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Thread: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

  1. #71
    EOG Dedicated The Meatman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
    Pretty much.

    Do you not like betting the third start off the layoff angle(when a horse never won the first of second start) on a track where he/she broke maiden?

    What more do you really need to know??

    Some workout the horse had in the AM???


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  2. #72
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
    Then he ran a bad race his second start off the layoff setting up his EXPLOSION in his third start off the layoff on a track he broke maiden on first time out.

    Watch and learn, son.

    Watch and learn.




    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  3. #73
    EOG Dedicated Sleepy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140
    bookmaker has

    Will Justify win the Triple Crown ? Must Start Belmont for action


    Yes -115
    No -115
    The real women sport expert

  4. #74

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
    His race in the Tampa derby comes back as slow due to soft fractions

    His final fractions were fast going into the wood ..his final fraction numbers ( beyer style) going into wood were 104,106,103 and 97 in his debut

  5. #75

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    I like RAYCABINO's thoughts on everything except horse racing.

    Now that I see the actual numbers I don't feel like such a misfit talking horses.

  6. #76

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by raycabino View Post
    Now that I see the actual numbers I don't feel like such a misfit talking horses.

    Touché.

    I'm surprised for all the support against Justify.

  7. #77

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Touché.

    I'm surprised for all the support against Justify.
    Horses were closing in on him going 9.5 furlongs...how can they not pass him going 12 is what people are thinking....anyway it comes down to is he spent or not...its a guess...who really knows

  8. #78
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    The only horse that I can see giving Justify any trouble in the Belmont based on having "extra rest" is Mendelssohn.

    And that's a longshot at best.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato


    Audible CAP

  9. #79
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by blueline View Post
    Horses were closing in on him going 9.5 furlongs...how can they not pass him going 12 is what people are thinking....anyway it comes down to is he spent or not...its a guess...who really knows
    Because Justify will run a different race going twelve(12) furlongs.

    These "supposed" closers NEVER show up in the Belmont.

    Other than Victory Gallop of course.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

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    EOG Dedicated michael777's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Go eat some real man's food

  11. #81
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by michael777 View Post
    Go eat some real man's food





    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  12. #82
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Your Small Potatoes

  13. #83
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Interesting dilemma for the owners of Audible since they are also principal owners of Justify. Do you enter Audible & compromise Justify's chances & future breeding value?
    The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

  14. #84
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    Interesting dilemma for the owners of Audible since they are also principal owners of Justify. Do you enter Audible & compromise Justify's chances & future breeding value?
    Audible could be entered as an insurance policy if Justify is over the top,and shows up just to draw a crowd and generate interest.If not 100% Justify can be entered make an appearance and not be pushed too far on the track,Audible would then be the real go horse for the connections.Justify would still have earned his stripes running in all 3 TC races, and Audible gets a breeding boost too if he can win the Belmont...

  15. #85
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Justify is worth a hundred million(100,000,000) dollars WITHOUT running in the Belmont.

    The only way they put Justify on the track three(3) weeks from now is if he intends to win the race.

    Having Justify to show up at Belmont to run a flat race to somehow draw in the crowds is laughable.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

  16. #86

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Justify will win

  17. #87

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    its trainer-speak do with it what you will

    “He did something totally different yesterday. He got challenged early. Good Magic was pushing him out the whole way,” Baffert said. “He had a five-eighths run, so that's probably why he didn't have a lot of kick at the end. But Mike said he could have won by more. When he knew he had it he just coasted to the wire. When he was pulling up and the horses came to him, he takes off again. It was close, but for him, what he's done – fifth race – it's pretty incredible.”

    “I think the Belmont will be easier on him, the way it's set up,” said Baffert, who trains Justify for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing and Head of Plains Partners.
    Baffert made three failed attempts to pull off a sweep of the Triple Crown with Derby and Preakness winners Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) before getting the job done in 2015 with American Pharoah, who ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought that followed Affirmed's successful bid in the 1978 Belmont. American Pharoah's success makes the Triple Crown challenge somewhat less daunting.
    “I think it's a little bit different. Before we'd go there thinking it's going to be so difficult. Something always goes wrong. I just feel with this horse, he's so talented, something can go wrong and he'd still win,” Baffert said. “He's a superior horse. Yesterday, they tried something different and he handled it. He's not one-dimensional.”

  18. #88

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Agree with most of that. Smith had the horse in hand late and admitted to never seeing Bravazo. This could have been a disastrous mistake. Watching the replay he definitely had Tenfold measured. Can't get a decent view of the gallop out but Smith said Justify re-broke when he saw Bravazo.
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  19. #89

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    Let me re-think my position for a moment.

