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  • A gambler's dilemma

    Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

    How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

    Sports bettors who play underdogs always think about losing to the number in overtime, horseplayers think negatively or lack confidence when spreading themselves too thin and covering too many numbers in multi-race wagers and poker players are always thinking about the number of possible cards or "outs" to get beat "on the river."

    I'm a positive person by nature but gambling is tough on the psyche.

  • #2
    Re: A gambler's dilemma

    Three plays today and three losers.

    Failed to pull the trigger on Arrieta and/or OVER in the Phillies/Rays game.

    #Snakebit

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    • #3
      Re: A gambler's dilemma

      if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for action or -EV, then slow way down, it's just for fun and entertainment then.

      tell yourself that but never wager enough to put your mind on tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less than your Kelly calculator. know your brain chemistry on losses. the brain acts differently on wins. you value them much less than you hate the loss of a same amount.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: A gambler's dilemma

        Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
        if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for aciton or -EV then well slow way down its just for fun and entertainment then.

        tell your self that but never wager enough to put your mind in tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less then your Kelly calculator. know your own brain chemistry on losses. the brain different on wins you value them much less, than you hate the loss of a same amount.

        Excellent advice, Try3.

        Who doesn't hate to lose?

        I think we're all professional competitors by nature.

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        • #5
          Re: A gambler's dilemma

          Forget today, prep for tomorrow. I believe you have to eliminate all emotion from gambling...takes some of the fun out of it when winning but certainly helps when you had a day like today.

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          • #6
            Re: A gambler's dilemma

            Being a pessimist is why I’d rather find value in favorites than value in underdogs.

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            • #7
              Re: A gambler's dilemma

              favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A gambler's dilemma

                Originally posted by Brayden11 View Post
                Forget today, prep for tomorrow. I believe you have to eliminate all emotion from gambling...takes some of the fun out of it when winning but certainly helps when you had a day like today.

                I'll take your advice.

                Feel the Pacers +6.5 is Sunday's best play.

                I'll sit stonefaced through the entire 48-minute game.

                Forget today, prep for tomorrow is an excellent line.

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                • #9
                  Re: A gambler's dilemma

                  Originally posted by waco View Post
                  favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.

                  The underdogs in Major League Baseball are waiting for, you guessed it, the dog days of summer.

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                  • #10
                    Re: A gambler's dilemma

                    Originally posted by waco View Post
                    favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.
                    How far can you go back, I'd be curious what the data shows over the past 2 years. Big fan of the medium sized baseball dog especially when you feel you're getting the best of it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: A gambler's dilemma

                      Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                      if you play +ROI situations long term none of that matters. just feel confident in what your doing.. if playing for aciton or -EV then well slow way down its just for fun and entertainment then.

                      tell your self that but never wager enough to put your mind in tilt or over frustration and that amount might be quite a bit less then your Kelly calculator. know your own brain chemistry on losses. the brain different on wins you value them much less, than you hate the loss of a same amount.
                      "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: A gambler's dilemma

                        Originally posted by railbird View Post
                        "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.
                        very true

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: A gambler's dilemma

                          Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

                          -FH-

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                          • #14
                            Re: A gambler's dilemma

                            Originally posted by railbird View Post
                            "positive roi longterm" is a nice phrase, but a crutch phrase for many morons that are delusional of actually having a positive roi.

                            Birdie delivered a great line last year when saying, "Stay positive in your gambling approach but think negative when handicapping the games."

                            Betting against teams in turmoil, finding injuries no one else knows about, contradicting the mainstream narrative, etc.

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                            • #15
                              Re: A gambler's dilemma

                              Originally posted by Sol Diablo View Post
                              Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

                              -FH-

                              The approach works great if you think the market is an efficient one.

                              NFL, check...NBA, check...but I'm not sure I'd trust any other sport.

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                              • #16
                                Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                The approach works great if you think the market is an efficient one.

                                NFL, check...NBA, check...but I'm not sure I'd trust any other sport.
                                MLB no check?

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                                • #17
                                  Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                  Originally posted by Brayden11 View Post
                                  MLB no check?
                                  MLB definitely a CHECK.

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                                  • #18
                                    Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                    Same weather in Chicago tomorrow for the cubs game. Pitchers looked very uncomfortable today. Chatwood looks very uncomfortable in perfect weather. So naturally he will throw a gem tomorrow.

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                                    • #19
                                      Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                      Originally posted by Sol Diablo View Post
                                      MLB definitely a CHECK.
                                      Id say so.

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                                      • #20
                                        Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                        Originally posted by JavyBaez9 View Post
                                        Same weather in Chicago tomorrow for the cubs game. Pitchers looked very uncomfortable today. Chatwood looks very uncomfortable in perfect weather. So naturally he will throw a gem tomorrow.
                                        Lot of pitchers who rely on breaking stuff don't like pitching in the cold, loss of feel. Hated playing in the 30 degree spring days of Wisconsin as a youngster.

