IrishTim NBA Playoff Series plays

[WVU]

before the second round the Spurs would not have been this big a fav

[IrishTim]

I agree - albeit small - but for different reasons, most notably getting more data to project the rotations. Point differential is much more significant than W-L record.

[royalfan]

Agree with this play big time. Great play. Coaching mismatch of epic proportions.

Round 3

San Antonio -175

This team plays with ruthless efficiency and has by far the best coach in the NBA and he has been for probably two decades. Fair price around SA -250.

[IrishTim]

Good to see you on it. I banged it pretty good (for me). Brooks sucks as you alluded to but even without that it's still a good play. Not starting Harden (or playing him 35+ minutes), shooting 3s in last shot situations with the game tied, and not fouling when up 3 at the end of the game should be grounds for firing Brooks with cause. And that was just this weekend...

[John Kelly]

I like Tim's "fair price" on San Antonio (-250) over Oklahoma City better than his evaluation of the Boston-Philadelphia series (Celtics -130).

[newport2]

I think it is interesting that "Thunder killer" DeJuan Blair(11th man) has played in only 6 of 8 playoff games and is averaging 8.2 minutes per game. Ginobili missed all 3 regular season games. The Thunder coaches are still trying to figure out the best solution to guarding Bonner(14-20 3pts).

[WVU]

Tim, can I get a prediction on the series line for Boston-Miami?

[IrishTim]

Tim, can I get a prediction on the series line for Boston-Miami?

Away from my computer for the weekend so can't give you the actual number assuming there were no material changes to player production or playoff adjustments (far greater in NBA than MLB and football). My guess right now would be -420.

[Doughboy]

Away from my computer for the weekend so can't give you the actual number assuming there were no material changes to player production or playoff adjustments (far greater in NBA than MLB and football). My guess right now would be -420.

I will venture a guess of -350, not that I see much of a chance of Boston winning absent an injury to LBJ or Wade.

[IrishTim]

I think the line last year was -180 or so. Boston is a year older and as I posted in another thread, player production drops off precipitously in the mid-30s.

(the % represents change from previous season)

23 to 24: +2%
24 to 25: no change
25 to 26: -2%
26 to 27: -4%
27 to 28: -6%
28 to 29: -9%
29 to 30: -11%
30 to 31: -17%
31 to 32: -22%
32 to 33: -35%
33 to 34: -57%
34 to 35: -146%

Just look at Shaq who at age 32 was one of the top handful of players in the league and at age 34 was statistically just a shade above an average center in the NBA.

This combined with Lebron's dominance this season (on display the last two games with the best two performances of the playoffs in the two most important games for Miami) formulated my estimate.

[valdosta]

Is bosh going to be back by then?

[2W2P2S]

If the Heat play the Spurs in the NBA Finals, we could witness the biggest coaching mismatch and strategic edge in the history of the game.

Popovich against Spoestra is a mismatch.

I think Popovich had a big edge over Lionel Hollins as well when they were a 1 seed bounced by an 8 seed last year. I haven't heard mention of this with all the Pop praise in this thread. He is the best coach remaining IMO.....gimme OKC in the series.

[John Kelly]

I think Popovich had a big edge over Lionel Hollins as well when they were a 1 seed bounced by an 8 seed last year. I haven't heard mention of this with all the Pop praise in this thread. He is the best coach remaining IMO.....gimme OKC in the series.

I preferred your Derby analysis.

[IrishTim]

Dodged a bullet with Miami, that was my good sweat for the playoffs. Market bidding up San Antonio.

[munson15]

Congrats on the Miami play, they looked dead midway through game 4 to me.

[John Kelly]

Shame on Indiana for inciting Miami with Stephenson's choke sign, West's rough play and Granger's mouth.

[munson15]

All signs of a team not quite ready to win, John. NBA history is littered with teams who needed to learn some painful lessons before climbing O'Brien summit. Even Jordan's 6-time champion Chicago clubs needed some seasoning and tenderizing before going on their tremendous run in the 90's.

