IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

[IrishTim]

Figure if I'm going to be around all playoffs talking shit, might as well post what I'm betting ahead of time. Obviously half the series have already started, but the ones still to go below. Will just use current 5D or Pinny lines to keep it simple.

Round 1

Denver +170 vs. LAL
LA Clippers +175 vs. Memphis
Indiana -365 vs. Orlando
OKC -515 vs. Dallas

The Indiana one might seem a bit unusual down 1-0 in the series, but this Orlando lineup is abysmal. The OKC chalk is steep, but still a bit of value. I obviously also bet them before the series.

[Timely Hero]

Series plays I had:

Denver +money
Indiana
Small play on Utah+big


I liked Dallas, but couldn't get a good number. Angry after how well they played last night, but they still lost so not too upset.

[High Times]

Like the Clippers as a dog

[IrishTim]

Like the Clippers as a dog

Wrong team favored

[Timely Hero]

Wrong team favored

No sir.

[IrishTim]

Ha I had the fair line LAC +110, but it's more sexy to say wrong team favored

[KingRevolver]

Best of luck!

[Ray Luca]

Figure if I'm going to be around all playoffs talking shit, might as well post what I'm betting ahead of time. Obviously half the series have already started, but the ones still to go below. Will just use current 5D or Pinny lines to keep it simple.

Round 1

Denver +170 vs. LAL
LA Clippers +175 vs. Memphis
Indiana -365 vs. Orlando
OKC -515 vs. Dallas

The Indiana one might seem a bit unusual down 1-0 in the series, but this Orlando lineup is abysmal. The OKC chalk is steep, but still a bit of value. I obviously also bet them before the series.

You laid big prices in two series..? wow very surprised seeing this

[Timely Hero]

Ha I had the fair line LAC +110, but it's more sexy to say wrong team favored

The match-ups are dreadful for the Clippers. Conley is fast enough to keep Paul in front of him. Nick Young vs Rudy is just a dreadful match-up for the Clippers. Memphis' size inside should really neutralize Griffin and Jordan.

I like this Memphis team quite a bit though. I like their style, and I like their match-ups throughout the entire Western Conference playoffs. I do agree that the Clippers could be a test. I almost think the Clip are just as much of a test, if not more, than the Spurs.

[IrishTim]

You laid big prices in two series..? wow very surprised seeing this

I don't think you'll find someone at EOG who has espoused the value in laying big chalk if it's +EV more than me. I've laid -2000 in straight bets before and would do it again in the same situation.

Nothing amuses me more than the guys like HT or Winky who have arbitrary cut-off points like "nothing over -150" for lines they won't play. "Who cares if the fair line is -500, if it's -180 I won't bet it."

[High Times]

I don't think you'll find someone at EOG who has espoused the value in laying big chalk if it's +EV more than me. I've laid -2000 in straight bets before and would do it again in the same situation.

Nothing amuses me more than the guys like HT or Winky who have arbitrary cut-off points like "nothing over -150" for lines they won't play. "Who cares if the fair line is -500, if it's -180 I won't bet it."

But come on now dude....

If it works for someone why would that be a problem?



I don't care what anybody bets. If it works for them great, but I will never try to beat sports betting laying chalk. It doesn't work for me.

[buffettgambler]

But come on now dude....

If it works for someone why would that be a problem?



I don't care what anybody bets. If it works for them great, but I will never try to beat sports betting laying chalk. It doesn't work for me.

Do you and Winky have the same cutoff price?

[kirkmuller]

Thanks for sharing Tim. You going to be working same place as last summer?

[Timely Hero]

That reminds me, aren't you in Chicago now?

[IrishTim]

Will be in Chicago for at least the next 2 years. Would've preferred NYC again, but the situation was too good to pass up. And plus rent is a lot cheaper (though still too high).

[Timely Hero]

What part of town are you staying in? Gold Coast, parts of Wrigleyville and parts of Lincoln Park give NY a run for their money rent wise. I paid over $1000, a guy, a month to live across from Wrigley.

Chicago > NY anyway.

[kirkmuller]

cool, have fun!

[Teddy kgb]

Nothing amuses me more than the guys like HT or Winky who have arbitrary cut-off points like "nothing over -150" for lines they won't play. "Who cares if the fair line is -500, if it's -180 I won't bet it."