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                                        • #21
                                          Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                          Originally posted by Brayden11 View Post
                                          How far can you go back, I'd be curious what the data shows over the past 2 years. Big fan of the medium sized baseball dog especially when you feel you're getting the best of it.

                                          Sports database goes back like 10 years. You can search almost any scenario on that site. It is quite a tool.

                                          Trust me, playing dogs has not been profitable in any sport, but baseball has probably been the worst.

                                          Gamblers need to get rid of these preconceived notions of " home dogs" or "medium favorites"
                                          Etc.

                                          The problem is all you hear are shitty touts so we are stuck with these shitty trains of thought.

                                          I stopped listening to gambling pods for this reason.
                                          "Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie, but we gotta fight"
                                          -Slim Charles (also the new motto of pregame.com)

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                            Originally posted by Sol Diablo View Post
                                            Stop trying to pick winners. Play numbers. It's a math game.

                                            -FH-
                                            FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                              Originally posted by Brayden11 View Post
                                              Lot of pitchers who rely on breaking stuff don't like pitching in the cold, loss of feel. Hated playing in the 30 degree spring days of Wisconsin as a youngster.
                                              Doesn’t help theyve made the balls slicker, lots of pitchers have complained of different seems last few years.

                                              Fuck manfred

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                                              • #24
                                                Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                Originally posted by Inkwell77 View Post
                                                Sports database goes back like 10 years. You can search almost any scenario on that site. It is quite a tool.

                                                Trust me, playing dogs has not been profitable in any sport, but baseball has probably been the worst.

                                                Gamblers need to get rid of these preconceived notions of " home dogs" or "medium favorites"
                                                Etc.

                                                The problem is all you hear are shitty touts so we are stuck with these shitty trains of thought.

                                                I stopped listening to gambling pods for this reason.

                                                I would disagree that there's no value in playing dogs, plenty of subsets will be profitable.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                  was all in pre flop twice last night

                                                  AQ vs. A2
                                                  AK vs. KJ

                                                  lost both

                                                  fuk gambling
                                                  The real women sport expert

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                    Originally posted by Sleepy View Post
                                                    was all in pre flop twice last night

                                                    AQ vs. A2
                                                    AK vs. KJ

                                                    lost both

                                                    fuk gambling
                                                    Thats variance. I'd play those hands all day long with a smile on my face.

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                      Originally posted by Sleepy View Post
                                                      was all in pre flop twice last night

                                                      AQ vs. A2
                                                      AK vs. KJ

                                                      lost both

                                                      fuk gambling

                                                      Thanks for checking in, Sleepy.

                                                      Bad beats in poker are tough to stomach.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                        Originally posted by waco View Post
                                                        favorites in baseball are 118-80. If you bet 500 on every dog, you are -7260.
                                                        If you bet to win 500 on every favorite - how did it turn out after the juice?

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                          Originally posted by railbird View Post
                                                          FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida
                                                          Of course he is a non-handicapper. That's not his element whatsoever.

                                                          I'll stop short at calling him mentally ill though. I have no idea on that. Just as good of a chance at that as the rest of us.

                                                          It is a numbers game if you want to show a profit. It's a grind. You can win long term doing that and staying disciplined. What a boring fucking gambling life though...

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                            Originally posted by railbird View Post
                                                            FH has no choice but to say this, he is a non handicapper. He is a mentally ill slot player like steve paddock and mark brigida
                                                            Who is Mark Brigida?

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                              Aint no big deal, you'll get em tomorrow.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                What i have found is that your absolute best, hottest streak is often followed by a huge debacle, and each time it happens you say, "I wont let that happen next time". And when you're running bad, it's just a matter of time before it changes, you just have to have the cash to ride it out.

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                  When winning at the racetrack, I'll sometimes catch myself before I make an over-aggressive bet, a so-called heat check.

                                                                  Those wagers by definition never win.

                                                                  Or else, the wager would have been considered part of your winning streak.

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                    Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                    When winning at the racetrack, I'll sometimes catch myself before I make an over-aggressive bet, a so-called heat check.

                                                                    Those wagers by definition never win.

                                                                    Or else, the wager would have been considered part of your winning streak.
                                                                    Yup, you think, "shit man, I'm red hot, I'll just double this streak up and I'll be on easy street."

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                      Never saw a street named "Easy."

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                        Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                        Never saw a street named "Easy."
                                                                        Touchee!

                                                                        Comment


                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                          Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                          Here's a tough question for sports bettors, horseplayers and poker enthusiasts:

                                                                          How do you stay positive outside the gambling arena despite painting every worst-case scenario and fearing the worst when inside the gambling world?

