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Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

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  • #41
    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

    Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

    Justify +110
    Field -140
    The right price is:

    Justify -110
    Field -120


    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

    Comment


    • #42
      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

      Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
      You need to take into consideration the millions of dollars that will be bet on Justify for souvenir tickets that will NEVER be cashed.


      Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
      For sure. Guessing betting him to place could pay more than to win because of that. But at the places where I can bet the no I'm guessing I don't get better than +150.

      Comment


      • #43
        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

        Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
        The right price is:

        Justify -110
        Field -120


        Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
        OK so you agree with me.

        Comment


        • #44
          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

          Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
          5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

          Justify +110
          Field -140
          Fuck me. Mr Kelly got me excited thinking I was going to get some good+ money on this.

          Comment


          • #45
            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

            Originally posted by raycabino View Post
            OK so you agree with me.
            My 9 to 10 price on Justify in the Belmont would be 10.6 to 10 without the 18% takeout.


            Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

            Comment


            • #46
              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

              I thought he should have won by 2-3, fractions weren't taxing. He looked to be inching away at the top of the stretch and he had 4 lengths on pressers....if he runs like he did today he isn't winning the Belmont.

              Comment


              • #47
                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                My 9 to 10 price on Justify in the Belmont would be 10.6 to 10 without the 18% takeout.


                Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                By 9 to 10 you mean $2.20 payout correct?

                Comment


                • #48
                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                  I could be misunderstanding what you are saying.

                  Comment


                  • #49
                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                    Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                    By 9 to 10 you mean $2.20 payout correct?
                    $3.80.

                    1 to 9 is $2.20.


                    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                    Comment


                    • #50
                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                      Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                      I could be misunderstanding what you are saying.
                      And I could be saying it wrong.

                      I predicted EXACTLY TO THE CENT what the odds on Justify would be in the Kentucky Derby.

                      Justify will go off at 9 to 10 and pay $3.80 to win if he crosses the wire first in the Belmont.


                      Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                      Comment


                      • #51
                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                        Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                        $3.80.

                        1 to 9 is $2.20.


                        Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                        Ok. Yeah I agree with that. Thought he may even go shorter than that at the track but thought he'd be even money or so on the exchanges.

                        Comment


                        • #52
                          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                          Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                          And I could be saying it wrong.

                          I predicted EXACTLY TO THE CENT what the odds on Justify would be in the Kentucky Derby.

                          Justify will go off at 9 to 10 and pay $3.80 to win if he crosses the wire first.


                          Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                          Gun to head you won't get that good at the track for the very reason you stated about the souvenirs combined with people just wanting to root for the triple crown bets.

                          Comment


                          • #53
                            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                            Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                            Ray, I'm sweating my Boston-Cleveland total through your in-game number at CRIS.

                            Easier than adding the two scores and looking at the time remaining.
                            Pretty rough there.

                            Comment


                            • #54
                              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                              Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                              Gun to head you won't get that good at the track for the very reason you stated about the souvenirs combined with people just wanting to root for the triple crown bets.
                              The "computer guys" will come with a "value bet" late like they did today in the Preakness with Good Magic.

                              That will push Justify from 4 to 5 to 9 to 10 right before the gate opens.


                              Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                              Comment


                              • #55
                                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                                Fuck me. Mr Kelly got me excited thinking I was going to get some good+ money on this.
                                https://mobile.twitter.com/OddsShark...77227328450560

                                early money was on the field.

                                Comment


                                • #56
                                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                  Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                  Let me re-think my position for a moment.

                                  Would Baffert scratch a horse on the doorstep of racing immortality?
                                  he would not scratch if entered. but perhaps not nominate for the race.

                                  Comment


                                  • #57
                                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                    Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
                                    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

                                    Justify +110
                                    Field -140
                                    is that a future or does it stipulate Justify has to start in the race or no action?

                                    Comment


                                    • #58
                                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                      Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
                                      On Justify I think. Wasn't he +110 at 5 dimes before?

                                      Comment


                                      • #59
                                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                        Originally posted by trytrytry View Post
                                        is that a future or does it stipulate Justify has to start in the race or no action?
                                        Justify has to start

                                        Comment


                                        • #60
                                          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                          Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                                          On Justify I think. Wasn't he +110 at 5 dimes before?
                                          early price was Justify -120

                                          Comment


                                          • #61
                                            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                            Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
                                            early price was Justify -120
                                            Nothing better than watching the sharps and wiseguys turning a favorite into an underdog.

                                            Do they ever win those?


                                            Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                                            Comment


                                            • #62
                                              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                              Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                                              The "computer guys" will come with a "value bet" late like they did today in the Preakness with Good Magic.

                                              That will push Justify from 4 to 5 to 9 to 10 right before the gate opens.


                                              Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                                              sharp post. Good MAgic
                                              he went from 14% in the pool all afternoon to a tad over 16.6% in the final 5 minutes. In a massive pool 13 million $ win pool, that was some sharp or strong value players , computer groups getting involved.

                                              Comment


                                              • #63
                                                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                                                Nothing better than watching the sharps and wiseguys turning a favorite into an underdog.

                                                Do they ever win those?


                                                Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                                                just think they see value, you'll probably have 9-10 starters in the gate....The 3 horses that just finished 3-4-5 today, Pletcher will have 2 or 3, Mott has Hofburg, O'Neill with Blended Citizen, Dorf with Instilled Regard. Enticed?
                                                Field will be a lot stronger than what he faced today.

