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Thread: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

  1. #1
    EOG Enthusiast travisdog's Avatar
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    Default Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    I guess this is a Dear John letter.

    What I'm going to say will not make sense to you right off the bat, but please think about it.
    Glisan's picks are more successful because he isn't looking for a needle in a haystack. He keeps it simple. However, John, most of the time (if you replay the radio picks section) your analysis is digging, almost with a flashlight and Scotland Yard cap, peering in the dark looking for something no one else can see.

    Good results will keep it simple. Don't make it so difficult. I recognize this habit of yours because whenever I flip into this super-sleuth method of handicapping, the results are disasterous.

    Think about this now......this method is very, very close to "guessing" or "hunching" a winner. Glisan backs his picks with a solid foundation........for example, "if it aint broke, dont fix it"......"the team is on a hot run".....etc. I hardly ever hear one of your picks taking this route, but rather jumping around with your plaid, inspector cap, in the dark. And that's where too many of your selections need to be, in the dark, locked up and hidden from view.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    I cannot disagree with this analysis.

    Well written too.

    Thanks for contributing, travisdog.

    I could have done without the last sentence but I hear ya.

  3. #3
    EOG 500 Champion Dec. 2013 Paleface's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by travisdog View Post
    I guess this is a Dear John letter.

    What I'm going to say will not make sense to you right off the bat, but please think about it.
    Glisan's picks are more successful because he isn't looking for a needle in a haystack. He keeps it simple. However, John, most of the time (if you replay the radio picks section) your analysis is digging, almost with a flashlight and Scotland Yard cap, peering in the dark looking for something no one else can see.

    Good results will keep it simple. Don't make it so difficult. I recognize this habit of yours because whenever I flip into this super-sleuth method of handicapping, the results are disasterous.

    Think about this now......this method is very, very close to "guessing" or "hunching" a winner. Glisan backs his picks with a solid foundation........for example, "if it aint broke, dont fix it"......"the team is on a hot run".....etc. I hardly ever hear one of your picks taking this route, but rather jumping around with your plaid, inspector cap, in the dark. And that's where too many of your selections need to be, in the dark, locked up and hidden from view.
    He didn't force you to bet the plays dumba$$.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by travisdog View Post
    I guess this is a Dear John letter.

    What I'm going to say will not make sense to you right off the bat, but please think about it.
    Glisan's picks are more successful because he isn't looking for a needle in a haystack. He keeps it simple. However, John, most of the time (if you replay the radio picks section) your analysis is digging, almost with a flashlight and Scotland Yard cap, peering in the dark looking for something no one else can see.

    Good results will keep it simple. Don't make it so difficult. I recognize this habit of yours because whenever I flip into this super-sleuth method of handicapping, the results are disasterous.

    Think about this now......this method is very, very close to "guessing" or "hunching" a winner. Glisan backs his picks with a solid foundation........for example, "if it aint broke, dont fix it"......"the team is on a hot run".....etc. I hardly ever hear one of your picks taking this route, but rather jumping around with your plaid, inspector cap, in the dark. And that's where too many of your selections need to be, in the dark, locked up and hidden from view.
    Good constructive criticism.

  5. #5
    GO Bucks!!! Almost Allright's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Maybe that's Johns make up. some people pour over every detail, some don't. If thats what JK feels comfortable with so be it. Money is in play.

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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Almost Allright View Post
    Maybe that's Johns make up. some people pour over every detail, some don't. If thats what JK feels comfortable with so be it. Money is in play.
    this is what i get for not perusing the entire board after a days work. I respond to a ghost.

  7. #7
    EOG Dedicated Heim's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Glisan is a datamined specialist....'two teams going in different directions' is a fav
    quote of his . I shake my head when he wins. Funny thing is he's been on the
    right side of most of the moves this year. Squares are winning...ask Dinkinson.

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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    Glisan is a datamined specialist....'two teams going in different directions' is a favquote of his . I shake my head when he wins. Funny thing is he's been on the
    right side of most of the moves this year.
    Correct, most of Glisan's "trends" are as datamined and bogus as Mark Lawrence's. Very little substantial analysis.

    Whenever people cite a short record, I'm reminded of Bucsfan67's stellar early MLB record at theRx: 2067-1976, +276.43u while his "regress to the mean" record after 2005 was 3352-3434, -94.00u. A few hundred picks really is a short sample.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    I pride myself on not overreacting to a small sample.

    I also criticize myself when getting too fine or too cute with my analysis.

    AA was right.

    I need to look at all variables in a game.