How often do you see a -180 that you think should be a -500? I'm more in tune with HT when he says "To each his own" I think it's always the math guys that wont bend when it comes to their way of thinking....Like a Cristian and a Muslum fighting over which retard believes in a God when they are both wrong, here you MIGHT have a case of both being right

[IrishTim]

What part of town are you staying in? Gold Coast, parts of Wrigleyville and parts of Lincoln Park give NY a run for their money rent wise. I paid over $1000, a guy, a month to live across from Wrigley.

Chicago > NY anyway.

Chicago is awesome, but it's not NY. I looked at Gold Coast, but went for something in the Loop because it was a bit cheaper and only a couple blocks from work. Wrigleyville and Lincoln Park too far from work for me. I like to sleep until the last possible second and then scoot off to work.

How often do you see a -180 that you think should be a -500? I'm more in tune with HT when he says "To each his own" I think it's always the math guys that wont bend when it comes to their way of thinking....Like a Cristian and a Muslum fighting over which retard believes in a God when they are both wrong, here you MIGHT have a case of both being right

Rarely see that, but it's making a point that there are high chalk plays with value. How often do you see a -180 that should be -300? Rare, but they do exist. What about a -180 that should -250? Probably a few a week. What about a -180 that should be -220? Once a day, etc.

[Timely Hero]

NY dirty, too big and too crowded. Best city in the US, during the summer that is, is Chicago IMO. Winters can be tough, but there's not a better city in the US during the summer. Just stay away from the South Side when it gets warm... they get a little trigger happy.

I run a restaurant in Glenview, which is on the North Side. If you ever wanna come out here with a girl or a few of your buddies let me know - I'll give you some price breaks.

[Ray Luca]

So Tim what should the -365 be?

[IrishTim]

Might take you up on that some point this summer Timely. We also still need to have our 1 on 1 hoops game.

Luca, I have it priced at close to -600 but I had the pre-series price higher than the market as well. Just very bearish on this Orlando lineup minus Howard.

[tickingclock1]

I'm in a flat off Newport right now. About 3 blocks from Wrigley. Smart choice staying in the loop - wish I was there the majority of the time so I could scoot off to work. And being a cards fan is hell on the north side.

[railbird]

8 vs 5 in Lakers Denver game today. Ill trust another Tim, Tim Donaghay

[Timely Hero]

Might take you up on that some point this summer Timely. We also still need to have our 1 on 1 hoops game.

Luca, I have it priced at close to -600 but I had the pre-series price higher than the market as well. Just very bearish on this Orlando lineup minus Howard.

I work every day but Monday-Tuesday. I'll shoot you the name of the place in a PM sometime in the next couple weeks.

[Ray Luca]

Luca, I have it priced at close to -600 but I had the pre-series price higher than the market as well. Just very bearish on this Orlando lineup minus Howard.

what do you make the price right now? Would you bet more?

[railbird]

what do you make the price right now? Would you bet more?

good question, he must really love it now

[IrishTim]

Do neither of you guys bet? That is the current price.

[dsethi]

Might take you up on that some point this summer Timely. We also still need to have our 1 on 1 hoops game.

Luca, I have it priced at close to -600 but I had the pre-series price higher than the market as well. Just very bearish on this Orlando lineup minus Howard.

give me a decent heads up and i would fly out to watch this in person

[IrishTim]

Ha we can definitely make it happen. Preferably late summer/early fall once I get settled in with work and shit.

[Ray Luca]

good question, he must really love it now

Thanks. I thought it was a good question. Tim is smart but young. His best education will be going broke a couple of times. After that, he'll be successful

[Teddy kgb]

Do neither of you guys bet? That is the current price.

Hahahaha.......I honestly think Luca is a Kinger ghost

[Ray Luca]

Would Kinger donate a nickel?

[Ray Luca]

Do neither of you guys bet? That is the current price.

What is YOUR current price on the series at this moment?

[IrishTim]

Thanks. I thought it was a good question. Tim is smart but young. His best education will be going broke a couple of times. After that, he'll be successful

How was it a good question?

I posted the bet Indiana -365. A few hours later, when the line is -370 and no new information, you ask me if I still like it and if I'll be betting more. That makes no sense. Then the downie railbird chimes in with "good question".