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AFLGuru · 09-20-05, 03:07 PM

My favorite time of year... Cup time... People blow upsets out of proportion as if they happen all over the board, but in truth, a few teams will get upset, while most will waltz their way through to the next round... Almost like March Madness... There are those 3 or 4 teams that are ranked 12-16 who pull upsets in round 1... one of those usually makes it through to the Sweet 16, along with another 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed, sometimes 2... but they're all gone by the Elite 8... Same concept here... most of the teams that should roll, at least win, albeit closer than some might think. Taking home teams here +1.5 is a very good bet in most instances, but there is better value on not having to sweat teams giving up that late goal to make a 1-0 winning final a 2-0 losing final... By no means am I a soccer capper, but I follow the English leagues a bit and have spoken to a very respected capper "across the street"... here's what we came up with.

Norwich (-173) 5Dimes
Charlton (-369) 5Dimes
Aston Villa (-175) Olympic
Tottenham (-261) 5Dimes

Wigan (-191) 5Dimes
Leeds (+127) 5Dimes or (pk) -149 at Olympic

Southampton (-140) 5Dimes

Best of these selections are probably Charlton and Aston Villa, though if there's a game that's got 5-0 written all over it, it's Tottenham... but Tottenham is taking on a team on a good run of late, albeit 3 divisions lower, making -261 very good odds offered by 5Dimes.

Sober Leprechaun · 09-21-05, 08:36 PM

i can't lay the chalk on these. the easier they seem, the more likely the upset. for example the man u-exeter shock tie last year, and man city's flameout today.

AFLGuru · 09-21-05, 08:58 PM

Today was freaky because Fulham blew a 2-0 lead headed to ET in the last 20 minutes of the match... but if Fulham had held on and you had put $100 down on the favorite in all 3 matches today, you would have lost $25. Obviously it didn't happen that way, but I also didn't say to take every "better" team on the board. The fact of the matter says if you dropped $100 (and that's $100 base by the way) on each of these games yesterday, though Tottenham would have been a painful pill to swallow, one still would have been a winner on the day, and that's all that you can ask for.

09-20-05, 03:07 PM	#1
AFLGuru EOG "Gentleman" Join Date: Aug 22, 2005 Posts: 215	English Carling Cup Tuesday My favorite time of year... Cup time... People blow upsets out of proportion as if they happen all over the board, but in truth, a few teams will get upset, while most will waltz their way through to the next round... Almost like March Madness... There are those 3 or 4 teams that are ranked 12-16 who pull upsets in round 1... one of those usually makes it through to the Sweet 16, along with another 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed, sometimes 2... but they're all gone by the Elite 8... Same concept here... most of the teams that should roll, at least win, albeit closer than some might think. Taking home teams here +1.5 is a very good bet in most instances, but there is better value on not having to sweat teams giving up that late goal to make a 1-0 winning final a 2-0 losing final... By no means am I a soccer capper, but I follow the English leagues a bit and have spoken to a very respected capper "across the street"... here's what we came up with. Norwich (-173) 5Dimes Charlton (-369) 5Dimes Aston Villa (-175) Olympic Tottenham (-261) 5Dimes Wigan (-191) 5Dimes Leeds (+127) 5Dimes or (pk) -149 at Olympic Southampton (-140) 5Dimes Best of these selections are probably Charlton and Aston Villa, though if there's a game that's got 5-0 written all over it, it's Tottenham... but Tottenham is taking on a team on a good run of late, albeit 3 divisions lower, making -261 very good odds offered by 5Dimes.

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09-21-05, 08:36 PM	#2
Sober Leprechaun EOG Enthusiast Join Date: Sep 21, 2005 Posts: 204	i can't lay the chalk on these. the easier they seem, the more likely the upset. for example the man u-exeter shock tie last year, and man city's flameout today.

09-21-05, 08:58 PM	#3
AFLGuru EOG "Gentleman" Join Date: Aug 22, 2005 Posts: 215	Today was freaky because Fulham blew a 2-0 lead headed to ET in the last 20 minutes of the match... but if Fulham had held on and you had put $100 down on the favorite in all 3 matches today, you would have lost $25. Obviously it didn't happen that way, but I also didn't say to take every "better" team on the board. The fact of the matter says if you dropped $100 (and that's $100 base by the way) on each of these games yesterday, though Tottenham would have been a painful pill to swallow, one still would have been a winner on the day, and that's all that you can ask for.