    That's simply the way I'm wired.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    Glisan is a datamined specialist....'two teams going in different directions' is a fav
    quote of his . I shake my head when he wins. Funny thing is he's been on the
    right side of most of the moves this year. Squares are winning...ask Dinkinson.
    Ask Dinkinson? OMG, you really have no clue what you are talking about. You can't separate a sharp from a square, thats your main problem. I would go head to head with you in a MLB contest and lay you some juice to boot, thats how much of a SQUARE you are. If you think I'm blowing smoke just try me. There are a lot of smart handicappers on this forum but you are not one I would EVER in life be SCARED to go up against. The ball is in your hands. Lets the games begin.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    Ask Dinkinson? OMG, you really have no clue what you are talking about. You can't separate a sharp from a square, thats your main problem. I would go head to head with you in a MLB contest and lay you some juice to boot, thats how much of a SQUARE you are. If you think I'm blowing smoke just try me. There are a lot of smart handicappers on this forum but you are not one I would EVER in life be SCARED to go up against. The ball is in your hands. Lets the games begin.
    Sorry, let the games begin.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Heim?

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Imagine what he might have said to you had he had 6 or 7 posts under his belt.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Deal With It View Post
    Heim?
    He won't get that weak, but he does talk a good game.

  15. #15
    EOG Dedicated Heim's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    Ask Dinkinson? OMG, you really have no clue what you are talking about. You can't separate a sharp from a square, thats your main problem. I would go head to head with you in a MLB contest and lay you some juice to boot, thats how much of a SQUARE you are. If you think I'm blowing smoke just try me. There are a lot of smart handicappers on this forum but you are not one I would EVER in life be SCARED to go up against. The ball is in your hands. Lets the games begin.

    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    I do not understand the criticism. Both make very solid plays and both win over the long term.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.
    I have a lot of RESPECT for you thats why I'm only going to offer you -130 on 30 plays and 30 days. Turn your head upside down and whatever falls out we can bet... You think this is a PRANK, just try me and get your NUTS wet. I will offer you another wager and I know I'm going out on a limb on this one. Lay me 2-1 and I say the Phillies WINS more games than any team in the whole National league the 2nd half. Yes you have the field, if you don't understand that I will explain it to you. Now you have two bets. The ball is still in your hands. Thats my best offers for you today, maybe tomorrow I can come up with a couple more. You are going to need more than betting against a guy on a three day rest to beat me period. I will be waiting since the ball is in your hands.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    For me I like the way JK breaks down a game....it is another way to look at it...

    as far as Glisan.....every time I listed to the radio show......it's like he wins every time.

    I agree what CB said about small samples though.


    the show is great.........change nothing.

  19. #19
    EOG Addicted focker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.
    Please explain what made Lincecum the sharp side?

  20. #20

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    I have a lot of RESPECT for you thats why I'm only going to offer you -130 on 30 plays and 30 days. Turn your head upside down and whatever falls out we can bet... You think this is a PRANK, just try me and get your NUTS wet. I will offer you another wager and I know I'm going out on a limb on this one. Lay me 2-1 and I say the Phillies WINS more games than any team in the whole National league the 2nd half. Yes you have the field, if you don't understand that I will explain it to you. Now you have two bets. The ball is still in your hands. Thats my best offers for you today, maybe tomorrow I can come up with a couple more. You are going to need more than betting against a guy on a three day rest to beat me period. I will be waiting since the ball is in your hands.
    Have you seen the bullpen of the Phillies? Rainbow, don't think you can win that bet, but good luck...

  21. #21

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Viejo Dinosaur View Post
    Have you seen the bullpen of the Phillies? Rainbow, don't think you can win that bet, but good luck...
    A little birdie told me they are going to start scoring a lot of runs.

  22. #22

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by focker View Post
    Please explain what made Lincecum the sharp side?
    The sharp side was the side that won. Heim must have thought the line went down.

  23. #23

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by rainbow View Post
    I have a lot of RESPECT for you thats why I'm only going to offer you -130 on 30 plays and 30 days. Turn your head upside down and whatever falls out we can bet... You think this is a PRANK, just try me and get your NUTS wet. I will offer you another wager and I know I'm going out on a limb on this one. Lay me 2-1 and I say the Phillies WINS more games than any team in the whole National league the 2nd half. Yes you have the field, if you don't understand that I will explain it to you. Now you have two bets. The ball is still in your hands. Thats my best offers for you today, maybe tomorrow I can come up with a couple more. You are going to need more than betting against a guy on a three day rest to beat me period. I will be waiting since the ball is in your hands.
    A little bump for Heim. You can have either bet or both. The clock is TICKING...

  24. #24

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.
    I think you need to go back and look at all the dogs that have won this year at a big price. Where was Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland and the Mets picked at before the season started? Exclude Texas, and the Yankees and a lot of dogs have won.

