very reason you stated about the souvenirs combined with people just wanting to root for the triple crown bets.
    The "computer guys" will come with a "value bet" late like they did today in the Preakness with Good Magic.

    That will push Justify from 4 to 5 to 9 to 10 right before the gate opens.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  20. #55

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    Fuck me. Mr Kelly got me excited thinking I was going to get some good+ money on this.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/OddsShark...77227328450560

    early money was on the field.

  21. #56
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Let me re-think my position for a moment.

    Would Baffert scratch a horse on the doorstep of racing immortality?
    he would not scratch if entered. but perhaps not nominate for the race.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140
    is that a future or does it stipulate Justify has to start in the race or no action?

  23. #58

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    On Justify I think. Wasn't he +110 at 5 dimes before?

  24. #59

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    is that a future or does it stipulate Justify has to start in the race or no action?
    Justify has to start

  25. #60

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    On Justify I think. Wasn't he +110 at 5 dimes before?
    early price was Justify -120

  26. #61
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    early price was Justify -120
    Nothing better than watching the sharps and wiseguys turning a favorite into an underdog.

    Do they ever win those?


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  27. #62
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    The "computer guys" will come with a "value bet" late like they did today in the Preakness with Good Magic.

    That will push Justify from 4 to 5 to 9 to 10 right before the gate opens.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    sharp post. Good MAgic
    he went from 14% in the pool all afternoon to a tad over 16.6% in the final 5 minutes. In a massive pool 13 million $ win pool, that was some sharp or strong value players , computer groups getting involved.

  28. #63

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    Nothing better than watching the sharps and wiseguys turning a favorite into an underdog.

    Do they ever win those?


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    just think they see value, you'll probably have 9-10 starters in the gate....The 3 horses that just finished 3-4-5 today, Pletcher will have 2 or 3, Mott has Hofburg, O'Neill with Blended Citizen, Dorf with Instilled Regard. Enticed?
    Field will be a lot stronger than what he faced today.

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I'll fade Justify in the Belmont. There will be a lot value on others.

  30. #65
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    Never.

    Vino Roso's win in the Wood was the PERFECT setup for him.

    He is VERY overrated.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    Lol...you picked him in the Wood (I agreed)...so now he's overrated (KD bounce) & Wood set-up for him. Keep the comedy coming.

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    Lol...you picked him in the Wood (I agreed)...so now he's overrated (KD bounce) & Wood set-up for him. Keep the comedy coming.
    Vino Roso was making a third start off the layoff(did NOT win either of the first two(2) starts) on a track he broke maiden on when he won the Wood Memorial.

    If you don't think that was a good set up spot for him you don't know anything about handicapping horse racing.

    Justify would POUND Vino Roso by twenty(20) lengths in the Belmont if he were to run.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  32. #67

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    1-13 are the last 14 that have tried to win the triple crown after winning the 1st 2 legs. I'm going with the 13 and if he wins I'll just pay up.
    small sample

  33. #68

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    1 for 1 also

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    Vino Roso was making a third start off the layoff(did NOT win either of the first two(2) starts) on a track he broke maiden on when he won the Wood Memorial.

    If you don't think that was a good set up spot for him you don't know anything about handicapping horse racing.

    Justify would POUND Vino Roso by twenty(20) lengths in the Belmont if he were to run.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?

  35. #70

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Pharoah enjoyed a room service first half of race and it was a done deal from there.
    this race will depend on a kamikaze speed horse being entered along with the bout 12 horses that will be entered. another mad dash to first quarter will not be comely.

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