[IrishTim]

Shame on Indiana for inciting Miami with Stephenson's choke sign, West's rough play and Granger's mouth.

That's why they won, nothing to do with vast talent differential.

[royalfan]

Lacking guys that can break down the defense well enough. Better regular season team as they are deep and play hard, but in playoffs everyone plays hard and depth not as big a factor with coaches having more urgency.

[John Kelly]

That's why they won, nothing to do with vast talent differential.

That's why and when the Heat woke up, not why they won.

It also helped that D-Wade had his knee drained after the Game 3 loss in which he scored only five points.

[John Kelly]

Lacking guys that can break down the defense well enough. Better regular season team as they are deep and play hard, but in playoffs everyone plays hard and depth not as big a factor with coaches having more urgency.

Agree.

Indiana doesn't have a "next level."

[IrishTim]

RF is spot on, depth and bench outside the 6th man are irrelevant in the playoffs.

JK, I still have to laugh at the notion that any of that contributed to the outcome of the series. I'm confident that Miami had sufficient motivation before all of that. And wasn't the choke sign in Game 2 anyway?

[IrishTim]

Tim, can I get a prediction on the series line for Boston-Miami?

Away from my computer for the weekend so can't give you the actual number assuming there were no material changes to player production or playoff adjustments (far greater in NBA than MLB and football). My guess right now would be -420.

I will venture a guess of -350, not that I see much of a chance of Boston winning absent an injury to LBJ or Wade.

Just ran the numbers:

Miami -505 vs Boston
Miami -545 vs Philly

[raiders72001]

Just ran the numbers:

Miami -505 vs Boston
Miami -545 vs Philly

what was your Bos/Philly series line?

[kirkmuller]

thanks for the plays Tim.

you model games too?

[royalfan]

I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.

Just ran the numbers:

Miami -505 vs Boston
Miami -545 vs Philly

[John Kelly]

RF is spot on, depth and bench outside the 6th man are irrelevant in the playoffs.

JK, I still have to laugh at the notion that any of that contributed to the outcome of the series. I'm confident that Miami had sufficient motivation before all of that. And wasn't the choke sign in Game 2 anyway?

You haven't watched the Spurs play over the last eight games.

[John Kelly]

what was your Bos/Philly series line?

If memory serves, IT made Boston a ridiculously-low -130.

[John Kelly]

I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.

Not sure the "fear factor" is applicable with today's cocky athletes.

[valdosta]

5dimes has those numbers up already. As expected the Heat are a much bigger fav against Philly than Boston.

[royalfan]

Maybe fear is wrong choice of wording, but you have to believe you can win. I don't think Philly does against Miami. Or won't in a hurry after one ass whooping. Doesn't matter anyway. It will be Boston.

Not sure the "fear factor" is applicable with today's cocky athletes.

[royalfan]

Rare club that doesn't seem to miss a beat no matter who the hell is in the game. Doesn't mean all those players and that depth is essential to them winning though. They could easily be playing as well with more condensed lineup.

You haven't watched the Spurs play over the last eight games.

[Mr. Smith]

philly is something like 1-10 last two years vs Miami. philly has no shot against the heat and they would know it

but I agree they shouldnt get there

[Doughboy]

I will venture a guess of -350, not that I see much of a chance of Boston winning absent an injury to LBJ or Wade.

Well, well, well, just saw this available:

05/26/2012 08:05 PM (EST)

883 884

Boston Celtics (Series) Miami Heat (Series)

+303 -363

[Doughboy]

I can promise you the separation in the chances of winning is much stronger than that. Talent wise no. Fear wise yes. Philly will be too scared. Boston won't be. That is half the battle when playing a great team like the heat. Neither can probably win, barring injury, but Boston with the much better chance. Philly has no way to score when Miami buckles down.

Correct.

05/26/2012 08:05 PM (EST)	883 884	Philadelphia 76ers (Series) Miami Heat (Series)		+425 -550