  25. #25

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.
    If you think streaks don't mean nothing in baseball you are beyond clueless. Thats why I'm offereng you only -130 because I respect your knowledge. You got the ball just give me the word. If you prefer 90 plays in 30 days instead of 30 plays thats fine with me. Whatever you feel comfortable with.

  26. #26

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    When you win you are a genius.When we lose????????????????

  27. #27

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by justintalk View Post
    When you win you are a genius.When we lose????????????????
    There are only a couple of percentage points between genius and idiot.

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    I'm no Dave Cokin sharp wise but will offer 2 cents. 1st - I like J K's analysis and Davids too. 2 diff eyes on games, and both make sense to me.

    Heim- some of you guys really need to lighten up. He provides matter of fact sharp notes and angles on his plays. Nice hit on the last one I saw BTW, the BJ's + 130 vs CWS. I am a "feel" bettor. If I feel it, and it makes sense to me, I bet it. That made for an extra nice vacation in Tahoe. A coupla nice dinners.

    Some of you "keyboard" loud mouths should understand: That commercial about acting like a tough guy may lead others to test your mettle. And, for 97% of you I don't think so.

    Just sayin, Lighten the fuck up

  29. #29

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    I'm no Dave Cokin sharp wise but will offer 2 cents. 1st - I like J K's analysis and Davids too. 2 diff eyes on games, and both make sense to me.

    Heim- some of you guys really need to lighten up. He provides matter of fact sharp notes and angles on his plays. Nice hit on the last one I saw BTW, the BJ's + 130 vs CWS. I am a "feel" bettor. If I feel it, and it makes sense to me, I bet it. That made for an extra nice vacation in Tahoe. A coupla nice dinners.

    Some of you "keyboard" loud mouths should understand: That commercial about acting like a tough guy may lead others to test your mettle. And, for 97% of you I don't think so.

    Just sayin, Lighten the fuck up
    I'm not trying to be a tough guy. I simply offered Heim -130 in a contest and I don't care if Fezzik are whoever helps him. I can back myself up, I dont offer SOMETHING unless I can back myself up. I just hate pretenders. Heim in my book is as square as they come if I didn't think that I sure wouldn't be offering him -130. The clock is TICKING...

  30. #30

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Heim View Post
    'Squares are winning.......ask Dinkinson' cannot be more straight forward. The guys
    laying -130 with Burnett are winning he's not with Lincecum (sharp side) and so on.
    I gave you a shot with Phillies +155 to make the playoffs....you (wisely) turned it
    down after wanting to know 'where you could get down on it (bad price)'. You made
    a 'square' post about (mlb) streaks the other day and naturally my side at +140 won.
    (who the fuck lays -150 with Bedard). You're picking on the wrong guy.....I bust my
    butt most days trying to stay ahead of the game in LV. I don't have the best clue but
    a decent one. I'm probably not the best guy to try and call out on mlb.
    I forgot to mention when I quoted to this post that you waited till the Phillies lost 9 out of 10 games before you offered me that bet. You have a big set about the size of BB's. Heim, the clock is TICKING! -130 is looking at you in the eyes. I don't blame you if you back down, if I was a SQUARE I would probably make the same decision. You are going to need more than busting your butt most days and betting against pitchers on 3 day rest to beat me PERIOD. You will see how SMART you think you are if you ever decide to get weak enough and buck heads against me. You think I'm picking on the wrong guy?LOL. I'm just picking on a SQUARE, in my books I'm picking on the right guy. I grew up as a hustler. You mean well, but you are a cold turkey square. One more time! The clock is TICKING! What are you going to do with the ball? No hard feelings if you back out, I already know why if that happens.

  31. #31

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks


  32. #32

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Quote Originally Posted by John Kelly View Post
    I'm serious as a heart attack. I'm ready for another contest.

  33. #33
    EOG Addicted focker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks


  34. #34

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Looks like a 3-0 night for team EOG. Glisan wins almost every day and won again with the Yankees and Edmonton, and JK with another WNBA winner--the Sky. Hard to believe the hosts are currently in Chicago and South Carolina because the chemistry is outstanding. Best radio sports talk show in Las Vegas!


  35. #35

    Default Re: Glisan / Kelly radio picks

    Nice picks guys. I wonder where Heim Dissappeared to? I didn't mean to run him off. Maybe he's practicing to see if he has a slim chance against me. You would think he would take me up on me laying him 13-10. If he wasn't scared of me we would have already had the money posted-up and the contest off and running. I'm not mad at him for not wanting to donate money to me...LOL...

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