                                                Comment


                                                • #64
                                                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                  I'll fade Justify in the Belmont. There will be a lot value on others.

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #65
                                                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                    Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                                                    Never.

                                                    Vino Roso's win in the Wood was the PERFECT setup for him.

                                                    He is VERY overrated.


                                                    Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                                                    Lol...you picked him in the Wood (I agreed)...so now he's overrated (KD bounce) & Wood set-up for him. Keep the comedy coming.
                                                    The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #66
                                                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                      Originally posted by Heim View Post
                                                      Lol...you picked him in the Wood (I agreed)...so now he's overrated (KD bounce) & Wood set-up for him. Keep the comedy coming.
                                                      Vino Roso was making a third start off the layoff(did NOT win either of the first two(2) starts) on a track he broke maiden on when he won the Wood Memorial.

                                                      If you don't think that was a good set up spot for him you don't know anything about handicapping horse racing.

                                                      Justify would POUND Vino Roso by twenty(20) lengths in the Belmont if he were to run.


                                                      Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #67
                                                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                        Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                                                        1-13 are the last 14 that have tried to win the triple crown after winning the 1st 2 legs. I'm going with the 13 and if he wins I'll just pay up.
                                                        small sample

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #68
                                                          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                          1 for 1 also

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #69
                                                            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                            Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                                                            Vino Roso was making a third start off the layoff(did NOT win either of the first two(2) starts) on a track he broke maiden on when he won the Wood Memorial.

                                                            If you don't think that was a good set up spot for him you don't know anything about handicapping horse racing.

                                                            Justify would POUND Vino Roso by twenty(20) lengths in the Belmont if he were to run.


                                                            Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
                                                            So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
                                                            The art of learning is learning who to ignore ~LeAnn Rimes

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #70
                                                              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                              Pharoah enjoyed a room service first half of race and it was a done deal from there.
                                                              this race will depend on a kamikaze speed horse being entered along with the bout 12 horses that will be entered. another mad dash to first quarter will not be comely.

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #71
                                                                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                Originally posted by Heim View Post
                                                                So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
                                                                Pretty much.

                                                                Do you not like betting the third start off the layoff angle(when a horse never won the first of second start) on a track where he/she broke maiden?

                                                                What more do you really need to know??

                                                                Some workout the horse had in the AM???


                                                                Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #72
                                                                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                  Originally posted by Heim View Post
                                                                  So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
                                                                  Then he ran a bad race his second start off the layoff setting up his EXPLOSION in his third start off the layoff on a track he broke maiden on first time out.

                                                                  Watch and learn, son.

                                                                  Watch and learn.




                                                                  Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #73
                                                                    Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                    Originally posted by ChiTownJoe View Post
                                                                    5 dimes has a price up for Belmont.

                                                                    Justify +110
                                                                    Field -140
                                                                    bookmaker has

                                                                    Will Justify win the Triple Crown ? Must Start Belmont for action


                                                                    Yes -115
                                                                    No -115
                                                                    The real women sport expert

                                                                    Comment


                                                                    • #74
                                                                      Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                      Originally posted by Heim View Post
                                                                      So that was your stand alone angle for the Wood?....a one & a half month lay-off for a Gr2/Gr3 horse? First race back in the Davis he ran a fairly big number...how do you explain that (Cap)ping guru?
                                                                      His race in the Tampa derby comes back as slow due to soft fractions

                                                                      His final fractions were fast going into the wood ..his final fraction numbers ( beyer style) going into wood were 104,106,103 and 97 in his debut

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #75
                                                                        Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                        Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                        I like RAYCABINO's thoughts on everything except horse racing.

                                                                        Now that I see the actual numbers I don't feel like such a misfit talking horses.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                        • #76
                                                                          Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                          Originally posted by raycabino View Post
                                                                          Now that I see the actual numbers I don't feel like such a misfit talking horses.

                                                                          Touché.

                                                                          I'm surprised for all the support against Justify.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • #77
                                                                            Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                            Originally posted by John Kelly View Post
                                                                            Touché.

                                                                            I'm surprised for all the support against Justify.
                                                                            Horses were closing in on him going 9.5 furlongs...how can they not pass him going 12 is what people are thinking....anyway it comes down to is he spent or not...its a guess...who really knows

                                                                            Comment


                                                                            • #78
                                                                              Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                              Originally posted by The Meatman View Post
                                                                              The only horse that I can see giving Justify any trouble in the Belmont based on having "extra rest" is Mendelssohn.

                                                                              And that's a longshot at best.


                                                                              Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato


                                                                              Audible CAP

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #79
                                                                                Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                                Originally posted by blueline View Post
                                                                                Horses were closing in on him going 9.5 furlongs...how can they not pass him going 12 is what people are thinking....anyway it comes down to is he spent or not...its a guess...who really knows
                                                                                Because Justify will run a different race going twelve(12) furlongs.

                                                                                These "supposed" closers NEVER show up in the Belmont.

                                                                                Other than Victory Gallop of course.


                                                                                Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #80
                                                                                  Re: Will Justify win the Triple Crown? (YES or NO)

                                                                                  Go eat some real man's food

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