                                                                          If you're fearing the worst this might be the wrong pursuit...... fear is a horrible tool to carve out a future in the gambling world.

                                                                          You're asking a very general question to what will be a very individualized answer. No two of us are alike.

                                                                          I think what would help most is to be 100% honest with yourself. From there you know what you can expect.

                                                                          If you're a pro and making +EV wagers then you know over the long run you will get the best of it. There should be some comfort there.

                                                                          If you're not a professional then you know (or you should) that this is just a hobby, you are going to lose over the long run....

                                                                          Thus prepare bet size, frequency of wagering and so on until it's something you are very comfortable with.

                                                                          Expect and plan to lose, because you're going to in the long run. Knowledge is power.

                                                                          For me this works. I'm involved with pari-mutuals I KNOW I'm going to lose. I take what I expect is gone and go drink beer and have fun at a matinee. Same with craps.

                                                                          Poker I KNOW I'm going to win. When some old lady pulls a miracle 46-1 shot out on the river it stings a little but easy to be a good sport because I know the future...

                                                                          May not be from her but I'm going to get my hourly rate by the end of the year.

                                                                          Summation? For me knowing when I'm supposed to lose, when I'm supposed to win, creates comfort, peace of mind....

                                                                          What and how it happens from there is very easy to accept and would never change my overall outlook away from gambling.

                                                                          If you're a positive person overall then you are doing something wrong if gambling is causing you to be negative in other areas of your life.

                                                                          We move on.

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                            Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                            Never saw a street named "Easy."

                                                                            Hahaha.....

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                              Press enter on wagers go to gym put pin at bottom of stack and crush

                                                                              Forget about. everything
                                                                              How you better than somebody? Cuz you said so? Naw man, don't work that way. Sun shine on everybody ass just the same. Get up off your chair and get some.

                                                                              Captain Old Earl Johnson Natchez Miss.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Re: A gambler's dilemma

                                                                                I asked this same question of you and Dink on your radio show some years ago. I have no problem with the bad beats and what it does to my bank account I have always struggled with how they affect my personality.

                                                                                It is almost impossible to go through a downswing and not let it affect your everyday interactions with people. You could have the sweetest woman on earth, the best friends, a great dog, family but the last thing I want is any of them telling me about their lives when I just had a 19 yr old kick a 50 yarder to send it to overtime when I have the under.

                                                                                I am a sweater. I watch almost every bet. I stay up until 3 am nightly this time of year. I awake at 10. I schedule my whole day around tiring my mind from the nights before capping, poker or even the result.

                                                                                Whatever I do (gym, hike, yoga, cooking class, date, friends at bowling) I intend to get done by 4. I watch every single game I bet from start to finish. I take notes on the game. I just began doing this in nba because it was my first year and I was working with someone who's made his entire nut from nba. Do this! Or dont watch at all. If you arent learning something from what you see maybe you're just gambling because you really want to be entertained.
                                                                                If entertainment is what you're after there are alot of cheaper methods.

                                                                                As for bad nights/days/weeks/months. Mental state of mind/balance.
                                                                                1. Listen to stand up. Laughing is essential during a downswing. Ill listen to Louis CK, Chris rock, whoever. I find miserable comics to be the best. They make feeling shitty fun.
                                                                                2. Hang out with non gamblers. Talk politics, talk about crazy exes, go to the gym together who cares. They don't know who Craig Bohl is and don't give a damn that he continually costs me money.
                                                                                3. Hate to go Barry Greenstein on ya but have sex or get some affection of some kind. That should probably be ahead of stand up, my bad.
                                                                                4. Exercise. I lost 30 pounds on a downswing. No B.S. girlfriend dumped me and I couldn't pick a mlb winner to save my life. I went to the gym every single day for 5 months. 1-3 hours a day. Every bet I made I didn't like (+clv but unsure opinion) I would go to the gym and analyze it after every rep or on the bike, treadmill. Yoga is better but expensive and harder to do everyday if you are doing serious venyasa.
                                                                                Anyway get the body moving and so will the mind.

                                                                                Lastly do this everyday. Do something you just love to fucking do.
                                                                                Eat the extra slice
                                                                                Go see any band you want and who cares goes with.
                                                                                Buy a video game and play it all day
                                                                                Make fun of your friends
                                                                                Smoke a j. Have a shot.
                                                                                Book a trip you cant afford to take.
                                                                                Buy a dog (better yet adopt two) and use it to get shallow women.
                                                                                Sleep until noon
                                                                                Watch funny tv all day.
                                                                                You do something you love to do everyday and eventually your handicapping will improve. Happiness and winners go hand in hand.

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