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  • Talk me out of it

    Why wouldnt I lay -400 on the indians to win the central? Im not going to go into a ton of detail but I had planned on having to lay 650-800. Ive never seen a division in MLB as long as Ive been betting it that has 3 teams that might struggle to win 70 games all in the same division. Royals, tigers and white sox on paper look to be dumpster fires.
    Its priced low enough to give me pause. Its like week 2 of a season and you make a total 62 and it opens 49.. wtf did I miss here?!
    Minnesota is the only threat but no Santana for 3 months, berrios was not to be trusted last year. Even if they grab Arrieta they still have the #26 Projected bullpen and are hoping to rotate in some of their prospects throughout the season.

    Anyone object? State why please before I tie up 4 (im shy with my bet size in mlb) units until October.

  • #2
    Re: Talk me out of it

    no.

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    • #3
      Re: Talk me out of it

      I would buy bitcoin before I lay -400 on anything, 25 pct interest on 8 months no thanks.

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      • #4
        Re: Talk me out of it

        PECOTA projects the Indians will win the AL Central by 16 games.

        The only possible snag: The curse of Chief Wahoo.

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        • #5
          Re: Talk me out of it

          If you were playing that -400, I would wait until after Arrieta signs, Minn is one of the teams he may go to. In that case, you can get a little better price on Cle if he signs with Minn.
          Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
          -

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          • #6
            Re: Talk me out of it

            Looking at last year, Indians could take the first half off like the Cubs did because you better believe that Cleveland clubhouse is going to know they're all but sure to get a spot in the final 8. That'll make you sweat, but it's a long season, the cream usually rises to the top after 162.

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            • #7
              Re: Talk me out of it

              I remember the bizarre scene early last season at Wrigley Field when some of the Cub players made their way through the bleachers to raise the World Series flag.

              Seemed odd and you could tell there would be a different feel for the defending champs in 2017.

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              • #8
                Re: Talk me out of it

                I see no upside to anyone on the Twins roster other than Buxton. Santana is hurt, Miguel Sano got his leg rebuilt with titanium, Fernando Rodney is 62 years old and Phillip Hughes is gonna pitch every 5 days until someone beaks him with a 250 mph line drive.

                Spend your money, think I'll join you.
                How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

                Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

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                • #9
                  Re: Talk me out of it

                  Astros
                  Indians
                  Yankees

                  Red Sox
                  Angels

                  Nationals
                  Cubs
                  Dodgers

                  Diamondbacks
                  Cardinals

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                  • #10
                    Re: Talk me out of it

                    laying -400 to wait 8 months for a decision? There are -300 to -450 during the season get results in 3 hours and you have the lineups!

                    kershaw opened at cris -360 & CGT opened at -410 same game vs padres opening game.....kershaw/dodgers win 14-3 in 3 hours ...closing line at south point -350...

                    too much energy wasted on a few bets 8 months from now..... zone in more on march and april could be up more

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                    • #11
                      Re: Talk me out of it

                      another note... rather look for the new cat that is hiding in the bushes in april .......meaning the month of april is the best time for prices on dogs before everybody turns them into favorites.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Talk me out of it

                        Originally posted by MrTop View Post
                        another note... rather look for the new cat that is hiding in the bushes in april .......meaning the month of april is the best time for prices on dogs before everybody turns them into favorites.
                        Agree.
                        Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
                        -

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Talk me out of it

                          Originally posted by MrTop View Post
                          laying -400 to wait 8 months for a decision? There are -300 to -450 during the season get results in 3 hours and you have the lineups!

                          kershaw opened at cris -360 & CGT opened at -410 same game vs padres opening game.....kershaw/dodgers win 14-3 in 3 hours ...closing line at south point -350...

                          too much energy wasted on a few bets 8 months from now..... zone in more on march and april could be up more

                          You don't see more volatility in a single game scenario than a dominant team over a season?

                          You'd have to scramble to get enough money down on Cleveland without dropping the price. Certainly not the kind of money worth worrying about being tied up.
                          How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

                          Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Talk me out of it

                            I bit on astros-160 to win the AL west.

                            Im not high on dodgers/dbacks as I thought Id be. Thats a extremely competitive division.
                            Cubs feel priced right where I assumed after Darvish signjng. Also a good division. Not a buyer of yankees their D metrics dont pan out well theyll need to stay healthy and hit for power consistently hard to predict both easily. My sox unless they sign a big FA are powerless and that bullpen outside of closer is awful also think Pomerantz regresses.

                            I actually am looking to back Toronto as dogs if Guerrero/bichette show me something and Tulo could actually play even 115 games. They lose Bautista which is a huge + in my eyes. Not for the division but 79 wins will see you ahead at the end of the season I believe. Baltimore is a garage sale at asb. Expect jones and machado to go.

                            Washington priced-60 to -80 seemed low to me but they are one elbow away from having basically 4 #4s in their rotation and have done next to nothing to make me believe that bullpen is any better. I dont mind the thought of laying 60 and then betting under 94 rsws that division is awful although phils and mets are improved some in my eyes.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Talk me out of it

                              Originally posted by billysink View Post
                              You don't see more volatility in a single game scenario than a dominant team over a season?

                              You'd have to scramble to get enough money down on Cleveland without dropping the price. Certainly not the kind of money worth worrying about being tied up.


                              i never said that.... i am just stating the odds if milkshake is in love betting big odds with same return..... I subscribed to don best more than 20 yrs and moved some money in my day in baseball and know odds move.

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