    Would Baffert scratch a horse on the doorstep of racing immortality?
    I'll Have Another
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  20. #90

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Baffert also said during the post game that he was blowing after the race and he looked a little heavy in the paddock from them going so easy on him between races

  21. #91

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I also think what happened to Bolt D'oro and Good Magic will help Justify in the Belmont. No trainer is now going to want to run early with Justify after seeing the consequences of trying to do so.
    "David is aware of this thread and he's disappointed about the developments."

  22. #92

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Chad Brown was pissed after the race at Ortiz...see how that manifests itself down the road

  23. #93

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by The Meatman View Post
    Because Justify will run a different race going twelve(12) furlongs.

    These "supposed" closers NEVER show up in the Belmont.

    Other than Victory Gallop of course.


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
    The Meatman nailed it. The Belmont is rarely a closers race.

  24. #94

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    He is a proverbial stick if he gets way with :48 and :12 and change, and his most lily upsetter (Audible) won't run of course. Unless someone enters an antagonist he might have it real easy.

  25. #95

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by jasson621 View Post
    He is a proverbial stick if he gets way with :48 and :12 and change, and his most lily upsetter (Audible) won't run of course. Unless someone enters an antagonist he might have it real easy.
    Have to think Audible would get a big shot in the race. Pletcher prioritizes the Belmont, and has won it 3 times since 2007.

    Some real mediocre horses have won the Belmont: Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, Da Tara, Jazil, and Tonalist among others in recent years.

  26. #96
    EOG Dedicated waco's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I have to see who else is going to run but this horse has made me some coin. Not only in the derby and Preakness but by taking field in pool 1(4.40) and pool 2 (7.00)

  27. #97
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    horses bred by into Mischief have never won a race longer than 1 mile and 3/16 (he obviously has a couple winners at 1 mile 1/8) . against this top set of 3 year olds will Audible really be the first one in this 1 1/2 mile spot?

  28. #98

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    horses bred by into Mischief have never won a race longer than 1 mile and 3/16 (he obvioulsy has a couple winners at 1 mile 1/8) . against this top set of 3 year olds will Audible really be the first one in this 1 1/2 mile spot?
    How big is the sample size and who were the horses that tried? If its a few 30/1 shots, then it doesn't become real relevant.

  29. #99

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    Have to think Audible would get a big shot in the race. Pletcher prioritizes the Belmont, and has won it 3 times since 2007.

    Some real mediocre horses have won the Belmont: Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, Da Tara, Jazil, and Tonalist among others in recent years.
    Same ownership as Justify, I don't see them running Audible. As a fan I wish they would though.

  30. #100
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    How big is the sample size and who were the horses that tried? If its a few 30/1 shots, then it doesn't become real relevant.
    looks like 699 babies of racing age and none have done it so far. and if they are not trying ever there is an obvious reason. he is the leading sire $$$ wise of 2 years olds and 3 yr olds last year so hes a GREAt stud. for mile races and below. I do of course think he will get a baby a graded win at a 1 1/4 classic distance or 1 3/16 Preakness distance and even a 1 1/2 some day. its going to happen but against this TOP set of 3rd old crops I personally doubt its this year with Audible.


    Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Into Mischief:
    Northern Hemisphere


    8 crops
    799 foals
    7 crops of racing age
    627 foals of racing age
    158 current 2 year old foals
    172 yearlings
    0 weanlings


    In North America / USA, Canada, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
    Japan, UAE, and all other available Northern Hemisphere data:


    3 champions
    16 graded blacktype winners
    37 blacktype winners
    32 blacktype placers


    Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
    Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds


    Foals of Racing Age 627 627 158 627
    Starters(/foals of RA) 376(60%) 211(34%) 5(3%) 263(42%)
    Winners (/foals of RA) 262(42%) 79(13%) 1(1%) 103(16%)
    Blacktype Winners
    (/foals of RA) 37(6%) 9(1%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
    Blacktype Placers
    (/foals of RA) 32(5%) 14(2%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
    Starts 4,166 632 7 800
    Wins (/starts) 753(18%) 105(17%) 1(14%) 133(17%)
    Placings (/starts) 1,141(27%) 187(30%) 2(29%) 222(28%)


