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The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

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  • The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

    Interestingly, all four 5-12 showdowns will take place west of the Mississippi this season with two games in Boise and two games in San Diego.

    The way the tournament is structured, there are two inherent reasons the #12 seed is dangerous against the #5 seed every season.

    1) The tournament committee "protects" the top 16 teams in the tournament (seeds 1-4) with sites that are generally favorable to the home team, thus leaving the #5 seeds on the cutting room floor.

    2) The tournament committee "reserves" the bottom four seeds in each bracket (seeds 13-16) with lowly-rated automatic qualifiers so the #12 seeds are typically the best of the automatic qualifiers.

  • #2
    Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

    William Hill priced the #5 seeds as follows:

    Clemson -4.5

    Kentucky -6

    Ohio State -7.5

    West Virginia -10

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

      5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.
      Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
      -

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

        At William Hill, no lower-seeded team opened the favorite over a team with a more favorable seed.

        Usually, there's a #9 seed or #10 seed that opens the fave.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

          Originally posted by FairWarning View Post
          5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.
          Indeed.

          The #5 seeds fall prey to the falling knife syndrome.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

            Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
            Indeed.

            The #5 seeds fall prey to the falling knife syndrome .
            I remember ND in that 5 seed losing to Winthrop. The 5’s as a falling knife is a good analogy. The weakest one this year appears to be Ohio St. I would love to take SD St but that’s a pretty weak conference.
            Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
            -

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

              I saw the Jackrabbits play in Sioux Falls and they shot the lights out. 14 of 28 on 3’s and 21 of 26 on ft’s.

              Daum is 6’10” and I do not think you need to guard him with a big guy. I am really curious what OSU does.

              It will be a fun game and the Bunnies will need to hit 15 x 3’s at least and stay out of foul trouble!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                Originally posted by Bucky View Post
                I saw the Jackrabbits play in Sioux Falls and they shot the lights out. 14 of 28 on 3’s and 21 of 26 on ft’s.

                Daum is 6’10” and I do not think you need to guard him with a big guy. I am really curious what OSU does.

                It will be a fun game and the Bunnies will need to hit 15 x 3’s at least and stay out of foul trouble!

                The Big Ten had issues this season.

                Only four teams from a 14-team conference made the tournament.

                I'd look to fade Big Ten reps, not support them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                  Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                  The Big Ten had issues this season.

                  Only four teams from a 14-team conference made the tournament.

                  I'd look to fade Big Ten reps, not support them.
                  It will be interesting to see how those teams perform with an extra week of rest. I can see them coming out rusty in the first half of their openers but MSU and Purdue are big favorites so it shouldn't matter too much and will be an overall benefit. OSU would appear to be the most vulnerable, having not played since March 2 and finishing the year on a 1-4 ATS run. Michigan probably didn't want the layoff; being on a 9 game winning streak (and 8-1 ATS run).

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

                    Originally posted by FairWarning View Post
                    5 seeds are usually a 3-4 place team in a power conference while most 12 seeds are also from those power conferences, or a midmajor who won their conference.
                    Hey FW, do you follow and/or have any comment on Loyola-Chi? I watched them play in their tourney and was impressed. I see they have upper class men logging most of their time with a freshman in there. I am going to try a small play here vs Miami.
                    Last edited by Pigpen; 03-13-18, 11:17 AM. Reason: Team

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                    • #11
                      Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                      Daum will take 10 x 3 point shots for sure. I think he is similar to McDermott who played at Creighton. The over feels the best to me on this game. Tellinghuisen can hit shots. The key for them is the scramble after the 3 point shots can be somewhat lucky on how the ball comes off.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                        Thanks for sharing, Bucky.

                        I appreciate your insight.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                          My boys are extremely vulnerable

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: The 5-12 matchups this season

                            Originally posted by Pigpen View Post
                            Hey FW, do you follow and/or have any comment on Loyola-Chi? I watched them play in their tourney and was impressed. I see they have upper class men logging most of their time with a freshman in there. I am going to try a small play here vs Miami.
                            I was playing Miami. I hope the Ramblers win but it seems like there is a lot of love for them at a near pick.
                            Michael Jordan isn't anywhere near as athletic as lebron James. Jordan wouldn't even be a top 20 athlete in the game right now in his prime. - Cleveland Homer Big Deemer
                            -

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                              The 5-12 betting prop at Station Casinos: Will a #12 seed win a game in the NCAA Tournament? Yes -300 No +240.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                                Give me as much as -900 I have three #12 seeds advancing over a 5. At least if not win, cover with Kentucky the only one advancing which I also had to think about.

                                Now if we can only get JK to check his PM's once in a blue moon.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                                  Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                  Interestingly, all four 5-12 showdowns will take place west of the Mississippi this season with two games in Boise and two games in San Diego.

                                  The way the tournament is structured, there are two inherent reasons the #12 seed is dangerous against the #5 seed every season.

                                  1) The tournament committee "protects" the top 16 teams in the tournament (seeds 1-4) with sites that are generally favorable to the home team, thus leaving the #5 seeds on the cutting room floor.

                                  2) The tournament committee "reserves" the bottom four seeds in each bracket (seeds 13-16) with lowly-rated automatic qualifiers so the #12 seeds are typically the best of the automatic qualifiers.
                                  Very good points, JK.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                                    Originally posted by jimmythegreek View Post
                                    Give me as much as -900 I have three #12 seeds advancing over a 5. At least if not win, cover with Kentucky the only one advancing which I also had to think about.

                                    Now if we can only get JK to check his PM's once in a blue moon.
                                    Give me until later tonight to respond.

                                    Not an expert on the tech side of things here.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Re: The 5-12 matchups this season and every season

                                      The Bunnies gave the Buckeyes a good game - they were right there. I think Daum has a shot T being a pro. What do you guys think?

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