    Earnings $34,168,056 $5,529,874 $47,045 $7,789,316
    Avg Earnings
    /starter $90,872 $26,208 $9,409 $29,617
    Avg Earnings /start $8,202 $8,750 $6,721 $9,737
    Median Earnings $40,352
    Avg Earnings Index 2.02 2.28 1.16 1.93
    Comparable Index 1.68
    Avg Distance Raced 6.69 f 6.78 f 4.64 f 6.31 f
    Avg Winning Distance 6.69 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.39 f
    Avg Max. Win Distance 7.08 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.52 f
    Avg Min. Win Distance 6.24 f 6.66 f 4.50 f 6.32 f
    Chief Earner:
    Goldencents $3,044,000
    Audible $1,003,520
    Sombeyay $24,000
    Practical Joke $739,800

  31. #101

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    looks like 699 babies of racing age and none have done it so far. and if they are not trying ever there is an obvious reason. he is the leading sire $$$ wise of 2 years olds and 3 yr olds last year so hes a GREAt stud. for mile races and below. I do of course think he will get a baby a graded win at a 1 1/4 classic distance or 1 3/16 Preakness distance and even a 1 1/2 some day. its going to happen but against this TOP set of 3rd old crops I personally doubt its this year with Audible.



    Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Into Mischief:
    Northern Hemisphere


    8 crops
    799 foals
    7 crops of racing age
    627 foals of racing age
    158 current 2 year old foals
    172 yearlings
    0 weanlings


    In North America / USA, Canada, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
    Japan, UAE, and all other available Northern Hemisphere data:


    3 champions
    16 graded blacktype winners
    37 blacktype winners
    32 blacktype placers


    Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
    Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds


    Foals of Racing Age 627 627 158 627
    Starters(/foals of RA) 376(60%) 211(34%) 5(3%) 263(42%)
    Winners (/foals of RA) 262(42%) 79(13%) 1(1%) 103(16%)
    Blacktype Winners
    (/foals of RA) 37(6%) 9(1%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
    Blacktype Placers
    (/foals of RA) 32(5%) 14(2%) 0(0%) 17(3%)
    Starts 4,166 632 7 800
    Wins (/starts) 753(18%) 105(17%) 1(14%) 133(17%)
    Placings (/starts) 1,141(27%) 187(30%) 2(29%) 222(28%)


    Earnings $34,168,056 $5,529,874 $47,045 $7,789,316
    Avg Earnings
    /starter $90,872 $26,208 $9,409 $29,617
    Avg Earnings /start $8,202 $8,750 $6,721 $9,737
    Median Earnings $40,352
    Avg Earnings Index 2.02 2.28 1.16 1.93
    Comparable Index 1.68
    Avg Distance Raced 6.69 f 6.78 f 4.64 f 6.31 f
    Avg Winning Distance 6.69 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.39 f
    Avg Max. Win Distance 7.08 f 6.82 f 4.50 f 6.52 f
    Avg Min. Win Distance 6.24 f 6.66 f 4.50 f 6.32 f
    Chief Earner:
    Goldencents $3,044,000
    Audible $1,003,520
    Sombeyay $24,000
    Practical Joke $739,800
    How many actually have tried it (running at 1 1/4 miles or longer)? We know Practical Joke ran in the 2017 Derby and Audible obviously ran in the Derby this year. And the sire is only partially responsible for the bloodline. Audible has one advantage over Justify; he's fresher having sat out the Preakness.

  32. #102
    All I do is trytrytry trytrytry's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
    How many actually have tried it (running at 1 1/4 miles or longer)? We know Practical Joke ran in the 2017 Derby and Audible obviously ran in the Derby this year. And the sire is only partially responsible for the bloodline. Audible has one advantage over Justify; he's fresher having sat out the Preakness.
    goldenscents is the best example. great S anita Derby huge Beyer, wagered in the Derby obviously , 17th place.

    came back however to win that Fall the Breedrs cup mile (a tremendous horse!!!) no disrespect to him or Into Mischief!

    the fact that so few try show in general they cant get anywhere near that distance!

    I dont have a full list handy!

  33. #103

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Quote Originally Posted by jasson621 View Post
    Same ownership as Justify, I don't see them running Audible. As a fan I wish they would though.
    I forgot about that. That likely alone could keep him from running. I guess Pletcher could point him toward the Haskell or Travers instead. Probably a good idea; the Belmont wipes out a lot of horses.

  34. #104
    EOG Dedicated Heim's Avatar
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    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Dave, I trust you'll point me in the direction of the horse 3rd race off a layoff.....naturally that's the winner.
    The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

  35. #105

    Default Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    I have 20/1 and 6.5/1 saying that he will...Belmont will be stacked; going to be tough but I believe Justify pulls it off

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